1. #106
    Patrick McIrish
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    Quote Originally Posted by durito View Post
    First of all you are ignoring everything I've ever told you.

    College sports are most certainly easier markets to beat, thus the lower limits. This is a point I tried to explain to you this summer without success. But, you are still approaching it in the wrong way.

    The fact that underdogs win on occasion doesn't make any sport any more or less "predictable" than any other.

    If the closing money line at pinnacle is an efficient line, the Browns were expected to win the game last night 25.1% of the time. That hardly makes it an unexpected win. If you had Giants -280 last night, would you still consider it a bad bet?

    By the same measure, Tampa Bay had a 36.2% chance of winning and Boston 63.8%.

    You freak out way too much over each game you lose and thus all the "it's fixed" or "I'm unlucky" posts. Advantage sports betting is about numbers. If you are consistently getting the best numbers and managing your risk properly, you will win.

    I lost a few teasers with the giants last night, I won some with browns +9. I lost Lester -170 and won some with tampa +1.5. Overall I took a loss on these two games, but I would make all the bets again.

    You don't see me flipping out every time a bad call or missed free throw costs me a bet, in fact I really don't care. While I'm sure many people lost it when they lost Houston +3.5 last week, I just marked it down a loss in my database and moved on to the next game. You are going to have unlucky loses and unlucky wins. You will probably remember the loses more and therefore think everything is stacked against you. It's not. Learn what you can and move on to the next game and work a little harder.


    Good post. I'm not sure why some argue with logic instead of just trying to understand it. There is so much quality information at this site that people ignore in favor of emotional outbursts and overreaction to short term results it's almost comical. I applaud the few guys that keep trying but I think it's hopeless for some, you can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink.

    SBR Founder Join Date: 9/15/2005


  2. #107
    durito
    escarabajo negro
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    Quote Originally Posted by bettilimbroke999 View Post
    If it's a D+ book don't they just keep your money anyway?
    Sometimes.

    What would you prefer:

    100% chance of winning and a 10% chance of getting stiffed

    or

    10% chance of winning and a 0% chance of getting stiffed

  3. #108
    bettilimbroke999
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    Quote Originally Posted by durito View Post
    Sometimes.

    What would you prefer:

    100% chance of winning and a 10% chance of getting stiffed

    or

    10% chance of winning and a 0% chance of getting stiffed
    LOL Nice that they sometimes pay and sometimes don't, not exactly a mystery how you get rated D+

    I'll open a book with NYG +50 if you don't mind getting stiffed, send your whole roll please

  4. #109
    durito
    escarabajo negro
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    If you can manage your risk, C to D rated books are the easiest places to make money. My hold is much higher at these books than at the A+ books.

  5. #110
    bettilimbroke999
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    Well maybe so, I just wouldn't like to lose even when I win if you know what I mean. Managing the percentage of the time that a book will stiff me doesn't sound like much fun.

  6. #111
    durito
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    Unless someone else is sharing your IP and betting there, you have little to worry about at SIA.

  7. #112
    Jayy
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    the house always win

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