[jontebond]

Getzlaf is awful, he doesn't even care. Good choice for captain

[whareouttogetme]

This whole team is a joke. penetrate the Ducks and Red Wings this year

[jontebond]

Really bad night!

[jontebond]

26/10:
Flames @ Islanders: Islanders in Regulation (2u), Islanders -1.5 (1.5u), Islanders TT Over 3.5 (1.5u)
Flames just looks horrible.
Today they have a back to back game against a really in-form Islanders.
Home advantage including a hot Tavares.
Flames will put Ortio in net, and I don't have any confident he will be able to take the avalanche of attack that Islanders will put on him.
Halak has been solid for Islanders and is a real solid keeper with few mistakes (Hopefully not tonight at least)

Coyotes @ Maple Leafs: Coyotes ML (1u), Coyotes in regulation (1u), Coyotes -1.5 (1u), Coyotes Over 2.5 TT (2u)
Not sure why Toronto is favorite in this game. They keep adding players to the injury list and they have no depth to manage this.
Spaling, Gardiner, Has been injuried for awhile (Bozak, Robiadas)
Marincin has played 5 games so far, and is -5.
Arizona came of a win against Ottawa, with a explosion in third period. I think that will give the team motivation and confident to play this game away from home.

[Locke]

finally somebody who sees the flames the way i do. look at their two wins this year; both last minute magic to win in ot. im happy to keep fading calgary if they insist on only trying to win games that way.

similar plays and thinking as you jb. enjoy the games!

[SovietRussia]

Getzlaf is awful, he doesn't even care. Good choice for captain

You're right. I just watched him in OT against the hawks. Terrible.

[jontebond]

Islanders in Regulation (2u)
Islanders -1.5 (1.5u)
Islanders TT Over 3.5 (1.5u)
Coyotes ML (1u)
Coyotes in regulation (1u)
Coyotes -1.5 (1u)
Coyotes Over 2.5 TT (2u) So close a 100% night, The -1.5 should have hit. arizona up 4 - 1, a bit unlucky there but overall a good night, exactly what was needed after the bad previous night.

Last night: 6/7 (+9.5units)

[jontebond]

27/10:
Arizona @ Boston: Boston in Regulation (7u), Boston -1.5 (4u), Boston TT Over 3.5 (5u)

Back to back for arizona. Playing goalies
back-to-back I'm really not a fan of.
Got to think that Boston will take there first home win.
Mike smith has a really poor form currently.
Berleskey will be back in the lineup tonight, playing the third line. This is very good news for Boston (Which are scoring tons of goal, will get a more lethal third line)
Hanzal and Vermette is most likely out for this game.
Long road trip, last game for Arizona, I'm expecting bruins to win by 2 or more goals tonight.

[jontebond]

Boston in Regulation (7u)
Boston -1.5 (4u)
Boston TT Over 3.5 (5u)


Pretty spot on analysis and outcome of the game.


+20.4 units for the night;

YTD: 83 W, 78 L (+44.2 units)

[jontebond]

Leans for 28/10:

Calgary, Pittsburgh, Nashville

[jontebond]

YTD: 83 W, 78 L (+44.2 units)

28/10:
Pittsburgh @ Washington: Pittsburgh ML (1.5u), Pittsburgh -1.5 (1u), Pittsburgh Over 2.5 (2u)
After last game against Nashville, they know that they can defend and get solid performance by Fleury. The only thing missing is finding the net.
It's start getting real bizarre that they can't score goals. I think the OT winner by Kessel will get this team going offensively.


Bennett back for Penguins, which is great. He will most likely play in 4th line!! just show the depth they have with forwards. I like that he teams up with Plotnikov,
it should have great speed with a defensive responsible Cullen in the middle.

Good value on Penguins. Game can go both ways in my opinion. Washington is the strong form team but that will change.



Calgary @ Ottawa: Calgary ML (2u), Calgary in Regulation (1u), Calgary -1.5 (1u), Calgary TT Over 2.5 (2u)
Calgary must start feeling heavy pressure to start winning. I always think that they definitely was a team that overachieved last season, especially if you look at there possession numbers which was really bad (CF%: 49,3, 21st in League, FF%: 45,8. 28th in League). With that type of stats you will never have success in the long run in this League. So why do I think Calgary, mostly because of the value. Here are the keys:
- Odds Value
- Ottawa has some injuries: Lazar, Hoffman, MacArthur. Ottawa is 11th in the league with avg: 2.9, this should drop down to under 2.5.
- Calgary is getting back TJ Brodie most likely tonight. There defensive lineup should be able to play much better.
- Hiller in Net for Calgary and he has been solid vs Ottawa,
- Splitting up the first line with Gaudreau - Monahan - Hudler, to 1st: Colbourne - Monahan - Hudler, 2nd line: Gaudreau - Bennett - Frolik. This gives them two good lines to score goals.
- Raymond should be back in the lineup and he generates tons of speed, and will draw some penalties playing against defenders like: Borowiecki, Method and Cowen.
- Anderson has been trending downwards, 88.8% in the last two games against team that doesn't have proven goalscorers. He has horrible stats vs Calgary last year.
- Ottawas PK is not so good, so I'm hoping Calgary can exploit this, However their PP is not looking great, but they should improve as the season goes along.

[Locke]

really enjoy your write-ups and evaluation of the teams. we've seen eye-to-eye quite a bit lately. tonight we see the teams from the opposite side! i see sens as a team underperforming, whereas you see the flames that way.

im on caps and sens, but i understand the value you find on both of your picks.

good matchups regardless. enjoy the games!

[jontebond]

really enjoy your write-ups and evaluation of the teams. we've seen eye-to-eye quite a bit lately. tonight we see the teams from the opposite side! i see sens as a team underperforming, whereas you see the flames that way.

im on caps and sens, but i understand the value you find on both of your picks.

good matchups regardless. enjoy the games!

Cheers, yeah this is purely value, might go 0 - 7, but if it goes 50 - 50 that will be plus. I'm counting on TT to bale me out in case pens and Calgary don't win it. Penguins are bound to breakout and improve their scoring, Calgary, just like that they start mixing lines and the lines have potential to score goals in my eyes.

BOL, at least one of us will come out plus tonight.

[jontebond]

How bad is Penguins PP, can;t score on 5 - 3, they need to start skating and getting movement. Too much passing, get some dirty goals.

Penguins clearly won the first period, but they simply can't score goals. They need to start hitting goals. But looks like another low scoring penguins TT game unfortunately.

[jontebond]

Penguins has played really solid, but can't score. Washington will get the Win here.
It's crazy, will start going under 2.5 in all penguins games from here on until they prove they can score.
I'm start to wonder if its something todo with Johnson's system.

[jontebond]

Calgary, also same there, they have played real solid, but can't put more pucks behind Anderson.

2 - 1 Ottawa, on 10 shots. I think its pretty clear, Calgary don't have any goalies and can't score. those will generate tons of loses.

[jontebond]

3 goals on 16 shots, Hiller is a absolute joke.

[jontebond]

Hahaha 4 goals on 17 shots, World class hiller! .778 %. How much are they paying you, if it's more then 0 it's too much.
At least calgary scores some goals...

[jontebond]

Penguins! Yes, finally more then 2 goals.

Pittsburgh ML (1.5u)
Pittsburgh -1.5 (1u)
Pittsburgh Over 2.5 (2u)
Calgary ML (2u)
Calgary in Regulation (1u)
Calgary -1.5 (1u)
Calgary TT Over 2.5 (2u)

4-3 (+6 units)

YTD: 87 W, 81 L (+50.2 units)

[Jones10]

Still rolling along i see...

[jontebond]

Still rolling along i see...

Cheers, yeah it's going good. Nice to start seeing some goals for Calgary and Pittsburgh.

Too bad Hiller is like tweek in south park =) I hoped they could win it in OT or SO to make it a better night, but 6 units + is good.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=keDrmiomwa8

Calgary really need to resolve their goalie situation, trade for Allen or do something to get a more reliable first goalie.

Next team to come out I think will be Anaheim, last game against Chicago they were dominating, but ran into a super hot goalie.

[jontebond]

29/10:

Buffalo @ Pittsburgh: Game Over 5.5 (3u)
No lines out yet.

Penguins had a extremely tough game against Washington last night. I think their legs will be dead tired most of this game. If they didn't have back to back game, and Fleury was in Net I would go heavy on this game.
Play Clendening instead of Scuderi is must, not because of performance just Age and recovery time is longer after last night intense games.

However Buffalo is still without a first goalie, and Johnson will unlikely be able to stop Penguins.
Penguins continue to have problems scoring, but last night in 3rd period they looked like it finally open the floodgates.

I think this can continue tonight, but I will go with the Over 5.5 goals, as the tired legs of the penguins will play a big factor. Sloppy defense in front of a backup goalie is never good.

This will also result in Penguins taking more penalties and Buffalo's Power play is very good this year, and they should find the NET.

I'm a big pens fan, if I wasn't I would put money on Buffalo if the juice is right.

[Jones10]

I have the over at 5 right now -132

[jontebond]

Devils @ Flyers: Over 5.0 (2u), Over 5.5 (1.5u)

Power Play:
* Devils PP is hot, and should be able to get a few powerplays in this games, against Flyers which takes a lot of minor penalty minutes. Flyers PK has not been that great the last couple of games so I definitely see some PP goals for Devils.


Philly First Line problems:
Flyers first line need to start producing. Last game they looked like they started to be able to produce, having one of the better possessions of the team (against Buffalo however) and generated chances. Voracek had 6 shots on goal. It's amazing that they have 4 - 2 - 2 with a first line that doesn't produce. There head coach might have something going here.


Goalie Situation
Schneider
I think tonight they will start producing. Schneider doesn't have soo good stats vs Flyers and the home advantage will benefit the flyers.


Mason will start in Net for Flyers. This means Neuvirth is still injuried as he has better numbers vs Devils. In any case Mason has improved after beginning the season horribly. He's poor stats against Devils is worrying.


Injuries:
Bellemare and Couturier injuried for Flyers. This will give room for Lecavalier. Lecavalier will never have the same impact as he's prime time, but he has put up some good offensive numbers vs Devils. He might be able to start fresh, he had a 20 goals season 2 years ago, but he's minus numbers are terrible. Couturier is a defensive forward, so he's presents should be missed, and it adds to the factor I'm choosing over in this game.

[jontebond]

Remind Penguins over 2.5 @ 1.5, it's too low to get on.

[jontebond]

Colorado @ Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay in Regulation (2u), Tampa Bay -1.5 (1u)

* With the amount of penalties that Colorado takes it could backfire against Tampa. Tampa is below average in PP but it's just a matter of time before they explode with all their talent.


* Colorado has big problems in Net. However Berra has played solid minus the last game. For some reason they are going to start with Varlamov. I think this is a mistake.


* Colorado: The team is healthy now with Berrie back in the lineup. Not sure where the problem is, Roy's coaching system or something fundamental. Offensively they have two solid lines. Tampa has solid defense, and should be able to protect.


* Tampa has a couple of home games that I think they really going to focus on winning, having lost the last two games (This was against two of the hottest goalies in the league however).


* The only way Colorado will win this is if Varlamov has super performance, however against a hungry Tampa team at home it will be very difficult.

[Locke]

Penguins! Yes, finally more then 2 goals.

Pittsburgh ML (1.5u)
Pittsburgh -1.5 (1u)
Pittsburgh Over 2.5 (2u)
Calgary ML (2u)
Calgary in Regulation (1u)
Calgary -1.5 (1u)
Calgary TT Over 2.5 (2u)

4-3 (+6 units)

YTD: 87 W, 81 L (+50.2 units)

4-3 and up 6 units? figured that makes you + 2.5 on the day...did i miss something

[Locke]

that sens/flames game was a crazy one. just two teams making lots of defensive mistakes. over was probably the best play for both of us. nice call on pit. they kind of remind me of the kings at the moment. relying on some stellar goaltending and being patient enough that they can win with a defense-first mentality

[jontebond]

that sens/flames game was a crazy one. just two teams making lots of defensive mistakes. over was probably the best play for both of us. nice call on pit. they kind of remind me of the kings at the moment. relying on some stellar goaltending and being patient enough that they can win with a defense-first mentality

Yeah horrible to watch when you have money on a team like Calgary to win =) Anyway like that Flames started to score goals.
Penguins is looking solid, kind of called it early that they would have success at home. Offensively it has improved, chemistry in first and second line. Really like Perron, he is not scoring any points, but he is a real work horse. Fleury have been the best player of penguins, and is one of the best goalies in the league currently.

[jontebond]

Tampa Bay in Regulation (2u)
Tampa Bay -1.5 (1u)
New Jersey Over 5.0 (2u) PUSH
New Jersey Over 5.5 (1.5u)
Buffalo @ Pittsburgh: Game Over 5.5 (3u)

1-3-1: -1 unit.
YTD: 88 W, 84 L (+49.2 units)

[jontebond]

30/10

Flyers @ Sabres: Flyers TT Over 2.5 (3u), Game Over 5.5 (2u), Flyers in Regulation (1.5u), Flyers -1.5 (1u)
Flyers keeps firing the puck on Net, leading the league in Shots.
Against a backup goalie, which is in fact their 3rd goalie in line this most likely would result in goals.
Flyers collapsed in 3rd period, they can't be happy with that. I think they should come out tonight and get some goals.
Buffalo generated lots of offense against Penguins, well at least shots on goals, 51 shots if I'm not mistaking. This including with a dangarous power play could also let to goals.
I think Flyers will win so will play the AH -1.5 and Regulation but I will also back up goals scored. Either it will be 3 - 1 flyers or 4-4 OT win Flyers.
Giroux will get space out there, due to back to back, so I think the first line will finally start putting up multiple points.


Maple Leafs @ Rangers: Rangers in Regulation (2u), Rangers -1.5 (1.5u)
Toronto still have lots of injuries to depth players, they don't have a squad that can handle this.
Rangers is simple just a way better team then Toronto.
Goalie matchup Rangers easy win, having one of the prime goalies in the league vs a very shaky Bernier.
He has 3.29, 89.4% on the road and playing rangers when they have home advantage it can only end one way. Historically Ranger have had a tough time against Toronto but the team looks very different then last meetings.



Blue Jackets @ Capitals: Over 5.5 (2.5u)
Capitals at home can score 6 goals. Getting shot down by Fluery last game you have to figure they will be out to put some goals in net.
Saad is out for Columbus but Johansen is back. Bobrovsky has been decent in last two starts but Capitals is one of the best offenses in the league so I'm expecting them to score a lot.

[jontebond]

Flyers is such a joke, 11 shots 2 periods. This team sucks. Fade them.

[jontebond]

Canucks @ Coyotes: Over 5.5 (3u)
Should see lots of goals. Backup goalie in net for Vancouver and Hamhuis still out.

[jontebond]

Adding another 3 units on Over 5.5

[Jones10]

Keep pulling trough you'll make it out