CELTICS/HEAT UNDER (182.5) 2x (Locked)
I actually locked this in last night and may add units closer to tip as (1) the ref assignments are released, (2) we see how the money comes in and (3) how the line fluctuates from those bets. In addition to Sunday's game, the below write-up applies to this Heat/Celts series as a whole. I expect to play more unders in this series, unless the oddsmakers drop the total to such an extent that there is more value on the over. However, I firmly believe we will see more unders than overs in this series for the following reasons.
These two teams played four games this year, all of them with playoff-like intensity, and three of the four games stayed under the posted total. The ending totals of these games were as follows: 168 (under the posted total of 189), 219 (over the posted total of 183.5), 167 (under the posted total of 188.5) and 177 (under the posted total of 183). I see this series following the trends of these preceding games, with both teams focusing on a slow pace that is predicated on defense and half-court offense. In the only one of the aforementioned games which went over the posted total, both teams shot over 50%. I don't see these two defensive-minded teams shooting 50% consistently game after game in this series. Even if they do, the slow pace which results from this matchup may still allow for some unders. For example, in the last game where the teams played to a 177 total, the Heat shot 50.3% in scoring 100 points, while the Celtics shot 45.3% in scoring 77 points. Despite these high shooting percentages, the game stayed under the posted total because of the slow pace.
I believe we will see collective field goal attempts hover around the 143 - 145 range. In the aforementioned games, we saw total field goal attempts of 143, 151, 145 and 139. With respect to three point attempts, we should expect an average of around 35 total three point attempts per game with a collective hit rate in the 30% - 40% range. Finally, we should expect around 50 free throws attempted per game as well (which, as you know, depends heavily on the ref assignments) with a collective hit-rate around 75%.
If we are conservative and say 45 collective points will result from three point shots, that would leave us with a 135 point cushion from the approximate 113 remaining field goal and 50 free throw attempts per game which should result from the pace we expect in this series. With a solid shooting percentage of 45% on those remaining 113 remaining fg attempts (equates to about 101 total points) and 75% on the 50 free throw attempts (equates to about 37 points), we would get a total expectation of 183 points (as an fyi, this is also the number derived from my regular season deviation spreadsheet). Using those conservative numbers, we would cash the under more often than not with a total set around that magic 183 number. Remember, those are using conservative numbers; with the defensive effort expected to be put forth by these two teams in this playoff series, I expect the shooting percentages outlined above to be consistently lower. This has proven to be true in three of the last four games between these two teams.
Unfortunately, oddsmakers understand all of this and have not given us much value on the under with this total posted so low. The line opened at 182.5 and basically stayed steady until it dropped to 182 early this morning. Currently, the action is pretty even on both the over and the under, with slightly more action on the under as I type. However, as we get closer to tip, I expect the casual bettor to pound the over and perhaps we get a half point or more to use to our advantage if we decide to add units. Nevertheless, we need to remain flexible in order to adjust to the oddsmakers adjustments. For example, if the first game ends with a total of 160 and oddsmakers go down to 175, we would probably adjust and play the over because that is where the value lies. I always try to make the play that has the most value. However, in the real world, we would never see such a huge adjustment from the oddsmakers so I expect the under will remain our play.
I am concerned that, perhaps for this first game of the series, we see both teams run a little more than they will in the later games. After all, it's not unusual to see an over hit the very first game of any playoff series. Take a look at the first round games for evidence of that concept. However, as we get to the more important games, I fully expect both teams to really clamp down on defense and employ a slow, half-court style of offensive play.
We have plenty of trends to support this under play. While I don't I put a ton of stock in these "publicly available" trends, I do think they are important to note in support of or against a particular play. Here are some of the trends which support the under:
Boston:
- Under is 5-0-1 in Celtics last 6 vs. NBA Southeast.
- Under is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
- Under is 7-1 in Celtics last 8 games following a S.U. win.
- Under is 6-1 in Celtics last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Under is 5-1 in Celtics last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Under is 13-3 in Celtics last 16 Sunday games.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Celtics last 6 road games.
- Under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Celtics last 6 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.
- Under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.
- Under is 20-6-1 in Celtics last 27 vs. Eastern Conference.
- Under is 19-6-1 in Celtics last 26 overall.
- Under is 11-4 in Celtics last 15 games as an underdog.
- Under is 7-3 in Celtics last 10 Conference Semifinals games.
- Under is 9-4 in Celtics last 13 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 34-16-1 in Celtics last 51 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 48-23-1 in Celtics last 72 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
Heat:
- Under is 6-0 in Heat last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
- Under is 5-0 in Heat last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
- Under is 5-0 in Heat last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Under is 7-0-1 in Heat last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 4-0 in Heat last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5.
- Under is 7-1 in Heat last 8 games following a S.U. win.
- Under is 4-1 in Heat last 5 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
- Under is 6-2 in Heat last 8 overall.
- Under is 6-2 in Heat last 8 Sunday games.
- Under is 6-2 in Heat last 8 vs. Eastern Conference.
- Under is 5-2 in Heat last 7 vs. NBA Atlantic.
- Under is 5-2 in Heat last 7 games as a favorite.
In addition, this first game will be played at 3:30pm EST. These two teams are a combined 4-16 in favor of the under during games that take place during the day. Consequently, I think it is safe to say the trends favor the under in this series.
For the foregoing reasons, I will be playing the under in this first game of the Heat/Celtics series. Because that 183 number is so important for the posted total, we will base the remainder of our plays on the adjustment of the oddsmakers away from that magic 183 number. If there is value on the over, we won't be afraid to pull the trigger. However, I believe I have laid out why the under is the better play, and as long as we do not see a large adjustment from the oddsmakers, the under will probably remain our play in this series.
It's time to go look at the Memphis/OKC, Bulls/Atlanta and Lakers/Mavs series. I will post all of thoughts on those series and individual plays in this thread as well.
I look forward to hearing your thoughts on all of my plays, either in support of or against them. Either way, however, please post the reasons in support of your view.
Thanks and good luck!