Originally Posted by
noober
After a bad day yesterday I am going to try to come back solid with some value plays and hopefully winners. So here are my plays for today:
Agnes Szavay -3 over Patty Schnyder at 1.901 (Pinnacle) 1.5 units
Probability of winning: ~ 58%
Agnes Szavay is the kind of players that I never back up as she is mentally very weak and doesn’t seem to care too much. However, when it comes to playing he home country tournament in Budapest she gives it all. I was actually able to see last year’s final, which was between the two same players. Patty didn’t look good at all while Szavay was very determined and took the title after losing the first set 6-2. This year Szavay has been a disappointment and her ranking dropped significantly, but now that she has to defend so many points she picked it up a lot. I watched her against Alize Cornet in the quarterfinals and she looked very sharp. Yesterday, she beat one of the best fighters on the WTA in three sets, which shows a lot of determination. On the other hand, Patty Schnyder has been a good fading material during the last year as she doesn’t seem to care a lot and obviously tanked some matches. I was very surprised to see her making the final here and beating some good players, but I don’t think she is capable of winning another title. I think she will retire very soon so this could be her last final. Besides the final in this same tournament last year, the two have played in two other occasions with Schnyder coming on top both of the times. However, one of the matches was a retirement at 2-5 and the other was a Fed Cup match played on carpet so those have little predictive value.
Timea Bacisnky and Tatiana Garbin over Medina Garrigues and Sorana Cirstea at 2.31 (Pinnacle) 1 unit
Probability of winning: ~ 45%
It’s very hard to predict those WTA doubles matches so a lot of times you find value in the plus money matches, especially having a superbreaker decide the match instead of a third set. Obviously, the best doubles player here is Medina Garrigues who was able to reach number 3 in the doubles ranking some time ago. She also played the semifinal in this year’s French Open. But Sorana Cirstea is relatively inexperienced doubles player and in my opinion she is the worse out of these four players. I like the team of Timea Bacisnky and Tatiana Garbin because they have played many times as a team in the past and obviously have more experience as a team. On the other hand, this is only the second tournament Medina Garrigues and Sorana Cirstea are playing together, but it’s important to note that they won the previous one. They won the title in Estoril couple of months ago but didn’t beat any good doubles team other than Peng/Zhang. Anyway, should be a close game.
Good luck for today.