Originally Posted by
durito
First of all you are ignoring everything I've ever told you.
College sports are most certainly easier markets to beat, thus the lower limits. This is a point I tried to explain to you this summer without success. But, you are still approaching it in the wrong way.
The fact that underdogs win on occasion doesn't make any sport any more or less "predictable" than any other.
If the closing money line at pinnacle is an efficient line, the Browns were expected to win the game last night 25.1% of the time. That hardly makes it an unexpected win. If you had Giants -280 last night, would you still consider it a bad bet?
By the same measure, Tampa Bay had a 36.2% chance of winning and Boston 63.8%.
You freak out way too much over each game you lose and thus all the "it's fixed" or "I'm unlucky" posts. Advantage sports betting is about numbers. If you are consistently getting the best numbers and managing your risk properly, you will win.
I lost a few teasers with the giants last night, I won some with browns +9. I lost Lester -170 and won some with tampa +1.5. Overall I took a loss on these two games, but I would make all the bets again.
You don't see me flipping out every time a bad call or missed free throw costs me a bet, in fact I really don't care. While I'm sure many people lost it when they lost Houston +3.5 last week, I just marked it down a loss in my database and moved on to the next game. You are going to have unlucky loses and unlucky wins. You will probably remember the loses more and therefore think everything is stacked against you. It's not. Learn what you can and move on to the next game and work a little harder.