Atl/Chi Summary
I expect this Atlanta/Chicago series to be a continuation of the under gravy train we just finished cashing in the previous Atlanta series with the Magic. Therefore, I fully expect to profit off this series whether we cash this first under or not, as this series sets up perfectly for a chase of the under.
However, I have no reason to doubt that we will cash the under in this first game for the following reasons.
First off, my regular season deviation spreadsheet has this first game at 171. That gives me 7 points of value that I love and we will probably be adding to the units on this one once we check the ref assignments.
Out of the three games Chicago and Atlanta played against each other in the regular season, two of the three went under. The only game that went over was the late-March demolition of the Hawks by the Bulls and Derrick Rose. That game was one of the infamous Rose revenge games where Rose held a grudge against a team for a bad performance in a previous matchup and then came out destroyed that team in the next game. Rose and the Bulls did this numerous times throughout the year and happened to shoot almost 55% in this third regular season game with the Hawks. However, the Hawks were struggling at the time and the Bulls were rolling and I don't see quite the same setup in this game. I believe this game goes under similar to the first two regular season games.
In the first two regular season games between the Bulls and Hawks, both teams shot between 40% and 45%, which is what we should expect in this first game and the series in general. We should also expect a slow pace, predicated on defense and half-court offense. Based on the previous three games, we can expect about 40-45 free throws, 150-155 field goal attempts, of which 30-35 should be three point attempts. I think at best, these two teams shoot a collective 30% from three point range in this series where perimeter defense will be in full effect.
Therefore, if we get about 30 points from three pointers, that gives us about 147 points of cushion from remaining 120 or so regular field goal attempts and 45 or so free throws. Being conservative and saying these two teams can shoot a collective 45% from the field (which I don't think will happen) and 75% for free throws, that would give us about an additional 141 points to add to the 30 from three point land. That puts us right back at that magic 171 number and you can see I derive the value in the under in this game and series.
The trends back this under play up as well. Most publicly available trends point to the under:
Atlanta:
- Under is 5-0 in Hawks last 5 playoff games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Hawks last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Under is 5-0 in Hawks last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 5-0 in Hawks last 5 games as an underdog.
- Under is 6-1 in Hawks last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
- Under is 6-1 in Hawks last 7 games following a S.U. win.
- Under is 5-1 in Hawks last 6 Conference Semifinals games.
- Under is 13-3 in Hawks last 16 overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Hawks last 5 road games.
- Under is 4-1 in Hawks last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
- Under is 8-2 in Hawks last 10 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.
- Under is 21-8 in Hawks last 29 Monday games.
- Under is 46-19 in Hawks last 65 vs. Eastern Conference.
- Under is 7-3 in Hawks last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Chicago:
- Under is 4-0 in Bulls last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
- Under is 10-2 in Bulls last 12 Monday games.
- Under is 5-1 in Bulls last 6 games following a S.U. win.
- Under is 8-3 in Bulls last 11 overall.
- Under is 8-3 in Bulls last 11 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-2 in Bulls last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.
- Under is 7-3 in Bulls last 10 vs. NBA Southeast.
In addition, at this 175-179 posted total range, these two teams are a collective 2-10 in favor of the under. Against winning playoff-type teams, the Bulls are Hawks are a collective 23-48 in favor of the under. It's clear, based on the foregoing, that the trends favor the under.
With the public pounding the over to the tune of 70%+, this is setting up as a great situation of us under backers. The line opened up at 179 and dropped to its current 178 despite all of these over bets. That tell me the real heavy hitters were all about the under at opening. I took it at 178.5 and will probably add to 178. Unfortunately, most outlets are juicing the under at 178, so I'm not sure if that number will last until the ref assignments are released and I may need to add units tonight.
For the foregoing reasons, I really like this under play and believe the under to be the play for this series as a whole. Good luck!
Lakers/Dallas Summary
The under here is a risky play and I can't support it as strongly as I could some of my other plays. Nevertheless, I like the under here based on the pace of these two teams in the playoffs and their commitment to defense. These two teams know defense will win this series and I expect a much slower pace than the regular season games.
In the regular season, these two teams played three times and went over two of those three games. These two teams played a fast pace and shot well when they played each other. In addition, most of the trends point to the over. However, I just don't think these veteran teams play the same type of game in the playoffs. I think they D-up and slow down the pace. I don't see these teams shooting over 50% on a regular basis like the regular season.
I think you will see a good adversary for Bynum with Chandler. Both these teams know each other well, and I think that knowledge helps out on the defensive end rather than the offensive end.
I admit that the regular season results of this matchup don't support the under in this game, yet we had a dip in the line despite 60% of all bets on the over.
I will probably not play this for more than 1 unit, but I expect the under to cash in this first game. Good luck.
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Originally Posted by NBA_Brosuf
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