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Yep we'll that's the NFL for ya...crazy how few pts raider's and jags put up 2nd half....I really put 0 time into my NFL pick s these days as its too unpredictable and lines are tight/ not enough selection of games week to week unlike ncaaf..... Ncaaf I spend atleast 10-15 hrs a week looking at lines reviewing stats...NFL I'll spend 1 hr if that
Thanks!
Just wanted to say Thanks! Been following your thread all season.
tough day of nfl today for sure.. books cleaned up
Hesitant to pull trigger after getting murked today but I'm gonna go ahead and put a half unit on under for tonight...
NFL week 4 addition
Dal/no under 48.5 (-110) risking .55 units to win .5 units
i took under as well.. hard to pass up.. and then it moves to 49 right after lol.. not sure whats up with that
Great job. What's your season record for college?
NCAAF 2015 Total Record:
32-12 (73%) +20.7 units
NFL 2015 Total Thread Record:
13-11 (54%) + .32 units
Thread Total: 45-23 (66%) +21.02 units
Will work on an in-depth breakdown of picks in next week or so when I get some time for further analysis. I like to do every 4-5 weeks to keep record updated and not let build up. i.e. totals/sides/mls/average bet size/average odds/max bet.....etc.etc.etc.
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People who nominated: JTrain
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Originally Posted by JTrain
Thanks fellas.
NCAAF Week 6:
Wisconsin +1 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
To say this team Nebraska team is deflated and emotionally spent would be an understatement. Not only did they lose two games they should have won with BYU and Illinois, They lost a huge 4th qtr comeback to miami in OT. The losses keep racking up and the realization that Mike Riley is at best an average coach is starting to set in. At Oregon State he was barely above 50% in all his tenure and actually (58-63) below .500 in shitty pac 12 conference play. Defense wins games and this Wisconsin team has the much superior defense as they held a very strong iowa team to only 10 points last week. Schobert is a force to be reckoned with and should cause fits for this struggling nebraska offense. Last week they only completed 10 of 31 passes for 105 yards, although armstrong has looked tremendously better this season, he still seems to have timing issues and tries to do too much with his legs when things start to break down and fall apart. That should be the case against this wisconsin defense that knows how to dial up the pressure racking up 7 hurries against iowa, 4 sacks, and 2 forced fumbles. Wisconsin shouldn't have a problem moving the ball against this weak nebraska defense, giving up 8 yards per pass (ranked 101st) and although they ranked 17th in yards per rush attempt at 3.1 ypa. This number is misleading as they have allowed a combined 30 yards on 47 attempts against southern albama and souther miss, but gave up 130+ yards (over 4.25+ ypc) against all their 3 halfway decent opponents. Also they have shown an inability to effect a pass rush again racking up hurries and sacks against their 2 soft opponents, and being virtually non existent against their 3 tough opponents. Defense wins this matchup SU.
Northwestern +7.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Already talked about how much I loved Northwestern this year in week 1, and they continue to have great success being 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS this season. Theyve been winning with their defense and I think this will come down to being a 3-4 point game. Clayton Thorson although inconsistent has not made too many mistakes this season so we should win the turnover battle with ruddock leading the mich offense that has a -2 TO margin on the season compared to NW at +4. And although mich defense appears to be better stats wise being ranked 4th in ypa in rush defense and 1st in yards per pass (northwestern ranked 2nd) it has come against weaker competition (although SOS ranking sites disagree with me, I think theyre overvaluing utah due to oregon win and a injury battered byu) I think this line is also over inflated due to the markets sizes of these two schools. This will be one hell of a defensive battle that Ill sure be watching at 3:30, although ESPN and majority of idiots on these forums for some reason prefer high scoring non existant (pac 12) defensive matchups, DEFENSES WIN GAME, and I sure as shit rather watch a 17-10 hard hitting field position battle where every point counts than a 45-40 tackle-less, mindless, whoever has the ball last/gets a late turnover game winning bullshit-fest game that ESPN loves to overhype.
Michigan State -13.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
MSU continues to befuddle me as although they return much of the same team as last year, theyve been struggling to cover which they did with ease last year (9-4). This year depended on line you got them at theyre (0-5 ATS) (we bought a half pt earlier in season to push in oregon) Theyve been barely winning against weak competition and although the stats are impressive they somehow allow these mediocre teams to keep these games close. Part of it is their defense has struggled to stop teams and it probably has some to do with the departure of Pat Narduzzi. The other part is theyve been content with just slow clock consuming offense running the ball on teams ranking 111th in pass play %. Anyways I suspect this team begins to finally dial up the offense and defense as they prepare to take on mich next week and take on a severely depleted Rutgers team. Rutgers is ranked 110th against the run and MSU's effectiveness in the run game on offense has been questionable at times this season but really picked up last week against purdue running for 267 yards. Rutgers is much worse than their stats appear as they have one of the weakest SOSs possible. Also MSU sports #7 ranked Turnover margin while careless rutgers ranks #124 in to margin (-2.3 per game)
Smut , where you someone else on this forum before ? Your write ups look real familiar ...... if not no disrespect meant ... I always check your picks vs mine ,that means I respect the work you doThank you
Following your picks as usual mate! Keep up the good work. Let's make it 3 great weeks in a row!
Smut , where you someone else on this forum before ? Your write ups look real familiar ...... if not no disrespect meant ... I always check your picks vs mine ,that means I respect the work you do
Thats weird no always been Smutbucket, used to have the Doors jim morrison avatar for a while but recently changed to the DapperDan.... been a member here forever posting regular picks for last 3 years with season long threads in mlb and football....used to dabble in nhl but just wasnt turning the profits like I can in football and baseball....in years past I would just post my picks and a few weeks out of the year make writeups.....now I feel like the writeups refine my picks and reasoning....often times I like a team/side and I start the writeups and then I start noticing a strong edge on the other side/or something off putting so I back off.....so....Its been helpful to me and If anyone has some input on games based on writeups you can chime in......if you figure out the other username your thinking of let me know hes probably a pretty cool dude if he sounds like me.....ha ....
Wisc up to +2
Couldnt agree more about the Michigan game being more interesting to watch than the games with 100 points in them.
GL this weekend!
NCAAF Week 6 Additions:
2 Team 6 pt Teaser. Illinois +17 and LSU -12.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Iowas team isnt built to beat teams by 20+ points. Im sure Ferentz is aware of how illinois had a late comeback and beat nebraska last week due to clock mismanagement, look for a clock milking type game out of iowa especially when they get into the 2nd half as they just came off a hard fought battle in whisky and have to go to Northwestern next week. (most likely have my money on iowa on that game)
Do I need to say much about LSU/Scar? I started off high on south carolina but this is a completely different team than the one that started the season, with a bunch of injuries including starting qb connor mitch, this should be an easy win for LSU. This 2nd ranked yards per rush offense in LSU (7.1 ypc) should run all over this 95th ranked (4.9 opponent ypc) defense. Even So carolina backup is banged up, nunez, and orth is possibly getting the start. Regardless either one will struggle to move the ball against this LSU defense that is going a little under the radar as all the hype is on Fournette but they are quietly going 25th in opp yards per rush at 3.3 and 14th in yards per pass at 5.6. Even brandon wildes is banged up. so we can expect an easy win as LSU pounds the ball down so cars throat.
West Virginia Team Total Under 33 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
This Oklahoma state defense has really stepped up their game so far this season although rather untested they have achieved the highest sack % in the league at 14.93%. This should be a problem for this WVU offense that allowed 7 sacks last week against OU and is currently ranked 121st in the league allowing 11.21% sack %. Although WVU is a fast paced offense, theyve been sticking to the run more often than usual this season running the ball 59% of the time, which should help eat up the clock. WVU is also one of the most heavily penalized teams, averaging 8.7 penalties per game (111th) for 90.7 yards (123rd). Holgorsen was also the OC under Gundy in 2010 so he should be familiar with his playcalling. Both these teams havent really faced any competition so this should be a competitive low scoring affair and I am more comfortable with the TT under than anything else.
I really like Wisconsin and Northwestern this week. Glad to see you are on them as well! Cheers bol
dammit I want to bet miami so bad again....not too much night action.....fsu been struggling again against their cupcake schedule.....fml.....i might have to take atleast the Team total over 21 for um....seems awfully low and linesmakers are overrating this fsu defense whos most difficult opponent thus far has been wake forest hence the above average defensive stats (not even as stellar as they should be)....
....working on a couple other games but lot of them will come down to late injury reports and weather so I dont think Im gonna add any more picks till sat morning.....lines have been relatively stagnant this week too....
California +7.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Last week was first week I watched CAL in matchup vs WSU. And I have to eat some of my words on Goff cuz he looked damn good in that game, But its always tough to tell against these soft PAC 12 defenses. This UTAH defense hasnt been as strong as years past and isnt as impressive as their points per game suggest thus far this year as they've been giving up a lot of yards 373 per game ranked (47th) especially so against the pass as they have a bunch of new cb's this year who've given up 6.7 yards per pass (ranked 50th) which of course is Cal;s strong suit. Cals defense is also improved as they have a respectable sack % at 10.26% ranked 7th and improved run defense that is actually allowing less yards per rush than utahs. This is just too many points for this matchup as utahs conservative run first approach vs cals pass happy offense. Even if CAL goes down early and makes a few mistakes they can easily catch a back door with this high number. Its a bit of an odd number but I guess the market is holding utah on a pedestal after beating an over hyped oregon team would be my only explanation.
really like this one as well bro. spread and ml as i think cal gonna pull the upset and knock utes right out of the playoff talk where they belong (not in the discussion).
hell to the ya....was looking at all my dogs and am gonna go with this on ml too! lets make some monnneyyy
NCAAF Week 6 Card:
Wisconsin +1 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Northwestern +7.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Michigan State -13.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
2 Team 6 pt Teaser. Illinois +17 and LSU -12.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
West Virginia Team Total Under 33 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
California +7.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
California ML (+250) Risking .5 units to win 1.25 units
i thought purdue and indy both had decent shot of pulling upsets as well, didnt know how you felt bout either of those? wasnt real sure on the NW/mich gm, the points def seems like the way to go considering how much of a premium points outta be there, not sure if they go to the big house and win though? gl my friend (not that you need it, you killing it!) .
Purdue i dont really know too much about, just one of those teams I dont really pay attention to.....some "red flags" in that game would be the fact that minn covered their big nationally televised opener then have gone 0-4 ats since with a struggling offense....with college football parity I tend to stay away from betting against teams with situations like that, also how the line has moved from a pickem to -3 is a little unusual...although I started off high on the minnesota train, its been clear they havent been executing on offense, and have now been hit severely by the injury bug.... (11 just in the last week) so Its tough to judge how all these 2nd stringers/lack of depth will perform.....
Indiana ...ya... depended on sudfield playing and PSUs two starting RBs out I see PSU offense struggling like usual....this is certainly a good spot to bet against PSU as they are coming off a few big wins but against much inferior competition....still have been struggling to put up points too against them....Im gonna add PSU team total under 30.5 to my card....only for a half unit though....the fact its so high is off-putting to me so Im being a little cautious....Indiana defense is bad by the numbers but they were so too last year and still held PSU to 13 points (also recorded 5 sacks in that game) so, ....
As for NW/Mich Ya Im scared a little of harbuaghs stuff, been watching them the last few weeks and theyve had some really nice drawn up plays, but can ruddock execute? I think Im just content with the points in that one...
In a rush got a bunch of shit to do and need to be home by 12....adding these two....
NCAAF Week 6 Additions:
Iowa State +11.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Penn State Team Total Under 30.5 (-115) Risking .58 units to win .5 units
Northwestern is up to +10 what happened?
never know these days....i tend to ignore line movement except in the aspect of predicting which direction it would pregame in order to get the best number possible.....heavy movement can mean nothing or something theres no way of deciphering it so its pointless to try to think it means sharp money because often times Ive seen heavy line movement on the square side just as much as the sharp side.....just a tool for the bookies to creat confusion....and entice action
wisconsin moved all the way to -3 so atleast we got the best number on that one
Fair enough.. Yes line movement can mean something or nothing depending on how u look at it haha.. Wiscy covered and nw got smoked haha but oh well
NCAAF Week 6
Wisconsin +1 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units WIN +1 units
Northwestern +7.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units LOSS -1.1 units
Michigan State -13.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units LOSS -1.2 units
2 Team 6 pt Teaser. Illinois +17 and LSU -12.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units WIN +1 units
West Virginia Team Total Under 33 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units WIN +1 units
California +7.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units WIN +1 unit
California ML (+250) Risking .5 units to win 1.25 units LOSS -.5 units
Iowa State +11.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units LOSS -1.1 units
Penn State Team Total Under 30.5 (-115) Risking .58 units to win .5 units WIN +.5 units
5-4 +.6 units
NFL Week 5
Steelers +4 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Bills -1.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
2 Team 6 pt Teaser. Redskins +15 and Jaguards +9 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
man we should have cashed cal ml. i guess outta be happy we covered with that vclown throwing 5 picks but hell he just doesnt make that last moronic throw and we hit the ml as well.
nice job staying in the positive this week smut, i thought it was a tough week so anything plus to be commended..
hate to say it but disagree with both your nfl straight bets. i think wisenhunt off a bye will exploit a very exploitable bills pass d and tyron will make a few costly turnovers as they gonna have to depend on him down to bunch of scrubs playing rb.
no clue what makes you wanna back vick garbage ass in a game rivers will carve up steelers secondary and vick will have to keep up?
Big Reason for PITT is I love when I have huge differential mismatches in the "2nd level rank" and "Open Field Rank" on footballoutsiders. Bell and brown should have a field day against this SD defensive line that is ranked 31st in 2nd level rank and 28th in Open Field rank.
NFL week 5 addition
Browns +6.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
NCCAF Week 7:
Missouri +16 (-110) Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
This is just too many points for this chubb less uga offense to cover. Missouri offense sputtered last week as expected though as they faced probably one of the best d-lines in the nation playing UFs 10th ranked sack % at 9.57%, UF was constantly able to put pressure on lock throwing the offense all out of sync. This week will be a much easier load on the freshman as he'll be playing Georgias 86th ranked defense in sack % at 4.79%, which has only had 3 sacks in the last 4 games. Missouri's Defense, that is averaging almost 10 TFL per game, will once again bring out the true colors of Greyson Lambert whose offense should struggle against this top tier defense. Although looking at the matchup stats from both these teams season to date, it would appear this should be a blowout in UGAs favor (hence the line) but both these teams are dynamically different then they were earlier in the season as UGA lost its best player, Chubb, and Missouri finally dumped off the shitbag Mauk, and just recently got back their top RB Hansbrough too. Love this bet and maybe even tempted to take the ML once the number is released.
Iowa -1 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
I think Iowa just has the more complete team. Their body of work thus far this season is better as theyve played and won much more competitive games than NW. Most of NW's opponents they beat were weak teams hiding under the ruse of being a top team (like stanford and duke) and they won the games with their defense/special teams as their offense continues to struggle under freshman QB Clayton Thorson. Beathard impresses me more and more every game I watch him and he will help lead this team to victory. In the end the freshman QB will make a mistake or two probably at the hands of desmond king, and beathard will come thru in the clutch to win a close game. Cant wait for this matchup as I have been following both teams closely throughout the season.
NFL Week 5: 3-1 +1.9 units
The NFL grind continues.....
NCAAF Week 7 Addition
Michigan/Mich State Over 40.5 (-110) Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
Shit I think both teams will score 30 points. Michigans offense has been outstanding when it needs to be and the playcalling has been superb. michigan state defense has been a joke since narduzzi left. Literally blown coverages all day long keeping these shitty teams competitive with them, reminds me of a pac 12 defense. Michigan states experienced offense has been efficient and faced many tough defenses, cook is no stranger to adversity and will be able to move the ball against this strong michigan defense who will have its toughest challenge of the year so far. Although michs PASS Def is ranked #1 in yards per pass attempt, its come against some questionable passing offenses, (yards per pass rankings) utah ranked 84th, oregon state ranked 121, unlv ranked 88th, byu ranked 63rd, maryland ranked 120th, and northwestern 117th. Connor Cook wont be rattled by this tough D, and I think hes easily in top 5 college QBs (beathard #1) this year. Wanted to take MSU +points but I feel like this is a surefire easy bet on this game, and it will be enjoyable to watch especially when were covering this low number in the 3rd qtr.
Can't agree with ya more. MSU has fire power Mich. hasn't seen. These are the same kids that couldn't stop a cold last year playing on the defensive side of the ball. I feel Michigans' real improvements have come on the offensive side of the ball. The defensive improvements are evident, but not all is good on that side of the ball. Exposure comes this week. The absense of Nards is also evident. MSU's D have not played as a unit once. They can't wave wands in college and the problem is solved. It exist-it persist. Michigan can put up points and will have three TD's and maybe a FG or 2. MSU will hit the 30's. Stron lean.
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