1. #71
    durito
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    Quote Originally Posted by donjuan View Post
    7.5 pt favorites lose less often in NFL than in NCAAF.
    You are right. I shouldn't post before having coffee.


    fwiw

    I get 77.7% NFL vs 72.4% NCAAF SU winners for spreads of exactly 7.5


    which just further shows how ridiculous bettilheisbrokes claims are

  2. #72
    durito
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    Quote Originally Posted by hakrjak View Post
    There is no way in hell the Browns should have even been contenders in that game, it was bizarre.

    I don't think every game in the NFL is rigged, but I do start to wonder sometimes just how the worst team in the NFL can beat the best team on Monday Night Football, when it just so happens that the amount of bets coming in probably top any other game during the weekend.

    I have only won 1 bet on MNF so far this year I think....

    Oh well,

    - Hakrjak
    Is this your first year watching monday night football?

  3. #73
    FadeThePublic
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    Giants were doomed from kickoff!! Brandon Lang's b-tch ass was on them

  4. #74
    daggerkobe
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    Simple but to the point. Fading Blow Lang is always $$$$$$$$$.

  5. #75
    pico
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    Quote Originally Posted by MonkeyF0cker View Post
    True to some extent. There is a limit to the available data that is both quantifiable and prognostic, however.
    i got a master in modeling and i don't really trust those when it comes to forecasting. they're good if nothing goes wrong, but as you know, something always goes wrong in a game. maybe you could use a hazard function, but using that then your win% will be all over the place.

  6. #76
    bettilimbroke999
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    Quote Originally Posted by rm18 View Post
    the Browns were not winless, and these two teams had the same record last year, called perception vs. reality
    Yea technically they beat the 0-6 Bengals middle school team, so that makes them a great bet to blowout the 4-0 Superbowl champs, NFL is a joke

  7. #77
    bettilimbroke999
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    Quote Originally Posted by donnyguru View Post
    [

    No money line would be posted in that theoretical game, but several four touchdown underdogs have won outright in NCAAF this year.

    The Brownies were about 3-1 dogs. 3-1 ain't no prohibitive favorite, noob.
    Go fuk off your milk money on NFL I don't care, bet the Browns to win the Super Bowl then since they are better than the Giants ya 17 post expert

  8. #78
    bettilimbroke999
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    Quote Originally Posted by TodaysAction View Post
    Karma's a wicked nasty bitch. Maybe if you made nice, your fortune would improve.
    If bein nice were the key I'd go on a 1000-0 run

  9. #79
    bettilimbroke999
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    Quote Originally Posted by hakrjak View Post
    There is no way in hell the Browns should have even been contenders in that game, it was bizarre.

    I don't think every game in the NFL is rigged, but I do start to wonder sometimes just how the worst team in the NFL can beat the best team on Monday Night Football, when it just so happens that the amount of bets coming in probably top any other game during the weekend.

    I have only won 1 bet on MNF so far this year I think....

    Oh well,

    - Hakrjak
    Great post, finally some1 who believed the best team in the NFL should beat one of the worst teams, I'm glad I wasn't the only one, next week if the Titans play the Bengals and I bet the Titans I'll get fukin called a square 500 times b/c the Bengals have the best middle school WR ever on their team and thus blah blah blah, everybody loaded up on Bengals ML and cashed in, believe me that's all I'll hear, basically bet teams that don't have a prayer of winning in the NFL and you're a fukin "sharp"

  10. #80
    20Four7
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    Quote Originally Posted by donjuan View Post
    Don't you think that the time spent researching what a player ate for breakfast would be better spent line shopping?
    While I'd spend it line shopping, the bettor may want to have a better breakfast than the player. But seriously if anyone had that in a model I'd be very surprised.

  11. #81
    jjgold
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    Why anyone would unload on an nfl ml fav is puzzling because anyone can beat anyone.

    Cleve was due and Manning was due to have a bad game and it happened.

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  12. #82
    bettilimbroke999
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    Quote Originally Posted by durito View Post
    You are right. I shouldn't post before having coffee.


    fwiw

    I get 77.7% NFL vs 72.4% NCAAF SU winners for spreads of exactly 7.5


    which just further shows how ridiculous bettilheisbrokes claims are
    I take satisfaction in knowing that all the posters in this thread that disagree with me are barrelled in degens that were losing their rent money on Lester and the under as he gave up 25 runs yesterday, gl boys double your bets on that easy to win at MLB/NFL, while I'm owning the bookie at college F and B. I tried to help, I am a great man and tried to help the board make money but since my advice has been refused I just hope the guys who disagree are great at flipping coins b/c they gotta flip 53% just to break even, good fukin luck
    Last edited by bettilimbroke999; 10-14-08 at 12:06 PM.

  13. #83
    durito
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    Quote Originally Posted by bettilimbroke999 View Post
    I take satisfaction in knowing that all the posters in this thread that disagree with me are barrelled in degens that were losing their rent money on Lester and the under as he gave up 25 runs yesterday, gl boys double your bets on that easy to win at MLB/NFL, while I'm owning the bookie at college F and B.

    First of all you are ignoring everything I've ever told you.

    College sports are most certainly easier markets to beat, thus the lower limits. This is a point I tried to explain to you this summer without success. But, you are still approaching it in the wrong way.

    The fact that underdogs win on occasion doesn't make any sport any more or less "predictable" than any other.

    If the closing money line at pinnacle is an efficient line, the Browns were expected to win the game last night 25.1% of the time. That hardly makes it an unexpected win. If you had Giants -280 last night, would you still consider it a bad bet?

    By the same measure, Tampa Bay had a 36.2% chance of winning and Boston 63.8%.

    You freak out way too much over each game you lose and thus all the "it's fixed" or "I'm unlucky" posts. Advantage sports betting is about numbers. If you are consistently getting the best numbers and managing your risk properly, you will win.

    I lost a few teasers with the giants last night, I won some with browns +9. I lost Lester -170 and won some with tampa +1.5. Overall I took a loss on these two games, but I would make all the bets again.

    You don't see me flipping out every time a bad call or missed free throw costs me a bet, in fact I really don't care. While I'm sure many people lost it when they lost Houston +3.5 last week, I just marked it down a loss in my database and moved on to the next game. You are going to have unlucky loses and unlucky wins. You will probably remember the loses more and therefore think everything is stacked against you. It's not. Learn what you can and move on to the next game and work a little harder.

  14. #84
    bettilimbroke999
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    If you're good (lucky) at flipping a coin and can count on heads more than 53% of the time then by all means bet MLB/NFL, if not then bet them like 20 bucks when your bored and enjoy the game, then make your cash on NCAA F and B

  15. #85
    durito
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    Did you even read my post?

  16. #86
    pico
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    durito has a point, but it is not fun when you don't have a shitload on a national televised game.

  17. #87
    element1286
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    Quote Originally Posted by durito View Post
    First of all you are ignoring everything I've ever told you.

    College sports are most certainly easier markets to beat, thus the lower limits. This is a point I tried to explain to you this summer without success. But, you are still approaching it in the wrong way.

    The fact that underdogs win on occasion doesn't make any sport any more or less "predictable" than any other.

    If the closing money line at pinnacle is an efficient line, the Browns were expected to win the game last night 25.1% of the time. That hardly makes it an unexpected win. If you had Giants -280 last night, would you still consider it a bad bet?

    By the same measure, Tampa Bay had a 36.2% chance of winning and Boston 63.8%.

    You freak out way too much over each game you lose and thus all the "it's fixed" or "I'm unlucky" posts. Advantage sports betting is about numbers. If you are consistently getting the best numbers and managing your risk properly, you will win.

    I lost a few teasers with the giants last night, I won some with browns +9. I lost Lester -170 and won some with tampa +1.5. Overall I took a loss on these two games, but I would make all the bets again.

    You don't see me flipping out every time a bad call or missed free throw costs me a bet, in fact I really don't care. While I'm sure many people lost it when they lost Houston +3.5 last week, I just marked it down a loss in my database and moved on to the next game. You are going to have unlucky loses and unlucky wins. You will probably remember the loses more and therefore think everything is stacked against you. It's not. Learn what you can and move on to the next game and work a little harder.
    That sums it up real good Durito. I rarely ever watch games that I bet on, unless for capping purposes. And I would never bet enough of my bankroll that a few losses in a row would get me steaming. I had the Giants in a couple of teasers last night, but whatever, just move on to today's bets.

  18. #88
    bettilimbroke999
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    Quote Originally Posted by durito View Post
    Did you even read my post?
    I read it but disagreed with it, MLB and NFL are just more prone to huge changes than college F and B, I'm killin my bookie this year in NCAAF almost like I'm psychic, then on Sunday hell Browns beat the Super Bowl champs, Dolphins beat the Pats, hell who knows whats goin on in that shit, in MLB Lester pitches like he's got Down's Syndrome and CC would have pitched better if hed just put the ball on a tee during the postseason, yet they were huge favorites. I am a gambler durito, I bet and watch the games, I don't just calculate some madeup math percentage then punch in W or L into my database, if I did that I would quit sports gambling altogether as it wouldn't be fun anymore

  19. #89
    accuscoresucks
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    im done with mnf

    just goes to show teams play like its post season nomatter how good or bad

  20. #90
    Ralphie1412
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    Quote Originally Posted by element1286 View Post
    That sums it up real good Durito. I rarely ever watch games that I bet on, unless for capping purposes. And I would never bet enough of my bankroll that a few losses in a row would get me steaming. I had the Giants in a couple of teasers last night, but whatever, just move on to today's bets.

    whats the point of not watching it?

  21. #91
    element1286
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ralphie1412 View Post
    whats the point of not watching it?
    A lot of times I would rather do something else.

  22. #92
    durito
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    Quote Originally Posted by bettilimbroke999 View Post
    I read it but disagreed with it, MLB and NFL are just more prone to huge changes than college F and B, I'm killin my bookie this year in NCAAF almost like I'm psychic, then on Sunday hell Browns beat the Super Bowl champs, Dolphins beat the Pats, hell who knows whats goin on in that shit, in MLB Lester pitches like he's got Down's Syndrome and CC would have pitched better if hed just put the ball on a tee during the postseason, yet they were huge favorites. I am a gambler durito, I bet and watch the games, I don't just calculate some madeup math percentage then punch in W or L into my database, if I did that I would quit sports gambling altogether as it wouldn't be fun anymore
    What parts don't you agree with and why?

    What do you mean by huge changes? Do you not notice the frequent straight up loses by double digit favorites in NCAA football? What about 21+ pt favorites -- plenty of those have lost straight up this year.

    If this is just something you do for fun, that's completely fine. But, in that case you should acknowledge that you are going to lose 4.5% of what you bet to the books over time and realize that you beating NCAAF right now and losing NFL is nothing more than random variance that may reverse itself next week.

    By that measure, there is no reason not to bet the NFL. You gain the utility of it making the game more fun to watch.

    I don't do this for fun, I do it for the money. And yes, it has in many ways ruined sports for me. I rarely watch games anymore I'm usually too busy working.

    But, it's certainly possible to do this for fun and to win. Plenty of people do it. DJ pointed out an easy way to win at the NFL in another thread here today. You have to be willing to play at a D+ book, but it's basically a free $10,000.

    If you don't want to learn, so be it. I actually appreciate the donations. I'm going apartment shopping later today.

  23. #93
    coldhardfacts
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    The Patriots were a better bet on the point spread because Belicheck was only trying to shave the point spread, not throw the whole game.

    It just worked out that way.

  24. #94
    bettilimbroke999
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    Not random variance dury, I win every year at NCAAF by staying away from overrated favorites like USC versus Org. St. at home giving 28 pts and take the underated dogs when they are getting 4 TDs, that's how I make money in NCAAF but when I see like Florida giving up 7 to a Tenn team they are guaranteed to beat I know that game has value and I leap on it and cash my ticket, there is never opportunities as good as that in NFL b/c honestly the pro teams are too fukin good, they can all play great on any given week unlike bad teams in NCAAF who simply play terrible week in week out, the best team favored by 7 1/2 vs one of the worst AND GETS BEAT BY 21, happens in NCAAF 1 or twice a year, happens in NFL every week, fukin KC rapes Denver, Clev rapes NYG, etc. etc. no doubt Cincy will be raping TN when they play.

  25. #95
    durito
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    Ignoring for a minute the fact that I already posted the stats showing the NCAAF 7.5 pt favorites lose more often than NFL 7.5pt favorites.

    Why not then take all the money line dogs in the NFL and clean up?

  26. #96
    bettilimbroke999
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    Quote Originally Posted by durito View Post
    Ignoring for a minute the fact that I already posted the stats showing the NCAAF 7.5 pt favorites lose more often than NFL 7.5pt favorites.

    Why not then take all the money line dogs in the NFL and clean up?

    Cuz it's just as likely that all the favorites will win, my point is that it's totally unpredictable, the teams are capable of playing at such a high level you don't know the outcome, TN is not capable of playing well enough to beat FL this year b/c FL takes the rivalry game very seriously and is much more talented, lay 2 dimes on FL ML and enjoy your free money, lay 2 dimes on the best team in NFL ML versus one of the worst and enjoy the trip to the soup kitchen on tues morning.

  27. #97
    fiveteamer
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    Quote Originally Posted by durito View Post
    What parts don't you agree with and why?

    What do you mean by huge changes? Do you not notice the frequent straight up loses by double digit favorites in NCAA football? What about 21+ pt favorites -- plenty of those have lost straight up this year.

    If this is just something you do for fun, that's completely fine. But, in that case you should acknowledge that you are going to lose 4.5% of what you bet to the books over time and realize that you beating NCAAF right now and losing NFL is nothing more than random variance that may reverse itself next week.

    By that measure, there is no reason not to bet the NFL. You gain the utility of it making the game more fun to watch.

    I don't do this for fun, I do it for the money. And yes, it has in many ways ruined sports for me. I rarely watch games anymore I'm usually too busy working.

    But, it's certainly possible to do this for fun and to win. Plenty of people do it. DJ pointed out an easy way to win at the NFL in another thread here today. You have to be willing to play at a D+ book, but it's basically a free $10,000.

    If you don't want to learn, so be it. I actually appreciate the donations. I'm going apartment shopping later today.

    where is the link to the free 10k?

    I want to try and win an easy free 10k for once.

  28. #98
    durito
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  29. #99
    fiveteamer
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    What do I do with that?

  30. #100
    durito
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    A^13 + B = 12

    B - 1 = 10

    What do A and B equal?

  31. #101
    fiveteamer
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    Are you the Zodiac Killer?

    Just show me how to win 10k guy.

  32. #102
    donjuan
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    1. Open account
    2. Bet
    3. Profit
    4. Receive form letter telling you your account is closed.

    If you can't beat SIA, you should, at a minimum, get a vasectomy immediately.

  33. #103
    jccurtis7
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    Quote Originally Posted by durito View Post
    A^13 + B = 12

    B - 1 = 10

    What do A and B equal?
    A = 1; B = 11

    Where do I type that in for my 10 grand?

  34. #104
    durito
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  35. #105
    bettilimbroke999
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    If it's a D+ book don't they just keep your money anyway?

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