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I think I have a pretty strong handle on the Lewis/Tybura matchup after a little research, which I will discuss in my own thread. I am definitely leaning a certain side, but interested in how the line may move in the next few days. Very wary of jumping in on a bad price after my Moraes/Yoel bets.
My only memory of Utah was getting throw in jail on my way to Yellowstone, and the fact that while there, they had some of the best looking college girls I have ever seen, was pleasantly surprised.Originally Posted by Demonata
Demon - put a live bet on the Jazz last night at half, -1 for +160. I hope they sneak into the playoffs and stay healthy, I love watching them play and they looked good sans Hood.
Cowboy Cerrone odds jumped to -160... I missed it at -135... In now though before it gets any worse.. DAMN!!!!!! Didn't think the line would jump like that and so fast..... I could see this line going to -220 or so before fight time.
UFC Fight Night 126 - Welterweight 5 rounds - Frank Erwin Center - Austin, Texas - FS1 Sun 2/18 1001 Yancy Medeiros +140 o2½ -145 11:30PM 1002 Donald Cerrone -160 u2½ +105
Looking forward to seeing the full card odds. There are some interesting scraps here...
O/U are up on 5d.
Sun 2/18 1001 Yancy Medeiros +140 o2½ -120 11:30PM 1002 Donald Cerrone -160 u2½ +100 UFC Fight Night 126 - Heavyweight 3 rounds - Frank Erwin Center - Austin, Texas - FS1 Sun 2/18 1101 Derrick Lewis +140 o2½ -110 11:00PM 1102 Marcin Tybura -160 u2½ -110 UFC Fight Night 126 - Lightweight 3 rounds - Frank Erwin Center - Austin, Texas - FS1 Sun 2/18 1201 Francisco Trinaldo +175 o2½ -160 10:30PM 1202 James Vick -210 u2½ +140
Wish I could have got Tybura early now. Looking at this fight, Black Beast's wrestling is terrible. I think Tybura has a big edge on the ground in this fight and I think the striking is at least a wash. Tybura has never actually been finished in his career (One injury stoppage) while Lewis has displayed a lack of heart and passion with his constant retirement BS. When Lewis faces any type of striker, he gets finished. If that fight with Shamil was a 3 round fight, he loses it handily. Not even going to discuss that embarrassing Travis Browne fight where Browne literally had him turning his back to the cage before Travis Browne went all Travis Browne and got finished. Roy Nelson should have won that fight against Lewis as well. He controlled him for literally over half the fight and didn't eat hardly any strikes the last couple rounds.
Vick/Trinaldo is an interesting fight. I feel like Vick is beatable with a top heavy wrestling game that Trinaldo COULD implement but he's done much more striking lately than expected and I can't see him beating Vick on the feet without finishing him or landing heavy in 2/3 rounds. Probably a pass but I'll re-evaluate later
Put me down for the OVER in the Moras/Pudilova fight. The only chance at losing this one is a sub which should be troublesome since Moras just subbed Ashlee Evans Smith right? Not so much because Pudilova isn't a wrestler at all. She could have salted rounds away against Kim last fight with ANY sort of takedown but never attempted to. Moras takedowns are pretty poor and with Pudilova fighting a much bigger BW like Lansberg and forcing her to 1/7, I have confidence that she keeps the fight upright. On the feet, I think Pudilova is the better striker and should win a decision as a dog unless she just gets stuck against the fence. Regardless, this will be an absolute yawner and I'm excited! I can't wait. The average BW fight should be -180 at OVER 2.5 but I would put this one at -350 rather easily. Both women have proven to be very durable while possessing no power on the feet at all of their own.
Vick is free money to me. Crazy reach advantage and just striking at a very high level right now. Vick peppers him all night and probably gets the finish
Interesting take on this fight. Perhaps you're right.. I think if Tybura can get out of the 1st round he will win.. I'm gotta watch more tape on Tybura.. Is his wrestling good enough to plant the Beast on his back the entire fight though? We've see the Beast show improved td defense and the ability to get back up or flip it into top position..
I need to cap this fight completely before I comment anymore.. Beast might be washed up also because of his chronic back problems.. Hard to train with a bad back..
Last edited by JIBBBY; 02-12-18 at 08:53 PM.
If Lewis doesn't get top position or land a huge shot, he doesn't do anything IMO. Tybura definitely outworks him here and I don't think Lewis will get top position on Tybura so it comes down to the one big shot which Tybura has showed he has a pretty good chin.Interesting take on this fight. Perhaps you're right.. I think if Tybura can get out of the 1st round he will win.. I'm gotta watch more tape on Tybura.. Is his wrestling good enough to plant the Beast on his back the entire fight though? We've see the Beast show improved td defense and the ability to get back up or flip it into top position..
I need to cap this fight completely before I comment anymore..
Anybody have anything on these LFA/RFA guys? I watched the Holland/Neal fight that was actually at 185 for a title (not 170 like Tapology says). He was fighting a guy that was incredibly lanky and awakward in Holland. Holland is MUCH MUCH more athletic and diverse than Camozzi though and Neal didn't look too bad. I had it 19-19 going into the 3rd when he got caught by a punch. He really shouldn't be fighting at 185 IMO but at 170 he's built like a tank. His wrestling isn't too bad. He defended pretty well against Waldon in the DWCS fight at 185 and he managed to take down Holland a few times as well at 185. As bad of TDD as Camozzi has, I can see Neal getting it to the ground if he wants with his frame and power at 170. Camozzi was taken down and controlled by Randy Brown for 3+ minutes in the 1st round. Camozzi does have some decent subs off his back but 3+ minutes of top control to Randy Brown that early is a very bad sign. My only concern here is that Neal hasn't really been deep in fights outside of that TKO loss to Holland in the 3rd. He didn't look tired though so I think he's probably fine in a 15 min fight against a guy he's much more athletic than
Timeout. You think Pudilova will be the underdog? Man... I'm halfway through capping that fight, but from what I see so far I would smash Pudilova at dog odds. Moras's body has all the structural integrity of a chewed piece of bubble gum. She shoots takedowns and then immediately crumples to the mat. Also, in each of her last 3 fights she has gotten up off her back exactly ZERO times. I think Pudilova wins this on the feet, and if it does hit the mat, she's almost definitely on top. Moras does have some decent sub skills but Pudilova has never been finished.
I think we'll see a very tight line honestly. I capped Pudilva around -150 or so but power rating wise, I think Moras has to be the favorite more than likely.
I agree. And fighting in his home state as well. He's also been on a roll lately. Trinaldo's also damn-near 40.
Trinaldo is as tough as nails and has a lot of guts and grit.. Hard to break him.. Hard to bet against him.. I know I tried and lost in the past.. Can't knock him out standing and unless you are a big time wrestler and can ground him you probably aren't gonna win a decision either... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Francisco-Trinaldo-31103
If you are gonna beat Trinaldo it's either by sub or decision anyways.. Can Vick ground him at will or out grind him in clinches? I don't think so.. Can he keep distance and pepper him all fight standing and win by decision on points maybe, maybe not?
I'm gonna try Trinaldo myself maybe if the odds get a little better come fight time.. I think Trinaldo will close the distance and smother Vick, grinds on Vick to a decision maybe.. I think he's a live dog...
UFC Fight Night 126 - Lightweight 3 rounds - Frank Erwin Center - Austin, Texas - FS1 Sun 2/18 1201 Francisco Trinaldo +175 o2½ -160 10:30PM 1202 James Vick -210 u2½ +140
Workable props that are out..
1211 Vick wins by 3 round decision +155
I'm kinda leaning with this Trinaldo by decision prop myself.. Most of Trinaldo's wins do come by decision anyways...
1207 Trinaldo wins by 3 round decision +350
FS1 Main Card
James
Vick
"The Texecutioner"
vs
Francisco
Trinaldo
"Massaranduba"
UNITED STATES
Country
BRAZIL
12-1-0
Record
22-5-0
17%
KO/TKO
32%
33%
SUB
23%
33%
DEC
45%
75 in
Height
69 in
155 lbs
Weight
155 lbs
76 in
Reach
70 in
43 in
Leg Reach
40 in
Last edited by JIBBBY; 02-13-18 at 01:05 AM.
Digging deep with tape study for Pudilova and I thought this was interesting/relevant.
In this fight with Stoliarenko she gets caught in deep armbars four different times but doesn't tap as her arm hyperextended at least twice. She may be immune to armbars, which is Moras's go to sub.
Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1poiuAU1yfo
Wow that girl has 4 wins by armlock. Interesting. I still think hedging is a good idea if you have much exposure because that is the only option other than decision
I wish I was more impressed with Pudilova but I still think she beats Moras. I'm not at all impressed with Moras.
Waiting for resident WMMA expert, Turbo, to weigh in.
Damn pudilova opens -175. Just about right. Sucks
Yeah man. If she had been a dog... like I said I woulda smashed.
I would have as well. I capped her at -150. I would still love to see plus money on her by decision
These lines are originating later and taking even longer to get to all the books. Gordon opens -185 and now he's at -245 and still not available at BookMaker.
Screw it. I got Gordon at -225 and took a big shot. I my be pushing this play just a little bit too hard, but at least i'm backing a guy who I have rated 10/10 for grit. If you're gonna beat Jared Gordon, you have to BEAT him. Tough task for Ferreira coming back after 17 months away for USADA suspension.
Who the penetrate is opening these MMA lines now??? I capped Sage at -275 and Gordon at -250 (plus Neal at -175). All these came out much lower but I couldn't get a dime on these. UGHHH
Frustrating isn't it? I capped Gordon in the -300-350 range. Luckily my book opened -225 when 5dimes was already at -250 so I took it for 4.5u to win 2. Any more juice than -225 and it would've had to be a parlay piece only. He's at -270 now on 5dimes. If I only I could've hit the -185 opener but the books aren't taking any risks right now. It looked like Sportsbook opened the lines and nobody else followed until they had already moved and settled.
#PoundTheWinners
Does anyone remember the ridiculous brawl that was Yancy Medeiros vs Alex Oliveira?
Hard to believe Yancy is fighting again two months later. I hope he's 100% recovered from that. That was a crazy fight.
I was at that fight. It was amazing! Best fight I’ve ever attended live.
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Line seems a little tight for Joby Sanchez IMO. Never been subbed, and faced some decent dub threats. Roberto Sanchez is probably a one trick pony. I thought Joby would be favored more. Think there's a little value there.
After the last event where I took Yoel and Blaydes I have an open play to win over a grand that I love...
Remaining are Stephens, Ferguson, Poirer and Cormier...would pick those guys any day so I like it!
As for this event, FWIW, I'm looking at backing Gordon, Pudilova and maybe Joby.
Curious to see te Gordon over/under line. Guy is an Effin monster and he will get the finish
He is like a slow motor though. He breaks people down. I'd look at Gordon round 3.
Hey guys - surprised nobody is discussing the Millender and Alves fight. Although Millender has not fought anyone of significance, he surely has the physicality advantage in terms of strength and reach. I have scoured his social media accounts and he has what any young up and comer would need to be successful and is extremely hungry with a great attitude.
His striking is appears to be not as technical as Alves' but seems far more dangerous and is nothing to scoff at. He has actually beat a few top regional guys in impressive fashion as well and has a solid record. On the other hand, the inner bias in me examines Alves' record and sees no solid wins post '15; which implies that the PEDs he most likely used to take were at least somewhat vital to his earlier success. The Mein fight could count as impressive but this was around the time when Mein was contemplating retirement ( at least temporarily).
I don't see a whole lot of well known guys that train at CSW but know that this is Erik Paulson's gym (Barnett) and this would seem to calm my worries about any perceived grappling disadvantages as we all know that Paulson is a decent MMA coach and I believe (but am not sure) he helped to fashion Barnett's catch-wrestling style. Don't quote me on that - need to look that up. I can conclude that Alves comes from the superior camp. Millender said he did not go too far outside his own camp except to Bobby Green for training.
Other facts - Alves is coming off a 10 month layoff (2 canceled fights) and Millender fought a little over a month ago and said in a recent interview that a short 4 week camp should suffice. Alves may be fresh and hungry. Alves is 4 years older but has more than double the mileage in terms of wear and tear.
Millender is anywhere from a +135 to +150 dog - Could be worth taking a stab...
Need to watch some more tape.
Thoughts welcome..
Tough one to call - Alves is surely the most technical striker with crisp MT and solid leg kicks / kicks in general - which would lead to points on the outside; he obviously does not prefer to grapple and I believe that Millender would have the advantage in the clinch do to size and strength advantage. I see that Alves has a tendency to gas a little from time to time due to his compact and muscular frame.
Millender is more lean muscle and seems to have a decent gas tank. As far as his striking goes he has a nice rangy jab, a really nice and quick oblique kick (a la Bones Jones) and he has some nice miss-directional standup techniques with fake telegraphing / kicks which setup some overhands and hooks. He is head and shoulders above Alves when it comes to speed and quickness - he can dart in and out quicker than just about any WW. But can't say his footwork is better than Alves'.
I think the odds makers got the line right - I think it's really all about momentum and who capitalizes but believe Millender has the tools to hang with Alves.
Still, tough to call with Alves' extensive experience in the big leagues.
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