Lightning tennis thread

[Lightning]

ATP STUTTGART

- Denis Istomin to WIN - $2.8 - ONE STAKE
- Kohlscreiber x Lopez x Fritz - $2.1 - ONE STAKE
- Millman -2 games - $1.9 (PINNACLE) - ONE STAKE

ATP s'Hertogenbosch

- Muller x Dodig - $2 - TWO STAKES
- Pospisil to WIN - $1.90 - ONE STAKE
- Seppi 2-0 x Medvedev to WIN - $4.6 - HALF STAKE

WTA s'Hertogenbosch

- Bencic x Flipkens - $1.7 - ONE STAKE
- Galfi to WIN - $2.20 - HALF STAKE

WTA Nottingham

- Moore to WIN - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
- Diyas/Wickmayer OVER 21.5 games - $1.72 - ONE STAKE

CHALLENGER CALTANISSETTA

- Lorenzi x Lama x Ymer
- Djere/Volandri OVER 20.5 - $1.8 (BET365) - ONE STAKE

CHALLENGER LYON

- Paul x Lamasine - ONE STAKE - $2.4
- Lestienne/Berlocq OVER 19.5 - $1.8 - ONE STAKE

CHALLENGER SURBITON

- Duckworth x Brown x Evans - $1.82 - ONE STAKE
- Thompson to WIN - $2.1 - HALF STAKE

Cheers!

[gorwin068]

ATP STUTTGART

- Denis Istomin to WIN - $2.8 - ONE STAKE
- Kohlscreiber x Lopez x Fritz - $2.1 - ONE STAKE
- Millman -2 games - $1.9 (PINNACLE) - ONE STAKE

ATP s'Hertogenbosch

- Muller x Dodig - $2 - TWO STAKES
- Pospisil to WIN - $1.90 - ONE STAKE
- Seppi 2-0 x Medvedev to WIN - $4.6 - HALF STAKE

WTA s'Hertogenbosch

- Bencic x Flipkens - $1.7 - ONE STAKE
- Galfi to WIN - $2.20 - HALF STAKE

WTA Nottingham

- Moore to WIN - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
- Diyas/Wickmayer OVER 21.5 games - $1.72 - ONE STAKE

CHALLENGER CALTANISSETTA

- Lorenzi x Lama x Ymer
- Djere/Volandri OVER 20.5 - $1.8 (BET365) - ONE STAKE

CHALLENGER LYON

- Paul x Lamasine - ONE STAKE - $2.4
- Lestienne/Berlocq OVER 19.5 - $1.8 - ONE STAKE

CHALLENGER SURBITON

- Duckworth x Brown x Evans - $1.82 - ONE STAKE
- Thompson to WIN - $2.1 - HALF STAKE

Cheers!

Wtf Dodig, won 2nd set 6-1 and then bagel 0-6 in final set

[Lightning]

[ATTACH]90342[/ATTACH]
Wtf Dodig, won 2nd set 6-1 and then bagel 0-6 in final set

Believe me... I know haha.

It's just not going my way to the point of being laughable atm. Berlocq game finishing on 19, half a game shy, almost made me flip because that's about 8 plays I've lost by half a game. I don't know how a decent serve on grass can't even win a game in the last set after smashing him in the set before.

[Lightning]

Then Millman, a guy with a game that's suited to grass, losing to a guy that has traditionally been so terrible on grass. Pospisil will probably lose to a clay player. The ones I didn't include - Buyukakcay first set handicap and Kudla on the line, are smashing it in.

[Lightning]

ATP s'Hertogenbosch

- Tomic -3 games - $1.9 (PINNACLE) - TWO STAKES

STUTTGART

- Cilic x Kohlscreiber - $1.9 - ONE STAKE

WTA NOTTINGHAM

- Hsieh - $2.8 - HALF STAKE

CHALLENGER MOSCOW

- Shapovalov to WIN - $2.50 - ONE STAKE

CHALLENGER LYON
- Monteiro x Darcis - $1.70 - ONE STAKE
- McGee to WIN - $2.2 - HALF STAKE

CHALLENGER PRAGUE

- Fuscovics x Rosol - $2.9 - HALF STAKE

Cheers!

[Lightning]

ATP s'Hertogenbosch

- Medvedev +3.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
- Karlovic/Sijsling OVER 24.5 games - $1.83 - HALF STAKE

MULTI

- Garcia-Lopez +2.5 games (ATP s'Hertogenbosch) x Groth/Thiem OVER 24.5 (ATP Stuttgart) - $3.6 - HALF STAKE

ATP Stuttgart

Youzhny to WIN - $1.76 (PINNACLE) - ONE STAKE

WTA Nottingham

- Moore to WIN - $3.2 - HALF STAKE

CHALLENGER Caltalnissetta

- Lama x Ymer - $2.2 - ONE STAKE
- Lorenzi x Tepevac - $2.2 - ONE STAKE

CHALLENGER Prague

- Rosol to WIN - $1.7 - ONE STAKE

CHALLENGER Lyon

- Lamasine x Paul - $2.5 - HALF STAKE

CHALLENGER Surbiton

- Thompson x Evans x BRown - $2.6 - ONE STAKE

[Jeff_Black]

I was looking at overs for Ivo and Sijsling but saw 26 so didn't play it
24 is tempting though

[Jsnep7]

Nice to see a tennis tipster for a change. YTD stats? And how did you fare in recent seasons?

[Lightning]

I was looking at overs for Ivo and Sijsling but saw 26 so didn't play it
24 is tempting though

Found it on sportsbet.com.au. Sometimes all the books have the same/similar lines, today they varied a little for this game. I wouldn't have taken 26 either.

[Lightning]

Nice to see a tennis tipster for a change. YTD stats? And how did you fare in recent seasons?

I keep records mate, but I haven't updated them since the start of the French Open due to university work. When I get a decent amount of time with no assignments pending, I'll sit down and bang them all out and update it here.

[Lightning]

Slightly disappointing with Medvedev, don't really rate Mannarino but he seems to be in a bit of a groove at the moment. Could be a case of a challenger level player just being overwhelmed.

[Lightning]

TENNIS TIPS
Didn't do a huge amount of study/writing up for these because of my futures study, but I'm taking the tried and trusted method of backing the player (either straight or on the line) who has played matches on grass this year, against those who haven't. Like clay, grass is a different surface, and takes a bit of time to adjust. Because of this, half stakes for all.

ATP HALLE - ALL HALF STAKE

- Pouille +5.5 games - $1.83
- Becker to WIN - $1.91

ATP LONDON - ALL HALF STAKE

- Dimitrov -4 games (PINNACLE) - $1.99
- Johnson +4.5 games - $1.9

WTA BIRMINGHAM - ALL HALF STAKE

- Van Uytvanck to WIN - $1.7
- Heather Watson to WIN (PINNACLE) - $1.8
- Broady +4 games - (PINNACLE) - $2
- Ostapenko +2.5 games - $1.83

Cheers!

[Lightning]

Like last night, I'm going to be fading the guys who are playing their first match on grass, plus a couple of over/unders.

ATP HALLE - ALL HALF STAKE

- Karlovic x Mayer x Brown - $1.95
- Jaziri to WIN - $2.34
- Troicki to WIN - $2
- Baghdatis +3.5 games - $1.8 (PINNACLE)

ATP LONDON - ALL HALF STAKE

- Querrey to WIN - $1.83
- Bedene to WIN - $1.7
- Del Potro x Simon - $1.95
- Vesely +2 games - $2 (PINNACLE)
- Mahut +4.5 games - $1.8 (PINNACLE)

WTA BIRMINGHAM - ALL HALF STAKE

- Konta x Pironkova x Bencic - $2.25
- Pliskova -2.5 games - $1.9
- Linette +3.5 games - $2
- Vandegwhe +4 games - $1.85 (PINNACLE)

WTA MALLORCA - ALL HALF STAKE

- Cirstea to WIN - $1.9
- Mladenovic to WIN - $1.9
- Flipkens +5.5 games - $1.9
- Parmentier +5.5 games - $1.8
- Puig x Bouchard - $2.4
- Jankovic x Mertens - $2.4

Cheers!

[Lightning]

My strategy is working at the moment, going 11/15 last night, with some still to go. Alas, since we're in the second round, most have played at least one match on grass.

MULTI
- Bouchard x Lisicki x Kohlscreiber x Thiem (first two are WTA Mallorca, second two are ATP Halle) - $2.4 - HALF STAKE
- Medvedev x Sakkari x Barty (Challenger Ilkley, ITF Szeged, ITF Ilkley) - $2 - ONE STAKE

CHALLENGER PERUGIA

- Volandri to WIN - $2.75 - HALF STAKE

ATP HALLE - ALL ONE STAKE

- Sugita +4 games (PINNACLE) - $2.05

Sugita has played five matches on grass this season, and earnt his way to the main draw of Halle through qualifying. He beat Basilashvili, Ito and most impressively, Fritz. Seppi, on the other hand, has played two on grass. He lost one rather convincingly to Mannarino, and beat Ferrer in the other. Ferrer has been in decline this year, however, so I'm not sure how seriously I can take that. Qualifiers often play with a greater passion because they had to earn their place, and Seppi is not in magical form at the moment. The pattern in the last week on grass has been to take the big games handicap, so I'll do so tonight at Halle.

- Brown +2.5 games (PINNACLE) - $1.85

People have been raving about how Baghdatis pulled off a miracle, or how he must've played out of his skin to beat Berdych. There's a pretty simple explanation: It was Berdych's first match on grass, and as I've said time and time again, it takes a while to adjust. If they met in the quarters, Berdych would've beaten him.

Brown is a genuine grass court specialist, and will have the home crowd behind him. He started off the tournament with a comfortable victory over Vinolas (a clay courter), but has been in great form on the challenger circuit. He won Manchester, and got eliminated by Jordan Thompson in the quarters of Surbiton. With the way Brown serves, I wouldn't be surprised to see two tiebreaks, and if the home crowd has any effect, Brown might win a set and/or the match.

- Becker/Zverev OVER 23 (PINNACLE) - $1.95

Becker has played six matches on grass this year: two in Manchester, one in s'Hertogenbosch and three in Halle. He lost 2 of his first three, but suddenly, in his home country, he's taken care of Istomin, Gulbis and Haase - three guys who you wouldn't normally think he'd beat easily. Zverev is also German, but it's only Zverev's secoind match on grass, and the adjustment period wouldn't have finished yet. I think Zverev wins, but look for Becker to keep it close.


-

[Lightning]

ATP LONDON

Murray vs. Bedene UNDER 19.5 games - $1.87 - HALF STAKE
Mathieu to WIN - $1.9 - HALF STAKE
Isner to WIN - $1.7 - ONE STAKE



MULTI

- Raonic 2-0 x Thiem x Agut - $2 - ONE STAKE



WTA BIRMINGHAM

- Vandeghwe x Kerber x Pironkova - $2.25 - HALF STAKE
- McHale/Vandeghwe OVER 21.5 - $2 - HALF STAKE

CHALLENGER ILKLEY

- Medvedev - $1.7 - ONE STAKE


CHALLENGER POPRAD

- Pavlasek/Klizan OVER 21.5 - $1.9 (PINNACLE)

[Lightning]

ADDING IN Isner 2-0 x Raonic/Vesely OVER 22.5 - $4.5 - half stake

[Lightning]

ATP HALLE

- Thiem/Kohlscreiber OVER 23.5 x Seppi -2.5 games - $3.8 - HALF STAKE

ATP LONDON

- Murray/Edmund OVER 19 - $1.9 (PINNACLE) - ONE STAKE
- Bernard Tomic to WIN - $1.9 (PINNACLE) - ONE STAKE

MULTI
- Darcis x Klizan - $1.9 - TWO STAKES (Challenger Blois & Challenger Poprad)

[Lightning]

Classic Klizan, robbing me of a four stake night. Frustrating when you nail everything but the players don't turn up.

ATP NOTTINGHAM QUALIFIERS

- Groth to WIN x Robert/Barton OVER 22.5 games - $2.60 (BET365) - HALF STAKE

Groth is a great grass court player because his game is suited to it. He has a phenomenal serve (when it goes in) and backs it up by coming into the net wherever possible. It doesn't work so much on clay and some hard courts, because good players have enough time to expose his (sometimes) clumsy movement and average approach shots, but grass is quick enough to hide that. Dancevic is not someone that is good enough to expose Groth, and he should be winning this fairly easily.

Barton has played three matches, winning one. Robert's played one, and it went to three sets most likely because of the adjustment period I commonly speak of. I think Robert wins this, but Barton has the added games on the surface, and a game that can spring some surprises. Going overs on grass is never a bad play, and I'm hoping Robert starts slow enough for Barton to get into a rhythm.

ATP NOTTINGHAM

- Kudla 2-0 - $1.7 - ONE STAKE

Donskoy has played 16 games on grass in his life - winning 6 of them at a percentage of 37.5%. It gets worse, because three of the wins were his first three games in 2011. If you take those out: 13 matches, 3 wins, 23%. He also hasn't played a game on grass this year.

Kudla, however, is the opposite. He's got a career winning percentage of 59.1% on the ATP tour on grass, compared to clay and hard with 22% and 28% respectively. When you look at the challenger tour, he's won 73% of his matches on grass, compared to 52% and 62%. This shows that his favourite surfaces are faster ones, and you don't get faster than grass. He's won 19 of his last 25 on grass, and his excellent record goes back further. Kudla should be winning this one with ease.

- Gabashvili x Fritz/Mannarino OVER 23.5 games - $5.9 - HALF STAKE

Gabashvili is value tonight in my opinion. There's not a lot in terms of records, but the level that Youzhny presented last week is over his usual one. Plus, Gabashvili has played this week, and Youzhny hasn't played since the 10th. To me, Gabashvili should be around $2.50, not $3.20.

Fritz/Mannarino is a standard grass play. Mannarino doesn't have a phenomenal serve but is playing at a great level lately. Fritz has played three on grass. He won against Martin, and lost to Federer and Sugita 2-1. Stats show 1-2, but he's played a bit better than that. Fritz has a good serve and plays an attacking game, and I think there should be at least one tiebreak.

ITF WOMEN ILKLEY

- Rodina to WIN - $1.9 - ONE STAKE

Sramkova has only played nine matches this year. Considering she's only played four matches on grass, winning all of them this tournament is a great achievement. To be fair, it's not like any of the players she's played are phenomenal, so I'm not sure the 4-0 record really tells the whole story.

Rodina's played seven matches on grass this year, winning six. Some of her victories are a little more impressive though, beating Galfi, Hogenkamp and Jankovic among others. I just think she's currently playing at a higher level, and is worth a stake.

MULTI

- Steve Darcis +2.5 games x Millot/Lu OVER 21.5 games -$3.3 (BET365) - HALF STAKE (Challengers Blois and Ilkley)

- Murray x Zverev - $1.85 - ONE STAKE

Despite how well Raonic is playing, Murray is just better. Playing in a final is another type of pressure as well. Have a look at what happened in Indian Wells final against Djokovic - Raonic got annihilated. Murray is not Djokovic, but my point is that Raonic can be a little mentally fragile in pressure situations, and Murray's got the experience. That's why I picked 2-0 in my tip below as well.

The same applies to Zverev. Credit to Mayer for getting to the final, but you wouldn't be wrong if you said he had a little bit of luck. His first round was Brian Baker, he got a walkover in the second against Nishikori, Seppi was his first good opponent but I'm not sure whether his head is in it half the time, and Thiem has played about 30 matches (slight exaggeration) in about 4 weeks and was a little tired. Short story: You can only beat what's in front of you, but it wasn't an all-conquering campaign.

Zverev had a slightly more rigorous journey to the final. There were no first match nerves as he confidently despatched Troicki. Becker could have been tricky and he was in a bad place in the first before Becker got an injury and eventually retired. Baghdatis put up a fight but Zverev was clutch when he needed to be, and beating Federer was brilliant. I think Zverev has the better backhand and serve, and the will to win this final, grab the 500 points and enforce the statement that he's here to compete.

- Murray 2-0 x Zverev -2.5 games - $3.2 - HALF STAKE

[Lightning]

TENNIS

Some early tips, more will probably be added later.

ATP WIMBLEDON QUAL.

- Millot to WIN - $2.1 - TWO STAKES
- Kravchuk to WIN - $1.6 - TWO STAKES
- Duckworth/De Schepper OVER 23.5 - $1.9 - HALF STAKE
- Trungelliti to WIN 2-1 - $5.5 - QUARTER STAKE
- Zverev x Zemlja - $2 - ONE STAKE

WTA WIMBLEDON QUAL.

- Kate Boulter to WIN - $2.5 - HALF STAKE

ATP NOTTINGHAM

- Dudi Sela to WIN - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
- Muller/Vesely OVER 22.5 - $1.83 - ONE STAKE
- Mannarino/Lorenzi UNDER 20.5 - $1.9 - ONE STAKE

[Lightning]

WTA EASTBOURNE

- Misaki Doi +4.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE

MULTI

- Konta +3.5 games x Dudi Sela +2 games - $3.9 - HALF STAKE


ATP NOTTINGHAM

- Seppi to WIN - $2.1 - ONE STAKE


ATP WIMBLEDON QUALIFIERS

- Jan Satral to WIN - $2.2 - ONE STAKE
- Roger-Vasselin x Kamke - $1.75 - TWO STAKES
- Salisbury x Copil x Millot - $11 - QUARTER STAKE

Cheers!

[Lightning]

ATP NOTTINGHAM

- Dolgopolov to WIN - $2.1 - ONE STAKE
- Anderson/Johnson OVER 23.5 x Seppi 2-0 - $3.8 - HALF STAKE

ATP WIMBLEDON QUALIFICATION

- Roger-Vasselin 3-0 - $2.2 - HALF STAKE
- Kamke TO WIN - $1.8 - HALF STAKE
- Sijsling 3-0 - $1.9- HALF STAKE

[Lightning]

WIMBLEDON

My strategy is to handicap the mens matches and if I have time after, do the women. This is generally because WTA matches are generally a lot more random, which is annoying when you spend a lot of time analysing them.

MENS

- Philip Kohlscreiber -6 games (PINNACLE) - $1.95 - ONE STAKE

At first I thought that the overs might be a good play here, but Phillip is comfortably better than PHH. Herbert's results on grass aren't as good as you might expect for someone who is an excellent volleyer.

- Lukas Lacko -7 games (PINNACLE) - $1.9 - HALF STAKE

Lorenzi is terrible on grass. He lost both his matches on the surface this year, by -7.5 games to Mannarino and -6.5 games to Gabashvili - both hardly grass warriors. He has won 18% of the matches he's played on the surface on the ATP circuit in his career (compared to 40% on clay and 30% on hard), and has never played a challenger match on it either. Wimbledon is also an outdoor tournament, and he has a winning percentage of 31%, compared to 51% in indoor tournaments. Plain and simple, Lorenzi is a clay plodder, and not a lot more. He'll wear down challenger players through consistency, but that won't work as well on grass.

To be fair to Lorenzi, Lacko's not that much better - in fact, if this was on clay, the Italian would be favourite and I'd probably take Lorenzi's line. Lacko just hits the ball a bit flatter and faster, which is conducive to a good grass court game. He's won around 34% of matches on grass courts on the ATP tour, but 58% on challenger tournaments, which sort of illustrates my point. -7 games is a break in each set and a 6-3 somewhere for a push, and if Lacko dominates, he should cover.

- Mahut -6.5 games - $1.72 - TWO STAKES

LOVE. THIS. LINE. Absolutely no respect being shown by the bookies for one of the true grass court specialists on the tour. Mahut won s'Hertogenbosch and pushed Murray to two tiebreaks in the opening round of Queens. He has a handy serve, flat shots on both wings and could probably lay claim to being the best volleyer in the world (maybe with Jamie Murray). Klein's played 11 matches this year, and is a challenger and futures player. The last challenger player Mahut played on grass was Mr. Lukas Lacko, and dismantled him 61 6-4, effectively covering a -6.5 line in two sets. If this doesn't get up, I'll be VERY surprised.

- Ferrer -5.5 games - $1.72 - ONE STAKE

I really love Sela's game - if he had a better serve, he'd be top 50 consistently. Unfortunately, he has probably the sh*ttest tier serve on the tour, and that's putting it nicely. It's so slow. The reason he wins games is because he plays like a top 50 player in every other way, and that's enough to beat 99% of challenger players.

Ferrer is a fallen giant, but is still good enough to take Sela here. As mentioned, he'll have no trouble breaking, so -5.5 works out beautifully.

- Roger-Vasselin to WIN - $1.8 - TWO STAKES

Roger came to Wimbledon qualifying after an ordinary clay season (2-4), promptly went bang, bang, bang and now sits in the main draw. His game style as a serve and volleyer is perfectly suited to grass, and stats back it up. He has a 46% winning record in ATP events on grass (compared to 37 and 40% on clay and hard respectively). Old mate Gabashvili has a 6-15 record, or 28% on grass in ATP tournaments, and has played one challenger match on the surface in his life; a loss. Qualifiers are often more motivated because they've had to earn their place rather than just showing up, and Gabashvili doesn't strike me as the type of guy to maintain and raise his game if he falls behind.

- Goffin -8 games - $1.95 (PINNACLE) - ONE STAKE

Consistency. Consistency. Consistency. IT's the key to Goffin's game. He doesn't have huge firepower, or a magnificent serve. He just hits the ball flat, and works his opponents side to side. He's basically a better version of our favourite challenger player, Dudi Sela. Goffin can be incisive when he has to be, and he's playing against a British wildcard who's lost four in a row on the surface. Ward is going to struggle.

- Raonic -8.5 games x Nishioka/Stakhovsky OVER 35.5 games x Karlovic/Coric OVER 43.5 games - $5.6 - HALF STAKE

Basically all the games I didn't want to stake by themselves.

Hope we get off to a winning start - cheers.

[Lightning]

Small loss last night, but I'm not super happy because I hit 1/3 two stake plays. Scratch that - it's the way that they lost that annoys me. Cuevas up 2-1 sets and loses. Fine. Mahut UP 4-0 IN THE LAST SET, all he has to do is hold serve and he covers the line. What does he do? Goes and gets broken. Shit like that f*cks me right off because in three months time, all you see is a loss on your spreadsheet but in reality, it should be a win and profit for the night.

MENS

- Kyrgios/Stepanek UNDER 39 games - $1.95 (PINNACLE) - ONE STAKE

You can get the same market on sportsbet, but it's UNDER 38.5, and I'm not going to run the risk of losing a play because of three tiebreaks if I don't have to. The same market on other bookies is also priced at around $1.83, which is terrible compared to $1.97 on pinnacle (I've rounded the initial price down for ease of bookkeeping).

- Vesely x Gasquet 3-0 - $2.70 - ONE STAKE

- Skugor +4.5 games - $1.80 - HALF STAKE

- Thompson +7 games - $1.95 (PINNACLE) - ONE STAKE

- Thiem -4 games - $1.95 (PINNACLE) - ONE STAKE

Using pinnacle again because sb and 365 have -4.5 and I'm not getting done by the hook for a lower price.

- Pouille +1.5 x Wawrinka -6.5 x Saville +2.5 x Granollers -5.5 x Kyrgios to WIN - $17 - QUARTER STAKE

Just a bit of a mega multi. They're always fun.


WOMENS

- Cibulkova 2-0 - $2.1 - ONE STAKE

- Melnikova to WIN - $6 - QUARTER STAKE

- Sadikovic/Williams OVER 16.5 - $1.8 - ONE STAKE

- Parmentier to WIN - $3.4 - HALF STAKE

- Radwanska -7 games - $1.95 - ONE STAKE

- Wozniacki x Kvitova x Vandeghwe - $2.5 - ONE STAKE


---------------------------------------------

CHALLENGER MARBURG

- Nils Langer - $3 - HALF STAKE
- Sebastian Fanselow - $7 - QUARTER STAKE

Cheers

[Lightning]

MENS

- Goffin 3-0 - $1.90 - ONE STAKE

- Johnson -2.5 games - $1.80 - ONE STAKE

- Ivo Karlovic 3-0 - $2 - HALF STAKE

- Grigor Dimitrov to WIN - $2 - ONE STAKE

- Mannarino/Djokovic UNDER 28 - $1.85 (PINNACLE) - ONE STAKE

- Raonic 3-0 - $1.95 (PINNACLE) - ONE STAKE

WOMENS

- Lisicki x Bertens - $2 - ONE STAKE

- Flipkens +5 games - $2 - PINNACLE

- Alexandrova +4.5 games x Cornet to WIN - $3.3 (SPORTSBET) - HALF STAKE

- Misaki Doi +4.5 games - $1.72 - HALF STAKE

Cheers

[Lightning]

Adding a few for today:

MENS

- Bautista-Agut 3-0 - $1.80 - ONE STAKE


WOMENS

- Vinci -4.5 games - $1.95 (PINNACLE) - ONE STAKE
- Radwanska -5 games - $1.8 (PINNACLE) - ONE STAKE

Still a boatload of plays above that haven't resulted yet. So far for this tournament I'm -1.55 units, not including the ones that haven't played (obviously).

[Lightning]

BLOODY SOLID last night - that's for sure. Came very close to 100%, gaining 5.61 units and taking my record for wimbledon to +4.03.

MENS

- Lucas Pouille to WIN - $2 - ONE STAKE
- Isner 3-0 x Kyrgios 3-0 x Berdych 3-0 - $4.65 - HALF STAKE

- Mahut x Zverev - $1.7 - ONE UNIT
- Mahut 3-0 x Zverev 3-0 - $6.5 - QUARTER STAKE

- Dimitrov -2 games - $2 (PINNACLE) - ONE STAKE
- Raonic 3-0 - $1.9 - ONE STAKE

WOMENS

- Erakovic +4.5 games x Cornet +5.5 games - $3 - HALF STAKE
- Lisicki 2-0 - $2 - ONE STAKE
- Misaki Doi to WIN - $1.8 (PINNACLE) - ONE STAKE

Cheers!

[Lightning]

Despite a few results not going the way I thought, I'm +4.43 units for individual Wimbledon plays. Devastated that Novak lost last night, but confident that my fail-safes will kick in and wipe away some of the losses. Only a few matches today - there are more tomorrow.

MENS

- Tomas Berdych 3-0 - $3.4 - HALF STAKE
- Vesely/Sousa UNDER 39 - $2 - HALF STAKE

WOMENS

- Roberta Vinci +4.5 games - $1.85 - ONE STAKE
- Strycova x Stephens - $4 - HALF STAKE

Cheers

WOMENS

[Lightning]

MENS

- Mahut to WIN - $1.7 - THREE STAKES
- Tomic -4.5 games - $2 - ONE STAKE
- Berdych 3-0 - $2.5 (PINNACLE) - ONE STAKE
- Gasquet to WIN - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
- Kyrgios to WIN A SET - $1.72 - ONE STAKE
WOMENS

- Venus Williams x Ekaterina Makarova - $2.6 - HALF STAKE
- Kuznetsova +5.5 games - $1.75 - HALF STAKE

Cheers!

[Lightning]

Adding in one more pick here...

BASTAD CHALLENGER

Kicker x Djere - $1.76 - ONE STAKE

You really have to be careful with challenger betting, but that's what makes it fun.

[Jeff_Black]

I was gonna go the other way with Tsonga (at those odds) but have decided to leave it instead.
May be I am more biased to who I think is more the big game player in this scenario but both players have played matches over 2 days and I have no idea who it'll benefit honestly.

Why the confidence in Kyrgios/Berdych? Was looking at them and while Vesely has no business being in the 4th round of any Grand Slam, I am more worried that Berdych has a berdbrain moment and loses a set in a TB or something. On paper and talent wise Berdych wins 3-0 I do agree there. And his form's been good enough.

Kyrgios/Murray a tough one, Kyrgios has beaten three players who consider grass/Wimbledon their favourite time and their best results (despite age) and has improved every time he's played Murray but well Murray's the second best player in the world for a reason.

[Lightning]

I agree about Berdych having an off-set, and that's what I was thinking of when I was analysing it myself, but now that both Wawrinka AND Del Potro have been eliminated, Berdych will know that he has an amazing chance of making it to the semifinals. That spot is effectively his to lose.

Now, that could go one of two ways: one, he relaxes and takes the foot off the pedal, or two, he steps it up hard. If it was Tomic, I'd be thinking one, but a guy like Berdych wouldn't take things for granted. He'll know that Vesely has been in good form and serving well, and if he DOES take the foot off, he could be two sets down and up sh*t creek in no time.

Also, I think people are giving Vesely a little TOO much respect. He's a good player, but prior to beating Djokovic in ** he was just another guy that hadn't reached his full potential. He's played Sijsling, Sousa and Thiem. None of them are fantastic grass court players. Thiem's coach admitted he was exhausted. I think Berdych comes out hard, wins the first pretty easily and then rolls that momentum over. For $2.50, I'm willing to take the risk of a momentary concentration lapse ala Zverev last night.

Re. Kyrgios, I just think that he's a big game player, and will be bolstered by the fact that he beat him in straights at the Hopman Cup. Regardless or not of whether that counted, it's still a mental factor. If he's on, he can beat anyone in the world.

Lastly, Tsonga and Gasquet. On grass, I think Gasquet is the better player, and Tsonga's just come off a marathon match. Like you said, both have played recent matches but Tsonga's been the one that has been stretched the most, and we all know that after a good win it's sometimes hard to get back on the horse.

[Lightning]

I don't know why it has **, I put m c for monte carlo

[Jeff_Black]

Nah all good haha, fair reasoning. I could see Berdych winning 6-4 6-4 6-4. But as I said its take him losing a set rather then Vesely winning it.

The bookies making that -2.5 set handicap on Murray/Kyrgios at a pick em line makes me think they want the public to decide. So you've taken one side which is fair enough and tbh I think Kyrgios could take a set and play hard rather then wait for Murray to lose. But with Murrays poor second serve and Kyrgios improvement since they last played as well as his fav surface you'd give him a good chance.

[Lightning]

Yeah exactly. There's always a fair chance something will go wrong, but that's part and parcel of it haha.

If Kyrgios comes out and plays super aggressively and actually nails most of his shots, I really think he could put a bit of doubt in Murray's mind. I think he definitely needs to serve well and win one of the first two sets for him to have a chance though.

[Lightning]

EDIT AGAIN: Doing the Japanese double - Kerber 2-0 x Cilic/Nishikori OVER 41.5 - $2.8 - HALF STAKE