[Love The Action]

Since I began posting my write-ups for Round 1 of the NBA playoffs, I have had some PM requests to release my plays via Twitter and to put them all into one thread for easier tracking.

I am not important enough to require a twitter account. I will leave that up to the touts and the long-time successful cappers on this forum like SJ and GG. However, I have no problem putting all of my write-ups and plays in one thread for those who want to tail, so I will be posting everything in this thread for Round 2, the Conference Finals and NBA Championship (this will include my MLB plays until the end of the NBA season).

I am relatively new to this forum and began in here a few months ago by posting comments in BL's thread (who I have the utmost respect for as a long-time proven winner, really nice guy and one of the best cappers I have come across). I also have a ton of respect for, and like to check in on the threads of (in no particular order) SJ, NoCoin, SK, 70kg, Dexter, Kob, GG, Biggie, LC and a bunch of others I cannot think of at the moment. I firmly believe this forum has the best group of free (i.e. not touts) NBA cappers on the net.

I utilize an analytical style of capping that reflects my day-job (which requires that I analyze issues from every angle). I incorporate my talent for analytical thinking into sports investing, because I believe you need to research these games from every angle and viewpoint in order to achieve consistent success and profit. That is why I like to do in-depth write-ups. My write-ups provide me one final opportunity after capping the games to ensure I have looked at every possible reason for making a play. In addition, I really appreciate comments from everyone on this forum, whether in support of or against my plays, so that we can spark discussion and learn from each other.

We need more discussion in this forum about the plays themselves rather than a lot of the BS that occurs (personal grudges, fights, etc.). I trust that everyone will leave the BS out of this thread and concentrate solely on the plays themselves. I encourage disagreement and debate, but you should always provide the reasons why you disagree with a play or with the viewpoint of someone else. Don't just say you like one side or the other without providing a few words or sentences on the reasoning for your view.

This thread will be for those who like to think through their plays and look at games/sport investing with critical thinking analysis. To that end, I encourage those of you who are experts in the requisite math of sports investing to contribute in here. I also utilize math, however, I would really like increase my knowledge of that aspect of capping and will be looking to do that through your posts.

Now...onto the games.

[Love The Action]

CELTICS/HEAT UNDER (182.5) 2x (Locked)

I actually locked this in last night and may add units closer to tip as (1) the ref assignments are released, (2) we see how the money comes in and (3) how the line fluctuates from those bets. In addition to Sunday's game, the below write-up applies to this Heat/Celts series as a whole. I expect to play more unders in this series, unless the oddsmakers drop the total to such an extent that there is more value on the over. However, I firmly believe we will see more unders than overs in this series for the following reasons.

These two teams played four games this year, all of them with playoff-like intensity, and three of the four games stayed under the posted total. The ending totals of these games were as follows: 168 (under the posted total of 189), 219 (over the posted total of 183.5), 167 (under the posted total of 188.5) and 177 (under the posted total of 183). I see this series following the trends of these preceding games, with both teams focusing on a slow pace that is predicated on defense and half-court offense. In the only one of the aforementioned games which went over the posted total, both teams shot over 50%. I don't see these two defensive-minded teams shooting 50% consistently game after game in this series. Even if they do, the slow pace which results from this matchup may still allow for some unders. For example, in the last game where the teams played to a 177 total, the Heat shot 50.3% in scoring 100 points, while the Celtics shot 45.3% in scoring 77 points. Despite these high shooting percentages, the game stayed under the posted total because of the slow pace.

I believe we will see collective field goal attempts hover around the 143 - 145 range. In the aforementioned games, we saw total field goal attempts of 143, 151, 145 and 139. With respect to three point attempts, we should expect an average of around 35 total three point attempts per game with a collective hit rate in the 30% - 40% range. Finally, we should expect around 50 free throws attempted per game as well (which, as you know, depends heavily on the ref assignments) with a collective hit-rate around 75%.

If we are conservative and say 45 collective points will result from three point shots, that would leave us with a 135 point cushion from the approximate 113 remaining field goal and 50 free throw attempts per game which should result from the pace we expect in this series. With a solid shooting percentage of 45% on those remaining 113 remaining fg attempts (equates to about 101 total points) and 75% on the 50 free throw attempts (equates to about 37 points), we would get a total expectation of 183 points (as an fyi, this is also the number derived from my regular season deviation spreadsheet). Using those conservative numbers, we would cash the under more often than not with a total set around that magic 183 number. Remember, those are using conservative numbers; with the defensive effort expected to be put forth by these two teams in this playoff series, I expect the shooting percentages outlined above to be consistently lower. This has proven to be true in three of the last four games between these two teams.

Unfortunately, oddsmakers understand all of this and have not given us much value on the under with this total posted so low. The line opened at 182.5 and basically stayed steady until it dropped to 182 early this morning. Currently, the action is pretty even on both the over and the under, with slightly more action on the under as I type. However, as we get closer to tip, I expect the casual bettor to pound the over and perhaps we get a half point or more to use to our advantage if we decide to add units. Nevertheless, we need to remain flexible in order to adjust to the oddsmakers adjustments. For example, if the first game ends with a total of 160 and oddsmakers go down to 175, we would probably adjust and play the over because that is where the value lies. I always try to make the play that has the most value. However, in the real world, we would never see such a huge adjustment from the oddsmakers so I expect the under will remain our play.

I am concerned that, perhaps for this first game of the series, we see both teams run a little more than they will in the later games. After all, it's not unusual to see an over hit the very first game of any playoff series. Take a look at the first round games for evidence of that concept. However, as we get to the more important games, I fully expect both teams to really clamp down on defense and employ a slow, half-court style of offensive play.

We have plenty of trends to support this under play. While I don't I put a ton of stock in these "publicly available" trends, I do think they are important to note in support of or against a particular play. Here are some of the trends which support the under:

Boston:

• Under is 5-0-1 in Celtics last 6 vs. NBA Southeast.
• Under is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Under is 7-1 in Celtics last 8 games following a S.U. win.
• Under is 6-1 in Celtics last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• Under is 5-1 in Celtics last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Under is 13-3 in Celtics last 16 Sunday games.
• Under is 4-1-1 in Celtics last 6 road games.
• Under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5.
• Under is 4-1-1 in Celtics last 6 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.
• Under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.
• Under is 20-6-1 in Celtics last 27 vs. Eastern Conference.
• Under is 19-6-1 in Celtics last 26 overall.
• Under is 11-4 in Celtics last 15 games as an underdog.
• Under is 7-3 in Celtics last 10 Conference Semifinals games.
• Under is 9-4 in Celtics last 13 games as a road underdog.
• Under is 34-16-1 in Celtics last 51 games following a ATS win.
• Under is 48-23-1 in Celtics last 72 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.

Heat:

• Under is 6-0 in Heat last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
• Under is 5-0 in Heat last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
• Under is 5-0 in Heat last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Under is 7-0-1 in Heat last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Under is 4-0 in Heat last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5.
• Under is 7-1 in Heat last 8 games following a S.U. win.
• Under is 4-1 in Heat last 5 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
• Under is 6-2 in Heat last 8 overall.
• Under is 6-2 in Heat last 8 Sunday games.
• Under is 6-2 in Heat last 8 vs. Eastern Conference.
• Under is 5-2 in Heat last 7 vs. NBA Atlantic.
• Under is 5-2 in Heat last 7 games as a favorite.

In addition, this first game will be played at 3:30pm EST. These two teams are a combined 4-16 in favor of the under during games that take place during the day. Consequently, I think it is safe to say the trends favor the under in this series.

For the foregoing reasons, I will be playing the under in this first game of the Heat/Celtics series. Because that 183 number is so important for the posted total, we will base the remainder of our plays on the adjustment of the oddsmakers away from that magic 183 number. If there is value on the over, we won't be afraid to pull the trigger. However, I believe I have laid out why the under is the better play, and as long as we do not see a large adjustment from the oddsmakers, the under will probably remain our play in this series.

It's time to go look at the Memphis/OKC, Bulls/Atlanta and Lakers/Mavs series. I will post all of thoughts on those series and individual plays in this thread as well.

I look forward to hearing your thoughts on all of my plays, either in support of or against them. Either way, however, please post the reasons in support of your view.

Thanks and good luck!

[GTS925]

Best of luck!

[asdfghasdfgh]

Great write-up LTA, good luck on your plays. I like the under play.

[Love The Action]

MLB:

Mets/Phillies Under (7) .5x (Locked)

The books came off the key number of 7.5 despite action that slightly favors the over. That tells me there are some heavy hitters backing the under here. With Halladay pitching you could always see a shutout and I like Niese to come out motivated to pitch well against Halladay and the Phillies.

Just a small play for some early action. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Best of luck!

Same to you sir!

[Love The Action]

Great write-up LTA, good luck on your plays. I like the under play.

[EntengKabisote]

line now at 181.5. still take the under??

[Love The Action]

line now at 181.5. still take the under??

I would wait. You could see some money coming in the over that pushes it back up to 182. It's not uncommon, especially for these playoff games, to see the line dip, go back up and dip again.

That's not to say I am afraid of taking the under at 181, however, you might be able to get a better number later. Either way, however, play this one light. There will be a time to make a big play in this series, but this first game is not it. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

The total in OKC/Memphis opened at 198 and is now all the way down to 196 in some places. That quick drop does not surprise me. I do generally like the under in this series. However, I also think an over play on this first game, or perhaps a 1h over play, might be the right way to go.

What does everyone think of the total in this first game of the OKC/Mem series?

[Camfriend87]

Wow that look like you put alot of effort into your pick. . . That was a really goo read and it helped me out alot to decide to make a play

[ParlayKing]

Love the under in the heat/Celtic series for all the reasons you've mentioned, the okc/mem game is hard to cap for the total, it can go either way IMO, I would watch the first game before putting anything on the total

[ParlayKing]

But over first qt/half hits at a high clip @ the okc arena, or atleast so before the Perkins trade

[forzuto13]

Thanks for the post - a very comprehensive write-up (I'm wondering how much time you took to do that). I had the under with Celtics +5 when the line first came out, so I'm on your side with this one. Best of luck.

Re. Okl/Memhpis game: I think the over is the play. Memphis will get caught up in Thunder's pace, however, if Grizzlies are as good at perimeter defense as they were with S.A., then I don't see a lot of 3 balls dropping, which would help the over even more of course.

[Love The Action]

MLB:

Mets/Phillies Under (7) .5x (Locked) WINNER

The books came off the key number of 7.5 despite action that slightly favors the over. That tells me there are some heavy hitters backing the under here. With Halladay pitching you could always see a shutout and I like Niese to come out motivated to pitch well against Halladay and the Phillies.

Just a small play for some early action. Good luck.

A small MLB winner to start the day 1-0 +.5x.

[Love The Action]

Wow that look like you put alot of effort into your pick. . . That was a really goo read and it helped me out alot to decide to make a play

[Love The Action]

Thanks for the post - a very comprehensive write-up (I'm wondering how much time you took to do that). I had the under with Celtics +5 when the line first came out, so I'm on your side with this one. Best of luck.

Re. Okl/Memhpis game: I think the over is the play. Memphis will get caught up in Thunder's pace, however, if Grizzlies are as good at perimeter defense as they were with S.A., then I don't see a lot of 3 balls dropping, which would help the over even more of course.

Not that long. That write-up is just my capping notes written down. Those write-ups add about 10 minutes to my capping process so no big deal. It helps me cohesively organize all my thoughts on the game. Plus, I've been on a hot streak since I started posting them so I do have some selfish reasons for posting. Good luck!

[EntengKabisote]

any other MLB plays for tonight?

[Love The Action]

Love the under in the heat/Celtic series for all the reasons you've mentioned, the okc/mem game is hard to cap for the total, it can go either way IMO, I would watch the first game before putting anything on the total

I can't disagree with you regarding OKC/Mem. I need to look into the game more before I make a play. I won't lock anything in on that one, if at all, till tomorrow morning. I will probably have a small play on it though. I do have a lean.

[Love The Action]

Tor/NYY Under (9) .5x (Locked)

Drabek and Burnett matched up a couple weeks ago and the game went over the posted total of 9 with NY winning 6-5. I like both pitchers to make an adjustment and this game to be lower scoring in the 4-2 range. I'm a fan of betting games with the kid, Drabek, and I think he pitches well tonight. I actually lean Toronto too, but after taking them yesterday and cashing with Romero, I don't want to push my luck. I do like the under thought. Good luck!

[AikenJ]

Great post big guy, I would have missed this if it weren't for you. I'm just sad we have to wait until tomorrow for action :[

[Love The Action]

MLB

BAL/CSW Over (9.5) 1.5x (Locked)

Philip Humber comes back down to earth and both he and Tillman get shelled in Chicago. There is a 20 mph wind blowing out to right-center and I expect a lot of runs tonight. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB

DET/CLE Under 8.5 (+115) .5x (Locked)

This game is available at a better number as you can probably get 9. However, my local dropped it down and is giving plus odds so I took a shot. Alex White, the Indians top minor league pitcher makes his first start against Porcello. These teams usually go over, but I like the first start angle here as supported by line that has come down from 9.5 despite most bets on the over. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB

Houston ML (+100) to win over Milwaukee 1x (Locked)

Milwaukee shut the Astros out yesterday at home and I generally like to bet on home teams to rebound from getting shutout. This is especially true when the pitcher they face the next day is Randy Wolf. I'm a fan of fading Randy Wolf...period. Finally, while Wandy Rodriguez is nothing special, he usually fares very well at home. If you check his career stats, the Astros generally win his starts at home. I'll take a shot here for the Stros to win over the Wolf-led Brewers at plus odds.

[M.W.]

Wow - that was quite a writeup on the Bos/Mia under. Looks like a winner.

[hoyas2007]

Great post and I like the analysis. I agree with you that game 1 should be a small play until we see what kind of pace the series takes on - there should be some opportunities for a big play on the under later in the series. Best of luck to you LTA!!

[Love The Action]

MLB

Reds ML (+110) to win over the Marlins .5x (Locked)

There aren't many game I would bet against Johnson, but I like this spot for Volquez. He's picked it up in his last couple starts and Johnson can't win them all. I like Volquez to pitch well and the Reds to win as a home dog after losing by one run last night.

[Love The Action]

Tor/NYY Under (9) .5x (Locked) PUSH
Drabek and Burnett matched up a couple weeks ago and the game went over the posted total of 9 with NY winning 6-5. I like both pitchers to make an adjustment and this game to be lower scoring in the 4-2 range. I'm a fan of betting games with the kid, Drabek, and I think he pitches well tonight. I actually lean Toronto too, but after taking them yesterday and cashing with Romero, I don't want to push my luck. I do like the under thought. Good luck!

I feel lucky to push but regretful I didn't jump on the opener of 9.5. Drabek gave up 5 through the first three innings and got pulled. However, the Yanks didn't score again and the game ended up 5-4. If I had gotten on this earlier in the morning when I first looked through the card and listed my leans, I would have gotten the opening number of 9.5 and cashed. This is just one example of why beating the closer is so important and can make the difference between making money and losing money.

[Love The Action]

Great post and I like the analysis. I agree with you that game 1 should be a small play until we see what kind of pace the series takes on - there should be some opportunities for a big play on the under later in the series. Best of luck to you LTA!!

Good luck to you as well.

Yeah, I see no reason to play this game big tomorrow. At most, I may add one unit if I see a Rodney Mott or Eric Lewis as the refs. However, tomorrow is day to learn and I will not be on the game for more than a 3 unit play.

[MrXYZ]

Thanks for the Celtics/Heat writeup & sharing your analytical approach, it's a real talent to take data and apply structured thinking to it so that it makes sense to anyone who reads it. I myself get too caught up in probability sometimes so it's a real lesson.

I'm mostly going to stick to series bets in this round, mostly to ride out the volatility & the temptation to make impulsive plays. Aside from CHI/ATL we're looking at 6-7 game series that are going to churn bankrolls, sharps and squares alike.

I like your under play for Game 1 at Miami, damn solid. myself have the total at 175-179. Like you said the line is really tight though, it's already at 181.5 at my book.

OKC/MEM - leaning over so far, but might sit this one out and watch these teams play each other in the opener. How the Grizz will back up after a short rest is a big factor IMO.

Good luck this week, let's get some wins.

[Love The Action]

Wow...the White Sox are really pathetic. They are one of the worst situational hitting teams I have seen in awhile. They made Tillman look like Halladay. Ridiculous...looking good in every game but that game, but that's my biggest play today. I hate when that happens...

Hopefully, the Orioles can have a couple of big innings to push this up to 10 runs.

[EntengKabisote]

Any opinions between Dodgers vs Padres?

[Love The Action]

Any opinions between Dodgers vs Padres?

Not really. Gun to my head, I would take the Padres. But no play on the side or total in that one.

No more plays for today. Actually, taking a look at the Memphis/OKC game right now. I will have a small play in that game as well.

[Love The Action]

NBA

Atl/Chi Under (178.5) 2x (Locked)

Dal/LAL Under (188.5) 1x (Locked)

I'll probably have write-ups for both tomorrow.

I will probably be playing the over in the Memphis/OKC game as well if I can get 195.

[aussieH]

Great write up on the Celtics game