1. #1
    booboo
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    Booboo's NHL Hockey System Picks

    As you can see this is only my second post. I am new on SBR. However I have been reading for a while and picked up on a hockey system that I have adapted to my own. This system is not new. There are several posts on here that refer to it. This is similar to John Morrison NHL, El Capitan has a system similar to it. McCain wrote about it last year. So please know that I don't think that this is mine only. I would like to share though how I have been using this system.

    I hope to be able to make this a season long post. I will post the games as they come up. Basically here is the system as I have been playing it. Since the beginning of the season it has a record of 11-1.

    Here are the guidelines I am going with.
    1. This is a 3 game progression. I use teams that are on at least a three game road trip. If there are more than three games in a series then I don't use the remaining games, unless certain factors are in place.
    2. At the beginning of the season I use last years records for determining what teams to play on. If last year the team had a winning road record they qualify as picks. I have used these records up until November.
    3. Starting in November there are some new criteria for the picks. In order to be a play the team must have a winning, or an even, road record. If they have a losing road record there is no play.
    4. I use ESPN power rankings (PR) to determine the top 4 and the bottom 4 teams. If in a three game road trip the team is going against one of those four teams, then it is not a play. Unless there are more that 3 games for the road trip. I will then pick up the fourth game as a replacement game. If the road trip is only 3 games and a top 4 team is on the schedule then there is no play. Example of this was Saturday I had possible plays with Tampa Bay, Boston and Nashville. I played Tampa Bay and Boston. Nashville was going against Detroit which is a top four PR team. Nashville is on more than a three game road trip and so I am using their game 4 to round out the three games.
    5. This very rarely happens, but if a team is in the bottom 4 power rankings and they have a winning road record, that will also be a no play series.
    6. I use a three line labby for this. The lines correspond to what game in the series is being played. I write the lines like this with 1 being the unit size.
    Gm 1: 1-1-1-1
    Gm 2: 1-1-1-1
    Gm 3: 1-1-1-1
    I add the amount played to the end. So if game 1 is a loss it would look like this: 1-1-1-1-2
    If game one is a win it would look like this x-1-1-x
    I don't add game losses to the next line but keep them on the line of which the game fits the progression.
    When a line is cleared I move it up 1/2 unit, so that line one now looks like this. 1.5-1.5-1.5-1.5

    Those are the basic guidelines of how I am using the system.

  2. #2
    booboo
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    The team road series that I have played on thus far are
    Colorado
    St. Louis
    Calgary
    Pittsburgh
    San Jose
    Los Angeles
    Buffalo
    New Jersey
    Phoenix
    Washington
    Boston
    Tampa Bay

    They all won but St Louis, which lost all three road games.

    The next possible games are on Wednesday. The Power Rankings have not come out yet today. I use the weekly PR's to determine the top and bottom teams.

    I will post the games on here before Wednesday. I am not going to post the labby on here, yet. Just the picks. If I get asked to post the labby, then I will consider it.

    Thanks for reading!

  3. #3
    booboo
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    Going with the above criteria there are 4 road series that I am following this week.
    The teams are Pittsburgh, Detroit, Calgary and Philadelphia.
    Tonight there are two games
    The teams I am beginning new series tonight are
    PITTSBURGH vs. Dallas ml Game 1
    CALGARY vs. Minnesota ml Game 1

  4. #4
    booboo
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    Sorry, tonight it is DETROIT vs Calgary ml Game 1
    Calgary series starts November 5

  5. #5
    booboo
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    Ok, Game 1 with Detroit was a win. Record now 12-1. Like I said earlier I am using a labby.
    Going to game 2 with Pittsburgh. They lost to Dallas 5-2.

    Next games are on Friday November 5.
    Game 2 PITTSBURGH vs Anaheim
    Game 1 CALGARY vs Minnesota

  6. #6
    booboo
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    So far the record is 14-1 with 1 series in progress.

    We have two teams that we are following this week, Calgary and St. Louis. The Calgary three game series started November 5 with a loss in Game 1. Game 2 is tomorrow night November 9, and Game 3 is November 12. When this series was selected Calgary had a .500 road average, so was a selection.

    The second series that we are watching this week is St. Louis with Game 1 on November 13, Game 2 November 15, and Game 3 is November 17. St. Louis has a .500 road record so is a selection.

    Six other teams are also starting on three game road series but none of them meet the criteria for making selections. This week their were 18 possible teams that could have been selected. The six that ended up being no plays were these:
    Vancouver with a losing road record
    NY Islanders with a losing road record and number 27 of 30 Power rankings
    Ottawa with a losing road record
    Florida with a losing road record
    Anaheim with a losing road record
    New Jersey with a losing road record and 29/30 in Power Rankings.

    I will attempt to keep updated about when plays come up and whether series continue or it is ending.

    Each week on Monday when the Power ranking come out I make plans for the upcoming week. This is the data that I collected for this week.
    Power Rankings
    Top 4 Week 6

    1. St. Louis
    2. Los Angeles
    3. Philadelphia
    4. Vancouver



    Bottom 4 Week 6

    1. NY Islanders
    2. Edmonton
    3. New Jersey
    4. Toronto



    2010-2011 Teams with winning road records
    Pittsburgh
    Montreal
    NY Rangers
    Boston
    Chicago
    Colorado
    Los Angeles
    Columbus
    Detroit
    Dallas 11


    Teams with .500 Road Records
    Atlanta
    Buffalo
    Tampa Bay
    Philadelphia
    Washington
    San Jose
    Minnesota
    St. Louis7


    2010-2011 Teams with losing road records
    New Jersey
    Carolina
    Ottawa
    Nashville
    Edmonton
    NY Islanders
    Vancouver
    Toronto
    Phoenix
    Anaheim
    Calgary
    Florida 12

    Thanks for reading.

  7. #7
    booboo
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    Ok I am now at 15-1 with this system.
    Calgary came through tonight and beat Colorado.
    The next game in this NHL system with my criteria is ST. LOUIS vs. Phoenix on November 13.

    In the next post I am expanding this system. Once again I am using the Labrouchere system with these plays.

  8. #8
    booboo
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    Reverse NHL System


    In this system I am going to be using teams with records under .500 as they go on 3 game road trips. The NHL system has been successful using teams with road records at .500 and above. However I have found that there are a lot of teams that are left out because of their records. How can I utilize these unused road trips into more opportunities.


    The thought came to me that still using these teams as they go on road trips but do a reverse system using the opponents that they are facing. In essence it is a laying system in NHL.


    There will be certain criteria that I will be using. These include:

    1. The team must be on a road trip of at least three games
    2. The team must have a losing road record to be considered.
    3. The teams season win/loss ratio must be below .500.
    4. 2 of the teams that the pick are facing must have a season record of .500 or above
    5. I will also use Power Ranking to determine some picks. Those teams in the bottom 5 PR will always be a pick no matter what other teams they face.
    6. I will be using a three line labourchere with the series. Each line corresponding to the game in the series.



    Teams and their opponents for this week are:


    NY Islanders Pick 11/10 Anaheim, 11/11 San Jose, 11/13 Los Angeles
    Florida Pick 11/13Philadelphia 11/17 Atlanta 11/18 Boston 11/20 NY Islanders
    New Jersey Pick 11/15 Boston 11/18 Toronto 11/20 St Louis


    At the time of the series beginning make sure that all criteria is met before making pick.


    So the first pick is ANAHEIM vs. NY Islanders on November 10.

  9. #9
    booboo
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    Anaheim won tonight for a win on the first reverse bet of this system.
    The record for this is now 16-1.

    The next selections don't come up until November 13. I will give confirmation on the picks after the games of November 12.

    Using a labby with these picks has also helped with a feeling of balance when making choices.

    Thanks for reading!

  10. #10
    KapnKrunch
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    Booboo,

    Thank you for posting....I'm studying your systems and viewing your posts...Thank you for sharing...

    KapnKrunch
    Last edited by KapnKrunch; 11-12-10 at 07:44 PM.

  11. #11
    booboo
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    Ok, there are two new series starting on the 13th. There is one reverse starting and one regular starting.

    The Reverse is with Florida. They are playing Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Boston with a 3 game road series.
    The first game is with PHILADELPHIA vs Florida on Saturday Nov. 13.

    The straight NHL 3 game road series is with St. Louis. This is interesting because the only loss this year so far was with St. Louis. They lost 3 road games in a row. They are now on top of the Power Rankings for this week though. St. Louis three road games are with Phoenix, Colorado, and Detroit. Hopefully they will win at least one of those games in this series.
    Saturday November 13 choice is ST. LOUIS vs. Phoenix

    Thanks KapnKrunch for the response. I am hoping this works out. Doing well so far.

    Thanks all for reading!

  12. #12
    booboo
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    Had a series win and moving on to Game 2 with the other game.
    Record now 17-1.
    On the Reverse Play of this system Philadelphia beat Florida. This was the second Game 1 win on the Reverse side.
    St. Louis lost in Phoenix and is moving on to Game 2.

    There are no more games until Monday. I will confirm plays after games on Sunday.

    Thanks for reading!

  13. #13
    booboo
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    There are two games on Monday that fit this system.

    The first one is to take ST. LOUIS. This is the second game in this series. The Blues are playing Colorado. They lost the first game in this series to Phoenix.
    Second game for Monday falls in the reverse portion of this system. New Jersey is starting a 3 game road series. This falls into the system as the Devils have a losing road record, and two of the teams they are playing have an above .500 season record. The play on this game is BOSTON.

    So once again the plays are
    ST. LOUIS
    BOSTON

    Thanks for reading!

  14. #14
    KapnKrunch
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    Quote Originally Posted by booboo View Post
    There are two games on Monday that fit this system.

    The first one is to take ST. LOUIS. This is the second game in this series. The Blues are playing Colorado. They lost the first game in this series to Phoenix.
    Second game for Monday falls in the reverse portion of this system. New Jersey is starting a 3 game road series. This falls into the system as the Devils have a losing road record, and two of the teams they are playing have an above .500 season record. The play on this game is BOSTON.

    So once again the plays are
    ST. LOUIS
    BOSTON

    Thanks for reading!


    I have taken a wager on Saint Louis Money Line Good Luck to All

  15. #15
    booboo
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    New Week Report

    Kapn good luck on St. Louis.

    Time for a new week for the Booboo Hockey System. Once again this is taken from several different systems that have been posted on the Forums. For me this is in an evolutionary state and is developing as time goes on. I have posted the basic guidelines for this system in previous posts. It is time to update for the week and determine plays for the week.


    As posted already there are two plays for today.
    The straight system play is ST. LOUIS
    The reverse play of this system is BOSTON


    The Power Rankings for this week are
    Top Four

    1. Los Angeles
    2. Detroit
    3. Philadelphia
    4. Vancouver



    Bottom Four

    1. New Jersey
    2. Toronto
    3. NY Islanders
    4. Edmonton



    To determine plays I need to know what the road record is for each team.
    Teams with road records above .500
    Pittsburgh
    Buffalo
    Montreal
    Boston
    Colorado
    Philadelphia
    NY Rangers
    Tampa Bay
    Los Angeles
    Detroit
    Columbus 11




    Teams with .500 road records
    Chicago
    Washington
    Ottawa
    Nashville
    San Jose 5


    Teams with road records below .500
    Atlanta
    Vancouver
    Phoenix
    Carolina
    New Jersey
    St. Louis
    Anaheim
    Minnesota
    Edmonton
    NY Islanders
    Calgary
    Dallas
    Toronto
    Florida 14


    So as seen above there are 16 teams that I am able to use on the regular system as they have .500 or above road records. For the reverse system plays there are 14 possible teams.


    The teams starting road series this week through November 21 are:
    Nashville
    Tampa Bay
    Phoenix
    Columbus
    Los Angeles
    Colorado
    Calgary


    Lets look at these plays


    Nashville is a .500 road team. It is on the road vs. Toronto, Montreal, Carolina. None of these teams is a top 4 in Power Rankings, so this is a play.


    Tampa Bay has an above .500 road record. It is on the road vs. NY Islanders, Philadelphia, Buffalo. Philadelphia is in the top four in Power Rankings. Even though Tampa Bay would probably be favored vs. the Islanders and Buffalo, the whole series is considered so this is not a play.


    Phoenix has a below .500 road record. This may be a possible reverse play. Looking at the season record though it is above .500 so does not qualify as a reverse play. To be a reverse play both the road record and the season record have to be below .500. So no play here. Will reevaluate after games of November 16 to reconfirm.


    Columbus has a below .500 road record. Its season record is above .500. No play here. Will reevaluate game day.


    Los Angeles is an automatic for the regular system. It is atop the Power Rankings, and it is facing teams that are not in the PR's. So LA is a play.


    Colorado has a road record above .500. It is facing Dallas, Vancouver, and Edmonton. Vancouver is in the top 4 PR's, so there is no play here.


    Calgary has a road record below .500. Its season record is below .500. It is facing Detroit, NY Rangers, and New Jersey. Two of the teams in the series have above .500 season records. This series qualifies as a reverse play. Will reevaluate game day. Once series starts can not stop series till it is won or finished 3 games.


    So the series this week for the regular part of this system are
    NASHVILLE 11/16 stare
    LOS ANGELES 11/19 start


    Possible Reverse play is on
    CALGARY, pick DETROIT 11/21 start.

    Thanks for reading and good luck all this week!

  16. #16
    JEFFM22551
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    thanks for all you do. I am new to this forum. I am assuming your picks are all moneyline?

  17. #17
    booboo
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    Real quick on mobile. Yes they are ml. Considering changing reverse plays to pl. High juice on reverse. Not there yet though. Hope this answered your question.

  18. #18
    booboo
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    On the Monday games we had one win and one loss.
    The system record is now at 18-1-1

    Boston beat New Jersey in game 1 of the reverse plays. This is the third straight reverse play with a game one win. I wonder how much longer this will continue? I am definitely considering turning the reverse plays into a puck line wager. Using labrouchere makes this easier to do.

    St. Louis lost game 2 of their road series. Their next game is Tuesday vs. Detroit. Detroit is in the top Four Power Rankings, so ending this series at game 2. When this series started Detroit was not in that ranking. I am going to count this as a push as it did not win or lose, but had to stop before finishing.

    The play for Tuesday is with Nashville. They are starting a three game road series. Their first game is with Toronto.

    So Tuesdays Play
    NASHVILLE

    Thanks for reading!

  19. #19
    tuxStyle
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    Hi.

    I see you use MoneyLine. Is this 3 way or OT included?
    And i'm wondering what are the average odds. Do you have some stats?
    I saw various versions of this system and some are using puck line with +1.5 on underdog or ML on favorite but the odds are too small so no worth the risk.

    Thank you

  20. #20
    booboo
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    tuxStyle
    Yes I have been using ml and OT is included. As far as odds, I have not kept constant stats on those. This is from memory only. The odds for the straight system are running from -105 to -120. The odds on the reverse system have been running from -180 to -220. These have been high juice, but have been winning regularly. Like I said earlier I am considering making these reverse plays into pl wagers, but want to see how they do a couple of more times. Just started these.

  21. #21
    tuxStyle
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    Thank you for the answer.
    I'm using Pinnacle and they have "MONEY LINE" for both 3 way and OT
    I was pretty sure you used OT included but not 100%.

    I guess is time to get used with this type of odds (-105, -120, -180, etc) as i only used the decimal odds until now.

    I'm using something like you use ... underdogs to win 1 in 3 outside if they don't play against top 5 or -1.5 on top5 when at home and works pretty well.

    Oh, and i'm using labby too
    Unfortunately i don't have much time to run some stats or do some back check but i hope i can do it in january.


    Again, thank you for your answer.

  22. #22
    booboo
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    I thought I had posted this but don't see it.
    Had a win and a loss on Tuesday. Boston won the reverse and Nashville lost the straight.
    Watched some of the first period on Nashville game. When I stopped watching they were up 3-0. Had to turn it off and then found out Toronto? won and that they scored on 4 power plays.

    No games for Wednesday.
    Next game is on Thursday. Game 2 of this series.
    NASHVILLE vs. Montreal

    Thanks for reading!

  23. #23
    booboo
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    Reminder tonight's play is Game 2 for NASHVILLE.

    Just a thought on last nights St. Louis game vs. Detroit. The guidelines of this system saved a loss. When the St. Louis series began Detroit was not in the top four Power Rankings. This past Monday they were placed in the top four. The system guidelines are that when a top four Power Ranking team is in the series don't make a play on it. St. Louis is supposed to be a quality team this year too. If I had finished the series the two lost series for this season would have been the Blues. I think I did the right thing by staying away from that game.

  24. #24
    tuxStyle
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    Quote Originally Posted by booboo View Post
    Reminder tonight's play is Game 2 for NASHVILLE.

    Just a thought on last nights St. Louis game vs. Detroit. The guidelines of this system saved a loss. When the St. Louis series began Detroit was not in the top four Power Rankings. This past Monday they were placed in the top four. The system guidelines are that when a top four Power Ranking team is in the series don't make a play on it. St. Louis is supposed to be a quality team this year too. If I had finished the series the two lost series for this season would have been the Blues. I think I did the right thing by staying away from that game.
    St. Louis have quite a few injuries from what i know and most likely this is the reason.
    And about Predators with Leafs ... that was a crazy game
    Games like that are probably exceptions from rules...

  25. #25
    booboo
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    Hey tuxStyle, yep St. Louis is going through a lot of injuries, and that fact should be taken into account too when doing these games. What I think happens though is the fact that is already going into account by the bookmakers and the lines are being adjusted accordingly. I am still going to follow system guidelines.
    It was an interesting game last night for Nashville. It was a win, however the thing that was noticed was that the Defense that Nashville played was very tight. This after the four pk's that were scored upon by Toronto last game.
    Let's keep on rolling here.

  26. #26
    booboo
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    Had a series win last night in Game 2 with Nashville.
    Record is now 19-1-1.

    There is a new road series starting tonight. The Kings start at Buffalo tonight. Then go to Boston, Ottawa, and Montreal. We only use the first three.
    So tonights play is
    LOS ANGELES KINGS.

    Thanks for reading!

  27. #27
    booboo
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    Had a loss in Game 1 in the Los Angeles Road series.
    There is one game on Saturday
    Game 2
    LOS ANGELES

    Thanks for reading!

  28. #28
    tuxStyle
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    I still didn't understand your system very well but, aren't Chicago on a 6 game run?
    Also, Anaheim 3 games?

  29. #29
    KapnKrunch
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    Quote Originally Posted by booboo View Post
    Had a loss in Game 1 in the Los Angeles Road series.
    There is one game on Saturday
    Game 2
    LOS ANGELES

    Thanks for reading!

    I took a loss on Saint Louis on Nov 15...no worries...I didn't chase the 3rd game...I've been busy and haven't followed the forum lately....
    Today I have LA Kings (+1.5) Good Luck all!

  30. #30
    booboo
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    KapnKrunch I didn't chase game 3 either. Counted that series as a push since not completed. I guess realistically it was a loss.

    tuxStyle Here are explanations for why I didn't play Anaheim or Chicago.
    Anaheim has a losing road record so they don't get played. Only play teams that have a .500 or above road record.

    Chicago is on a six game road trip. A couple of things here. They are playing during the first three games Vancouver which is the number four ranked Power Ranked team. I don't play a three game series if one of those games is a top four power ranking team. Also I don't play the games past the first three. I used to pick up the fourth game in the series. I have decided there are enough games and that it is best to follow the system. So no more fourth games.

    Hopefully this helped you understand a little better.

    Thanks for reading!

  31. #31
    booboo
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    Had a win tonight with Los Angeles!
    Record now is 20-1-1

    There is one play for Sunday and it is a Reverse Play. This is Game 1 in this series
    Reverse Calgary play on the Red Wings

    So Pick is DETROIT.
    This can either be a money line or a puck line play. I am going to play money line.

    Thanks for reading!

  32. #32
    tuxStyle
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    Quote Originally Posted by booboo View Post
    KapnKrunch I didn't chase game 3 either. Counted that series as a push since not completed. I guess realistically it was a loss.

    tuxStyle Here are explanations for why I didn't play Anaheim or Chicago.
    Anaheim has a losing road record so they don't get played. Only play teams that have a .500 or above road record.

    Chicago is on a six game road trip. A couple of things here. They are playing during the first three games Vancouver which is the number four ranked Power Ranked team. I don't play a three game series if one of those games is a top four power ranking team. Also I don't play the games past the first three. I used to pick up the fourth game in the series. I have decided there are enough games and that it is best to follow the system. So no more fourth games.

    Hopefully this helped you understand a little better.

    Thanks for reading!
    Ok.

    I understand Anaheim.

    But still, Chicago should be able to have 1 win in 5 games if you let out Vancouver.
    Is because the money management needing a bigger investment if first 4 are lost?

    I'm not saying to change the system it works well it seems.
    I'm just trying to understand the reasoning behind the rules.

    Oh, and another issue... do you have any idea how ESPN is calculating the ratings?
    Is based on stats or is an objective opinion from somebody?
    It seems some teams are overrated ...

    EDIT : one more question about money management.
    If first 2 games are lost and 3rd won, with the MM you use, you are still loosing money isn't it?

    Line: 1-1-1-1

    Assuming even odds, if first is won, you win 2u.
    Stake = 2

    If first is lost, second won, you win 1u.
    Line: 1-1-1-1-2
    Stake = 3, Won 3u.
    3-2 = 1

    If first two are lost and 3rd won, you loose 1u
    Line: 1-1-1-1-2-3
    Stake = 4, Won 4u
    4-3-2 = -1

    Am i wrong?

    Thank you!
    Last edited by tuxStyle; 11-21-10 at 11:55 AM.

  33. #33
    booboo
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    Before I get to carried away here, let me say once again this is not my system. I have taken it from posts that I've read here on the forums. I am adapting it to my own style. The basic guidelines say to play the first three only. My assumption is that the reason we don't go four or more is because of the chase factor. As you may have noticed the record is now 20-1-1. I think it is doing pretty well as is. Thanks for your input tuxStyle.

  34. #34
    booboo
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    Another win on Sunday. Another Game 1 win on Reverse plays.
    Calgary lost to Detroit in Overtime.
    Record now is 21-1-1
    Weekly report will be up tomorrow. No plays till later in the week.

    Thanks for reading!

  35. #35
    booboo
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    Weekly Report 11/22/10

    Time to look at another week for the system. Over the past week our record has grown to 21-1-1. There are several series starting this week. I am going to change the source of where to get the Power Rankings. It was brought up that the ESPN ranking have a human bias and that some teams may be ranked higher than they should be. This week I will be taking ratings from Sagarin Power Rankings. These rankings are computer generated and are posted on USA Today.


    Just a run down on how I am working the system. There are two parts to the system. These are playing the games straight and playing a reverse system. Both systems have to have a three game road series in order to get started.


    In the straight system teams have to have a road record of .500 and above to begin. The teams cannot be playing teams in the top four Power Rankings during that road series. If road series go more than three games only the first three games will be considered. I play this as a labby. It can also be used as a three game chase.


    In the reverse system the teams have to have an overall record of below .500 to start. They also have to be going on a three game road series to qualify. Of the teams that they are facing two of them have to have an above .500 record overall. If they are in the bottom four of the Power Rankings the teams are to be played no matter the level of the other teams they are playing.




    Top 4 Power Ranking Teams
    1. Detroit
    2. Columbus
    3. Philadelphia
    4. Los Angeles


    Bottom 4 Power Ranking Teams
    27. Buffalo
    28. New Jersey
    29. Edmonton
    30. New York


    Teams with winning road records
    Phoenix
    Detroit
    Columbus
    Chicago
    Nashville
    Colorado
    Philadelphia
    Pittsburgh
    N.Y. Rangers
    Montreal 10


    Teams with .500 road records
    Los Angeles
    Minnesota 2


    Teams with losing road records
    Anaheim
    San Jose
    Dallas
    St. Louis
    Vancouver
    Calgary
    Edmonton
    New Jersey
    N.Y. Islanders
    Boston
    Ottawa
    Buffalo
    Toronto
    Washington
    Tampa Bay
    Atlanta
    Carolina
    Florida 18



    There are three road series this week that qualify as plays. They are:
    Straight Play
    1. New York Rangers have a road record and season record above .500.

    Reverse Plays
    2. Florida has a below .500 season record and road record. Thus are a play against team this week.
    3. Edmonton is in the bottom four power rankings so they are an automatic reverse play team.

    Here is the date of the first play for each series and who to play on. I will update these after previous nights games.
    11/24 NEW YORK RANGERS
    11/27 FLORIDA
    11/29 EDMONTON

    Good Luck All,
    Thanks for reading!

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