[jontebond]

Flyers TT Over 2.5 (3u)
Game Over 5.5 (2u)
Flyers in Regulation (1.5u)
Flyers -1.5 (1u) Rangers in Regulation (2u)
Rangers -1.5 (1.5u) Blue Jackets @ Capitals: Over 5.5 (2.5u) Canucks @ Coyotes: Over 5.5 (6u)

3-5-0 (+0.81)

[jontebond]

Keep pulling trough you'll make it out

Yeah, when I play heavy, it mostly goes in, the worst two has been Dallas vs Florida and last nights flyers vs buffalo.

watched the Flyers yesterday, they just looked out of gas, one of the worst performance this year, painful.

[jontebond]

31/10:

Early game, lets start:

Islanders @ Devils: Islanders ML (3u), Islanders in Regulation (2u), Islanders -1.5 (1.5u)
Here is why I think Islanders is the pick.

Halak' stats vs NJ: 2.14 with save pct: .927
Islanders coming of a loss in OT to Carolina, which they can't be really happy with.
Islanders havn't lost to Devils in 6 games.
They are simply just a stronger team and better team.
Devils is one of the worst shoots per goal in the league, and that is not good at all in the long run.
Islander have one of the best PP in the league, and Devils penalty kill is one of the worst.
Devils is also good in PP but Islanders leads the league in PK, so I'm not worried about that stats.
Devils puck possession stats is also much worst then Islanders, so their wins more then .500 is more based on luck then skill.

[jontebond]

Fuk!! Tavares is not playing.

Islanders ML (3u)
Islanders in Regulation (2u)
Islanders -1.5 (1.5u)

[jontebond]

Sharks @ Stars: Sharks in regulation (3u), Sharks -1.5 (2.5u)
I think Sharks defense is way better then dallas. Sharks will be more desparate to win this, only have won 1 in 5 games.

[jontebond]

WTF is going on, now Sharks play their backup goalie, starlack, jesus, last minute confirmation is killing me.

[jontebond]

Penguins @ Maple Leafs: Penguins in Regulation (10u), Penguins -1.5 (8u)
Penguins has all the momentum in the world. Both first and second line looking good. Fehr back in the lineup in the forth line, which will add good size to this team.
Goalie, Fleury has played fantastic, vs a shaky goalie in Toronto.

The only time this will not hit is if Fleury takes a really bad night and let in 4-5 soft goals.

[Locke]

WTF is going on, now Sharks play their backup goalie, starlack, jesus, last minute confirmation is killing me.

what site do you use to find out your starting tendys?

[jontebond]

what site do you use to find out your starting tendys?

http://www2.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/
But it said Jones likely, too be honest I should have waited 10 minutes before puck dropped, but I got busy with some other stuff.

[jontebond]

Islanders ML (3u)
Islanders in Regulation (2u)
Islanders -1.5 (1.5u)
Sharks in regulation (3u)
Sharks -1.5 (2.5u)
Penguins in Regulation (10u)
Penguins -1.5 (8u)

Fleury is amazing, he might win the Veniza this year if he gets the defensive support. The way penguins defend and collapse in-front of the net, Ive not seen Penguins play ever, maybe the stanley cup year, but its amazing.

+13,6 units for the night.
YTD: 93 W, 93 L (+63.7 units)

[Locke]

http://www2.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/
But it said Jones likely, too be honest I should have waited 10 minutes before puck dropped, but I got busy with some other stuff.

ya dailyfaceoff is good. i use that one and leftwinglock. both of em are helpful for fantasy leagues too (if you dabble with that)

i usually only wait till game time on a dog pick where i think the starting goalie is gonna a substantial difference. typically won't take a favourite if i think their goalie is going to be crucial. ie habs yesterday

hope you're having a good saturday with the picks

[jontebond]

ya dailyfaceoff is good. i use that one and leftwinglock. both of em are helpful for fantasy leagues too (if you dabble with that)

i usually only wait till game time on a dog pick where i think the starting goalie is gonna a substantial difference. typically won't take a favourite if i think their goalie is going to be crucial. ie habs yesterday

hope you're having a good saturday with the picks

Yeah plus 13 units thanks to big bang bet on Penguins =)

I didnt log it here where I track my play but I had Penguins -2.5 @ 4.15 (+315) odds for 9 units, so my big plays keeps going in, I'm 50% choosing but I'm playing a lot of AH and Regulation as well, which I think is the way to go, but the selection 50% doesn't seem too good but as long as your on +. 63,7 units so far early on the season, so I'm very happy.

Well it's 3 am in Sweden now, so it's Sunday, but need to watch the Edmonton game as I think it will be very fast and intense game.
Enjoy the rest of the evening.

[jontebond]

Sharks @ Colorado: Over 5.5 (1.5u)
Both teams are bad defensively and have sufficent offense to hit the over.
I think Sharks will come out with the win in tonight's game, but I like the value of Over 5.5 more.
Jones in Net for sharks, however he is 88.9% and GAA 2.89 against Sharks. Both teams are desperate for wins so i should be a open game.

[jontebond]

Lean: Tampa in Regulation, Tampa -1.5, Simple because they've just lost too many in a row for a team with this much fire power. Will see closer to match start if any funny supprises, like yesterday.

[jontebond]

Tampa Bay @ Carolina: Tampa Bay in Regulation (1.5u), Tampa Bay -1.5 (1u)
I think Tampa will come out pushing really hard after the statement Stamkos did in an interview.
When you captain speaks, especially respected guy like Stamkos, they should be fired up for this game.
Backup goalie in for Tampa, but he is good goalie.
Lindholm out for Carolina, he is a great playmaker, he has only scored 1 point on the season, but he is a good player.

[jontebond]

WInnipeg @ Montreal: Over 5.5 (1u)
This game just smells tons of goals. Jets are having fantastic team chemistry, I think they might even get the win here, but playing the over as Montreal at home is one of the better in the league.

[Jones10]

GL tonight bro

[jontebond]

UNbelivable, Carolina scores with 1 second left in the game, making my AH loss.
Lightning up 4 - 1 safe and sound and then it end like this.

[Locke]

nice job today jb! sorry to see that back door cover by the canes. but your assessments on the teams were ace. look forward to seein what ya have this week

[jontebond]

nice job today jb! sorry to see that back door cover by the canes. but your assessments on the teams were ace. look forward to seein what ya have this week

Cheers, yeah, it happens, but 1 second, or less then a second, that is crazy.

[jontebond]

Sharks @ Colorado: Over 5.5 (1.5u)
Tampa Bay in Regulation (1.5u)
Tampa Bay -1.5 (1u)
WInnipeg @ Montreal: Over 5.5 (1u)

Day: +4.4
YTD: 96 W, 94 L (+68.1 units)

[jontebond]

02/11:

Flyers @ Canucks: Canucks in Regulation (3u), Canucks -1.5 (2u), Canucks TT Over 2.5 (No line out, play if >= 1.65)
Here are my reasons for this:

** Injuries Impact:

Flyers: High
Both Bellemere and Couturier is key for successful PK for Flyers. As we have seen without them Flyers are struggling.
Vancouver's PP is good and should be able to score against Flyers. Flyers takes a lot of penalties so either they play carefully, never good or they take penalties both will result in goals.


Again the injury to Couturier has more impact then people think, he is a solid 2 way player that can go against any top line, he is really missed.


Canucks: Medium
Prust and Hamhuis out for Vancouver. Prust have no impact to this team, and I think they play better without him. Hamhuis is a great defender, but they have managed well without him.


** Line Production:


Flyers: Poor
Flyers first line is struggling, I have bet on Flyers that they would start producing but constantly failing. Until they do, Flyers will lose and I will keep fading them. Voraceck is a notorious slow starter. A couple of seasons ago it toke him 11 games to get the first goal. They have now split up the first line, but playing with Laughton will certainly not help Voracecks production.


Canucks: Good
Vancouver is playing well and have production from multiple players and lines. This team is well coached and have a nice balance.


** Power Play - Penalty Kill:

Flyers Power Play Poor
They have failed to score in PP in 4 games, and going against one of the best team PK this shouldn't change.


Flyers Penalty Kill Poor
Flyers is on of the most penalized team in the league. You add having one of the worst PK in the league this is just combo for failure.
Why their penalty kill is soo poor is also related to two key PK players being injuried with Bellemere and Couturier.


Canucks Power Play Great
Power play is on fire. They have scored in 5 game straight. This team should get a fair share of power play, due to Flyers undisciplined style of hockey.


Canucks Penalty Kill Great
Canucks have killed all penalties in 3 straight games. They look really good and have one of the best PK in the league.


**Goalies:


Flyers: Poor
Mason: Against Canucks (3.24 89.8%)
Neuvirth: Against Canucks (3.76 89.8%)


Both goalies for Flyers have poor stats vs Canucks and their current form is bad. Not sure who will be in NET but it doesn't make much of a difference.


Canucks: Poor
Miller: Against Flyers (2.86, 90.7%)
Millers form has been up and down the last 3 games, and he's stats is below average against Flyers. However with the current form that the Flyers, I think he should play OK enough to get the win.

[jontebond]

GL tonight bro

Cheers. You too.

[ThaWoj]

UNbelivable, Carolina scores with 1 second left in the game, making my AH loss.
Lightning up 4 - 1 safe and sound and then it end like this.

I posted in rudes thread but I had $500 on the Puck line basically busting my book and real life bankroll. How is it possible to be ahead so many times in a 5 day span and lose them all? Every PL, ML, and regulation bet I made lost in the last 5 minutes. Tampa yesterday. Ottawa wednesday vs cgy, islanders vs canes and penguins vs buff Thursday. Capitals Friday vs jackets. I had no winning bets in that span including a stl blues Puck line loss Saturday vs Minnesota (up2-0 before eventually winnining 3-2) and a push on nashville -1 at San Jose Wed night.

[jontebond]

I posted in rudes thread but I had $500 on the Puck line basically busting my book and real life bankroll. How is it possible to be ahead so many times in a 5 day span and lose them all? Every PL, ML, and regulation bet I made lost in the last 5 minutes. Tampa yesterday. Ottawa wednesday vs cgy, islanders vs canes and penguins vs buff Thursday. Capitals Friday vs jackets. I had no winning bets in that span including a stl blues Puck line loss Saturday vs Minnesota (up2-0 before eventually winnining 3-2) and a push on nashville -1 at San Jose Wed night.

Yeah yesterday's game was tough loss if you only had the puck line (when they scored 4 -2 I got a bad feeling) but losing it with less then a second left really sucked, if you went all in on that I would feel like shit.

I think a better strategy is to spread out the money a bit, ML, Regular Time, Puckline. Never go all in on a single bet as in any sports anything can happen.

Hope you get back on track.

[jontebond]

Dallas @ Toronto: Dallas in Regulation (3u), Dallas -1.5 (2u), Dallas Over 3.5 TT (1.5u)
Dallas came out with a monster win in last game vs San Jose. This team looks great. They have improved in all areas since last season.
Current goalies are doing a great job, and with a high goal producing team they know they can let pucks in and still win game. This is a big factor for an goalie that they know they have offensive support, even if they let in a soft goal.
This is the opposite of what Toronto have. They can't score goals which will add pressure on the goalie to "Steal" a win for the team. This is a tall order for Reimer or Bernier.


This should be a walk in the park for Dallas. The only way this doesn't hit is if Dallas underestimate and play way below their potential. Missing the playoff last year this teams knows that winning now then later is easier, so I think they should go in full in this game. Western conference is a tougher division as well so this type of game is almost a must for western team to get into the playoff.


Toronto is also one of the team letting in the first goal in most games. As everyone is aware scoring the first goal in hockey is SUPER important and I think the win procentage is almost 65-70%,


Dallas appeared to have learned from their last season mistakes. They play a more simple game, and yet they keep the goal production equally high as last year.


Dallas is also getting goal production from 3rd and 4th line which is a sign of great teams. Any team that wants to fight for the cup needs 4 lines that can score goals.


Goalie:
Lethonen will most likely start in net for Dallas, he had a horrible last game, but has been solid otherwise. He' s stats against Toronto isn't great, but the way Toronto plays offensively he should be able to handle this.
Niemi however has been spectualar against Toronto, 1.67 GAA, with 93.7%.


Reimer will most likely start against Dallas. He only played Dallas 1 time, and was horrible. 4 Goals on 15 shots is pathetic. He's current form is extremely poor.

[jontebond]

Summery 2/11:

Flyers @ Canucks: Canucks in Regulation (3u), Canucks -1.5 (2u), Canucks TT Over 2.5 (No line out, play if >= 1.65)
Dallas @ Toronto: Dallas in Regulation (3u), Dallas -1.5 (2u), Dallas Over 3.5 TT (1.5u)
Canucks ML + Dallas ML Parley: 3u

See full game analysis above.

[Jones10]

I can see one of these dogs getting it done tonight. Bol bro.

[jontebond]

I can see one of these dogs getting it done tonight. Bol bro.

Yeah, if I had to bet on a dog it would be Flyers, but they have screwed me too many time back them up.
They will probably win now when I'm on the other side =)

BOL.

[jontebond]

Great news, Dan Hamhuis (lower body) will be back tonight!

[Jones10]

Yea I can't throw and money of leafs or flyers right now just don't have a good feeling about either of those 2 games. But rooting for ya

[JIBBBY]

Kings are playing great hockey of late, 1st in the division now.... Even odds tonight against the always game Hawks at home.. Going with the Kings for the win tonight as they are playing red hot.. 7 straight wins and accounting after a slow start to begin the season..

I've been riding them the last 3 games and won't stop until they lose.. I like the way Jonathon Quick and the Kings are playing right now simply said..

Thought to share...http://espn.go.com/nhl/team/_/name/la/los-angeles-kings

[jontebond]

Kings are playing great hockey of late, 1st in the division now.... Even odds tonight against the always game Hawks at home.. Going with the Kings for the win tonight as they are playing red hot.. 7 straight wins and accounting after a slow start to begin the season..

I've been riding them the last 3 games and won't stop until they lose.. I like the way Jonathon Quick and the Kings are playing right now simply said..

Thought to share...http://espn.go.com/nhl/team/_/name/la/los-angeles-kings

Agree, Kings is the play here. Better consistency, better offense, better defense, same goalie.
Both Keith and Hossa away from Chicago. Hossa is such a key guy in this team, and he doesn't get enough credit. Almost all team he played for recently have gone or won the Stanley cup. He is really needed. Keith is the main defense guy, he is also a key player to this team.
If Crawford don't steal this then it should hit. I'm staying away from it, but BOL.

[JIBBBY]

Agree, Kings is the play here. Better consistency, better offense, better defense, same goalie.
Both Keith and Hossa away from Chicago. Hossa is such a key guy in this team, and he doesn't get enough credit. Almost all team he played for recently have gone or won the Stanley cup. He is really needed. Keith is the main defense guy, he is also a key player to this team.
If Crawford don't steal this then it should hit. I'm staying away from it, but BOL.

So far so good after a period of play... Kings up a goal already after being down a goal at opening.. This is a good sign coming back and scoring 2 goals in a row....

[Jones10]

Anything cooking today??