Originally posted on 07/23/2013:

Got a little carried away with race 1 from Saratoga on Wednesday but after rereading it I thought it would be interesting to those that said they were newbies just trying to learn the game.



Saratoga

Race 1
1-Roman's Avenue 12-1 (You will hear a lot of talking heads say "This might be a suspicious drop in class anywhere else but not at the Spa because trainers just want to win here".Well this is suspicious ,I don't care where it is.Romans thought he had one of his best 2 year olds in this one having raced him in 2 straight G3s right out of a maiden win.Now after 9+ months laid up he brings him back in a 35k claimer straight off those G3s.Strong chance this one has physical issues however you will sometimes see horses like this run big right off the layoff and then go bad immediately after.At the price I won't argue with anyone using him but there is going to have to be a scratch or two for me to use him.)

2-Dighton 5-2 (This one might also have issues but for different reasons.Was transferred to Carlos Martin out of the G3 Swale and after assessing him for a month Martin put him in for 20k n2l tag lol.It is a plus that a sharp claiming trainer like Jacobson scooped him up for that 20k but then he brought him back for 15k where Jacobson worked his magic and got him back to his lifetime peak first race out.R Araya took him for that 15k and raced him back for 35k where he won his 2nd in a row.Here is why Jacobson is one of the sharpest out there.He was thinking that he could run him at the 15k level and win over and over or if he got claimed then so be it, he made money with a win.R Araya jumped him to 35k where he undoubtedly had to work much harder to win and there is a pretty good chance that effort will knock him out for a while.Thinking that it is going to be some time before we see this ones best again.)

3-Datts Happy 6-1 (Is the one of the most likely winners IMO...It may be a little hard to see in his running lines but in his last 10 the only poor races have been when he tried to route.Six good sprints that all would have a great chance to win in this spot and 4 lesser races at a mile or more.His last is better than it looked if you consider the track favored closers that day and its even more hidden because most people will assume sloppy/sealed track = speed favoring.Looks like a good bet at the ML but would make a true line more like 3-1.)

4-Much Stronger 7-2 (Is the one of the main dangers to the 3 because as noted above Jacobson is a miracle worker.Could go on for days with my suspicions on how these super dooper trainers are bending the rules but I'll just stick to the horses for the most part.This one is in the best form of his life even if it looks on some pps like he is going backward his last 2 races.Looks like the speed but has been versatile enough to sit behind horses if need be.

5-Mewannarose 15-1 (This is exactly the type of horse I'm usually a sucker for.Only 2 lifetime starts so plenty of room for improvement and in his only dirt sprint he won by making up a ton of ground from way off the pace while not even emptying the tank and it was a average to below average pace.The big difference is that it was at Parx where more often then not , there is a dead rail and it favors horses rallying wide from off the pace.Then a turf route at Belmont with David Cohen riding.If there ever was a toss out race, that is it.Still he comes in quite a few lengths short of competitive so it a guessing game how much better he is than his impressive maiden win at Parx.)

6-Ten Items Or Less 5-1 (Is the other of the likely winners...Takes a huge drop in class but L Rice is a trainer that just wants to win at Saratoga ever since she won the trainers title.However the thing that she is great at is turf sprints and this is dirt.Lightly raced with only 4 starts and was likely a good looking horse at the sales being he started his career with Pletcher.Have to use this one along with the 3.)

7-Lelaini's Ticket 4-1 (Is the trickiest horse to read in the race being he was claimed back from D Jacobson by D Galluscio the first chance he had after making 8 starts for Jacobson in protection.Is one of the fastest in here on his best but his first race since the claim wasn't too promising.Leading to the belief that Jacobson might have squeezed the lemon dry as he usually does.Tough call.

8-Midnight Music 8-1 (Is probably the slowest in here aside from the 1 but doesn't have the potential upside that one could because the 1 could have grew a lot in 9 months.Does drop in class which may wake him up but inclined to play against.


Betting - (Think playing against Dighton makes the race worth it.Could use the top 2 over 2 or 3 others 3,6/3,4,6,7(5) or if someone drifts because Dighton gets bet hard could just box the 4 next in line 3,4,6,7.A lot will depend on how the public bets the race.For Tri and Super players 3,6/3,4,6,7/1,3,4,5,6,7/1,3,4,5,6,7





Of course after all that Dighton prolly draws off by 10