[maletaja]

One tennisplayer said that Berdich is ideal player, he doesnt have weaknesses, but somehow match ups against TOP4 is very weakI watched Vesely games and im impressed. Good serve, nice return. I cant see Berdich win it easly like 6-4 6-3 6-3 mayby some under games is ok

[Lightning]

Yeah against the top 5 is a different story. Very few styles of play can beat those guys, and Berdych's is not really one of them.

[Lightning]

Probably one of my worst nights ever last night... nothing went to plan.

WOMENS

- Vesnina +4 games - $1.95 - ONE STAKE

I've been tipping long enough to know that not a lot makes sense in tennis. You can rarely back in a favourite and just sit back and expect an easy win. The Cibulkova/Radwanska match will probably go down as the match of the tourney, and for good reason. The highlights package would have to be about an hour long to do it justice, because almost every point ended spectacularly.

Common sense would be to back in Cibulkova, because she's on a 9 match winning streak on the surface and played beautifully yesterday. Like I said, however, it doesn't work like that. Vesnina has been in terrific form this year and this tournament. She's thumped players when she's had to and showed great courage and nerve to fight back from a set down against Makarova in her last match. She plays an aggressive game, and won't let Cibulkova dictate the points. She'll hit more UE's than Radwanska, but more winners as well. I see this match being a pretty close match, and I'm happy to take a four game advantage.

- Williams/Pavlyuchenkova OVER 18.5 - $1.83 (bet365) - ONE STAKE

Slightly controversial, but Pavlyuchenkova (hereafter known as Pav) has been playing beautifully. Her offensive, fast punching game suits faster surfaces, so I'm not really surprised to see her in the quarters of Wimbledon. She's played at a phenomenal level, which culminated in her dismissing a red-hot Vandeghwe in straight sets. What was most impressive was that she hit 13 winners for only 6 unforced errors. She won 49% of return points - an achievement against a serve as good as Coco's. She'll be used to big serving when she plays Williams, and I'm backing her in to take the games total over.

-------------------------------------------------------

DOUBLES MULTI

Mahut/Herbert x Williams/Williams - $1.8 - HALF STAKE

Mahut and Herbert are the number one seeds and rose to prominence this year after taking out three consecutive Masters 1000 Doubles titles - Indian Wells, Miami and Monaco. Williams/Williams have a 4-1 h2h advantage over their opponents and are better on grass. Hoping for a fuss free win here.

-------------------------------------------------------

CHALLENGER BASTAD

- Ymer x Zeballos x Berlocq - $2 - HALF STAKE

Zeballos has won his last five in a row, taking out the last tournament he played in. Berlocq has won 8 of his last 9 on clay. Ymer is in his home country, playing a guy that is ridiculously bad on clay. Fabbiano (his opponent) has lost his last 5 and 12 of his last 15 on the surface. Ymer is a youngster who is good on clay.

- Ymer 2-0 - $1.8 - HALF STAKE

See above.

- Ardvisson to WIN - $2.6 - HALF STAKE

Bit of a hunch here. Home advantage in challenger events seems to be a huge advantage, and the form of the Swede's opponent is nothing to write home about.

- Dustov to WIN - $2.8 - HALF STAKE

Same thing again here. Dustov is in average form, but MDL is in worse. Will take the value at high odds.

-------------------------------------------------------

CHALLENGER BRAUNSCHWEIG

- Andreas Beck +4.5 games - $2 (PINNACLE) - HALF STAKE

I'm not normally Beck's biggest fan because he's slightly inconsistent, but Bellucci hasn't played on clay for about six weeks. There is an adjustment period, as I've proven to you before. Beck has a pretty good serve (good enough that I'm surprised he skipped the grass swing altogether), and can play his shots. Bellucci is obviously a much better player, but with the GtCap (Grass to Clay adjustment period) and Beck's solid serve, I think he can cover the handicap.

- Kamke x Kovalik - $1.9 - HALF STAKE

Just two solid players here. Kamke *should* have no issues (he rarely lets me down, to be fair to him), while I've chosen Kovalik because Daniel (his opponent) has the GtCap and was in poor clay form beforehand.

-------------------------------------------------------

CHALLENGER WINNETKA

- Duckworth -2.5 games - $1.9 (PINNACLE) - ONE STAKE

On first glance, it looks like Duckworth had a horrid grass season. 1-4 doesn't make pretty reading. Look a little closer though, and in every loss he had, he won at least one set. That indicates that he's not getting smashed, but losing it at pivotal moments.

If you go back before the grass season, he won Bangkok Challenger, on hard, beating a number of decent players in the process. You'd have to go back to February to find his last hard tournament, but he won three in a row in that before withdrawing before his semi-final match.

His opponent, Smith, had a slightly less industrious hard court swing - winning 1 of his previous 9 on the surface, and 6/17 total after the Australian Open. Duckworth has a very solid game and serves well - and that should be enough to put away Smith.

- Tiafoe x Shane x Sarkissian x Nishioka - $5.3 - QUARTER STAKE

[Lightning]

Put the head down and did quite a bit of research for my Wimbledon plays today, so I'm hoping I get due results. Profit last night, with two games left to play. Both looking good though, so that profit *should* increase.

MENS

- Raonic vs. Querrey UNDER 43.5 games (PINNACLE) - $2 - TWO STAKES

For my analysis today I've used statistics. A lot of people often don't bother, or use statistics that don't really matter. To be fair to them, it's a complicated question. But nonetheless, some matter more than most. For me, the SINGLE most important stats are % break points won and % break points saved. All well and good to be nailing winners and aces and hitting low unforced errors, but matches are decided on pivotal points. I think it's fair to say that matches are decided on break points - one way or another. Someone like Djokovic is number one because he has incredible nerve on break points. He converts 44% of the break point chances he gets. That's top echelon. Similarly, lower ranked players are lower ranked players because they often do not play their best tennis on break points.

What I've done is compared break point % (saved and converted) and compared it against the player's career average. I've then done a bit of analysis to find the number of times I expect the player to break (or be broken, depending on the way you look at it) in their quarter-final match.

People have been raving about Querrey all tournament, but I've consistently said he's still not playing amazing well. He got a large slice of luck in that Djokovic was off his game and capitalised. The stats back me up. He's won 34% of bp, while his career average is 32%. He's saved 69% of bp, while his career average is 69%.

Raonic, on the other hand, is slightly different. He's won 36%, compared to 37% in his career. He has, however, saved 81%, compared to a 70% career average on grass. It gets even better. If you take away the two first sets in his match against Goffin (where he was playing some absolutely grouse tennis - not his usual level at all), he has saved 100% of break points. 100%. Nobody has broken him.

Querrey is nowhere near as good as Goffin, so I don't think it's a stretch to say Raonic will be more likely to operate at the 100%. Looking at chances generated, Querrey had to face 32 break points, compared to Raonic with 16 (or 8 if you take out the first two vs. Goffin). AFter doing a few simple sums, Querrey will get broken around 2.9 times in the match. Raonic, depending on which set of data you use, will get broken 1.36 times, or 0.68 times. For me, it's a simple answer. Raonic is clearly playing the better tennis at pressure moments, and should end Sam's run with little fuss.

- Berdych vs. Pouille - OVER 36.5 games (SPORTSBET) - $1.83 - TWO STAKES

If you want a classic case where a player has overperformed, look no further than Lucas Pouille. I'll start with Tomas Berdych though. He's won 47% of break points in the tournament, compared to a CA of 35%. This shows he's taking the chances when presented. His bp saved numbers are slightly down, but not enough to suggest anything is drastically wrong.

A few of my friends have been asking why Pouille has been playing so well. Well, here's your answer: During his career on grass, Pouille has won 32% of the bp he earned. In this tournament, he's won 67%. Read that again. 67%. That's an increase of 35%!!!! Adding to that, his career average of bp saved is 56%. He's saved 75% in this tournament. Before this tourney, he hadn't won a match on grass. He's now in the quarters. Correlation does not imply causation, but that is HUGE evidence that Pouille has been playing at a phenomenal level on break points, and that level is why he's lining up against Tomas Berdych for a place in the semis.

I've done the sums, and Pouille should break Berdych around 4.36 times in the match. Berdych should break Pouille around 4.7 times. Now, I expect Berdych to ultimately win, BUT Pouille has been playing at such a level that it would surprise me if he does not win a set.

- Federer vs. Cilic - UNDER 39 games (PINNACLE) - $2 - TWO STAKES

"Cilic has been playing well" - everyone. Has he, though? Before I start, I have to say that I omitted the data from his match against Nishikori because it's not reliable. In the matches before, he won 25% of the bp he earned, compared to a CA of 37%. That's correct, he's actually down 12% against players that he really should be beating easily. He's winning, but the numbers aren't matching up. To his credit, he's also up 12% on the bp saved, with 80% compared to a CA of 68%.

Federer has allowed only six break points in four games. That's an average of only 1.5 break points in every match. Incredible. The numbers say it's more likely for Federer to not be broken than the alternative. Cilic should only break 0.38 times in the match - a very low number (lower even than Raonic). As a corollary, it shows that you don't need a booming serve to be effective on serve. Federer should win in three sets, but I do expect a tiebreak somewhere, because Cilic has been serving very well.

- Murray vs. Tsonga - First set OVER 10.5 games - $2.2 - ONE STAKE
- Murray 3-0 - $1.9 (PINNACLE) - TWO STAKES

Again, after omitting the game against Gasquet, Tsonga is playing at his normal, career level. Murray, on the other hand, is up. 47% break points converted, compared to 41%, and a 4% rise on bp saved. I don't think Murray will be broken, or if he does, not more than once. Interestingly though, in all six of their past six games, the number of games in the first set has been over 10. I'll ride with the trend on that little piece of data.

I might add some challenger picks later, but I'm pretty done after this analysis haha.

Cheers!

[Lightning]

Murray 3-0 x Raonic 3-0 x Federer 3-0 - $9.5 - HALF STAKE

Adding this one.

[Conqueror]

Pouille isn't overarchieving, IMHO. He's that good. True!

[Chaz22]

First of all interesting analysis.


I strongly agree with Berdych - Pouilee selection as I also think that Pouille wins are by no means accidental. So over 36.5 games has a good value.
Moreover, I think Frenchman has a 50/50ty chance of winning this match.


Raonic - Querrey - now at first I thought this is also a good pick, not because Raonic is as you say far more better but 43.5 is quite some total so even if this turns out to be a battle it can go under.
But then my second thoughts are pushing me to lean more to OVER.


Here's why.


Both of them are great servers so chances of getting a break for Raonic is considerably lower than it was against Goffin.
Sam is not a good defender, but this is his time to shine, he has beaten Djokovic, he backed-up his performance against great grass-court player in Mahut. He has beaten Raonic here before couple of years ago, so he knows he can win (oh yes, that match took 46 games but it's of course almost irrelevant). And he wil return on Court 1 where he won Djokovic and felt really good about his game.
Raonic on the other hand is a fighter too. He proved it against Goffin, so if it goes badly at the start he will fight. I agree on Raonic beaing a fav here, for sure, but im quite convinced that this will go at least 4 sets, with couple of tie-breaks so 43.5 games is reachable.


Cilic - Fed - This can be tricky. Fed looked more than fine against Johnson, but Cilic is more experienced and know how to win him. Then again, grass is Fed's best surface nowadays so if he starts well he can run through in straight sets...so it's all about who wins first set. not sure this is a good spot to pick under.


Lastly, not much to say about Murray as he most liekly will take care of J.W. not just because he is a better player, but because J.W. can win big matches if crowd gets behing him which you cant imagine will happen today
I rarely take -2.5 set handicap and this will be no different. But if had to pick, I would probably take it.

[Lightning]

That's why I love tennis - because you can have so many valid opinions on how a match will go.

You're right of course, and that's partially why I took the unders rather than 3-0. It's important to remember though that although Goffin doesn't have as good a serve, his groundstrokes and defensive game are better than Querrey's. Raonic's serve was actually limited in it's effectiveness (22 aces in FIVE sets, as opposed to an average of 26 over each previous three set game) by Goffin, and he still came up trumps and found a way to hold. I'm expecting a LOT of aces for Raonic tonight (30-40), because I don't think Querrey will be as inclined to jump at them.

The surprisng thing with the stats though is even though Querrey's been 'serving well', he's still allowing around 8 break points per match. That's more than enough opportunities for a guy like Raonic who'll be able to attack Querrey more than Mahut.

You could be right, and it's probably a coin flip, but I'd rather be on the better player.

[potjnr88]

I think a match against Djokovic should be treated differently to a match versus almost anyone else. Querrey faced 3 break points v Bellucci and only faced 1 break point v Mahut who has similar(a bit better) grass return stats as Raonic. He looked outstanding v Mahut and tough to think he will be that good again but I feel you may be slightly underrating him here.

[potjnr88]

Looks like you were right. Sam has been terrible in the big moments

[Lightning]

Looks like you were right. Sam has been terrible in the big moments

Clearly not. Unbelievable. Two plays looking like they're coasting and five minutes later I'm f*cked in both. Honestly don't even know why I bother trying anymore.

[cryptocap]

unlucky...chip up...i took the over in fed-cilic and it looks like both matches will be done in 4

[Jayvegas420]

I nomanated your post in PT.
Love the analysis in this thread.
I took over 9.5 & 10.5 in this Murray match.
You were ead on about break point advantages!
Thanks for the pick!

[Lightning]

unlucky...chip up...i took the over in fed-cilic and it looks like both matches will be done in 4

Thanks mate. Will do

[Lightning]

I nomanated your post in PT.
Love the analysis in this thread.
I took over 9.5 & 10.5 in this Murray match.
You were ead on about break point advantages!
Thanks for the pick!

I'd love to say thanks Jay, but I'm not sure what you mean by 'nominated it in PT?'

The over 10.5 was the only play that got up in the end, but a night where stats didn't predict it.

[Lightning]

Ouch.

Pretty much all I can say after last night. Upon reflection though, there's probably not a lot I would've changed. I thought Murray would smash Tsonga with the crowd behind him, but he allowed him back into the match and then smashed him. The underlying stats indicated that Pouille/Berdych would be closer than I thought, which wasn't the case. Raonic played lights out tennis in the first two sets and then had a brainfade in the third and I lost by half a game. Fed/Cilic was possibly the only one I stuffed up - my data indicated both would be serving well but I interpreted that as 'fed would win the tiebreaks', rather than 'close game, hit the overs'. To sum up, I'm pissed but at the same time, those plays were based purely on data. I'm confident in the long run that the underlying stats would shine through.

I identified that break points were vital stats in the mens game, but what about the womens? Break points clearly didn't matter as much, because breaks of serve are much more common, and didn't affect the game as much as men. I was thinking about it though, while looking at the stats, and I came to the realisation that the reason women often get broken is because their serve is weaker than men. 'Duh', you're saying, 'that's obvious'.

I narrowed it down further. 90% of women are going to have a reasonably 'first serve won' %. That's because the first is a lot harder and faster, like men. Often, however, the second is a lot slower, and shorter. And I had this eureka moment, this sudden realisation, that I'd found that critical piece of data that pointed in the direction more than any other: second serve win %, with probably the second most important piece being: first serve in %.

The women who do better are the ones that a) land their first serves more often [because that equates to a higher likelihood of winning the point] and b) when they do have to bring out a second serve, they have a higher chance of winning than their opponent.

The only one who seems to seems to do really well with a lower second serve % is Serena Williams, but on closer inspection, that's often because she's landing 70%+ of her first serves and winning 80%+ of those. Who needs a second when you have the best first in women's tennis?

Example involving Williams: She smashed Beck 6-3, 6-0 in the third round. Her first serves in % was 74 and her second serve won % was 50. Compare that to Beck with 80% and 33%. It's interesting to note that although Beck landed 80%, she won only 40%. This is why second serve won% is the more important piece. Overall, Serena's chance of winning a point in that match were 77%, compared to Beck's meagre 39%. As expected, Serena dominated Beck's serve and did very well on her own.

In her last match, a much tighter 6-4, 6-4, she landed 69% and won 33% of her second. Pavlyuchenkova landed 72% and won 41%. If you didn't know the score, you'd possibly expect Pavlyuchenkova to win in a close match. Answer: Serena's first serve won % was a whopping 90%. In fairness to Pav, she looked very comfortable in all of the service games expect the ones she was broken in. Serena's overall chances of winning a point on serve were 72.3%, compared to Pav's 60.4%. NOTE though, the closer figures indicated a closer game, and it was.

ANGELIQUE KERBER VS. VENUS WILLIAMS

A lot of people are probably thinking, 'Kerber's going well', without ultimately knowing what's behind her success. Her YTD records (I couldn't find career records - the WTA website is garbage) show a 1st serve in % of 65 and a second serve won % of 50. Her numbers this wimbledon: 69% first serves in (first serve won numbers are almost identical to her YTD) and 59% first serves won. Boost your second serve won rate by 9%, and you're in a semi**. Her chance of winning a point this Wimbledon hovers just over 61%.

Take Venus. Her YTD shows 58% first serves in, and 47% first serves won. Her wimbledon stats show that she's operating at 64% and 45% respectively. Her first serve won % is about 4% higher. Her 1st serves in % is around 6% higher, but her second serves won % is 2% lower. Her overall chance of winning a point sits at 60%, 1% less than Kerber.

You're probably thinking, 1%? That's all that separates them in the end? Let's take a look at the bigger picture though. I said that second serve won % was more important. Angie is up 9%, Venus down by 2%. Angie is winning around 14-15% more second serves than Venus, and landing around 5% more first serves in. Look though - Angie has won EVERY MATCH in straight sets. Venus has had two matches go to third sets, and tiebreaks in all three of the others. It's clear that she's had to fight a lot harder than Angie.

I'll leave you with that, but before I move on, I'm going to suggest the obvious play.

- Kerber -3.5 games - $1.72 - TWO STAKES

It's just not statistical, it's also logical. She's looked amazing this tournament, and I'd be incredibly surprised if she didn't make the final.

**as a corollary, I'm not suggesting that these two numbers are the be-all and end all for predicting a match - that's far too simplistic. All I'm saying is that these two numbers make sense on both a statistical AND logical level.

SERENA WILLIAMS VS ELENA VESNINA

I'll start with the Russian. YTD says 64% and 47% (I'm hoping that if you got this far, you know what I'm talking about). Her tourney stats show 64% and 55%. A second serve won % boost of 8% and in a semi-final. Hmmm, this seems a little familiar.

Serena is possibly the only woman that bucks my mold a bit. She's got stats of 66% and 50% respectively in Wimbledon, while her YTD shows 60% and 49%. Her second serve won % hasn't really moved though. For the first time though, I'm going into first serves won %, rather than just first serves landed %. She's won EIGHTY PERCENT of first serves. That's freakish, and that's why her other stats that are relatively poor don't matter that much. Compare that to her YTD, and she's up around 8% in first serves won %.

Williams second set handicap: -2.5 games - $2.10 (SPORTSBET) - TWO STAKES

I think Serena wins this match, despite how well Vesnina has been playing. You can't compete with a first serve won % of 80. However, instead of taking her handicap straight, I'm taking the second set line. There are two main reasons for this: one is that Serena, despite her ability, has a habit of doing poorly in the first, and then smashing them in the rest of the match. Second reason is that excellent players who are 2-0 or 1-0 sets up generally dominate in the third or second set. Either she drops the first and plays hard in the second, or she wins the first and dominates the second (so I hope). I'm almost tempted to take the reverse +2.5 line for Vesnina in the first, because she has been playing well.

As another play, Sportsbet have ace lines up, and I'm going to make a play on that:

PLAYER B (Vesnina) total aces: OVER 3.5 - $1.87 - ONE STAKE

Vesnina has cleared this in every match she's played so far.

Challenger picks will be below, if I find any that I like.

Cheers

[Lightning]

CHALLENGER BASTAD

Soderlund/Gimeno-Traver OVER 18.5 - $1.9 - ONE STAKE

Running with the 'home court' strategy again. It's well recognised that players don't give 100% every game, so you often have to look at who it means most to. In this case, clearly the home player, and I'm backing in his value through the overs.

MULTI

Zeballos x Albot - $2 - ONE STAKE (Challengers Bastad, Braunschweig)

CHALLENGER BRAUNSCHWEIG

- Basilashvili +3.5 games x Gabashvili -3.5 games x Zverev +2.5 games - $6.9 - QUARTER STAKE

CHALLENGER CALI

Quiroz to WIN - $2.3 - ONE STAKE

Taking a punt on form. Quiroz is a) from Colombia and b) been in good form on clay on the ITF circuit and took out one of the seeds in his last match.

Martin to WIN x Trungelliti to WIN - $3.1 - HALF STAKE

[Chaz22]

Good that you are ready to bounce back from yesterday's pain.

Both picks look great to me, specifically, Serena's 2nd set handicap which unfortunately is not on my bookie available.

[Lightning]

Good that you are ready to bounce back from yesterday's pain.

Both picks look great to me, specifically, Serena's 2nd set handicap which unfortunately is not on my bookie available.

Cheers Chaz. A few people have reminded me that we all have bad days. Just unfortunate I suppose.

Which bookie are you with?

[Chaz22]

Cheers Chaz. A few people have reminded me that we all have bad days. Just unfortunate I suppose.

Which bookie are you with?

Betdsi...

I was on Cilic ML yesterday...so imagine how 3 matchpoints felt...

[Brooklyn Dick]

Anyone have an opinion on the line if Serena plays Kerber?

[Lightning]

Anyone have an opinion on the line if Serena plays Kerber?

Possibly -4.5 at around $2.1 and +4.5 at around $1.70-80 and o/u 20.5 imo

[Jeff_Black]

I wonder if anyone has given some thought to the outside influences.
Just the fact we could be seeing the Williams sisters play against one another for the last time be freaking amazing enough at their age?
And I don't think too highly of them either, (the match fixing of 2001 IW, Serenas well documented shady past)
But anyway it's worth some thought.
Both sisters I have a phenomenal SF hit rate. Venus is 8-0 in SF encounters and Serena is 8-1. Both know when they are in a winning position to go for the win they have to take it.
The only obvious downside is her age, but then again as much of a joke the WTA is that a 36 year old injury riddled Venus Williams can make the top 10 and SF of A slam says it there enough. It'd be a big ask to beat Kerber and the odds are probably justified. That said I think Kerbers odds are too low IMO

[Lightning]

Can't help but feel the stats point towards a Williams comeback...QUARTER UNIT ON AT $12 would hedge but can't expect people to get on that.

[Lightning]

Betdsi...

I was on Cilic ML yesterday...so imagine how 3 matchpoints felt...

that would've killed me hahaha

[Lightning]

I wonder if anyone has given some thought to the outside influences.
Just the fact we could be seeing the Williams sisters play against one another for the last time be freaking amazing enough at their age?
And I don't think too highly of them either, (the match fixing of 2001 IW, Serenas well documented shady past)
But anyway it's worth some thought.
Both sisters I have a phenomenal SF hit rate. Venus is 8-0 in SF encounters and Serena is 8-1. Both know when they are in a winning position to go for the win they have to take it.
The only obvious downside is her age, but then again as much of a joke the WTA is that a 36 year old injury riddled Venus Williams can make the top 10 and SF of A slam says it there enough. It'd be a big ask to beat Kerber and the odds are probably justified. That said I think Kerbers odds are too low IMO

There was no doubt about Serena, but Kerber is just playing too well for Venus. I'd love it if she went all the way.

[Chaz22]

Im sure you will add your input here soon but here are my little thoughts on

Raonic - Federer

And I think Raonic should pull through here not with ease but in some 4 sets most likely.

I doubted Federer a lot and it cost me some money, and yes, he has been quite successful against Milos, but again I am going against him this time.
I just think match against Cilic just took too much out of him - mentally and physically. again he can say that it boosted his confidence etc., i don't buy this.
So unless Raonic steps up and plays passive tennis Federer should lose this match.
ML Raonic odds around 2.5

Murray - Berdych

So this is all about if Murray can beat him in straight sets or not. And I believe he can. Just because Berdikk has always been like that - wins most of them who are ranked below him and looses to everyone who is higher than him.
then again -2.5 sets is always a selection to loose. So ill see how that Raonic match plays out.

[Lightning]

Im sure you will add your input here soon but here are my little thoughts on

Raonic - Federer

And I think Raonic should pull through here not with ease but in some 4 sets most likely.

I doubted Federer a lot and it cost me some money, and yes, he has been quite successful against Milos, but again I am going against him this time.
I just think match against Cilic just took too much out of him - mentally and physically. again he can say that it boosted his confidence etc., i don't buy this.
So unless Raonic steps up and plays passive tennis Federer should lose this match.
ML Raonic odds around 2.5

Murray - Berdych

So this is all about if Murray can beat him in straight sets or not. And I believe he can. Just because Berdikk has always been like that - wins most of them who are ranked below him and looses to everyone who is higher than him.
then again -2.5 sets is always a selection to loose. So ill see how that Raonic match plays out.

It's getting to the point now where sentimentality creeps in. I personally want Fed to take out Wimbledon so I'm afraid that will influence my plays.

I haven't done my analysis yet, so I can't comment beyond the surface, but I agree with your Murray assesment. Not sure that you can write off Fed that easily.

[Chaz22]

It's getting to the point now where sentimentality creeps in. I personally want Fed to take out Wimbledon so I'm afraid that will influence my plays.

I haven't done my analysis yet, so I can't comment beyond the surface, but I agree with your Murray assesment. Not sure that you can write off Fed that easily.

Fed is my favorite player to cheer for as well, but it's just too often when I back a player who I want to win rarely do I come out as a winner.

[Lightning]

About a 4.5 unit gain last night, which was brilliant after a rough couple of days. One of the things that I'm most pleased about is that I put 20 units on Djokovic in my futures thread, yet I still managed to come out 8 units ahead when you combined all my futures. They've been one of my strong points this year and I'm happy that they could make up a -20 unit bomb and pull me hard into profit.

Another pleasing thing was my challenger picks - I only just about broke even, but the general thought process was strong and that can only be a positive thing. As I've said before, a lot of people can do ATP and WTA, but not many tip challenger and ITF.

Anyway, onto the main event.

ROGER FEDERER VS. MILOS RAONIC

I'm going to get it out of the way straight away: I really hope Roger wins this. It would be fantastic to see him grab another grand slam, and if he did, it wouldn't surprise me if he retired right then and there.

The problem is that he's facing Milos. The Canadian has a booming serve and volley game, and will look to be aggressive as possible. In his last match, he hit 16 unforced errors to 58 winners. That's superb; absolute top shelf stuff.

To be fair to Fed, 67 winners and 24 unforced errors isn't a bad ratio either. The problem was that his shots sometimes looked a bit shaky, and he occasionally struggled for timing. If you take just the last three sets, where he raised his level (and Cilic lowered his a bit), he recorded 41 winners to 13 unforced errors at a ratio of 3.13. His first two sets had a ratio of 2.36. His LAST two set had a ratio of around 3.56. So, Fed undisputably raised his game as the match went on.

Fed saved 87% of his break points, which is fantastic. The problem is that he actually allowed eight of them. I guarantee that Raonic will capitalise where Cilic couldn't. Fed converted 22% of his break point chances (2/9), and it's only going to get harder against Milos. The Canadian only allowed 2 break points, getting broken on one of them. 50% sounds bad until you realise that he only allowed TWO points in the entire game.

To me, this is how the game will go: Raonic is going to hold serve pretty easily. Federer will do enough, but I'm certain that Raonic will have more chances to break. Both guys have good enough serves that one break in a set should guarantee the set, and I'd bet against there being two breaks of serve in one set. That means, therefore, there will be two separate breaks of serve in separate sets, meaning that both guys, as a base, should win one set each. There is a high likelihood that we'll see two or more tiebreaks. Like I said, Milos should win a set. That means a +2.5 turns into a +3.5 or +4.5, and I can't see Fed overturning that against such a good serve. Thus, I'm going to recommend one unit on the overs, and one on Raonic's spread.

- OVER 43.5 games - $1.83 - ONE STAKE
- Raonic +2.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE

ANDY MURRAY VS. TOMAS BERDYCH

I really don't know what to think about this game. Andy *should* be too strong, but at odds of $1.10, there's not a lot of point. He's also slipped up a little bit where he shouldn't, so I don't want to back in 3-0.

In their only two matches on hard court in grand slams, both games went over 10.5 games in the first set. The rest of the matches (best of three setters) went under 10.5. 7-5 to Murray seems about right, so I might go a cheeky quarter stake on it.

- First set correct score: 7-5 MURRAY - $11 - QUARTER STAKE
- First set games OVER 10.5 - $2.62 - HALF STAKE

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CHALLENGER BASTAD

- Horatio Zeballos +2.5 games - $1.83 - ONE STAKE

Zeballos has won his last 8 and 12 of his last 15 on clay, all against pretty good clay players. Berlocq has won 9 of his last 10 and 17 of his last 20. Both are in phenomenal form at the moment. I don't think this will be a straightforward match for either of them, and Berlocq has had to dig himself out of trouble a few times by going into a third set in this tourney. I also think that Zeballos is marginally the better player (who could forget his triumph over Nadal?), so I'm happy to take the games.

CHALLENGER WINNETKA

- Francis Tiafoe to WIN - $2 - ONE STAKE

Gift of a price. Tiafoe is 100% the better player - a gifted youngster on the rise. I also feel he has more motivation to win this, because it's in America, and that's his home country.

CHALLENGER BRAUNSCHWEIG

- Gabashvili +3.5 games - $1.9 (PINNACLE) - ONE STAKE

Both players have a similar (read: almost the same) break point saved % and break point converted %. Both of them have done about the same on clay this year. Bellucci is probably the better player, but it's going to mean more to Gabashvili. I don't think Bellucci should be favoured this much in a challenger tournament, where the seeds often have a reputation for crashing out.

- Tobais Kamke to WIN - $2 - ONE STAKE

ITF VERSMOLD

- Sorana Cirstea -4.5 games - $1.66 - ONE STAKE

Her opponent, Kerkhove, has played 12 matches on clay this year, winning 7 of them. That figure is fairly average, and gets worse when you see the list of c-grade opponents that she's actually playing against. Cirstea has been a huge improver this year, and has won 4 of her last five, eight of her last ten and 15 of her last 20 on clay. She's actually being playing legit WTA tournaments against good players as well. Would've liked a bit more juice on the line, but c'est la vie.

[Jayvegas420]

Nice sweep in the Raonic match!!!!

[Lightning]

Nice sweep in the Raonic match!!!!

Cheers mate. Nice when you actually nail it ahaha

[Lightning]

I have a general rule about finals where I don't bet them because I want to enjoy them. If the value is on the player I'm going for, then I'll possibly do it, but otherwise, non. Je suis fatigue after last night's match, so haven't had time to do a lot of analysis for tonight's final. I don't think you really need it though - the value is clearly on Williams with a -4.5 handicap (I've seen -3.5 in some places!), but I'm going for Kerber so I'm going to leave it. Just a couple of nice value challenger tickets below.

CHALLENGER CALI

Victor Estrella Burgos to WIN x Herbert/Mahut and Benneteau/Roger-Vasselin OVER 3.5 sets - $1.8 - ONE STAKE

CHALLENGER BASTAD

Horatio Zeballos -1.5 games - $1.8 - ONE STAKE



MULTI

Parmentier x Cirstea x Ceccinato x Trungelliti x Tiafoe - $4.8 - QUARTER STAKE (ITF Versmold, ITF Contrexeville, Challenger Todi, Challenger Todi, Challenger Winnetka)

Cheers!

[Lightning]

Zeballos wins comfortably as expected. Wish I put more than one stake on now; that was such a gimme play.

[Lightning]

Last day of Wimbledon - it would be nice to sign off with a win here.

DENIS SHAPOVALOV vs. ALEX DE MINAUR - JUNIOR BOYS FINAL

I'm not entirely sure how this is legal, but if the market is up on pinnacle, it must be. Either way, it's an easy decision. I first came about Shapovalov earlier this year when he was cutting a swathe through some very good players on the challenger circuit. He made it to the final of Challenger Drummondville, beating Krajicek, Olivo, and Peliwo, before taking a set off Evans. Impressive for someone who's only 17 years old. Interestingly, Drummondville is an indoor tournament, with faster courts. It should have sent warning bells to the rest of the competitors at Wimbledon, and Denis has backed it up by making the final (after beating the junior number one, Tsitsipas, in the final). De Minaur is a great talent, but Shapovalov is slightly ahead with his game, and should be able to take care of him.

- Denis Shapovalov to WIN - $1.5 (PINNACLE) - ONE STAKE


ANDY MURRAY VS. MILOS RAONIC

Murray will be winning this. I don't often say stuff like this so authoritatively, but it's very hard to see any other result tonight. The crowd will be at his back, and cheering him on. Milos Raonic has a great serve, but Murray is one of the best returners in the game (the best, you'd have to say, behind Djokovic). Raonic is also a little robotic in his movement around the court, while Murray is electric. Raonic will try to hammer Murray into submission with brute power, but Murray will counter and make Raonic run with the angles that he can create. Expect quite a few drop shots and slices - slices especially because Raonic's shown a weakness against the shot, netting quite a few returns.

I did my maths, and the stats show that Raonic should break Murray 1.48 times, but let's round that up to 2, because it's a final and because he has been playing well. Murray should break Raonic around twice, but let's also bump that up to 3, because it's a final and he'll be buzzed.

What this indicates is that Raonic will win a set, because it's unlikely that there will be two breaks of serve in the one set. To be completely honest though, I think Murray will win in three. Because of this, I'm just going to piledrive Murray's moneyline price.

- Murray TO WIN - $1.3 - TEN (10) STAKES

Crownbet also has a market that I like:

- Murray to WIN and UNDER 40.5 games - $2.50 - ONE STAKE


CHALLENGER CALI

- Burgos -4.5 games - $1.83 - ONE STAKE

MULTI

- Horansky to WIN x Lottner to WIN - $3.6 - QUARTER STAKE (ITF Saarlouis, ITF Versmold)

- Monteiro x Tepevac - $1.72 - ONE STAKE (ATP Hamburg Qual., ATP Bastaad Qual.)

WTA GSTAAD QUALIFICATION

- Razzano to WIN - $2 - ONE STAKE

ATP BASTAAD QUALIFICATION

- Satral to WIN - $2.4 - ONE STAKE

Cheers!