Originally Posted by
Love The Action
MLB 7/10/11
Play#1
Seattle/Los Angeles under (6)(+100) 5x (Locked) (Note: this is about a 2.5x play under new unit scale). PUSH
There are some concerns with this play. The ump has a big over lean. Plus, both pitchers have thrown a lot of pitches in their last 3-5 starts easily eclipsing 115 in each. Hernandez has gone over in all of this games this year set with a total of 6 and he has not pitched well historically against the Angels. With that said, however, both of these pitchers are no worse than top 20 MLB (and mostly top 10) in BABIP, WHIP, FIP, xFIP, tERA, they both get strikeouts (especially when needed) and both throw ground balls as evidenced by both having a GB/FB ratio above 1.15. Both the Mariners and Angels are huge under teams with both having solid fielding statistics rated in top 15 in MLB, unspectacular hitting stats with Seattle ranked 30th in MLB and Angels more mid-of-the-pack at 16th and bullpens that are solid with Seattle rated in top 10 and LA in top 15. I don't see this series escaping without at least one under hitting and if it's going to happen it has to be today with two of the best in MLB facing off. I think the intangibles in this game are strong with neither pitcher wanting to be outdone in their last start before the all star break. I think we see a classic pitcher's duel today with a 2-1 type of game. I have it capped at 5, so I will roll with the value of having 6 at plus odds. Good luck.
Play #2
Padres ML (-103) 2x (Locked) (Note: this is about a 1x play under new unit scale) LOSS
The Dodgers have beaten the Padres in back to back days 1-0. I don't forsee that happening again with such a disparity in starting pitching. Stauffer is a legitimate stud this year and Lilly has generally been a dud. Stauffer is top 30 in MLB in WHIP, xERA, FIP and xFIP. I think the most striking difference is in the batted ball differentials. Stauffer has a GB/FB ratio over 2, while Lilly is under 1. That makes a bet on Lilly cost-prohibitive and gives us value on the Padres in this spot. Padres have a top 5 bullpen and somewhat comparable offensive stats to the Dodgers. I think the intangibles go the Padres in this spot after losing the last two so close and I just don't see the Dodgers pulling off the sweep. I'm rolling Padres all the way. Good luck.
Play #3
Giants ML (-153) 1x & Giants RL -1.5 (+152) 1x (Locked) (Note: This means I am playing Giants -1 RL) WINNER
Play #4
Mets/Giants under (6.5) 2x (Locked) WINNER
The plays on the Giants -1 RL and Giants under is all about Matt Cain against Pelfrey. Cain is top 50 MLB in tERA, FIP and xFIP, while Pelfrey is top 140. Plus, in their last three starts, the stats are strongly in Cain's favor. In their last three starts, Cain has a .80 WHIP and 2.17 ERA while Pelfrey has a 1.80 WHIP and 4.24 ERA. This is why I like the Giants to win by 2. However, I like Pelfrey to keep it close and the Giants to win a 4-1 or 4-2 type game. Both players have a BAPIP in the top 35 of the league and Pelfrey only as a 17% LD% and an overal GB/FB in 1.2 range. Plus, the Mets lineup is struggling right now and I expect Cain to be motivated to bounce back from a rough start against the Padres and before the all star break. Finally, as you know, I love playing unders on Sunday night ESPN game of the weeks based on the trend for those games to go under. I'm rolling Giants -1 RL and under in tonight's last game before the all star break. Good luck!