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1. This is along the lines of what I assumed you were referring to. And although you can obviously work out an advantage if there's moneyline to spread inefficiency, an objective win prob is not implied. Hence the spread could have been well off, and in hindsight it probably was.

2. Originally Posted by betplom
How does one determine the probability (ie 63.8%) with any certainty?
You work out the probability that team X will win (best to use some kind of model behind this rather than using The Prick's dartboard method something unquantifiable). If you calculate that the probability that X wins is greater than the probability implied by the odds, then it's a "good" bet. The higher the difference, the more "good" the bet.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/Betting+Tool...Converter.aspx

This helps with comparing spreads and MLs and the Superbowl example.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/Betting+Tool...Converter.aspx

SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005

3. Originally Posted by reno cool
This is along the lines of what I assumed you were referring to. And although you can obviously work out an advantage if there's moneyline to spread inefficiency, an objective win prob is not implied. Hence the spread could have been well off, and in hindsight it probably was.
It's not hindsight. Because you move in with a 15 outer on the flop (54%) and you don't hit, does that make it the wrong play? No. You have to think long term.

4. Originally Posted by bettilimbroke999
I get what your saying I just don't believe you can calculate that accurately what the true win percentage is, no way of saying Lester will blow up in this game 37.7% of the time and Garza will pitch great 62.3%, sounds like BS to me
i) If you're not comparing your estimation of the true probability to the probability implied by the odds then how can you ascertain if you have a value bet or not?

ii) And if you can't do part i) then how are you going to be a long term winner?

SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005

5. Originally Posted by MonkeyF0cker
You do so with a win probability model.
all models are different. Because they are based on different factors. You can have two models picking opposite sides (or different win%) and both be technically correct.

6. Absolutely. The prediction accuracy of your model is directly correlated to your level of success.

7. Originally Posted by MonkeyF0cker
It's not hindsight. Because you move in with a 15 outer on the flop (54%) and you don't hit, does that make it the wrong play? No. You have to think long term.
all in with a 15 outer is the wrong play if they have trips you are way behind

SBR Founder Join Date: 9/20/2005

8. A 15 outer is NOT a 15 outer if the other player has a set. But thanks for arguing semantics.

9. It's not hindsight. Because you move in with a 15 outer on the flop (54%) and you don't hit, does that make it the wrong play? No. You have to think long term.
Another example that is related but shows a different point is getting 7-1 on a heart flush draw in limit hold'em. You call, believing you have 9 outs (ignore implied odds for this example). You miss, and the other guy takes down the pot. After the hand is over, two players tell you they folded hearts preflop and that you really only had 5 outs. Now, with this information you wouldn't go back and make the call but your call still had +EV based on all available information at the time you made your decision and the information you found out after the hand is irrelevant. And it's the same thing in sports betting. Before the season, based on all available info, if you could get Clemson -2.5 against Bama, that was a great bet. Based on information now available Bama would be a favorite, but that information is irrelevant to analyzing past bets as that information was not available at the time you made the bet and how you interpret available information is what is important in gambling. Hopefully that makes sense as I'm not sure I elucidated my point well.

10. Originally Posted by tacomax
i) If you're not comparing your estimation of the true probability to the probability implied by the odds then how can you ascertain if you have a value bet or not?

ii) And if you can't do part i) then how are you going to be a long term winner?
I'm just good at comparing past results and analyzing stats to pick winners in NCAAF, I guess I'm too lazy to do all that probability modeling, I'm like Brandon Lang in Two for the Money I don't need a computer to pick my winners, I'm smarter than a computer

11. You can have two models picking opposite sides (or different win%) and both be technically correct.
Well they can both be winning models but they can't both be correct. One or both would not be properly analyzing all of the available information.

12. I'm just good at comparing past results and analyzing stats to pick winners in NCAAF, I guess I'm too lazy to do all that probability modeling, I'm like Brandon Lang in Two for the Money I don't need a computer to pick my winners, I'm smarter than a computer
Or you picked the random sport you've run hot in. I wonder which is more likely.

13. Originally Posted by donjuan
Well they can both be winning models but they can't both be correct. One or both would not be properly analyzing all of the available information.
There's no limit to relevant info. All the way down to what a player had for breakfast. Handicappers always work on new ideas which prove more or less important.

14. Relevant does not make it prognostic. There is a great deal of statistical data that can actually be pejorative to the accuracy of forecasting in your model.

15. There's no limit to relevant info. All the way down to what a player had for breakfast. Handicappers always work on new ideas which prove more or less important.
Emphasis on the words "relevant" and "available".

16. by relevent I do mean prognostic. The one with the most meaningful data will have a more accurate prediction. I do not believe that any model has close to all such data.
Thats why advancement in the field is always possible.

17. Don't you think that the time spent researching what a player ate for breakfast would be better spent line shopping?

18. Originally Posted by reno cool
by relevent I do mean prognostic. The one with the most meaningful data will have a more accurate prediction. I do not believe that any model has close to all such data.
Thats why advancement in the field is always possible.
True to some extent. There is a limit to the available data that is both quantifiable and prognostic, however.

19. Originally Posted by donjuan
Don't you think that the time spent researching what a player ate for breakfast would be better spent line shopping?
of course. line shopping is very significant.

I simply want to suggest that handicapping is not bound by any prevailing wisdom. There can always be new ways of finding and sorting info that prove superior.

20. Originally Posted by bettilimbroke999
I was wrong, MLB AND NFL are impossible to beat, only value in sports betting is in college games, I've been owning my bookie on Saturday and giving every fukin cent and then some back on Sunday. If you like betting coinflips at 55/50 then by all means bet the NFL and if you like taking -200 on Lester b/c he's solid as a fukin rock then watchin him give up 5 runs in the first 3 innings and lose 8-1 then by all means bet MLB. As for me, I like money, so I'm gonna bet NCAAB and NCAAF +EV bets instead betting this fukin pro BS where they play like god today then play like dogshit tomorrow
Yeah, considering discipline is the key in surviving as a sports bettor or handicapper I have decided to never bet nfl or mlb again. Im convinced unless you have inside knowlege of something going on in the long run you want make a profit in NFL especially. I took the ova in the second half what looked to be a lock to me and they made sure that wouldn't happen. Ely comes out and throws an interception (no where close to his man) in the first possession. Last two Giant possessions they walk the football up the field then throw an interception (next to last possession)and run the ball once within 12 yards of the goal line when that's what got them all the way down the field (both of the last 2 possessions). Im convinced they were told to do that.

Ive been doing this long enough to understand you take the wins with the losses but I can also see when something is a hoax, fraud, or fix . Everyone is screaming Kimbo Slice is and was a fraud but noone ever calls these professional football and baseball leagues on their fixes.

21. Smart move thegreat, I am tellin you I am a long-time sports gambler and I know many sports gamblers that bet frequently and all of them get killed at NFL, I don't even know anyone other than myself and the guys on here that bet MLB but just watching the recent games Sabathia meltdown, Lester meltdown and watching trash pitchers give up 1 run while the aces just walk batters and serve up homers you know that game is the king of inconsistency. How are you going to predict the Reggie Bush is going to outplay LT or vice versa, there is no way to predict the NFL hell Browns hadn't won a game and NYG hadn't lost a game and Browns right on cue destroyed the NYG and my wallet. What's the fukin sense of it, take the worst team in the league against the best? Would you take the worst college team ML against Alabama? Of course not and that's why it's more predictable, you already know who's going to win, it's virtually a foregone conclusion now all you need to do is judge the "style" of game they bring to the table to determine by how many, whether they launch the ball and run up the score or run the ball and consume the clock, whether their defense wins the games or their offense etc., hell in NFL you can't even be sure the best team will beat the worst (in MLB worst wins 1/3 of the time against the best) so how can you make a guess as to what the correct side of a 7 1/2 pt spread is? Take the worst team in the league +7 1/2 sounds retarded against the best team, but then you worry giving up more than a TD in the NFL so you take the best team ML and get blown out 35-14 by the worst team . NFL/MLB is nothing but heartbreaking losses and stresses, bet NCAAF and NCAAB and win for the year.

22. the Browns were not winless, and these two teams had the same record last year, called perception vs. reality

SBR Founder Join Date: 9/20/2005

23. Originally Posted by bettilimbroke999
I'm like Brandon Lang in Two for the Money I don't need a computer to pick my winners, I'm smarter than a computer
This is probably one of the all-time stupidest comments ever posted on any forum in the history of the internet.

24. [
What's the fukin sense of it, take the worst team in the league against the best? Would you take the worst college team ML against Alabama?
No money line would be posted in that theoretical game, but several four touchdown underdogs have won outright in NCAAF this year.

The Brownies were about 3-1 dogs. 3-1 ain't no prohibitive favorite, noob.

25. Originally Posted by bettilimbroke999
Unfukinreal, took NYG ML and couldn't even fukin cash a fukin lock NFL ticket on ML undefeated best team versus the worst team, wtf is goin on why is every fukin game I bet on rigged, 35-14 Browns unfukinbelievable, the Browns had only scored 4 TDs all year until playing the best team in the NFL when they score 4 TDS IN ONE GAME

I GIVE UP, I WILL NEVER BET OVER 20 BUCKS ON AN NFL GAME AGAIN, NFL SUCKS
only speaking on this post (didn't read the rest..)

there were plenty of OTHER posts saying browns win.. PAY ATTENTION.. no game is rigged.. you just picked a loser.. welcome to the squares... plenty of room.. and your money is ALWAYS welcome..

though i bet the browns and over.. and i had the NYG and under for the whole week.. READ!!!! I changed my mind..

Robust

26. Originally Posted by bettilimbroke999
Unfukinreal, took NYG ML and couldn't even fukin cash a fukin lock NFL ticket on ML undefeated best team versus the worst team, wtf is goin on why is every fukin game I bet on rigged, 35-14 Browns unfukinbelievable, the Browns had only scored 4 TDs all year until playing the best team in the NFL when they score 4 TDS IN ONE GAME

I GIVE UP, I WILL NEVER BET OVER 20 BUCKS ON AN NFL GAME AGAIN, NFL SUCKS
Karma's a wicked nasty bitch. Maybe if you made nice, your fortune would improve.

27. Originally Posted by bettilimbroke999
Unfukinreal, took NYG ML and couldn't even fukin cash a fukin lock NFL ticket on ML undefeated best team versus the worst team, wtf is goin on why is every fukin game I bet on rigged, 35-14 Browns unfukinbelievable, the Browns had only scored 4 TDs all year until playing the best team in the NFL when they score 4 TDS IN ONE GAME

I GIVE UP, I WILL NEVER BET OVER 20 BUCKS ON AN NFL GAME AGAIN, NFL SUCKS
I picked the Browns because 1) they were playing at home 2) 8 points is a lot in the NFL 3) the Giants were undefeated and didn't need to win and 4) the Browns were 1-3 and needed a win.

If the Giants were at home I would have probably brought the line down to 6.5 and went with New York, but I did get burned on the Giants against the Bengals earlier this year, too.

Generally I pick Parlays instead of single bets, but I did hit on San Diego -6 Sunday night and Cleveland +8 Monday night. But I'm starting to realize you can't keep betting favorites "on the road" when they're laying more than a TD. Sometimes it works if the other team is just plain dominant, but many times when a team needs a win (like San Diego at home, or Cleveland), they get the job done.

28. I lost big Sunday night on the Pats, had a good day sun but with bad money magement I bet way too much on the Pats to cover (got greedy I guess) they got blown out. I was so disgusted I made my wager on the Browns immediately after that game. My thought was getting 8 points at home on Monday night football in the NFL, I'll take my chances. I didnt want to wait to place my bet Monday because I was afraid that with all the Giants hype going into the game I may change my mind and there was a couple times yesterday I thought why did I pick the the Browns? Anyway there where more and more guys posting on here who (if you follow their picks they are right more often than not esp on these type of so called "trap games") going with Cleveland and that made me feel better about my pick. So I guess my advice is 1. Never go against a home dog at night esp 2. Dont get caught up in all the hype about a great team cant lose, all these guys are good. 3. Pay attention to these forums and certain post, they know alot about sports gambling and they will steer you right,(not always granted but most of the time they will give you enough clues that will help ya. You see this every week, my last man standing is already down to 15 people 100 started. Its not surprizing at all in this league when there's an upset.

29. betting on big road favs on MNF= the end of your bankroll

NEVER LOAD UP ON ROAD FAVS ON MONDAY NIGHT

never....crazy things happen on mnf

30. Originally Posted by bettilimbroke999
Smart move thegreat, I am tellin you I am a long-time sports gambler and I know many sports gamblers that bet frequently and all of them get killed at NFL, I don't even know anyone other than myself and the guys on here that bet MLB but just watching the recent games Sabathia meltdown, Lester meltdown and watching trash pitchers give up 1 run while the aces just walk batters and serve up homers you know that game is the king of inconsistency. How are you going to predict the Reggie Bush is going to outplay LT or vice versa, there is no way to predict the NFL hell Browns hadn't won a game and NYG hadn't lost a game and Browns right on cue destroyed the NYG and my wallet. What's the fukin sense of it, take the worst team in the league against the best? Would you take the worst college team ML against Alabama? Of course not and that's why it's more predictable, you already know who's going to win, it's virtually a foregone conclusion now all you need to do is judge the "style" of game they bring to the table to determine by how many, whether they launch the ball and run up the score or run the ball and consume the clock, whether their defense wins the games or their offense etc., hell in NFL you can't even be sure the best team will beat the worst (in MLB worst wins 1/3 of the time against the best) so how can you make a guess as to what the correct side of a 7 1/2 pt spread is? Take the worst team in the league +7 1/2 sounds retarded against the best team, but then you worry giving up more than a TD in the NFL so you take the best team ML and get blown out 35-14 by the worst team . NFL/MLB is nothing but heartbreaking losses and stresses, bet NCAAF and NCAAB and win for the year.

do you realize that 7.5pt favorites in the NFL lose no more often than 7.5pt favorites in NCAAF?

31. do you realize that 7.5pt favorites in the NFL lose no more often than 7.5pt favorites in NCAAF?
7.5 pt favorites lose less often in NFL than in NCAAF.

32. Outright, I mean. Obviously ATS they win at roughly the same rate.

33. Originally Posted by donjuan
Another example that is related but shows a different point is getting 7-1 on a heart flush draw in limit hold'em. You call, believing you have 9 outs (ignore implied odds for this example). You miss, and the other guy takes down the pot. After the hand is over, two players tell you they folded hearts preflop and that you really only had 5 outs. Now, with this information you wouldn't go back and make the call but your call still had +EV based on all available information at the time you made your decision and the information you found out after the hand is irrelevant. And it's the same thing in sports betting. Before the season, based on all available info, if you could get Clemson -2.5 against Bama, that was a great bet. Based on information now available Bama would be a favorite, but that information is irrelevant to analyzing past bets as that information was not available at the time you made the bet and how you interpret available information is what is important in gambling. Hopefully that makes sense as I'm not sure I elucidated my point well.
this is what i having problems with. unless you know some inside info, all information are public and delayed. seems to me poker, day trading and sports are pretty similar. no one knows what the hell is going on in the short term, and as long as you're not the biggest loser, you should be okay.

34. ML on favs have been killing a lot of people here lately, including myself on OU.

35. There is no way in hell the Browns should have even been contenders in that game, it was bizarre.

I don't think every game in the NFL is rigged, but I do start to wonder sometimes just how the worst team in the NFL can beat the best team on Monday Night Football, when it just so happens that the amount of bets coming in probably top any other game during the weekend.

I have only won 1 bet on MNF so far this year I think....

Oh well,

- Hakrjak

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