**These will be edited as the night goes on.
After a gain of over 4.5 units last night, I'm back again. I want to emphasise again that this is a LONG TERM thing, so don't go betting more than you can afford on any one of these tips, and make sure you cover all. They are lines - so theoretically they should be 50/50, but I seek out lines that I think are weighted more on either side to derive value.
If you're a little confused by the pricing system, you can convert it to the American system as follows:
1) Take the price, and multiply it by 100.
2) Subtract 100 from that.
3) Whack a + in front of it.
i.e. $3.50 -> 3.5 x 100 = 350 -> 350-100 = +250
If you don't want to do that every time, the decimal system is still fairly easy to follow. $2 is the same as +100, and $1.90 is evens, or what you guys would call -110. The number in front of the dollar sign is what you'd get if you put $1 on it i.e. if you have a price of $1.50 - putting $1 on that would return you $15, or $5 profit.
**Note, as a PSA, I take my prices and lines from either bet365 or sportsbet.com.au
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ATP NICE
- Andreas Seppi -4.5 games - $2 - ONE STAKE
One of the better plays for the night in my opinion. This is not so much backing Seppi, but fading Munoz De La Nava (hereforward referred to as MDLN). MDLN has lost his last 5 in a row on (all on clay), his last 8 of 9 on clay, and last 10 of 11 across all surfaces. He had a great season last year, so this run of bad form is a bit of a surprise.
Seppi is a solid yet unspectacular player, but like most players in the top 30, he'll generally put away lower ranked guys fairly easily. He's been fairly 'meh' this year, but I'll back him to get the job done over a guy in terrible touch.
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ATP GENEVA
- Istomin to WIN - $1.75 - ONE STAKE
Nice price. Istomin is in a mini purple patch, beating Montanes, Kukushkin and Gabashvili (some decent clay players bar Kukushkin) before predictably coming undone against Berdych (he didn't get spanked, though). It's nice to see Mayer back on the tour because he's one of my favourites to watch, but he's getting beaten by anyone that's half decent at the moment. Istomin should be right.
- Ramos to WIN - $4.30 - HALF STAKE
A lot has been said and written about Wawrinka's performances in minor tournaments, so I won't go into it. Needless to say, Ramos is very much in with a chance, but his price doesn't really reflect that. I was going to go with his line, but decided instead on a small stake on his outright price. Also don't mind the OVERS (21.5) in this match, but that's not a stake play.
- Carreno Busta -4.5 games - $2 - ONE STAKE
I love CB so, so much. He wins when he's supposed to. That's it. No frills, no upsets, just puts away the players he should and loses to the players he should. Predictability is rare, so when you get a guy like CB, treasure that.
CB has really come into his own in the last couple months, winning 14 of his last 20 on clay and beating some quality players in the process. Cervantes' ranking flatters him slightly - he's an excellent challenger clay court player, but ATP players will beat him most times. Look for CB to put him away with little fuss in two sets.
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WTA NUREMBERG
- Siegemund -6.5 games - $1.83 - ONE STAKE
Very rarely will I lay six and a half on anyone other than the top players, but Sigemund's form warrants it. She has won 14 of her last 17 on clay this year, beating Keys, Halep, Vinci, Radwanska, Pliskova, Brengle and Kuznetsova on the surface. She has honestly looked almost unbeatable at times. When you're playing as well as she is, you don't want to stop, and I'm backing her to come out hard here. Laying big game amounts is a bit easier in womens, because the serve doesn't have as much of an impact.
- McHale to WIN - $1.80 - ONE STAKE
I tipped her as one of my favourites to win the tournament. McHale has a great serve and is in good form, winning 8 of her last 10, with two losses being to Williams and Begu. She's beaten (among others) Ivanovic, Pliskova and even Friedsam (her opponent today) just over two weeks ago.
Arruabarena x Beck - $3 - HALF STAKE
Just a bit of a hunch here. Beck should win but I don't like her line, and Arru beat Lisicki at the same tournament last year and has ranking points to defend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
MULTI
Tig x Stosur x Elias - $2.20 (WTA French Qualifiers, WTA Strasbourg, Challenger Mestre) - ONE STAKE
Tig's form has sort of come out of nowhere, but she was very impressive en route to the quarters in Madrid. A tall player with powerful ground strokes, she is quite a fair way ahead of King in terms of game play.
Not much to say about Stosur - I don't think her line is great but she should be winning this.
Elias is one of my go-to men on the challenger circuit. His opponent has lost 8 of his last 10 across all courts, and from having watched both of them - Elias is just far more consistent across both wings.
Cheers!
After a gain of over 4.5 units last night, I'm back again. I want to emphasise again that this is a LONG TERM thing, so don't go betting more than you can afford on any one of these tips, and make sure you cover all. They are lines - so theoretically they should be 50/50, but I seek out lines that I think are weighted more on either side to derive value.
If you're a little confused by the pricing system, you can convert it to the American system as follows:
1) Take the price, and multiply it by 100.
2) Subtract 100 from that.
3) Whack a + in front of it.
i.e. $3.50 -> 3.5 x 100 = 350 -> 350-100 = +250
If you don't want to do that every time, the decimal system is still fairly easy to follow. $2 is the same as +100, and $1.90 is evens, or what you guys would call -110. The number in front of the dollar sign is what you'd get if you put $1 on it i.e. if you have a price of $1.50 - putting $1 on that would return you $15, or $5 profit.
**Note, as a PSA, I take my prices and lines from either bet365 or sportsbet.com.au
---------------------------------------------------------------
ATP NICE
- Andreas Seppi -4.5 games - $2 - ONE STAKE
One of the better plays for the night in my opinion. This is not so much backing Seppi, but fading Munoz De La Nava (hereforward referred to as MDLN). MDLN has lost his last 5 in a row on (all on clay), his last 8 of 9 on clay, and last 10 of 11 across all surfaces. He had a great season last year, so this run of bad form is a bit of a surprise.
Seppi is a solid yet unspectacular player, but like most players in the top 30, he'll generally put away lower ranked guys fairly easily. He's been fairly 'meh' this year, but I'll back him to get the job done over a guy in terrible touch.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ATP GENEVA
- Istomin to WIN - $1.75 - ONE STAKE
Nice price. Istomin is in a mini purple patch, beating Montanes, Kukushkin and Gabashvili (some decent clay players bar Kukushkin) before predictably coming undone against Berdych (he didn't get spanked, though). It's nice to see Mayer back on the tour because he's one of my favourites to watch, but he's getting beaten by anyone that's half decent at the moment. Istomin should be right.
- Ramos to WIN - $4.30 - HALF STAKE
A lot has been said and written about Wawrinka's performances in minor tournaments, so I won't go into it. Needless to say, Ramos is very much in with a chance, but his price doesn't really reflect that. I was going to go with his line, but decided instead on a small stake on his outright price. Also don't mind the OVERS (21.5) in this match, but that's not a stake play.
- Carreno Busta -4.5 games - $2 - ONE STAKE
I love CB so, so much. He wins when he's supposed to. That's it. No frills, no upsets, just puts away the players he should and loses to the players he should. Predictability is rare, so when you get a guy like CB, treasure that.
CB has really come into his own in the last couple months, winning 14 of his last 20 on clay and beating some quality players in the process. Cervantes' ranking flatters him slightly - he's an excellent challenger clay court player, but ATP players will beat him most times. Look for CB to put him away with little fuss in two sets.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
WTA NUREMBERG
- Siegemund -6.5 games - $1.83 - ONE STAKE
Very rarely will I lay six and a half on anyone other than the top players, but Sigemund's form warrants it. She has won 14 of her last 17 on clay this year, beating Keys, Halep, Vinci, Radwanska, Pliskova, Brengle and Kuznetsova on the surface. She has honestly looked almost unbeatable at times. When you're playing as well as she is, you don't want to stop, and I'm backing her to come out hard here. Laying big game amounts is a bit easier in womens, because the serve doesn't have as much of an impact.
- McHale to WIN - $1.80 - ONE STAKE
I tipped her as one of my favourites to win the tournament. McHale has a great serve and is in good form, winning 8 of her last 10, with two losses being to Williams and Begu. She's beaten (among others) Ivanovic, Pliskova and even Friedsam (her opponent today) just over two weeks ago.
Arruabarena x Beck - $3 - HALF STAKE
Just a bit of a hunch here. Beck should win but I don't like her line, and Arru beat Lisicki at the same tournament last year and has ranking points to defend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
MULTI
Tig x Stosur x Elias - $2.20 (WTA French Qualifiers, WTA Strasbourg, Challenger Mestre) - ONE STAKE
Tig's form has sort of come out of nowhere, but she was very impressive en route to the quarters in Madrid. A tall player with powerful ground strokes, she is quite a fair way ahead of King in terms of game play.
Not much to say about Stosur - I don't think her line is great but she should be winning this.
Elias is one of my go-to men on the challenger circuit. His opponent has lost 8 of his last 10 across all courts, and from having watched both of them - Elias is just far more consistent across both wings.
Cheers!
Rough couple of days, but I'm pretty optimistic. If Thiem wins that's huge.
