[Vaughany]

Does Weidman hold value at -340?

He should win for sure, I don't think there is value in -340 but then I don't bet on anbody at worse than -225. You could of got him at -225 a week ago.

[kmdubya]

Stout is 3-3 in his last 6, but most people thought he lost to Paul Taylor and Matt Wiman, that would put him at 1-5. Yet i still feel like he'll beat Edwards

Really? I'm a big fan of Stout, but I think Edwards takes this. He is much quicker and will try to take Stout to the ground. Stout is a great striker, but his fight with Stephens showed his a little slower now than most. My money is on quick strikes from Edwards, followed by takedowns and a decision.

I just can't see Stout being quick enough to catch him and knock Edwards out (or out point him in a 3 round striking dual).

[kmdubya]

He should win for sure, I don't think there is value in -340 but then I don't bet on anbody at worse than -225. You could of got him at -225 a week ago.

Weidman is a great wrestler, but cardio is questionable. Agreed that he's no sure thing and no value at -340.

[Poppa Catfish]

Weidman is a great wrestler, but cardio is questionable. Agreed that he's no sure thing and no value at -340.

-340 is a beating! No way can I touch this line now, thats more like a Beerbohm vs Aoki line

[Beelzebubzy]

He should win for sure, I don't think there is value in -340 but then I don't bet on anbody at worse than -225. You could of got him at -225 a week ago.

I grabbed him at -250

[Vaughany]

Pre-lims will be on youtube...

[xelance]

on youtube?? wtf? did they end their partnership with facebook or what?

[xelance]

I guess not...

Sticking with recent tradition, all bouts from Saturday's UFC 131 event will air or stream in some form.

While the main card is slated for pay-per-view and two preliminary-card bouts air on a Spike TV "UFC Prelims" special, the remaining bouts now will be part of a free Facebook stream.

Facebook will stream five of the event's 12 fights.

UFC 131 takes place at Rogers Arena in Vancouver. Heavyweights Junior Dos Santos and Shane Carwin meet in the PPV headliner.

The bouts now scheduled for Facebook include light heavyweights Krzysztof Soszynski (25-11-1 MMA, 5-2 UFC) vs. Mike Massenzio (12-4 MMA, 1-2 UFC), middleweights Nick Ring (11-0 MMA, 1-0 UFC) vs. James Head (7-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC), featherweights Dustin Poirier (9-1 MMA, 1-0 UFC) vs. Jason Young (8-3 MMA, 0-0 UFC), heavyweights Joey Beltran (12-5 MMA, 2-2 UFC) vs. Aaron Rosa (16-3 MMA, 0-0 UFC), and featherweights Darren Elkins (12-2 MMA, 1-1 UFC) vs. Michihiro Omigawa (12-9-1 MMA, 0-3 UFC).

The Facebook stream is expected to kick off at 6 p.m. ET (3 p.m. PT). Spike TV follows at 8 p.m. ET, and the PPV broadcast kicks off at 9 p.m. ET.

So youtube is getting in on the action now too, wow.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Agree with Sir and Vaughany regarding a Carwin hedge of KOTN if anyone is gonna hedge Carwin in any capacity.

IF Carwin wins, gotta believe that's the mechanism of victory, and given his stepping in at late notice, you know Dana would reward him nicely if he does put JDS to sleep. Save for some crazy highlight reel KO in any of the other fights, Carwin gets the KOTN if he puts JDS out.

[bogbat]

I think hedging with KO of the night could back fire kind of like it did last event with Brian stann being awarded fight of the night instead. Safer to hedge with Carwin via KO or divide funds between car win via KO and KO of the night.

[sirchadwick1]

Yeah, like I mentioned... KOTN on Carwin could definitely kill your night if for some reason Shane TKO's JDS instead. We tend to see these fights stopped early after flurries (hopefully not in this one though since it's so highly anticipated). And it obviously has to be a legit KO to get the award. So yup, Carwin via (T)KO is the safest hedge to roll with.

[Vaughany]

Yeah, like I mentioned... KOTN on Carwin could definitely kill your night if for some reason Shane TKO's JDS instead. We tend to see these fights stopped early after flurries (hopefully not in this one though since it's so highly anticipated). And it obviously has to be a legit KO to get the award. So yup, Carwin via (T)KO is the safest hedge to roll with.

Yeah Carwin could finish with GnP like he almost did against Brock, this type of finish doesn't automatically mean he'll get KO of the Night

[rocky mattioli]

this is why you should hedge with carwin in some manner...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G5Efb5VPPBU

look at dos santos` hands...this has become his signature shot...and it`s gonna bite him on the ass at some point...shocked that somebody hasn`t made some adjustments...look where his left hand is...right down by his waist...

if werdum was committing to that right hand like carwin does,this fight would have ended differently....werdum`s right came up just short but would have landed a split second earlier...

watch at about the 38/39 second mark..http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vWkrP1JQbHM



..that`s his signature shot...he`s not shy about throwing it......very dangerous..very straight....and the perfect counter to that uppercut..gets there quicker if you aren`t backing away.......travels the shorter distance...

if he throws it while dos santos is throwing that uppercut,it`s goodnight sweet prince...

something tells me that`s exactly what carwin will be trying to do....

now,i like dos santos feet....he has excellent movement while carwin is a plodder that needs to set and punch....if he gives carwin angles and makes him continually reset he should be too quick....


but i`d be verrrry careful with that long uppercut as a lead...

[kmdubya]

Some predictions for UFC 131. Overall I think this is going to be a great card (and lots of underdog victories).

Main Event:
265 lbs.: Junior Dos Santos vs. Shane Carwin - Even with the long layoff, I think Carwin is an even better fighter than he was before. He's got wrestling to beat Dos Santos, he's got more power in his hands to KO Dos Santos, and those mitts of his are the size of toilet seats. Dos Santos has speed and boxing, but I don't think it's enough.

Main Card (Pay-per-view):
265 lbs.: Jon Olav Einemo vs. Dave Herman - Both fighters are a total guess as to what we'll see from them. I'm betting that it's harder to break old habits, so I see Herman losing steam and Einemo getting a sub. Maybe I'll give Herman a call Fri night to see if he wants to grab a few beers.
155 lbs.: Donald Cerrone vs. Vagner Rocha - Rocha's only threat is submission, and Cerrone has good sub defence. I just don't see any way Rocha takes this one away from Cerrone. I'm sure he's smart enough to keep it standing.
185 lbs.: Demian Maia vs. Mark Munoz - Munoz has been on a good run, but no one I'd consider a huge threat at 185. Munoz has good power in his hands, but if Maia can take Anderson Silva punches for 5 rounds, I'm not too worried. Munoz other strength is wrestling, and I know Maia would LOVE to see him try and use it.
145 lbs.: Kenny Florian vs. Diego Nunes - Kenflo's weakness is strong wrestlers, which Nunes is not. Reach, size, and experience all point to a Florian victory (enroute to choking in another title shot).

Preliminary Card (Spike TV)
155 lbs.: Yves Edwards vs. Sam Stout - For two guys who have diminished over time, I think Stout is a little worse for the wear. I'm only taking Edwards because he has a stronger ground game and is faster.
185 lbs.: Jesse Bongfeldt vs. Chris Weidman - Pretty impressive in his debut (which was also taken on short notice). I just think Weidman's wrestling (which will be the safe gameplan on a short notice fight again) will suffocate Bongfeldt. Also is it coincidence a guy with "Bong" in his name will be fighting in Vancouver?

Preliminary Card (May not be broadcast):
205 lbs.: Mike Massenzio vs. Krzysztof Soszynski - K-sos is bigger, stronger, and has fought better talent than Massenzio has. If I had to pick one, this fight has Soszynski "Money in the Bank" all over it.
265 lbs.: Joey Beltran vs. Aaron Rosa - Beltran is a guy who no matter how beat up he is, will keep pushing forward looking for the finish. He's fought (and lost) to much better talent than Rosa. Rosa jsut really doesn't have any tools that are a huge threat.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Krzysztof Soszynski even a bigger fav against Mike Massenzio

Krzysztof Soszynski -500
Mike Massenzio +300

[LayingThe$Down]

Carwin
Munoz
Stout

Not much opinion on the others.

My only real wager is Stout, and I probably put more on him than I should have, but feel really good.

Just my 2 cents.

[Educ8d Degener8]

I'm curious to see how KFlo is gonna appear at the weigh-ins...

http://mmajunkie.com/news/23938/ufc-...e-toughest.mma

[Educ8d Degener8]

I was expecting KS to have a size advantage over Massenzio...

[rocky mattioli]

I was expecting KS to have a size advantage over Massenzio...

he came in at 201...but i remembered him as sort of angular...he looked powerful today.....

at around +300,i might take a flyer(still,as good a grappler as he is,i still can`t get over him handling stann for 2 rounds and then getting subbed)........

[NunyaBidness]

I was expecting KS to have a size advantage over Massenzio...

From that picture he doesn't, but he's wider with more muscle mass, particularly in the torso.

[Educ8d Degener8]

the 145 Kflo...

[Educ8d Degener8]

JDS looking a little softer than usual? Had it muted at work, so didn't get the poundage he came in at...




And the side by side...

[Vaughany]

the 145 Kflo...

[Educ8d Degener8]

UFC 131 plays...

0.13u plays

Yves / Massenzio / Einemo-Herman goes distance (33:1)
Cerrone / Krysztof / Munoz-Maia not distance / Bongfeldt-Weidman distance (7:1)
Nunes-Florian FOTN (+625)
Stout-Yves FOTN (+575)
Rocha sub of the night (+1700)

0.25u plays

Weidman by decision (+160)
Cerrone / Weidman / Kyrzstof (1:1)

0.50u plays

Cerrone by TKO/KO (+388)
Einemo (+160)
Nunes (+235)
Cerrone / Santos inside distance (1.5:1)


GL all

[FightFightFight]

For a card that I find pretty hard, I went a little nutty. As usual.
Rosa-Beltran over 2.5 .9u/to win .75u Rosa has size, and will surely try to use it, and Beltran aint all dat.
Massenzio .5u/1.6u
Weidman dec 1u/2.6u, SOTN .5u/10u, over 2 1u/2.5u
Edwards dec 2.5u/8u, Stout dec 2.5u/5.75u Nuff said.
Cerrone KO 1.5u/10u, dec .5u/1.2u
Munoz KO 1.5u/5u, wont go dist .5u/.7u
Florian KO .75u/7.5u
JDS KO 2.5u/3.1u, under 1.5 .9u/.75u

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

great night, only loss was a parlay with Omigawa on it

[Kaladarus]

Was having an okay night until the Dos Santos win. It ended being a pretty good night. Hopefully everyone did well. Also I'm now very interested to see the Santos/Velasquez line. I'm sure it will be adjusted.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

great interview, gets intense at the 6:35 mark

[bogbat]

Dana White is great for this sport, not only does he put on free fights but now we're getting the prelims which often has fights that are better than the main card.

[Vaughany]

Vancouver Commission's response to Elkins/Omigawa...

the Vancouver Athletic Commission is speaking out about judging in the Elkins-Omigawa bout to point out that Elkins could have reasonably taken the fight. In a statement to SB Nation, the commission's executive director explains:

"In the first round, Elkins backed Omigawa up with punches the entire round. He controlled the center of the cage. He was throwing a lot more shots, and landing more -- and in combination. If there is any controversy as to the outcome of the fight it must be because of the second round. That was a very challenging round to score. An argument can be made in favour of either fighter. Elkins landed more punches. At one point, when Omigawa came forward, he was stopped dead in his tracks by Elkins' combination punches, and at another point he was slightly buckled. Due to Omigawa's unusual stance and balance, it was difficult to tell exactly whether he was rocked by some of these shots. However, you could see Omigawa's leg bend, and the control shift to Elkins as he landed the combo, stopping Omigawa in his tracks, taking the center of the cage, and going on the attack again. These sequences, as well as the total effective strikes landed, could reasonably warrant awarding the round to Elkins. Elkins didn't land many more than Omigawa, but he did land more. As to the blood - it represents something, but a cut can be caused by a glancing blow and some fighters just cut more readily than others.

By this description of the fight, it appears that forward movement is the most important thing in scoring a round. Punches landed are a side note. How would they score a fighter like Dominick Cruz, who constantly baits his opponents into coming forward with his non-stop movement? Chan Sung Jung, A.K.A. the Korean Zombie, should try to schedule every fight in Vancouver, as he's known to continually come forward during his bouts.
At UFC 131, the judges had monitors, a new procedure that is expected to become the norm for UFC events. In the past, judges had to rely on watching the live action in the cage -- which could be difficult when the fight hits the ground -- or look at the video boards hanging in the arena. The fact that monitors didn't quell judging controversies frustrated White.

"Something has to be done about the judging," White said. "It has to. It's so bad, and not only does it affect people's lives, it ruins everything for people that are watching. You watch it, and you're like, 'What? What — 30-27? What are you watching?'

But monitors are a short term solution, when what is needed is more education, training and experience, but that takes time. Meanwhile, high-stakes fights still will come down to the very human judges, and the mistakes and subjectivity that comes part and parcel with their humanity.

[sirchadwick1]

For a card that I find pretty hard, I went a little nutty. As usual.
Rosa-Beltran over 2.5 .9u/to win .75u Rosa has size, and will surely try to use it, and Beltran aint all dat.
Massenzio .5u/1.6u
Weidman dec 1u/2.6u, SOTN .5u/10u, over 2 1u/2.5u
Edwards dec 2.5u/8u, Stout dec 2.5u/5.75u Nuff said.
Cerrone KO 1.5u/10u, dec .5u/1.2u
Munoz KO 1.5u/5u, wont go dist .5u/.7u
Florian KO .75u/7.5u
JDS KO 2.5u/3.1u, under 1.5 .9u/.75u

Rough night... hang in there and focus more on a winner instead of props to get back on top.

[bogbat]

Vancouver Commission's response to Elkins/Omigawa... the Vancouver Athletic Commission is speaking out about judging in the Elkins-Omigawa bout to point out that Elkins could have reasonably taken the fight. In a statement to SB Nation, the commission's executive director explains:

"In the first round, Elkins backed Omigawa up with punches the entire round. He controlled the center of the cage. He was throwing a lot more shots, and landing more -- and in combination. If there is any controversy as to the outcome of the fight it must be because of the second round. That was a very challenging round to score. An argument can be made in favour of either fighter. Elkins landed more punches. At one point, when Omigawa came forward, he was stopped dead in his tracks by Elkins' combination punches, and at another point he was slightly buckled. Due to Omigawa's unusual stance and balance, it was difficult to tell exactly whether he was rocked by some of these shots. However, you could see Omigawa's leg bend, and the control shift to Elkins as he landed the combo, stopping Omigawa in his tracks, taking the center of the cage, and going on the attack again. These sequences, as well as the total effective strikes landed, could reasonably warrant awarding the round to Elkins. Elkins didn't land many more than Omigawa, but he did land more. As to the blood - it represents something, but a cut can be caused by a glancing blow and some fighters just cut more readily than others.

By this description of the fight, it appears that forward movement is the most important thing in scoring a round. Punches landed are a side note. How would they score a fighter like Dominick Cruz, who constantly baits his opponents into coming forward with his non-stop movement? Chan Sung Jung, A.K.A. the Korean Zombie, should try to schedule every fight in Vancouver, as he's known to continually come forward during his bouts. At UFC 131, the judges had monitors, a new procedure that is expected to become the norm for UFC events. In the past, judges had to rely on watching the live action in the cage -- which could be difficult when the fight hits the ground -- or look at the video boards hanging in the arena. The fact that monitors didn't quell judging controversies frustrated White.

"Something has to be done about the judging," White said. "It has to. It's so bad, and not only does it affect people's lives, it ruins everything for people that are watching. You watch it, and you're like, 'What? What — 30-27? What are you watching?'

But monitors are a short term solution, when what is needed is more education, training and experience, but that takes time. Meanwhile, high-stakes fights still will come down to the very human judges, and the mistakes and subjectivity that comes part and parcel with their humanity.

They would have been better off keeping their mouth's shut, they are just making themselves look worse trying to justify that nonsense. Although, some people on these forums seem to judge by the same criteria

[brooks85]

haha i just read that and came here to say the same thing.

longer response from the commission here-
http://www.5thround.com/78821/ufc-13...s-controversy/


This is the part that cracks me up tho, aside from Mr. Tweedale's breakdown of the fight.


"That’s a round about which reasonable people can disagree. Close rounds like Round 2 of Omigawa vs Elkins serve as useful examples for discussion, to assist in refining and evolving the community’s understanding of the scoring criteria, generally. And that is a good thing for the sport.”

Talk about passive aggressive, the 'community' does not need its understanding to evolve. The commission is the issue.

The reality is Elkins threw a lot of punches and a lot of them didn't find their mark because of Omigawa's crazy movement. This is similar to Edgar/Penn 1 fight or Sanchez/Kampmann. Don't worry about landing, just move forward and throw punches and you will win even though you are constantly be countered.

[Vaughany]

haha i just read that and came here to say the same thing.

longer response from the commission here-
http://www.5thround.com/78821/ufc-13...s-controversy/


This is the part that cracks me up tho, aside from Mr. Tweedale's breakdown of the fight.


"That’s a round about which reasonable people can disagree. Close rounds like Round 2 of Omigawa vs Elkins serve as useful examples for discussion, to assist in refining and evolving the community’s understanding of the scoring criteria, generally. And that is a good thing for the sport.”

Talk about passive aggressive, the 'community' does not need its understanding to evolve. The commission is the issue.

The reality is Elkins threw a lot of punches and a lot of them didn't find their mark because of Omigawa's crazy movement. This is similar to Edgar/Penn 1 fight or Sanchez/Kampmann. Don't worry about landing, just move forward and throw punches and you will win even though you are constantly be countered.

Ye otherwise known as the "Bad Boy Garcia phenomenon"!

[FightFightFight]

Rough night... hang in there and focus more on a winner instead of props to get back on top.

Thanks, actually wasnt that bad. Down 1u. Had a couple minor arbs, and the Weidman sub of the night bet pulled me back out of the hole. I generally dont have such prop heavy nights, but the numbers were screaming at me. The stout KO cost me, but the distance bet was at -130. Had to unload. Florian KO 1000, Cerrone KO +700, etc. Could have arbed, but dont believe in doing that unless I feel value has shifted to the other side. At +155 for Stout-Yves inside, couldnt do it. Actually missed the over on Beltran-Rosa by 3sec. Hindsight...