1. 03-24-11 11:13 AM #141
    Ladle
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    Quote Originally Posted by Educ8d Degener8 View Post
    I think Leroy is on the card for the simple matter of alot of people wanting to see his face smashed in. Me thinks Mackens weathers some unorthodox Leroy-fu and takes this to the mat stat.

    Also -- anyone out there considering a straddle of Mr. Wonderful (-330) w/ Nog inside the distance (+484)? Granted, any time it goes to the cards, it can get dicey, but... I'm looking for a Davis decision via wrestling top control / Davis finish (less likely) / Nog finish. Can't see Nog taking a decision here as I don't think his boxing & TDD is enough to keep this thing standing to earn an "outpointing" decision, and can't see him taking a decision by spending the good majority of this fight on his back -- even if he is active from guard...
    I like your thought process but it's risky for the exact reason that you mentioned. Hypothetically, what if the fight unfolds similarly to the Brilz fight? Granted, that was a fight that Rogerio deserved to lose, but he still got the victory.
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  2. 03-24-11 11:15 AM #142
    bjpenn85
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    What about Mcorcle and Morecraft not going the distance 1.50 / -200 @ paddypower.com?
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  3. 03-24-11 11:30 AM #143
    Ladle
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjpenn85 View Post
    What about Mcorcle and Morecraft not going the distance 1.50 / -200 @ paddypower.com?
    Those odds indicate the fight doesn't go the distance 67% of the time. If you believe that the fight doesn't go the distance at least 77% of the time, then it's a good bet. In my opinion, it's just about worthy of a play.
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  4. 03-24-11 11:49 AM #144
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ladle View Post
    Those odds indicate the fight doesn't go the distance 67% of the time. If you believe that the fight doesn't go the distance at least 77% of the time, then it's a good bet. In my opinion, it's just about worthy of a play.
    Yeah I cap it not going the distance about 75% of time so will be making a play on this later as long as odds dont worsen...also like Morecraft in Rnd 1 at +350 or Morecraft by TKO/KO at +250.
    Last edited by Vaughany; 03-24-11 at 11:55 AM.
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  5. 03-24-11 12:05 PM #145
    bjpenn85
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    where do you get these numbers, 67% 75%?
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  6. 03-24-11 12:21 PM #146
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjpenn85 View Post
    where do you get these numbers, 67% 75%?
    Out of our asses!
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  7. 03-24-11 12:39 PM #147
    sideloaded
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    Out of our asses!
    lol, you get it from the odds. google it.
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  8. 03-24-11 12:49 PM #148
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by sideloaded View Post
    lol, you get it from the odds. google it.
    ha In terms of converting odds in to percentages I use this: http://sportility.net/oddsconverter/

    But in terms of me estimating how many times a certain outcome will occur as a percentage...that is taken from my ass pretty much!
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  9. 03-24-11 01:19 PM #149
    Ladle
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    Out of our asses!


    But yes, Vaughany is correct. I just used an odds converter to work out how the odds translated to a percentage. Here's my personal favourite: http://www.onlinegambling.com/sports...alculators.htm
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  10. 03-24-11 01:21 PM #150
    NickTheGrip
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    You have a knowledgeable ass, sir.
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  11. 03-24-11 02:03 PM #151
    Vaughany
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    Morecraft/McCorkle, Hathaway/McCray, and Figueroa/McDonald all on facebook.
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  12. 03-24-11 02:16 PM #152
    sirchadwick1
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    Sweet facebook lineup. I just hate how the streams are unreliable. Sometimes it's slow or choppy... other times I maximize and it doesn't run in HD. I do have the latest version of Silverlight, but have noticed this on multiple systems. Can't really complain b/c it's free though.
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  13. 03-24-11 02:37 PM #153
    Ladle
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    Quote Originally Posted by sirchadwick1 View Post
    Sweet facebook lineup. I just hate how the streams are unreliable. Sometimes it's slow or choppy... other times I maximize and it doesn't run in HD. I do have the latest version of Silverlight, but have noticed this on multiple systems. Can't really complain b/c it's free though.
    You could always torrent it in HD the following day. That's what I do for Strikeforce events.

    Forget watching a laggy stream! Can't think of anything more frustrating.
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  14. 03-24-11 02:46 PM #154
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    Morecraft/McCorkle, Hathaway/McCray, and Figueroa/McDonald all on facebook.
    Madsen/Russow and Semerzier/Bruce Leroy also on FB! AWESOME
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  15. 03-24-11 02:51 PM #155
    Ladle
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    Madsen/Russow and Semerzier/Bruce Leroy also on FB! AWESOME
    Essentially a full card's worth of fights on Facebook. Good stuff!
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  16. 03-24-11 02:54 PM #156
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ladle View Post
    Essentially a full card's worth of fights on Facebook. Good stuff!
    Yeah, also means Sportbet/5dimes will probably add props for some of these fights, they've already added Russow/Madsen props (but without odds so far).
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  17. 03-24-11 03:00 PM #157
    Ladle
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    Yeah, also means Sportbet/5dimes will probably add props for some of these fights, they've already added Russow/Madsen props (but without odds so far).
    Good point. I hope Madsen by decision comes out at better than even money so I can drop some more on it (I maxed out at Paddy). Then I can put extra on Russow.
    Last edited by Ladle; 03-24-11 at 03:05 PM.
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  18. 03-24-11 03:25 PM #158
    Educ8d Degener8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ladle View Post
    I like your thought process but it's risky for the exact reason that you mentioned. Hypothetically, what if the fight unfolds similarly to the Brilz fight? Granted, that was a fight that Rogerio deserved to lose, but he still got the victory.
    True, true... judging ineptitude is something to consider in any fight where a decision outcome is of reasonable probability.
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  19. 03-24-11 03:40 PM #159
    Ladle
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    Quote Originally Posted by Educ8d Degener8 View Post
    True, true... judging ineptitude is something to consider in any fight where a decision outcome is of reasonable probability.
    Absolutely. Judging has been consistently bad throughout the lifespan of MMA.
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  20. 03-24-11 03:48 PM #160
    Educ8d Degener8
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    Would you take this wager? We flip a coin, heads you pay me $1,000 tails I pay you $2,100
    If Cecil Peoples is judging the coin flip, then absolutely not.

    'Cos even if it landed on tails, he'd award the flip to heads because tail flips certainly don't finish coin flips.
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  21. 03-24-11 04:34 PM #161
    Ladle
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    Quote Originally Posted by Educ8d Degener8 View Post
    If Cecil Peoples is judging the coin flip, then absolutely not.

    'Cos even if it landed on tails, he'd award the flip to heads because tail flips certainly don't finish coin flips.
    You're being generous. I don't think Cecil Peoples is intelligent enough to even comprehend the concept of coin flip.
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  22. 03-24-11 11:04 PM #162
    youngbutgood
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    Quote Originally Posted by LearningTree View Post
    Madsen/Russow line make no sense at all. No way in hell Russow should be +250. Makes zero sense.
    How is Russow's wrestling? I've only seen his Homer Simpson win against Todd Duffee.
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  23. 03-25-11 06:23 AM #163
    The HOFF
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    Quote Originally Posted by youngbutgood View Post
    How is Russow's wrestling? I've only seen his Homer Simpson win against Todd Duffee.


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  24. 03-25-11 08:47 AM #164
    Ladle
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    Quote Originally Posted by youngbutgood View Post
    How is Russow's wrestling? I've only seen his Homer Simpson win against Todd Duffee.
    NCAA Division 1 standard. Madsen is the more decorated wrestler, but I think they're pretty evenly matched in that department.
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  25. 03-25-11 12:39 PM #165
    THE_LOCKSMITH
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    weigh ins at 7:00pm. will Johnson make weight????????
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  26. 03-25-11 12:57 PM #166
    sirchadwick1
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    Rumble NOT to make weight -500
    Rumble makes weight +325
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  27. 03-25-11 01:54 PM #167
    syn^
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    Does anyone see any value in Damarques johnson +210 beating amir? Damarques is taller and should have an advantage standing up. He's also pretty good on the ground too... im thinking hes got a legitamate chance to win the fight.
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  28. 03-25-11 02:01 PM #168
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by syn^ View Post
    Does anyone see any value in Damarques johnson +210 beating amir? Damarques is taller and should have an advantage standing up. He's also pretty good on the ground too... im thinking hes got a legitamate chance to win the fight.
    Are u sayin DaMarques will have an advantage standing just because he is taller? I think Sadollah has advantage standing, he has decent technical Muay Thai even if he does lack power and killer instinct. He's heavily favoured to win by decision for a reason.
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  29. 03-25-11 02:35 PM #169
    MMAdisciple
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    Are u sayin DaMarques will have an advantage standing just because he is taller? I think Sadollah has advantage standing, he has decent technical Muay Thai even if he does lack power and killer instinct. He's heavily favoured to win by decision for a reason.
    If the reason is "decent technical MT", I think Johnson's chances are decent.

    Peter Sobatta, Phil Baroni...not that Johnson's opponents were much better but I like DJ's ability to make the match a fight and finish the fight. Wouldn't be surprised if he won an ugly split.
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  30. 03-25-11 02:43 PM #170
    illmatick
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    Quote Originally Posted by MMAdisciple View Post
    If the reason is "decent technical MT", I think Johnson's chances are decent.

    Peter Sobatta, Phil Baroni...not that Johnson's opponents were much better but I like DJ's ability to make the match a fight and finish the fight. Wouldn't be surprised if he won an ugly split.
    pretty much the same read I have on the fight. Johnson wins by 3 round decision at +480 is enticing . Amir's superior physical strength in the clinch is my biggest concern.
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  31. 03-25-11 02:54 PM #171
    omalley21
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    Quote Originally Posted by sirchadwick1 View Post
    Rumble NOT to make weight -500
    Rumble makes weight +325
    I bet he makes weight.

    Also Sadollah is a tough dude and hes only getting better. Johnson took the fight on short notice.
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  32. 03-25-11 02:54 PM #172
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    Cant take too much from it, it was quick, but Damarques looked phenomenal last fight. Guymon isnt a pushover. He was expected to be stronger than Damarques. I think either Damarques strength or wrestling has improved. His power advantage on the feet may bring the standup closer to even. I made a mistake, and took Damarques at +160. Hopefully just a mistake because of the bad line.
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  33. 03-25-11 03:18 PM #173
    syn^
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    Amir is pretty aggressive coming forward with his muay thai and Damarques has some nice strong counter punching... he could very well floor amir.
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  34. 03-25-11 04:26 PM #174
    Vaughany
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    Dan Hardy gettin emotional at Bruce Lee's grave...

    http://www.mmafighting.com/2011/03/2...ce-lees-grave/
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  35. 03-25-11 05:02 PM #175
    LayingThe$Down
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    I usually avoid props, but Phil Davis to win decision is even money....this strikes me as a solid wager. I doubt he stops Lil Nog by submission given Nog's level of BJJ skills, and Davis hasn't yet demonstrated the striking ability necessary to stop Nog, either imo.

    I have small bets on Rumble, Morecraft, Russow, and Garcia.

    No big bets this event, just a few small plays here and there. The next Strikeforce, 129, and 130 look more juicy.
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