I decided to start a thread for my tennis picks. I only bet tennis (with very rare exceptions I put a little on soccer) and have done very well since September, but I must admit I got lucky. I have achieved over 10000% return in a period of 6-7 months but then I lost 70% of it. It was done mostly on live betting and everything with Bet365. I definitely got lucky as I was using a lot the martingale system, but not always. So here is my analysis for tomorrow’s matches and my picks.
Zheng over Govortsova at 2.04 (pinnacle) 2 units
Probability of winning: ~ 55%
This match was scheduled for today but was postponed for tomorrow because of rain. When the odds came out, Govortsova was at 2.66 which indicate heavy betting on the Belarussian.
05/16 14:09 2.66 / 1.55
05/16 14:29 2.49 / 1.62
05/16 14:33 2.34 / 1.69
05/16 14:34 2.40 / 1.66
05/16 14:35 2.41 / 1.65
05/16 14:39 2.42 / 1.65
05/16 14:55 2.29 / 1.71
05/16 14:57 2.35 / 1.68
05/16 14:58 2.33 / 1.69
05/16 15:03 2.38 / 1.67
05/16 15:13 2.32 / 1.70
05/16 15:24 2.35 / 1.68
05/16 16:01 2.37 / 1.67
05/16 16:21 2.28 / 1.72
05/16 16:27 2.29 / 1.71
05/16 16:29 2.31 / 1.70
05/16 16:34 2.32 / 1.70
05/16 16:39 2.33 / 1.69
05/16 16:45 2.34 / 1.69
05/16 16:49 2.37 / 1.67
05/16 17:16 2.30 / 1.71
05/16 17:17 2.32 / 1.70
05/16 18:56 2.30 / 1.71
05/16 18:57 2.29 / 1.71
05/16 19:11 2.21 / 1.76
05/16 19:44 2.22 / 1.76
05/16 19:45 2.24 / 1.75
05/16 20:02 2.25 / 1.74
05/16 20:52 2.26 / 1.73
05/16 22:20 2.19 / 1.78
05/17 02:15 2.21 / 1.76
05/17 02:16 2.25 / 1.74
05/17 02:48 2.18 / 1.78
05/17 03:02 2.16 / 1.79
05/17 03:04 2.15 / 1.81
05/17 03:05 2.14 / 1.81
05/17 03:06 2.08 / 1.85
05/17 03:12 2.11 / 1.83
05/17 03:20 2.12 / 1.83
05/17 03:28 2.11 / 1.83
05/17 03:29 2.12 / 1.83
05/17 03:37 2.07 / 1.86
05/17 03:56 2.00 / 1.93
05/17 03:57 1.98 / 1.94
05/17 03:59 1.99 / 1.93
05/17 04:00 2.00 / 1.93
05/17 04:01 2.01 / 1.92
05/17 04:07 2.02 / 1.91
05/17 04:18 2.00 / 1.93
05/17 04:35 2.01 / 1.92
05/17 04:44 2.02 / 1.91
05/17 05:10 2.00 / 1.93
05/17 05:40 2.01 / 1.92
05/17 05:45 2.02 / 1.91
05/17 05:48 2.04 / 1.89
05/17 06:03 1.99 / 1.93
05/17 06:40 2.00 / 1.93
05/17 07:01 1.96 / 1.96
05/17 07:07 1.97 / 1.95
05/17 07:39 1.96 / 1.96
05/17 12:58 1.95 / 1.97
05/17 13:09 1.93 / 2.00
05/17 13:22 1.91 / 2.02
05/17 13:27 1.88 / 2.04
05/17 14:24 1.87 / 2.06
05/17 14:29 1.88 / 2.04
05/17 15:08 1.89 / 2.04
05/17 15:12 1.88 / 2.04
05/17 15:49 1.88 / 2.05
05/17 16:50 1.88 / 2.04
While the initial betting on Govortsova was probably done by sharp players (definitely value on Govortsova at the initial odds) I believe steamers are responsible for such a big price drop. Anyway, I see Zheng as the superior player, who happened to have two bad losses at the beginning of the season. While clay is definitely not her best surface, I wouldn’t consider her a bad clay courter. She had some good wins last year and took Safina to a third set tiebreaker in Rome when Safina was close to unbeatable on that surface. Govortsova and Zheng have met only once and that happened last year in the first round of the same tournament. Zheng won a hard three set battle, which is not surprising as she is mentally much stronger. Govortsova is very up and down and can have amazing days as well as complete disasters. Her record is not good against counterpunchers and I don’t see a reason why not to take Zheng at that price. Another factor to consider for tomorrow is the wet conditions. It has rained a lot today, and tomorrow will be no difference. Rainy conditions make the courts much slower and the balls much heavier which benefits defensive players.
Rybarikova over Oudin at 3.04 (pinnacle) 1 unit
Probability of winning: ~40%
Rybarikova is a very good player with wins over some of the top players, but has done very poorly recently. She plays better on hard courts, where her serve is a weapon, but handles clay fairly well. Oudin is extremely inconsistent and backing her at 1.45 is not smart. If she plays close to her best she will win against Rybarikova, but that doesn’t happen very often. I have Oudin in my list of overrated players and the reason for that is that her ranking is based mainly on 3 good tournaments. If it wasn’t for Wimbledon and US Open last year, her ranking would have been similar to Rybarikova’s. I don’t think the rainy conditions will benefit any of the players as both are fairly aggressive. I must say that Oudin’s backhand slice is going to be pretty effective though.
Good luck if you tail my picks.