1. #211
    noober
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    yesterday was a tough day: 0-4 for -4 units
    so far: 29-38 for +.05 units
    Points Awarded:

    Brian891 gave noober 18 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  2. #212
    Brian891
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    I sent u some points noober even tho im not sure if u use em. Wanted to thank you. I parlayed makarova and olaru ml based on your writeups because bookmaker didnt have handicap odds before i went to bed. Olaru won, and her match was so early, i was able to hedge the parlay and make a 40 dollar profit regardless of who won! Thanks again for all your contributions to this forum! It felt so good to know i was going to profit regardless of outcome. it was like a solar eclipse!

  3. #213
    noober
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brian891 View Post
    I sent u some points noober even tho im not sure if u use em. Wanted to thank you. I parlayed makarova and olaru ml based on your writeups because bookmaker didnt have handicap odds before i went to bed. Olaru won, and her match was so early, i was able to hedge the parlay and make a 40 dollar profit regardless of who won! Thanks again for all your contributions to this forum! It felt so good to know i was going to profit regardless of outcome. it was like a solar eclipse!
    Thanks for the points. Nice to hear you made a profit in a day where my predictions were bad.

  4. #214
    noober
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    Plays for today:

    Eduardo Schwank -2 over Tobias Kamke at 1.971 (Pinnacle) 1 unit
    Probability of winning: ~ 58.5%

    I just don’t see a reason why these two are priced at close to even odds when the talent and skills the two have are at a complete different level. Kamke is more of a challenger player and has very limited experience playing on the ATP tour. He just had a very good run at this year’s French Open and Wimbledon. He passed the quallies at both and made the third round on the grass and second on the dirt. He beat good players like Garcia Lopez and Seppi, but that’s about it. Last week he got back to the challenger tour and lost in the quarterfinal to Gremelmayer in two easy sets. Schwank, on the other hand, is on a five game losing streak but if you look at it closely it doesn’t mean much. Two of these losses were on grass (his worst surface), one was a retirement, another was to Davydenko in Davis Cup, and last week he lost to Chela, who is one of the best on clay. Kamke will have the home court advantage but I don’t think it will be enough to overcome the Argentine. I am playing the handicap, because I think 2 games is not that much and most likely Schwank wins in two sets. However, if you want to play it safe he is at 1.8 on the moneyline.

    Tomy Robredo -2 over Potito Starace at 1.943 (Pinnacle) 1 unit
    Probability of winning: ~ 58.5%

    Once again, I see two players at a completely different level priced close to even odds. Robredo is a world class player with wins over all the top players and huge experience on clay courts. Last week, he won against a top 10 player – Fernando Verdasco. Then, he got destroyed by the eventual champion Nicolas Almagto in the semifinal. Starace also plays his best tennis on clay and it’s undeniable that he had a very good summer season. However, most of his wins were on the challenger tour where the competition is much weaker. It’s important to note that the two have met 5 times in the past and Robredo have won all of the times. So there is no reason not to lay the Italian at the current odds. Again, I am playing the handicap as I strongly believe Robredo wins in two sets. The moneyline here is at 1.752.

    Masha Zec Peskiric over Anastasia Yakimova at 2.68 (Pinnacle) 1 unit
    Probability of winning: ~ 45%

    Zec Peskiric has been playing well as of late and this is her favorite tournament so she will definitely try her best to win this one. Last week, she got a very good win over Para Santonja and then played a very even match against Romina Oprandi. She is ranked around 140 but so is her opponent. Neither has much experience on the WTA tour and so this should be a toss up. Yakimova has relatively more experience, but the home court advantage should even it up.

    Good Luck.

  5. #215
    noober
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    Interesting that the odds on Zec Peskiric are rising to almost 3. Could be something fishy because there is no way Yakimova is such a big fav against her.

  6. #216
    noober
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    Quote Originally Posted by noober View Post
    Plays for today:

    Eduardo Schwank -2 over Tobias Kamke at 1.971 (Pinnacle) 1 unit
    Probability of winning: ~ 58.5%

    I just don’t see a reason why these two are priced at close to even odds when the talent and skills the two have are at a complete different level. Kamke is more of a challenger player and has very limited experience playing on the ATP tour. He just had a very good run at this year’s French Open and Wimbledon. He passed the quallies at both and made the third round on the grass and second on the dirt. He beat good players like Garcia Lopez and Seppi, but that’s about it. Last week he got back to the challenger tour and lost in the quarterfinal to Gremelmayer in two easy sets. Schwank, on the other hand, is on a five game losing streak but if you look at it closely it doesn’t mean much. Two of these losses were on grass (his worst surface), one was a retirement, another was to Davydenko in Davis Cup, and last week he lost to Chela, who is one of the best on clay. Kamke will have the home court advantage but I don’t think it will be enough to overcome the Argentine. I am playing the handicap, because I think 2 games is not that much and most likely Schwank wins in two sets. However, if you want to play it safe he is at 1.8 on the moneyline.

    Tomy Robredo -2 over Potito Starace at 1.943 (Pinnacle) 1 unit
    Probability of winning: ~ 58.5%

    Once again, I see two players at a completely different level priced close to even odds. Robredo is a world class player with wins over all the top players and huge experience on clay courts. Last week, he won against a top 10 player – Fernando Verdasco. Then, he got destroyed by the eventual champion Nicolas Almagto in the semifinal. Starace also plays his best tennis on clay and it’s undeniable that he had a very good summer season. However, most of his wins were on the challenger tour where the competition is much weaker. It’s important to note that the two have met 5 times in the past and Robredo have won all of the times. So there is no reason not to lay the Italian at the current odds. Again, I am playing the handicap as I strongly believe Robredo wins in two sets. The moneyline here is at 1.752.

    Masha Zec Peskiric over Anastasia Yakimova at 2.68 (Pinnacle) 1 unit
    Probability of winning: ~ 45%

    Zec Peskiric has been playing well as of late and this is her favorite tournament so she will definitely try her best to win this one. Last week, she got a very good win over Para Santonja and then played a very even match against Romina Oprandi. She is ranked around 140 but so is her opponent. Neither has much experience on the WTA tour and so this should be a toss up. Yakimova has relatively more experience, but the home court advantage should even it up.

    Good Luck.
    Schwanks covers.
    Robredo doesn't.
    Zec Pesciric loses.

    yesterday: 1-2 for -1.05 units
    so far: 30- 40 for -1 units

  7. #217
    Brian891
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    Sorry bout the rough days. U are an excellent resource for newbies with your detailed writeups and i thank you. Any leans this morning? Lookin for opinions on sevastova, montanes, bellucci, seppi, and petzschner, or anyone else u think looks appealing. thanks again noober for yesterdays writeups!

  8. #218
    noober
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    Only one play today:

    Hanescu -2.5 over Reister at 1.98 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

    Probability: ~ 56%

    Hanescu is a great clay courter and should have no trouble against an average German who prefers fast surfaces.

  9. #219
    noober
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    Quote Originally Posted by noober View Post
    Only one play today:

    Hanescu -2.5 over Reister at 1.98 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

    Probability: ~ 56%

    Hanescu is a great clay courter and should have no trouble against an average German who prefers fast surfaces.
    record: 30- 41 for -2 units

  10. #220
    noober
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    Today:

    Florian Mayer over Golubev at 1.709 (Pinnacle) 1.5 units

  11. #221
    JW Cash
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    ...noober, keep the faith, baby.............

  12. #222
    Brian891
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    JW your thread was awesome. Why did u stop posting?

  13. #223
    JW Cash
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brian891 View Post
    JW your thread was awesome. Why did u stop posting?


    Thanks Brian.....I appreciate it.....

    At least, someone noticed.....

  14. #224
    Brian891
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    U were on a roll! I tailed u to some decent money. If ur ever in greenville sc meal is on me! Any plays for today?

  15. #225
    noober
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    record: 30-42 for -3.5 units

    I am just taking the week off after going something like 3-12 in the last fifteen games. Will be back next week and hopefully hit the green soon.

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