[Lightning]

**These will be edited as the night goes on.

After a gain of over 4.5 units last night, I'm back again. I want to emphasise again that this is a LONG TERM thing, so don't go betting more than you can afford on any one of these tips, and make sure you cover all. They are lines - so theoretically they should be 50/50, but I seek out lines that I think are weighted more on either side to derive value.


If you're a little confused by the pricing system, you can convert it to the American system as follows:

1) Take the price, and multiply it by 100.
2) Subtract 100 from that.
3) Whack a + in front of it.

i.e. $3.50 -> 3.5 x 100 = 350 -> 350-100 = +250

If you don't want to do that every time, the decimal system is still fairly easy to follow. $2 is the same as +100, and $1.90 is evens, or what you guys would call -110. The number in front of the dollar sign is what you'd get if you put $1 on it i.e. if you have a price of $1.50 - putting $1 on that would return you $15, or $5 profit.


**Note, as a PSA, I take my prices and lines from either bet365 or sportsbet.com.au



---------------------------------------------------------------

ATP NICE

- Andreas Seppi -4.5 games - $2 - ONE STAKE

One of the better plays for the night in my opinion. This is not so much backing Seppi, but fading Munoz De La Nava (hereforward referred to as MDLN). MDLN has lost his last 5 in a row on (all on clay), his last 8 of 9 on clay, and last 10 of 11 across all surfaces. He had a great season last year, so this run of bad form is a bit of a surprise.

Seppi is a solid yet unspectacular player, but like most players in the top 30, he'll generally put away lower ranked guys fairly easily. He's been fairly 'meh' this year, but I'll back him to get the job done over a guy in terrible touch.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATP GENEVA

- Istomin to WIN - $1.75 - ONE STAKE

Nice price. Istomin is in a mini purple patch, beating Montanes, Kukushkin and Gabashvili (some decent clay players bar Kukushkin) before predictably coming undone against Berdych (he didn't get spanked, though). It's nice to see Mayer back on the tour because he's one of my favourites to watch, but he's getting beaten by anyone that's half decent at the moment. Istomin should be right.

- Ramos to WIN - $4.30 - HALF STAKE

A lot has been said and written about Wawrinka's performances in minor tournaments, so I won't go into it. Needless to say, Ramos is very much in with a chance, but his price doesn't really reflect that. I was going to go with his line, but decided instead on a small stake on his outright price. Also don't mind the OVERS (21.5) in this match, but that's not a stake play.

- Carreno Busta -4.5 games - $2 - ONE STAKE
I love CB so, so much. He wins when he's supposed to. That's it. No frills, no upsets, just puts away the players he should and loses to the players he should. Predictability is rare, so when you get a guy like CB, treasure that.
CB has really come into his own in the last couple months, winning 14 of his last 20 on clay and beating some quality players in the process. Cervantes' ranking flatters him slightly - he's an excellent challenger clay court player, but ATP players will beat him most times. Look for CB to put him away with little fuss in two sets.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------


WTA NUREMBERG


- Siegemund -6.5 games - $1.83 - ONE STAKE
Very rarely will I lay six and a half on anyone other than the top players, but Sigemund's form warrants it. She has won 14 of her last 17 on clay this year, beating Keys, Halep, Vinci, Radwanska, Pliskova, Brengle and Kuznetsova on the surface. She has honestly looked almost unbeatable at times. When you're playing as well as she is, you don't want to stop, and I'm backing her to come out hard here. Laying big game amounts is a bit easier in womens, because the serve doesn't have as much of an impact.


- McHale to WIN - $1.80 - ONE STAKE
I tipped her as one of my favourites to win the tournament. McHale has a great serve and is in good form, winning 8 of her last 10, with two losses being to Williams and Begu. She's beaten (among others) Ivanovic, Pliskova and even Friedsam (her opponent today) just over two weeks ago.


Arruabarena x Beck - $3 - HALF STAKE
Just a bit of a hunch here. Beck should win but I don't like her line, and Arru beat Lisicki at the same tournament last year and has ranking points to defend.


----------------------------------------------------------------------

MULTI

Tig x Stosur x Elias - $2.20 (WTA French Qualifiers, WTA Strasbourg, Challenger Mestre) - ONE STAKE

Tig's form has sort of come out of nowhere, but she was very impressive en route to the quarters in Madrid. A tall player with powerful ground strokes, she is quite a fair way ahead of King in terms of game play.

Not much to say about Stosur - I don't think her line is great but she should be winning this.

Elias is one of my go-to men on the challenger circuit. His opponent has lost 8 of his last 10 across all courts, and from having watched both of them - Elias is just far more consistent across both wings.




Cheers!

[Lightning]

Also think Kukushkin has a chance against Bellucci. One for tomorrow:

ITF KURUME
Storm Sanders to WIN - Not sure of her price but should be winning this.

[therealdealau]

Can Seppi pull his finger out ?

[Lightning]

Posts will be slightly later tonight I think guys. I'm broadcasting this afternoon.

[Lightning]

TENNIS TIPS


Lads I'd love to give write ups but today I've had a full day of broadcasting on air (radio), so I'm exhausted. The same thought is being put into each of these, however. As a word of warning about Simon - his line looks tasty but I can't justify betting on him until I see his level of effort.


WTA NUREMBERG - ALL ONE STAKE
- Siegemund -5.5 games - $2.1


ATP GENEVA - ALL ONE STAKE
- Ferrer -4.5 games - $2.1
- Garcia Lopez -4.5 games - $1.9
- Bellucci to WIN - $1.9


MULTI
Misaki Doi -3.5 games x Mayer/Thiem OVER 21.5 games x Gulbis to WIN - $7.3 - HALF STAKE

Cheers

[Lightning]

Storm Sanders also won, which is great if anyone got on.

[Lightning]

WTA NUREMBURG

- Friedsam to WIN - $1.80 - TWO STAKES
- Duque-Marino to WIN - $2.30 - ONE STAKE

WTA STRASBOURG

- Kudryatseva +4.5 games - ONE STAKE

ATP NICE

- Simon/Zverev OVER 22.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
- Kevin Anderson to WIN - $1.71 - ONE STAKE

MULTI

- Pella x Kuznetsov - $1.80 - ONE STAKE
- Kuznetsov -3.5 games x Delbonis to WIN x Anderson to WIN 2-0 x Ferrer -3.5 games - $15 - QUARTER STAKE

If I get time, I'll post explanations later.

[Lightning]

THE MIRACLE ON CLAY! Simon had three bp's in the set regular, screws all of them up. I'm thinking... f*ck. 5-0 down in the tiebreak, I'm about to pack my bags and he reels off four in a row! Two match points, my stream is buffering all over the place because I've got sh*t tier internet. He manages to get to 7-6 and then serves it out. Incredible.

[fitguy67]

TENNIS TIPS
warning about Simon...I can't justify betting on him until I see his level of effort.

Simon seems to have just passed the effort test.

Down a set and down 0-5 in TB, he rallies to win TB 8-6 and force a deciding set. (Cool to note that the TB was the 22nd game and the closing number was 22.5.)

[jtoler]

Pathetic pusher frustrated Zverev.

[Lightning]

Simon seems to have just passed the effort test.

Down a set and down 0-5 in TB, he rallies to win TB 8-6 and force a deciding set. (Cool to note that the TB was the 22nd game and the closing number was 22.5.)

Haha spot on! Needed him to pull through and he did. Don't even really mind what happens now. Shame I can't watch it because my internet is terrible.

[Lightning]

TENNIS TIPS

I know yesterday and the day before have been rough, but unfortunately, that's what's going to happen sometimes. There's a perfect article I found that explains my method of betting, so I'm going to quote it here:

"Don’t think about finding winning bets, think about finding value.

Value is where you get better odds on an outcome than chance suggests you should. If you do this consistently, you can make a profit in the long run; if you don’t, you won’t. As an early betting mentor always used to say to me, “Betting’s simple. Back a coin toss at 2.20. Lay it at 1.80.” Okay, as far as sayings go, it’s not the catchiest, but the logic is rock solid.

Over the years, working with a number of professional gamblers, it became clear that most of them do not think in terms of whether something will win. They don’t even think in terms of odds. Their prime focus is always about working out the likelihood of an outcome occurring and then, once they have done this, looking at the odds that are being offered. If they can get a better price than they should, they bet; if they can’t, they don’t.

Let’s take a real example to make this concept clearer. Prior to the US Open final in 2015, an acquaintance of mine estimated that Novak Djokovic had a 65% chance of beating Roger Federer. (I will later outline some of the ways that you can more accurately work out these percentages yourself). By dividing 1 by this figure, before multiplying it by 100, he was able to determine the odds that Djokovic should have been. ((1 ÷ 65) x 100 = 1.54).

The market disagreed, offering a much more generous 1.82, and my acquaintance therefore had a large bet, with a happy outcome.

Without wanting to do this point to death, it’s important to note that, although he thought Djokovic was by far the most likely winner of that match, he would not have had the bet if the odds had not been significantly higher than his “true” odds of 1.54, and would have happily laid Djokovic had they been significantly shorter."

- https://www.betfair.com.au/…/tennis-betting-tips-strategie…/

So to sum up - I choose things that I believe are mispriced to our advantage. Just because they are mispriced though, does not automatically guarantee they'll win. However - over the long term - we will come out ahead.

Anyway, onto the good stuff.


ATP GENEVA
- Wawrinka/Rosol UNDER 20 (PINNACLE) - $1.98 - ONE STAKE

I had doubts about Wawrinka. I held on laying games against him for two games, fearing he wouldn't try. I had reasons to be cautious, but I was ultimately wrong. He is back, and in beast mode. If you haven't seen highlights of the match, go and watch them. His serving was pretty good, backed up by some lethal shot making. He destroyed Busta in the second set and CB has played very well lately. Rosol has been playing well, but if Wawrinka is on - nobody can stop him. Considering -5 games is $1.75, this is a nice price.

ATP NICE - ALL ONE STAKE
- Sousa +2.5 games - $2.01 (PINNACLE)

I believe this game should be around evens, so I'm going to take the value of Sousa. He frustrates me quite a bit, but his performances have oozed consistency lately. He seems to do the impossible on clay - rushing people with his style. He gets to the ball early, which is a little off putting. I was tossing up between overs and this, but I think Sousa could win it under the mark of 22.5 games. I think Sousa is even quite good value to win the comp from here.

- Thiem -5.5 games (PINNACLE) - $2.1

Mannarino played well against Pella, but Thiem is a completely different beast. He should absolutely destroy Mannarino, whose serve is one of the weaker parts of his game.

WTA NUREMBERG
- Kiki Bertens -2.5 games (PINNACLE) - $1.98 - ONE STAKE

I'm really not sure why Kiki isn't more highly ranked. She's won her last 5, 8 of her last 10, 12 of her last 15 and 16 of her last 20. She has beaten a number of good players, and beaten them convincingly. If you take away the walkover from Goerges in the last game, her form isn't really that impressive, with 6 of her last 10 and 7 of her last 14. The best player she has beaten is Stosur.

I think Kiki will have the confidence and form to take this one out fairly easily.

WTA STRASBOURG - ONE STAKE EACH
- Garcia -4 games (PINNACLE) - $1.97

I debated long and hard over this one, because there is value either way. Razzano has had a run of impressive results in not only this tournament, but the few before it. HOWEVER, this tournament has been in France, which means more home support AND she had a bit of luck with Puig withdrawing. Garcia is undoubtably the better player, and will be looking to grab her first title in 2016.

- Mladenovic/Lucic Baroni OVER 21.5 - $1.943 (PINNACLE)

Baroni has won all of her last five, but Mladenovic has also scored tough victories over Brengle, Riske and Kudrayvtseva - all good clay players. Baroni has the better form, but the crowd will cheer the Frenchwoman on. I see this being another close battle, and possibly being decided in a third set.

FRENCH OPEN QUALIFIERS
- Struff -3.5 games - $1.66 - TWO STAKES

Massive value. Struff is the form player of the qualifiers at the moment, winning six of his last seven. Clay is his favourite surface and I'm tipping him to destroy a lukewarm Martin.

- Marsel Ilhan to WIN - $2.6 - ONE STAKE

Large bit of value here. Ilhan has beaten Berankis and Stakhovsky in his last four, and yet is an outsider?

- Trungelitti to WIN - $2.1 - ONE STAKE

Same applies here - Fabbiano is terrible on clay, winning four of his last 10 on the surface and having a generally 'meh' record before that. Trungelitti is on the up, winnning four of his last five - all against quality opposition.

- Louisa Chirico x Radek Stepanek - $1.94 - ONE STAKE


Cheers!

[Don West]

it's a lot easier to run a useful thread if you keep accurate track, rather than just keep slingin' plays with only a vague sense of "how'm i doing"...

my spreadsheet is accurate, so barring any data-entry errors (which is why i posted all the details above...so you can confirm them with your records...i had to rely on flash-score for the grading and very easy to screw up here)...the -6.17u thread total can be assumed accurate...and regular updating will henceforth be easy

You should do that for the entire site. Clear this whole place out by the end of the weekend.

[Don West]

Fitguy, where are your posts?

[frugalgambler]

You should do that for the entire site. Clear this whole place out by the end of the weekend.

What are you, SBR police ? The more single threads the better, and I am not talking about daily useless threads by people like xdodger and lilpete. This is actually a good thread with coherent write-ups. What to do with those picks and writeups is up to punters.

[Don West]

What are you, SBR police ? The more single threads the better, and I am not talking about daily useless threads by people like xdodger and lilpete. This is actually a good thread with coherent write-ups. What to do with those picks and writeups is up to punters.

I agree with you about the single threads. I was talking about the whole site in general.

[fitguy67]

actually my intent was helpful...but the "information overkill" of cut & pasting from an excel (to simply allow for a visual cross-check of my data-entry) made it look as if i was announcing a dictate from BigBrother...so i requested to pull them down...

long and short of it was to tell OP that his "W-L, U" tally for the first three days = 6-13, -6.17...in case he wanted to know and maintain further updates going forward...
__________

wasn't criticizing in the least...on the contrary, just trying to help this thread along as lots of good threads die around sbr when the capper loses track of the record and gets tired of people (sometimes fully-fledged trolls) asking for updates...the basketball forum in particular is awash with well-meaning and quite-talented cappers saying fukkit because of the constant implication that their lack of attention to bookkeeping is somehow malevolent (consistent with a devious plan to misrepresent now and "go tout" later) and not merely the result of choosing to spend more of the time (that they give to the forum for free!) capping future plays rather than archiving past plays

__________

i like the "long-term value" approach expressed above...so let the grind continue...and good luck to everyone on their plays

[frugalgambler]

I agree with you about the single threads. I was talking about the whole site in general.

3-4 weeks ago the SBR tennis subforum was almost dead, with only Jeff posting. I like it much better now with more writeups and discussions. As for the noise in other subforums, it is not too overwhelming; some of it just attention-seeking, some of it is generated on purpose to boost the traffic, but there are a lot of good threads in NBA/MLB forums.

Anyway, GL OP. I hope you can turn this around. It seems like WTA has not been kind to you, but you are doing OK with ATP.

[fitguy67]

damn, a lot of bad 1-game beats today...you were on the right side of all your "faves-hc" bets today but only one (Thiem) managed to cover and cash...the rest were heart-breakers...

good thing all 3 of your ML's (two singles and one double) cashed to balance everything into a no-harm-done day

[Lightning]

Cheers guys - I do know that the -6 looks bad in isolation, but I've come off the back of a +20 unit month so it had to happen at one point haha. Like Jeff, he was going along at +24% ROI at one point I think, got smashed down to 6 I think it is now. When you're playing around with lines, it's almost impossible not to have streaks of some point. Some times you think you're invincible, and then you get beaten down.

What's frustrating is that a lot of games panned out okay and then some horrible last sets mental lapses screwed it up i.e. Sousa. Bertens won but I undenrestimated Goerges, and Mladenovic was just plain horrible. Hard to see how she beat her last three opponents.

Anyway, onwards and upwards, I'll have some more out for tonight soon.

[Lightning]

And thank you for your record keeping, fit guy. I can imagine that would be helpful to those who don't know how/don't have the patience to do it (it does get annoying sometimes, but it's the only way you can improve). Just so you do know I do keep my own records as well - http://imgur.com/ipj5sxQ - is an example taken from my spreadsheet.

[Lightning]

TENNIS - ALL ONE STAKE




Sorry guys - wanted to do write ups but I only got up to two games on my break. Will analyse the French tonight and have futures out tonight/tomorrow.




ATP GENEVA




- Wawrinka -3.5 games




Decided to run with Wawrinka. I've watched his last three games and he's hitting them so cleanly and serving very well. Cilic has a great serve, but the clay negates some of the speed and power. At home, with the crowd at his back and needing some form heading into the French, I think Wawrinka wins and covers.




ATP NICE




- Thiem/Zverev OVER 21.5 games




There is no way that Thiem should be priced at $1.25. That is far too short considering the way Zverev has been playing. I could see Zverev even winning this. The value is with the German and I'm taking advantage with a play on the overs.




WTA NUREMBURG




- Lucic-Baroni to WIN - $2




WTA STRASBOURG




- Duque-Marino to WIN - $2.70




MESTRE CHALLENGER




De Loore x Lorenzi - $5.26 - HALF STAKE

[Don West]

Doing excellent work. Keep it up!

[Lightning]

Cheers mate Rough couple of days, but I'm pretty optimistic. If Thiem wins that's huge.

[fitguy67]

and with Thiem's win, your last slate of outright/futures bets ends solidly in the money

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...t-futures.html

[fitguy67]

hey lightning,

what bet-size protocol you use, re: the stated units?
*American (dogs to risk/faves to win), or
*European (everything to risk)?

[Lightning]

Sorry mate - I don't understand what exactly you mean - could you clarify?

[Lightning]

TENNIS TIPS
Because of intense futures study, there will be no write up today. Because of Thiem getting up I only lost a few units in a horror week, but I'm hoping to smash the French. Any questions about specific games, let me know.

MENS

- Millman/Isner OVER 36.5 games - $1.80 - TWO STAKES
- Albot to WIN - $5 (PINNACLE) - QUARTER STAKE
- Donald Young to WIN - $2.1 - ONE STAKE
- Montanes to WIN - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
- Sock/Haase OVER 35.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
- Raonic -8.5 games - $2.1 - ONE STAKE
- Edmund/Basilashvili OVER 37.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
-Nishikori -10.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE

WOMENS

- Kovinic to WIN - QUARTER STAKE
- Sorribes Tormo +3.5 games - $1.72 - ONE STAKE
- Watson -3.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE

CHALLENGER MESTRE

- Zeballos/Elias OVER 21.5 games - $1.83

[Jeff_Black]

Clarifying the above post

They are basically reverses

European you risk 1u @ 1.83 to return 1.83u (win 0.83u)
American you risk 1.2u @ -120 to win 1u

[RMoney22]

TENNIS TIPS
Because of intense futures study, there will be no write up today. Because of Thiem getting up I only lost a few units in a horror week, but I'm hoping to smash the French. Any questions about specific games, let me know.

MENS

- Millman/Isner OVER 36.5 games - $1.80 - TWO STAKES
- Albot to WIN - $5 (PINNACLE) - QUARTER STAKE
- Donald Young to WIN - $2.1 - ONE STAKE
- Montanes to WIN - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
- Sock/Haase OVER 35.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
- Raonic -8.5 games - $2.1 - ONE STAKE
- Edmund/Basilashvili OVER 37.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
-Nishikori -10.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE

WOMENS

- Kovinic to WIN - QUARTER STAKE
- Sorribes Tormo +3.5 games - $1.72 - ONE STAKE
- Watson -3.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE

CHALLENGER MESTRE

- Zeballos/Elias OVER 21.5 games - $1.83

Lightning,

First off, thank you for posting your plays! I had a question about the Young/Gabasvili match. I can't even comprehend why Gabashvili is the favorite. I want to make a pretty large wager, but the only thing holding me back, is that is seems WAY too easy. What are your thoughts?

Thanks again!

[Don West]

Lightning,

First off, thank you for posting your plays! I had a question about the Young/Gabasvili match. I can't even comprehend why Gabashvili is the favorite. I want to make a pretty large wager, but the only thing holding me back, is that is seems WAY too easy. What are your thoughts?

Thanks again!

Donald Young and way too easy, and you capitalized that word?

[RMoney22]

Donald Young and way too easy, and you capitalized that word?

Huh? What do you mean?

[Don West]

What do you mean?

[Lightning]

Clarifying the above post

They are basically reverses

European you risk 1u @ 1.83 to return 1.83u (win 0.83u)
American you risk 1.2u @ -120 to win 1u

Ah. I see now, thanks Jeff. In that case, I'm using the european method i.e. if I give $1.9 and put one stake on it, I would expect to get 0.9 units profit.

[Lightning]

Lightning,

First off, thank you for posting your plays! I had a question about the Young/Gabasvili match. I can't even comprehend why Gabashvili is the favorite. I want to make a pretty large wager, but the only thing holding me back, is that is seems WAY too easy. What are your thoughts?

Thanks again!

Thanks for following mate! The support is appreciated.

Re. Young - I agree with you about not being favourite, and that's why I'm backing him. Gabashvili has lost his last 5 and 9 of his last 10 and Young has shown some recent form. Young is quite consistent and I expect him to just let Gabashvili make the mistakes. Most of all though, I think the odds should be the other way around, and because of that value factor, I recommended the play.