[mikemca]

Will post my picks in here whenever I can.It is important to note that I require at least 3-1 on win bets so you won't see anything less than that on top.

Del Mar 7/17

Going to assume main track favoring closers and a fair turf course.


Race 1
2-Husband's Folly 7/2(Was against the track and still closed well at Hollywood last out should be flying at Del Mar)
8-Sir Bell 6/1(Is the fastest horse in here but long layoff/trainer having tough year are big ??)
10-Beer Meister 8/1(Another that should appreciate Del Mar more than BHP)

Race 2
7-Sinfully 6/1(Bad trip vs a slow pace last out.Is improving nicely.Watch out if takes to turf)
5-Keep Movin' 6/1(P Miller is loaded for the meet and excels in these spots)
4-Scorcher 5/2(Is the class of the field.Hard to beat if comes out running from long layoff)

Race 3
7-Say Say 7/2(Not that confident in this one but projects to get a dream trip with all speed in here besides her and 15/1 outsider Leona Pegasus)
5-Bluegrass Ellie 4/1(Is my pick of the speeds cutting back from a route)
6-Leona Pegasus 15/1(Not much to pick from if playing for a collapse)

Race 4
4-Cyclometer 7/2(Big pace advantage with 5 of the other 6 runners to be coming from off the pace)
6-Dreamcatcher 3/1(Is the best of the closers)
3-Kingpin Ryno 8/1(The only other runner with early speed.Should sit a perfect trip but not sure if good enough to run down Cyclometer)

Race 5
9-Jaycee's Faith 6/1(Hard to go against the Baffert 1ster but that one likely to be a lot lower than 3-1 ML.Bonde more than capable 1st out and the horses who've ran aren't much)
6-My Lucky Rose 3/1(Baffert wants to win the first baby race ,same as Pletcher on Friday at Spa.Hard to see this one being more than 2/1 but if she is it's not a good sign)
2-Cause Ur My Babe 6/1(Is best of the ones that ran.Against the track at BHP and may explode here)

Race 6
4-Greeley Awesome 10/1(Looks like this could be a chalky race with the 3 faves but sometimes Sadler is a miracle worker 1st off the claim)
5-Undrafted 5/2(Pick one of Undrafted,Gervinho,Freakin Rocket and plug it here.If two of those make the exacta then no money to be made here)
7-Tebows Big Play 20/1(Have to make it worth it if going to try and beat a fave.This one is improving and tried to close into a slow pace last out)

Race 7
6-Royal Meridian 3/1(Huge drop is cause for concern but maybe the Baffert and rail horse take enough money to make this one playable)
8-Legal Seperation 4/1(Another big dropper and First off the claim for Sadler)
1-Magic Beam 7/2(ML for all horses isn't going to hold up.One or two of these should drift)

Race 8
4-Bro's Bro 4/1(Got an education first out and has big chance if improving for 2nd run)
3-Trial Spin 12/1(Finished ahead of top choice last out but that one has more upside)
5-Love de Car 5/1(Not a good thing that making debut as 4 year old but Mullin/Rosario stats are tough to ignore.If want to take a shot replace with the 10)

Race 9
7-Joelito 5/1(Ran excellent 2 back against a tough field)
4-Den's Legacy 7/2(Figures to get a good trip and first run along with Joelito as the speed tires)
2-Gabriel Charles 5/1(Trainer not good with long layoffs but excels with every other stat applicable)

Race 10
9-Promissoryexchange 5/1(A lot better than showed in last and that dud may improve his price)
7-Grand Gambler 15/1(Took a nice step forward in 2nd start which makes him competitive so 15/1 is a lot)
1-Valid But True 20/1(Hunch pick but Belvoir and Espinoza are good together)

[Easy-Rider 66]

Thx Mike. Will keep your picks in mind when making plays on Derby Wars.

[mrginandtonic]

Nice!! Thanks mike.

[TonyP]

GO GO off his mounts today

[mrginandtonic]

GO GO off his mounts today

Is there something wrong with him?? He hasn't been riding much lately.

[TonyP]

Is there something wrong with him?? He hasn't been riding much lately.

have not heard.

[mikemca]

Uh oh.....Speed held together pretty good in the 1st.Think the 1-2-3-4 at the 1/2 finished 3-1-2-4

[Easy-Rider 66]

Good call race 6 with the #4. Almost got there for first, place pays $10.80.

[mikemca]

Good call race 6 with the #4. Almost got there for first, place pays $10.80.

Thx yeah sucks not to get it home.Other than that though just a chalky exacta and a couple close calls.First days are tough so expecting better tomorrow.

[mikemca]

Del Mar 7/18

Race 1
6-Tiz Molly 5-1 (The way she broke her maiden 2 starts back was extremely impressive closing into a slow pace while losing the whip)
2-Minds Eyes 6-1 (Sadler looks loaded for the start of the meet and even more so after trainer change with short lay off)
3-Sassy Suances 6-1 (Is 3 for 6 career and 2 of those wins came first start off the bench as is today)

Race 2
1-She's All Yours 3-1 (Lays over these on figs but drop is suspicious)
9-Eltoninadress 12-1 (Thinking these out of circuit shippers are going to fare well because of 33% bonus for them.Especially if in capable trainers hands)
5-Frequent Fame 8-1 (Same as the 9) (After the 1 anyone can win)

Race 3
12-Howdoyoufindthered 12-1 (Comes in fresh off a short layoff with nice steady works that look like they were intended to put gate speed into her after breaking slow both career starts in USA)
9-My Pal Ariana 9-2 (Hate betting Chantal because of her fanbase but we saw turnbacks do well yesterday)
8-Speedy Vixen 6-1 (Will eventually break maiden when finding the right field at this level but until then 2nds and 3rds)
5-Frannie'sspirittoo 8-1 (Had to use 4 in this race because this one is identical as the 8.Just needs the right field but will be ITM a lot until then)

Race 4
4-J And S Express 3-1 (Is going to be tough if running back to last race)
8-Addendum 6-1 (Closed strong against slow pace last out vs tougher)
2-Quinnette 12-1 (Should improve 2nd off bench and slight rise in class is a good sign)

Race 5
8-Plus One 15-1 (Can't separate the logical contenders so will just play this one to wire them all)

Race 6
8-Storm Reveler 20-1 (Trainer pretty good with 1sters and not much in here)

Race 7
5-Shumoos 8-1 (Like this one a lot.Can rate if need be.Afraid of the Baffert the most as he is like 98% when turning horses back)

Race 8
1-Beachcombing 8-1 (Is a good horse and class of the field formerly with Chad Brown but obviously has issues with all the layoff lines.That said these kind of horses usually run their best 1st off the layoff and then go backward.Trainer OK with 180+ lay ups)
3-Black And Beauty 15-1 (Get a good look in paddock to see if he looks good.Very good sign that Sadler claimed this one back after the 1st race since he it was claimed from him)
5-Winsome Charm 8-1 (Looks very lonely on the lead and is competitive on best even with low % jock)
2-Romeo Royale 8-1 (Have to go deep in this race looking for big payout.This one 2nd from layoff is in the picture if improving back to last years form)

[TonyP]

Mike do we post our Del Mar picks in here to if we want to?

[mikemca]

Yeah I don't care.Not you but any redboards will be called out.

[TonyP]

after watching replays of yesterday looks like Legal Seperation had to go way wide and still was coming maybe next out with better trip

[TonyP]

DMR day 2 -7-18

1--5,4,3
2--5,6,1
3--6,2,--pass
4--7,6,4
5--3,8,4,2
6--2,3
7--1,4,7,5
8--10.8--bb

[no1here]

first race $10 show #6 entering twinspires promo to share 1.5K
$1 tri key 6/1-4-5-7

second race $10 show #1 if I hit first race show bet
$1 tri keys 1/2-3-6 and 6/1-2-3
(very tough race)

daily double 6-6

May we all get off to a good start! I did hit first race tri yesterday but nothing else

[no1here]

3rd race
$1 tri Keys 9/8/4-11-12 and 9/4-11-12/8
#9 shorter distance will help today

[mikemca]

Friggin Bejarano wins R1-R2-R3....Cost me some big payouts in 1st and 3rd

[Easy-Rider 66]

So Far so good Day 2. 2 wins/2 place. Has me in first place in a small contest on DW. Let's see if the last 3 races play out well.

[mikemca]

GL mine didn't fill and got cancelled

[Easy-Rider 66]

GL mine didn't fill and got cancelled

If I see you in the same DW game will handicap myself so not competing against you with your picks. But if not will be using your picks as a resource at times. Paying off a betpoints loan, but will throw you some points down the line. Thx.

[mikemca]

NP Storm Reveler is pretty dead on the board in the 6th.Depending on ur lead u may want o re assess if picking a logical one here would be better.

[Easy-Rider 66]

#8 did not run too badly. Bad start. Will stay the course.

[TonyP]

dont play my del mar picks

[mikemca]

I'm progressing but damn its near impossible to get a long shot home here.All favorites and short prices.


Bring on the Spaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

[Easy-Rider 66]

Yeah had some good luck last year taking some shots at Saratoga. Keeneland 2013 was chalk city for a major part of the meet.

[mikemca]

Opening day at the spaaaah looks great.


Saratoga

Race 1
You can make a case for just about all of these so I'll try to guess who gets the best trips.2-Wayward Sailor 12-1 has a pretty big pace advantage here and arguably the best front running jock in the country.Set the pace 2 back at this level and lost by a nose.The horses I see with the best chance of running him down are 5-Minister Colin 5-1,4-Money In Motion 12-1, and 9-Which Market 8-1.If you just want to take a stab at a bomb or throw it in a exotic I would even give 3-Kingofthebluegrass a shot at 30-1.Have no idea how to play this yet, maybe 2/3,4,5,9 key ex bx or a more logical 5/2,3,4,9.

Race 2
Another impossible looking race where its splitting hairs to separate the field.I'm standing with 6-Unaccountable 8-1 who is 16 for 23 ITM at the distance and 4 for 5 ITM at the Spa so seems as good a key as any.Have to find a way to narrow down the next 6 pack of horses who look like contenders so I'll just use the higher odds since I can't justify playing the favorite here.That leaves me with 1-Nineinthenine 5-1,8-Yankee Fortune 8-1, and 12-Short Shrift 10-1.The long shot stab is 5-Terminus 30-1 only got 1 try at turf in first start of 21 race career.

Race 3
Hard to beat Pletcher firsters at Saratoga and he has his pick of two here in 1-Stopchargingmaria and 1A-Our Amazing Rose.To diminish the value in this race even more is that 2nd ml choice 7-Art Of The Game looks like the only obvious challenger.Zito not known for firsters but this one looks like she has been fast in the AM works.Trying to find any value brought me to 6-J Quirk 10-1.By a good win early sire in Unbridled's Song she can come out running but Contessa is on a horrible run with 1sters so may want to demand more than ml if taking a shot on the win end.Or 3-Predicate 8-1 who is the only filly with experience having run once and got beat by True Blue Nation who runs in the R9 GIII Schylerville.

Race 4
No doubt 3-Hessonite 6-5 isn't running at her peak but she drops out of graded stakes into the restricted statebred races she was trouncing by 4-5 lengths over and over.Between her and 5-Shakeira 2-1 they have beaten most of the runners in this field multiple times.If there is any knock its that they both like to come from somewhat off the pace so that leads me to 9-Wholelottashakin 10-1 who is the best of the speed but has lost to the top 2 quite a few times.

Race 5
A MSW without a Pletcher doesn't happen too often and he is particularly loaded in #s this meet.Going to be hard to decide which 2 in here are going to come out running so just going with one horse.The 3-Michonne 10-1 goes for a relatively unknown trainer in Michelle Nevin but pretty sure these are horses that would have went to R Dutrow so they are going to be well meant.

Race 6
Going to play 3-Subtle to wire them here.Servis and Lezcano are money together and the horse wasn't too far away at this level when trying it last year .9-Neck Of The Moon 3-1 looks like a bad favorite on the surface but Chad Brown is unbelievable in these spots bringing back horses from a layoff on the turf.My long shot is 10-Fantastic Eyes 12-1 who will be flying late and has a chance if getting a hot pace.Last the 2-Invading Humor 10-1 is a good enough price to use after running a decent race first time on turf.Some horses improve leaps and bounds 2nd time turf and this one has room to grow.

Race 7
I think this is 6-Strike One's coming out party as long as he brings his KY form to NY.4-Titletown Five 5-1 would be my 2nd choice and is an overlay at 5-1.5-Wall Dance 12-1 and 10-Dawly 12-1 are my prices and both figure to be coming late.I am weery of R Rod's cold streak so not going to be surprised if Dawly gets outrun evn though he fits.

Race 8
This race looks kind of formful between the 4 or 5 favorites however I think 3-Souper Speedy 5-2 and 5-Jaguar Paw 6-1 look the strongest.9-Strapping Groom and 1-Politicallycorrect would be next but just think W/P on the 5 looks good.

Jaguar Paw scratched ruining any value the race had...3-1-9


Race 9
Going to be surprised if 4-Brazen Persuasion 3-1 and 5-Bahnah 7-5 aren't fighting for the win .

Race 10
Really liked 9-Sunbio here before the ml came out but then Eric D made him the favorite at 5-2.He has been asking for more ground each of his 4 races and finally gets it here.Looking for value brings me to the MDC risers 10-Reventon 15-1 and 11-Trainingforsuccess 15-1 ,who both have races competitive enough they just have to pass the class test, and 6-Birchwood Road 12-1 who goes 2nd off the bench after being wide last race.


Reventon scratched will replace with 12-Sunnysider 12-1

[Madison]

Thanks again Mike for your time!

[mikemca]

Np...Looks like 4 chalky races now with scratch of Jaguar Paw

[mikemca]

I think I can...I think I can...I think I can



Del Mar

Race 1
6-Ms Pianist 12-1
Race 2
1-Wild Tony 8-1
Race 3
1-G'Night 10-1
Race 4
7-JKs Mischief 7-2
Race 5
5-Water Issues 7-2
Race 6
8-Pure Loyalty 7-2
Race 7
7-Say's Who 10-1
Race 8
1-Perfect Jersey 12-1

[Easy-Rider 66]

Short Shrift pays $30.40 for Race #2. Too bad I did not take a shot.

[mikemca]

Pretty good day.....Tomorrow's card looks awesome with all kinds of bombs coming

[mikemca]

Summer Applause scratched out of CC Oaks...She will give Royal Delta all she can handle in Delaware Handicap.

[harthebar]

mike .....thanks for picks

[Madison]

Mike,

DMR Race 6 #2 inside bias. Closed from the moon outside. Thoughts as play back?

[mikemca]

mike .....thanks for picks

Np going on vacation for a week so might miss a few days but the days I get some downtime will pm you guys picks or write ups again.Win/Place bets have been a little sporadic but close to a $200 exacta yesterday and $140 exacta today .

Mike,

DMR Race 6 #2 inside bias. Closed from the moon outside. Thoughts as play back?

Sorry was busy all day getting things together