[mikemca]

Thug daddy bad start cost him at least place maybe could've won...had right 2

[Easy-Rider 66]

Good observation on the #7 Rapscallion race 2. 14/1 shot. Wired the field.

[mikemca]

Thx pretty good day so far
Another $100+ex

[mikemca]

$766 ex

[mrginandtonic]

Mike, are you not posting your analysis anymore? I always love reading and learning from you.

[mikemca]

Pm'ing them to some people...will send u them next time

[mrginandtonic]

Pm'ing them to some people...will send u them next time

Great, tks in advance.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Impressive day for you Mike at the Spa. Your analysis for most of the card was right on.

[mikemca]

Impressive day for you Mike at the Spa. Your analysis for most of the card was right on.

Thx it's gratifying when they run like you think they will.Today was unbelievable.

[PharaohUB]

Pm'ing them to some people...will send u them next time

Do you mind sending them to me as well? I've been going to the races my whole life (specifically Saratoga), but never really knew what I was doing.

[Slimpickens]

So we are talking about picks on here that only a select few can view via pm's? I would suggest if thats how your going to operate then dont post results in here either win or lose. I thought we werent fans of redboarding in here.

[J to the O]

Ya mike please PM me as well if you aren't going to post

[JJJ]

love your insight Mike wish you would post your picks in here

[mikemca]

Will pm everyone ...On vacation for week so not getting into the card today that much.I just glanced and noticed a couple good angle horses.

Race 5
8-Palestrina 10-1 (McLaughlin maiden... first turf non 1st time starter)
Race 8
4-Corsage 8-1 (Clement first US)

and just think this one is interesting
Race 4
9-Shutter Shock 12-1 (finished up well)

But didn't go over the races thoroughly so just throwing them out there.May do Wed card if it rains like it is supposed to tomorrow.

[wildrides]

I agree with JJJ. I just started with the horses. While I don't usually place many bets. I like to read others analysis. And you seem to know more about horseracing than the average Joe. You present a good learning opportunity for newbies like myself. Thanks

[harthebar]

What is reboarding. QUOTE]

[harthebar]

I hope everyone also post on best bet of the day....I hate to see that thred go away....but I also love this thred. Any words of wisdom ..I enjoy..so thank you all.

[Louisvillekid1]

Yeah is very nice to read others picks w/ reasoning...

[mikemca]

What is reboarding. QUOTE]

It's when you give no opinion before the race and then come on afterwards and say "just hit tri ".It's a little differenthere because I gave my opinion to several people beforehand.I talked to him though.No biggie.

[mikemca]

and just think this one is interesting
Race 4
9-Shutter Shock 12-1 (finished up well)

.

Damn the only other race Mitchell had a horse lit up the tote for $71.50 in the 8th....Guy is relatively unknown in NY but very good

[mikemca]

Got a little carried away with race 1 from Saratoga on Wednesday but after rereading it I thought it would be interesting to those that said they were newbies just trying to learn the game.



Saratoga

Race 1
1-Roman's Avenue 12-1 (You will hear a lot of talking heads say "This might be a suspicious drop in class anywhere else but not at the Spa because trainers just want to win here".Well this is suspicious ,I don't care where it is.Romans thought he had one of his best 2 year olds in this one having raced him in 2 straight G3s right out of a maiden win.Now after 9+ months laid up he brings him back in a 35k claimer straight off those G3s.Strong chance this one has physical issues however you will sometimes see horses like this run big right off the layoff and then go bad immediately after.At the price I won't argue with anyone using him but there is going to have to be a scratch or two for me to use him.)

2-Dighton 5-2 (This one might also have issues but for different reasons.Was transferred to Carlos Martin out of the G3 Swale and after assessing him for a month Martin put him in for 20k n2l tag lol.It is a plus that a sharp claiming trainer like Jacobson scooped him up for that 20k but then he brought him back for 15k where Jacobson worked his magic and got him back to his lifetime peak first race out.R Araya took him for that 15k and raced him back for 35k where he won his 2nd in a row.Here is why Jacobson is one of the sharpest out there.He was thinking that he could run him at the 15k level and win over and over or if he got claimed then so be it, he made money with a win.R Araya jumped him to 35k where he undoubtedly had to work much harder to win and there is a pretty good chance that effort will knock him out for a while.Thinking that it is going to be some time before we see this ones best again.)

3-Datts Happy 6-1 (Is the one of the most likely winners IMO...It may be a little hard to see in his running lines but in his last 10 the only poor races have been when he tried to route.Six good sprints that all would have a great chance to win in this spot and 4 lesser races at a mile or more.His last is better than it looked if you consider the track favored closers that day and its even more hidden because most people will assume sloppy/sealed track = speed favoring.Looks like a good bet at the ML but would make a true line more like 3-1.)

4-Much Stronger 7-2 (Is the one of the main dangers to the 3 because as noted above Jacobson is a miracle worker.Could go on for days with my suspicions on how these super dooper trainers are bending the rules but I'll just stick to the horses for the most part.This one is in the best form of his life even if it looks on some pps like he is going backward his last 2 races.Looks like the speed but has been versatile enough to sit behind horses if need be.

5-Mewannarose 15-1 (This is exactly the type of horse I'm usually a sucker for.Only 2 lifetime starts so plenty of room for improvement and in his only dirt sprint he won by making up a ton of ground from way off the pace while not even emptying the tank and it was a average to below average pace.The big difference is that it was at Parx where more often then not , there is a dead rail and it favors horses rallying wide from off the pace.Then a turf route at Belmont with David Cohen riding.If there ever was a toss out race, that is it.Still he comes in quite a few lengths short of competitive so it a guessing game how much better he is than his impressive maiden win at Parx.)

6-Ten Items Or Less 5-1 (Is the other of the likely winners...Takes a huge drop in class but L Rice is a trainer that just wants to win at Saratoga ever since she won the trainers title.However the thing that she is great at is turf sprints and this is dirt.Lightly raced with only 4 starts and was likely a good looking horse at the sales being he started his career with Pletcher.Have to use this one along with the 3.)

7-Lelaini's Ticket 4-1 (Is the trickiest horse to read in the race being he was claimed back from D Jacobson by D Galluscio the first chance he had after making 8 starts for Jacobson in protection.Is one of the fastest in here on his best but his first race since the claim wasn't too promising.Leading to the belief that Jacobson might have squeezed the lemon dry as he usually does.Tough call.

8-Midnight Music 8-1 (Is probably the slowest in here aside from the 1 but doesn't have the potential upside that one could because the 1 could have grew a lot in 9 months.Does drop in class which may wake him up but inclined to play against.


Betting - (Think playing against Dighton makes the race worth it.Could use the top 2 over 2 or 3 others 3,6/3,4,6,7(5) or if someone drifts because Dighton gets bet hard could just box the 4 next in line 3,4,6,7.A lot will depend on how the public bets the race.For Tri and Super players 3,6/3,4,6,7/1,3,4,5,6,7/1,3,4,5,6,7





Of course after all that Dighton prolly draws off by 10

[wildrides]

Thanks for analysis, and yes, very interesting. From what I'm reading, it sounds like having a good handle on trainers is a very important aspect of handicapping. But you can't get that info from a program.

[mikemca]

Thanks for analysis, and yes, very interesting. From what I'm reading, it sounds like having a good handle on trainers is a very important aspect of handicapping. But you can't get that info from a program.

Yeah there are a lot of things that are very important but hard to explain so i think it would be easier to give my thoughts here and there and you can take from it whatever you can.

[Slimpickens]

The 3 and 6 scratched out of the 1st.

[mikemca]

Yeah just saw the 3/6 scratched....That figures....Would disregard the whole thing because now Dighton has a much better shot even with a bad race.Newbies can still look at it to see some of what all goes into capping a race.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Mike you would go with the #2. His last race was june 7th so he's had time to recover. Currently 9/2.

[mikemca]

I think there is a good chance Much stronger wires them

[Slimpickens]

Anyone playing derby wars today? Im in the sar survivor and the 10K qualifier both starting in race 3.

[Easy-Rider 66]

I think there is a good chance Much stronger wires them

Good call. The #4 came off the pace a bit but won easily. The #2 had nothing in the tank.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Anyone playing derby wars today? Im in the sar survivor and the 10K qualifier both starting in race 3.

Playing in a couple of small DW contests. Might take a shot at a 10K qualifier later this week. GL.

[Slimpickens]

Playing in a couple of small DW contests. Might take a shot at a 10K qualifier later this week. GL.

Still a few spots for todays qualifier. Dont think I ever asked what name do you go by there?

[mikemca]

Yeah Dighten definitely is cooked for a while

[mikemca]

Got a little carried away with race 1 from Saratoga on Wednesday but after rereading it I thought it would be interesting to those that said they were newbies just trying to learn the game.



Saratoga

Race 1
1-Roman's Avenue 12-1 (You will hear a lot of talking heads say "This might be a suspicious drop in class anywhere else but not at the Spa because trainers just want to win here".Well this is suspicious ,I don't care where it is.Romans thought he had one of his best 2 year olds in this one having raced him in 2 straight G3s right out of a maiden win.Now after 9+ months laid up he brings him back in a 35k claimer straight off those G3s.Strong chance this one has physical issues however you will sometimes see horses like this run big right off the layoff and then go bad immediately after.At the price I won't argue with anyone using him but there is going to have to be a scratch or two for me to use him.)

2-Dighton 5-2 (This one might also have issues but for different reasons.Was transferred to Carlos Martin out of the G3 Swale and after assessing him for a month Martin put him in for 20k n2l tag lol.It is a plus that a sharp claiming trainer like Jacobson scooped him up for that 20k but then he brought him back for 15k where Jacobson worked his magic and got him back to his lifetime peak first race out.R Araya took him for that 15k and raced him back for 35k where he won his 2nd in a row.Here is why Jacobson is one of the sharpest out there.He was thinking that he could run him at the 15k level and win over and over or if he got claimed then so be it, he made money with a win.R Araya jumped him to 35k where he undoubtedly had to work much harder to win and there is a pretty good chance that effort will knock him out for a while.Thinking that it is going to be some time before we see this ones best again.)

3-Datts Happy 6-1 (Is the one of the most likely winners IMO...It may be a little hard to see in his running lines but in his last 10 the only poor races have been when he tried to route.Six good sprints that all would have a great chance to win in this spot and 4 lesser races at a mile or more.His last is better than it looked if you consider the track favored closers that day and its even more hidden because most people will assume sloppy/sealed track = speed favoring.Looks like a good bet at the ML but would make a true line more like 3-1.)

4-Much Stronger 7-2 (Is the one of the main dangers to the 3 because as noted above Jacobson is a miracle worker.Could go on for days with my suspicions on how these super dooper trainers are bending the rules but I'll just stick to the horses for the most part.This one is in the best form of his life even if it looks on some pps like he is going backward his last 2 races.Looks like the speed but has been versatile enough to sit behind horses if need be.

5-Mewannarose 15-1 (This is exactly the type of horse I'm usually a sucker for.Only 2 lifetime starts so plenty of room for improvement and in his only dirt sprint he won by making up a ton of ground from way off the pace while not even emptying the tank and it was a average to below average pace.The big difference is that it was at Parx where more often then not , there is a dead rail and it favors horses rallying wide from off the pace.Then a turf route at Belmont with David Cohen riding.If there ever was a toss out race, that is it.Still he comes in quite a few lengths short of competitive so it a guessing game how much better he is than his impressive maiden win at Parx.)

6-Ten Items Or Less 5-1 (Is the other of the likely winners...Takes a huge drop in class but L Rice is a trainer that just wants to win at Saratoga ever since she won the trainers title.However the thing that she is great at is turf sprints and this is dirt.Lightly raced with only 4 starts and was likely a good looking horse at the sales being he started his career with Pletcher.Have to use this one along with the 3.)

7-Lelaini's Ticket 4-1 (Is the trickiest horse to read in the race being he was claimed back from D Jacobson by D Galluscio the first chance he had after making 8 starts for Jacobson in protection.Is one of the fastest in here on his best but his first race since the claim wasn't too promising.Leading to the belief that Jacobson might have squeezed the lemon dry as he usually does.Tough call.

8-Midnight Music 8-1 (Is probably the slowest in here aside from the 1 but doesn't have the potential upside that one could because the 1 could have grew a lot in 9 months.Does drop in class which may wake him up but inclined to play against.


Betting - (Think playing against Dighton makes the race worth it.Could use the top 2 over 2 or 3 others 3,6/3,4,6,7(5) or if someone drifts because Dighton gets bet hard could just box the 4 next in line 3,4,6,7.A lot will depend on how the public bets the race.For Tri and Super players 3,6/3,4,6,7/1,3,4,5,6,7/1,3,4,5,6,7





Of course after all that Dighton prolly draws off by 10

And Dighton doesn't lift a hoof.Think this race is a perfect teaching tool on how to spot vulnerable favorites even when they look like the best.I'm sure plenty of people bet the best last race fig religiously.

[harthebar]

I posted my pick 4 when I hit ,,,,is that reboarding.....I was just trying to share......and I posted mine today.....to thank you ..for using your numbers........hope not.....I don't ever really do it....I know guys ..who after the race ...they will say I told you to bet him...

It's when you give no opinion before the race and then come on afterwards and say "just hit tri ".It's a little differenthere because I gave my opinion to several people beforehand.I talked to him though.No biggie.

[harthebar]

anyway Mama Zee I believed dropped down from 40 to a 20ooo claimer ,I believe what ever they did to that horse the way she finished ,,,she was totally in hand ,,,and didn't even look like she switched leads un til she just got across....maybe not....but im sure she is worth a shot next out..and im sure it will be back to a 40000.....what s your thoughts




race 5 Saratoga july 24th