NBA MVP Odds 2024: Jokic Closes as Prohibitive Favorite Over Doncic, SGA
With the NBA regular season behind us, Nikola Jokic closed the consensus betting favorite by the NBA MVP odds as he seeks his third award while leading the latest NBA odds.
If Nikola Jokic wins his third NBA MVP trophy this season, he would become just the ninth player in league history to ever pull that off. Sure enough, our best sports betting sites consider it a foregone conclusion that the Denver Nuggets center will make NBA history with his third MVP award in four seasons.
Jokic opened the NBA season as the MVP favorite and has done nothing to hurt his chances, leading the Nuggets near the top of the NBA championship odds amid another spectacular statistical campaign. He briefly fell behind reigning MVP winner Joel Embiid in late January, but the Philadelphia 76ers star's untimely injury left him short of the minimum 65 games to qualify.
While Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander held serve with Jokic early in the calendar year, and Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic pushed him late, neither seemingly did enough to halt Jokic's reign as the best player in the NBA.
Here's a look at the closing 2024 NBA MVP odds from our best NBA betting sites, along with the favorites at the end of the regular season:
NBA MVP odds 2024
(Odds as of April 16)
| Player | DraftKings | FanDuel | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | -4000 | -7000 | -6600 |
| Luka Doncic | +2000 | +3000 | +1600 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | +3000 | +3700 | +3000 |
Favorites to win 2024 NBA MVP
Nikola Jokic (-4000 via DraftKings)
After finishing second to Embiid in last year's MVP voting, Jokic came back with a vengeance this season and seems likely to reclaim his title as the best player in the NBA with his third trophy in four seasons.
Jokic opened the season as a slight favorite over Luka Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo at our best sports betting apps and did nothing but cement his place atop the MVP race this season. After Embiid's injury, Jokic became the runaway favorite with minus odds in February, and he never relinquished that strangehold on this awards market.
While Embiid (who isn't eligible to win) led the league in PER (34.1), Jokic wasn't far behind while sitting second at 31.0, which ranked first among qualified players. He also sits first in both player impact estimate and win shares, as has been the case in previous MVP campaigns.
The only knock on Jokic is he ranks merely 10th in points per game (26.1), but he makes up for that by being the only player in the league averaging at least 26 points per game, at least nine assists (9.0), and double-digit rebounds (12.4).
Luka Doncic (+3000 via FanDuel)
While Gilgeous-Alexander held the second spot in this race for virtually the entire second half of the season, Doncic worked his way into the runner-up spot with an inspired effort since the All-Star break.
Over his final 23 starts, Doncic averaged 33.2 points, 10.3 assists, and 10.1 rebounds while carrying the Mavericks to the No. 5 seed in the West. That was good enough to vault him into the second spot on the board, though it seems exceedingly unlikely that it'll be enough to unseat Jokic.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+3700 via FanDuel)
It looked like Gilgeous-Alexander might make this a real race for a while, but Jokic's odds shortened significantly over the final month of the season, while SGA took a step back in this market.
The Thunder star still ranked third in scoring (30.1 PPG), but he averaged "just" 27.5 points and 5.4 assists since the All-Star break - both well below his season averages. Even so, the Thunder still claimed the No. 1 seed in the West over Jokic and the reigning champion Nuggets.
That could be enough to earn SGA some token votes in the final ballot, and he'll almost certainly finish among the top three. But it seems too little, too late for his chances of upending Jokic for the top spot.
NBA MVP odds over time
After opening as the MVP favorite ahead of the 2023-24 season, Jokic's biggest competition throughout this season was Embiid. After the 76ers star went down with a knee injury, Jokic became the clear favorite.
With Embiid not being able to hit the games played requirement for the award, Gilgeous-Alexander took the second spot behind Jokic in the odds race for a few months, but Doncic assumed that role late in the year with a strong surge since the All-Star break. That knocked SGA to the third spot, though neither of those two seem likely to thwart Jokic in his quest for a third MVP trophy.
NBA MVP opening odds
Odds as of Oct. 24, 2023
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | +450 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | +600 |
| Luka Doncic | +600 |
| Jayson Tatum | +700 |
| Joel Embiid | +800 |
| Stephen Curry | +1400 |
| Kevin Durant | +1800 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | +1800 |
| Devin Booker | +2000 |
| Donovan Mitchell | +3000 |
| Anthony Edwards | +3300 |
| Damian Lillard | +3500 |
| Anthony Davis | +4000 |
| De'Aaron Fox | +5000 |
| LeBron James | +5000 |
| Trae Young | +5000 |
| Zion Williamson | +5000 |
| Jalen Brunson | +6600 |
| Domantas Sabonis | +8000 |
| Jimmy Butler | +8000 |
| Kawhi Leonard | +8000 |
| Victor Wembanyama | +8000 |
| Jamal Murray | +10000 |
How to read NBA MVP odds
Reading NBA MVP odds involves understanding the implied probability and potential payouts associated with each player's odds of winning the MVP award. NBA MVP odds are typically presented in American odds. These use plus and minus symbols to indicate underdogs and favorites, respectively. For instance, if a player's odds are +500, a $100 bet would result in a $500 profit if the player wins, while odds of -200 would mean that a $200 bet is required to win $100 in profit.
When reading NBA MVP odds, lower odds indicate that a player has a higher probability of winning the award, while higher odds suggest that a player is considered less likely to win. Bettors should consider factors such as a player's performance, team success, and narrative appeal when evaluating MVP odds.
It's also important to compare odds across different sportsbooks to identify the best value bets. Additionally, bettors should keep in mind that MVP odds can fluctuate throughout the season based on player performance, injuries, and other factors, so staying informed and monitoring odds changes can be crucial for making informed betting decisions.
Past NBA MVP winners
| Year | Name | Preseason odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | Joel Embiid | +600 |
| 2021-22 | Nikola Jokic | +1600 |
| 2020-21 | Nikola Jokic | +2500 |
| 2019-20 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | +210 |
| 2018-19 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | +475 |
| 2017-18 | James Harden | +1100 |
NBA MVP FAQs
Who is the NBA MVP favorite?
Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic closed as the clear betting favorite (-4000) heading into the final stretch of the NBA season, with Luka Doncic (+3000) dealing as the second choice across our best sportsbooks. Jokic's odds imply a 97.56% probability that he'll win his third NBA MVP award in four seasons.
Who won the NBA MVP last year?
Joel Embiid became the first Philadelphia 76er to win the award since Allen Iverson in 2000-2001.
When will the NBA MVP be decided?
Though the date for the 2024 award reveal hasn't been decided, the winner of last year's award was announced on May 2, 2023.
What is the NBA MVP trophy called?
The NBA MVP trophy was renamed as the Michael Jordan Trophy. It will be awarded annually to the NBA's most valuable player.
NBA betting odds pages
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