[Lightning]

Alrighty. That wraps up Wimbledon. I hope you've gained a bit of insight and/or made a bit of money off my picks. If you combine my futures and my daily picks, I finished with a gain of +6.08 units.

[maletaja]

how do u keep an eye on challenger tournaments? In my opinion market should be more inefficient, because its niche market

[Lightning]

how do u keep an eye on challenger tournaments? In my opinion market should be more inefficient, because its niche market

I just follow them all year round, extensively. When the games are live, I follow them. I check the scores and try and get point by point, if I can. I try to figure out motivation etc, because that's important. You eventually figure out little quirks, like that rankings often mean nothing, and that home ground advantage is very, very real. Highlights are hard to come by, but often if they've played in a grand slam at one time or another, there will be highlights of that match on youtube for me to suss game styles etc.

And also, after a while, you get into a rhythm, with patterns. Guys who are in form will often dominate for 5-15 matches and then fade away for three months, and another guy will come into form for 5-15 matches. You learn who the more consistent guys are, and who are the flashes in the pan.

[Lightning]

ATP BASTAD

- Isak Arvidsson +5.5 games - $2 - HALF STAKE
- Karen Khachanov -2.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE

ATP HAMBURG

- Gerard Melzer +2.5 games - $2 - HALF STAKE
- Kicker -2.5 games - $1.8 - HALF STAKE
- Satral +4.5 games - $2.1 - ONE STAKE


ATP NEWPORT

- Dudi Sela to WIN - $1.8 - ONE STAKE

WTA BUCHAREST QUALIFICATION

- Shinikova to WIN x Kostova to WIN - $3 - HALF STAKE
- Tomova to WIN - $1.7 - ONE STAKE

Cheers!

[coolguy73739]

Challenger events are the TOUGHEST to predict, hard to read the pattern..fav or underdog--winning is random..
Not the right even to bet on, and therefore best avoided.

[cryptocap]

^challenger is only difficult because of the lack of accessible information...but all tennis rules usually apply to some extent...ive never bet it and probably never will...too much money to be made elsewhere to take a risk on some borderline premier professional athletes

[Lightning]

Challenger events are the TOUGHEST to predict, hard to read the pattern..fav or underdog--winning is random..
Not the right even to bet on, and therefore best avoided.

I disagree to a degree - it's certainly not random, although it sometimes feels that way. There are usually reasons for it. THere are also patterns that you can use to predict.

I agree that they would be tougher than main level events, but that's what makes it fun haha

[Lightning]

I'm fresh off a +1.3 unit profit overnight, so keen to push on.

I went through all the tournaments tonight and came up with a few picks. A few people might get annoyed that I post 10+ picks sometimes, but my style is to look at value. If I find value, I'm not going to leave it out. Some days there might be 4 picks, and others, 15.

ATP BASTAD

- Zeballos x Soderlund - $1.9 - HALF STAKE
- Laaksonen +4.5 games - $2.10 - HALF STAKE
- Brown -3.5 games - $1.8 - ONE STAKE
- Ymer to WIN - $1.9 (PINNACLE) - ONE STAKE

ATP HAMBURG

- Youzhny x Kohlscreiber x Zverev - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
- Gimeno-Traver +3.5 games - $1.9 (PINNACLE) - HALF STAKE

ATP NEWPORT

- Przysiezny/Groth OVER 23.5 games x Sugita to WIN - $2.3 - HALF STAKE
- Mannarino -4 games - $1.8 (PINNACLE) - TWO STAKES


WTA BUCHAREST

- Hercog x Siegemund x Niculescu - $2.3 - HALF STAKE
- Shinikova +4.5 games - $1.9 (PINNACLE) - HALF STAKE
- Kostova to WIN - $2.1 - HALF STAKE
- Bonaventure Total games UNDER 8.5 - $1.8 (SPORTSBET) - ONE STAKE

WTA GSTAAD

- Erakovic +4.5 games - $1.9 (PINNACLE) - ONE STAKE

CHALLENGER WINNIPEG

- Felix Auger-Aliassime to WIN - $2.8 - ONE STAKE

MULTI

- Kamke x Polansky x Millot - $2.5 - ONE STAKE (Challenger Poznan, Challenger Winnipeg, Challenger Winnipeg)

Cheers!

[maletaja]

why do u do multibet? Why not try big bet like 1.3 odds when u see value. Usually there are not edge in 1.3 bets
Second question is retiring issues. How your multibet works then?

Another topic is that i see lots of games in challanger circuits like 60 06 60. These games show that there are no dominance and practically no way to predict it. When u predict h2h win and your favourite guy loses 6/1 6/1 then its about analyses

[Lightning]

why do u do multibet? Why not try big bet like 1.3 odds when u see value. Usually there are not edge in 1.3 bets
Second question is retiring issues. How your multibet works then?

Another topic is that i see lots of games in challanger circuits like 60 06 60. These games show that there are no dominance and practically no way to predict it. When u predict h2h win and your favourite guy loses 6/1 6/1 then its about analyses

I do multi bets when one player by themselves is not enough to warrant a bet. I could put one unit on a guy that's like $1.30, but what's the point? I could, however, combine the two guys I like at $1.30 to make $1.70ish and put a unit on that. Less messy as well.

If one retires, the odds from that leg are void (assuming it's first set).

Re. Challengers... very few games are donuts all the way through. Like any tennis game, there are momentum swings.

[Lightning]

ATP BASTAD

- Marcel Granollers -3.5 games - $2 (PINNACLE) - TWO STAKES

ATP NEWPORT

- Dudi Sela to WIN - $1.9 - HALF STAKE
- Frank Dancevic +2.5 games - $2.1 - ONE STAKE

WTA BUCHAREST

- Buyucackay to WIN - $1.7 - ONE STAKE

CHALLENGER POZNAN (POLAND)

- Radu Albot 2-0 - $1.9 - HALF STAKE

MULTI

- Kohlscreiber x Johnson x Parmentier - $1.7 - ONE UNIT (Hamburg, Newport, Bucharest)

Cheers!

[Conqueror]

Thanks for keeping things going!
BOL with your plays!

[Jeff_Black]

What's the take on dancevic? Not really a player I follow a lot or bet on

[Lightning]

What's the take on dancevic? Not really a player I follow a lot or bet on

More a fade on Karlovic to be completely honest... the guy is fading. Most guys can hold their serve fairly easily against him, and Dancevic has been playing well and isn't a mug... would've gone overs but was even afraid Dancevic could have broken him. Will have the home support as well.

[Lightning]

And you know that Karlovic isn't going to smash someone 6-2, so the handicap is never going to be unachievable

[Lightning]

Thanks for keeping things going!
BOL with your plays!

Thanks mate. In an ideal world I would like to write up my plays every day but constraints of life prevent me from doing so. Appreciate the support nonetheless.

[cryptocap]

Gimme Ivo to win 2-0 at 1.9

[Lightning]

Gimme Ivo to win 2-0 at 1.9

Any reasoning, or you just fading me to be difficult haha?

[cryptocap]

This is a rivalry with balkan roots...they both put a little more into their shots because of this and I think that is exactly what Ivo needs to defend his points

Karlovic hit 32 aces when he lost in wimbledon in 2014 but struggled on his 2nd serve and return game...due to this being a little more than a tennis match...

Hes given me a lot over the years I think he can win in straight but probly about 55-65 percent possibility

[Lightning]

This is a rivalry with balkan roots...they both put a little more into their shots because of this and I think that is exactly what Ivo needs to defend his points

Karlovic hit 32 aces when he lost in wimbledon in 2014 but struggled on his 2nd serve and return game...due to this being a little more than a tennis match...

Hes given me a lot over the years I think he can win in straight but probly about 55-65 percent possibility

Pretty good reasoning, but you highlighted an important point - he lost in wimbledon in 2014! 2014 is two years ago and he's arguably a lot worse. His movement is not as good, and although his first serve is still lethal when he gets it in, his groundstrokes are lacking a bit as well. He almost seems fairly happy to just sit back and wait for his opponent to make mistakes, and if they don't, then try during the tiebreak. I never see him put any real passion into it.

The beauty of this is that you and I could both be right - if Karlovic wins in straights, there is a likelihood that it'll be two tiebreaks and that's all I need.

[cryptocap]

Agreed!

What do we make of this though?...Odds on Dan are plummeting 3.50+ to 3.10 and Karlovic is becoming even more of a dog from 1.20s to 1.30+

I doubt public money is enough to sway this at an ATP 250...could be sharps??

[Lightning]

I just think that it's possibly a market correction - a few people have realised that Dancevic is underpriced and possibly hit him.

You're right though - most people bet tennis only when it's a grand slam or 1000 event. 250 isn't likely to attract public money, like you said. Interesting.

[jtoler]

Agreed!

What do we make of this though?...Odds on Dan are plummeting 3.50+ to 3.10 and Karlovic is becoming even more of a dog from 1.20s to 1.30+

I doubt public money is enough to sway this at an ATP 250...could be sharps??

What makes you think Ivo is an automatic here, he is seeming to fade and not his usual self. He's only 8-13 this year and Dan has bettered him h2h thus far. +2.5 and/or ml seems the way to go. Who would lay 3/1 on Ivo at this point.

[cryptocap]

Far from auto! Its just my angle......and it might be wrong ...flip the coin

[Lightning]

What makes you think Ivo is an automatic here, he is seeming to fade and not his usual self. He's only 8-13 this year and Dan has bettered him h2h thus far. +2.5 and/or ml seems the way to go. Who would lay 3/1 on Ivo at this point.

To be fair to him, Ivo *should* win, but as we all know, rarely does anyone who *should* win, actually win (case in point, marcel f*cking granollers against Bagnis earlier today). My play was based on (like you said) fading Ivo. His 2-0 is based on the fact that Ivo is the better player (although I still don't know how he got to top 20-30) and should triumph. Both have merit

[jtoler]

Far from auto! Its just my angle......and it might be wrong ...flip the coin

Hope the good doctor wins 7-6 7-6, Im gonna nibble on Dan @+2.5.

[cryptocap]

Goodluck everyone...very small stake on this anyways but rdy to enjoy the match!

[cryptocap]

lol 3-0 in like 5 minutes...boy

[juicername]

Hope the good doctor wins 7-6 7-6, Im gonna nibble on Dan @+2.5.

I joined you on that one, cheers.

[Lightning]

Last night was slightly up and down but considering I lost two stakes in one play, I did okay to pull back the losses. To remind you all, before I started this week, I was about +17 units for the year. So even though this week is a minor loss, I've been in these positions before (case in point, Wimbledon THIS year) and pulled it back. It's all long term.

ATP BASTAD

- Taro Daniel to WIN - $1.9 - HALF STAKE
- Brown/Bedene OVER 22.5 - $1.9 - HALF STAKE - (POSTED THIS TOO LATE BUT IT WAS GOING TO BE A PLAY)

The half stakes reflect the confidence level with this one. Daniel impressed me with a thumping win over Horatio Zeballos in the first round, but Zeballos has played A LOT of tennis recently and I'm wondering if the poor performance is due to tiredness. Regardless, I'm prepared to give him another go against Elias, who is known for competing more on the challenger circuit than the ATP, like Daniel does.

Brown plays an exciting brand of tennis, and we scored on his line in his last match against Munoz De La Nava. +2.5 or +3 is a really awkward line, in that I don't want to lay it and I don't want to back it. I think there is some value in the overs though, because Bedene is a handy clay player on the challenger circuit, and Brown is playing a good game at the moment. I expect Bedene to win, but Brown should keep it close.

ATP HAMBURG

- Garcia-Lopez -4.5 games - $1.72 - ONE STAKE
- Wessels/Klizan UNDER 19.5 - $1.72 (WILLIAM HILL) - TWO STAKES
- Medvedev to WIN - $1.9 - TWO STAKES

The first two plays are taking good players to beat average ones. Zemlja is a challenger player, plain and simple. He occasionally shows flashes of birlliance, but he's solid and not much else. GL is a much more solid player and isn't the sort of guy to take a match easy, because he's hovering around 50 on the rankings himself.

Verrryyyyy nice line on the Wessels match, and that's why I'm hitting it with two stakes. Klizan should be romping this one in, and the bookies clearly think that as well, with lines like -6.5 and under 17.5 on some sites.

Up until about two months ago, I had Medvedev pegged as a fairly average player. I've now changed my mind. He's gone from competing with guys on the challenger tour to BEATING guys on the challenger tour to competing with guys on the ATP tour and now BEATING guys on the ATP tour. He's won four of his last five, seven of his last ten and 10 of his last 14 on clay. He's already BEATEN GT this year, in straight sets. I think the books are getting swayed by the fact that GT beated Paire, but I watched that match and the reason he won was because Paire probably hit about 50 unforced errors per set.



ATP NEWPORT

- Marco Chiudinelli +3 games - $1.9 (PINNACLE) - HALF STAKE
- Mannarino -2.5 games - $2 - TWO STAKES

Not as confident about Chiudinelli as I was about Dancevic, but the thought process is the same.

Mannarino smashed Groth 6-2 6-2 a few weeks ago, and has been hugely impressive on grass this year. I'm backing him to keep up the form.

WTA BUCHAREST

- Errani -4 games - $1.9 - HALF STAKE

Apart from a few matches here and there, Errani has largely had a let down of a year. BUT, last year she made the final here. That means she has ranking points to defend, and quite a lot of them. Thus, if there was ever a time for her to stand up, it'd be now.

WTA GSTAAD

- Bacsinsky -5.5 games - $1.83 - ONE STAKE

Not a lot to say here - home country, favourite surface and average opponent. Hoping she lives up to her billing.

CHALLENGER POZNAN

- Geens/Garin OVER 19.5 games - $2 - HALF STAKE

Kamke is a really earnest player. He's a guy that sticks around the baseline, and thus cuts your time off with the returns. He's one of my go to guys, and Geens beat him. That impressed me quite a bit, and so even though Garin is in form, I'm going to take the risk of the overs and back in Geens' form.

[Lightning]

to clarify the brown/bedene one, I will NOT be including it in my records but i'd written the blurb when it started so I may as well leave it to see if I was right or not.

[Chaz22]

nice write-up. I agree on Taro Daniel, GG Lopez, Medvedev and Chiudinelli....

I slightly disagree on Klizan as I think he has yet to recover his best days form and Local German may put up his game....but under can still happen....
I consider taking + 6 games.

And I think Mannarino will loose today just because it's grass and Groth has a little revenge spot. I also believe Mannarino is slowly drifting away from his superb form....at least it showed against Duckworth where he barely got through.

Ladies and challengers I dont follow.

So GL!

[coolguy73739]

Nice analysis with your picks.. it seems you put lot of heart and mind into it..
Daniel doesn't seem to be the obvious choice as a winner imo.. Elias has had a good run on clay like Mestre and Turin Challengers to name a few.. Nothing flashy abt Daniel though apart from the fact that he beat the man in form Zabellos ..

[Chaz22]

wow, was I wrong on picking against Klizan....

[Lightning]

nice write-up. I agree on Taro Daniel, GG Lopez, Medvedev and Chiudinelli....

I slightly disagree on Klizan as I think he has yet to recover his best days form and Local German may put up his game....but under can still happen....
I consider taking + 6 games.

And I think Mannarino will loose today just because it's grass and Groth has a little revenge spot. I also believe Mannarino is slowly drifting away from his superb form....at least it showed against Duckworth where he barely got through.

Ladies and challengers I dont follow.

So GL!

Thanks for the feedback!

It's a little hard to respond to Klizan now, so I won't haha.

Yes, Mannarino got taken to a third set tiebreak, but he was up 5-2 in the last set. If he held serve, he would have pushed his -4 line. I think he'll have the mental advantage, but it is possible Groth will be fired up.