Originally Posted by
noober
I didn’t have any plays for today as I didn’t identify matches with reasonable positive expected value. It seems that the books are pretty efficient when it comes to Grand Slams. Still, I think there are some good plays for tomorrow.
Angelique Kerber over Aravane Rezai at 7.84 (Betfair, with 5% commission included) 1 unit
Probability of winning: ~25%
This play has a huge positive expected value of 96% if my estimated probability of winning is correct. But given the odds, Kerber should win 12.57% of the time for you to break even so there is some good margin of safety. Here are the reasons why I think this is a very good play:
- Rezai had an amazing last week, winning against players like Venus Williams, Justine Henin and Jelena Jankovic. Thus, the public expects her to play to this level, while the reality is that most of the top players were saving energy for the French Open and didn’t show their best. Indeed, when Rezai is hot she can do a lot of damage, but usually she doesn’t get hot for long. Last year, she won the masters in Bali and then a series of average results followed.
- Rezai and Kerber played in the Australian Open this year and Kerber won 6-2 6-3 (that was their only meeting)
- Kerber’s style matches very well against ball bashers like Rezai. The French likes the ball in her strike zone but Kerber is capable of breaking her game with a mix of slices and high balls.
- After winning the title in Madrid last week, the French media has put a lot of pressure on Rezai to perform well in the French Open. She may crack under that pressure, especially when she is a big favorite.
Julien Benneteau over Leonardo Mayer at 2.39 (Pinnacle) 1 unit
Probability of winning: ~45%
The two have played three times with Leonardo Mayer coming on top twice. They recently met in Madrid, where Benneteau had the match under control but lost a tough three setter – 7-6, 5-7 4-6. As for recent form, I must admit that Mayer has performed better in the last two months, but that’s why we are able to get a good price on Benneteau. But comparing the two players over a longer period you can clearly see that the French has performed much better. This explains why Benneteau is ranked almost 20 spots higher than Mayer. Benneteau was even able to get a very prestigious win over Federer, so he knows that he can beat anyone on the tour if he plays well. Last week, Mayer won against Bellucci and Baghdatis, but the win against Bellucci doesn’t mean anything as it was an obvious tank from the Brazillian. Another factor to consider is the home court advantage. Benneteau usually does well in front of home crowd and has a history of doing well in the French Open. In 2006, he got to the quarterfinals and two years later he got to the third round.
Good luck.