[JIBBBY]

Who the penetrate is opening these MMA lines now??? I capped Sage at -275 and Gordon at -250 (plus Neal at -175). All these came out much lower but I couldn't get a dime on these. UGHHH

Line makers are on it... Props and O/U's they still slip up though from time to time more then on the straights IMO.

I found it much easier to bet MMA just a few years ago.. Fighters are all so skilled and well rounded now in the UFC.. Back in the day fighters were badly exposed for their glaring weakness and just weren't as well rounded as they are today.. It was much easier to see a clear victor back then.. That's my take..

MMA is still very workable though as you well know...

[turbozed]

I wish I was more impressed with Pudilova but I still think she beats Moras. I'm not at all impressed with Moras.

Waiting for resident WMMA expert, Turbo, to weigh in.

Dog or pass in this one. Right now it's a pass but might take a shot at Moras if it gets closer to +200. Pudilova hasn't shown any ground skills and there's a possibility she just doesn't really have any. Moras has the gas and willpower to threaten all 15 minutes. She got beatdown badly for 14 minutes against Andrade and still found herself almost getting a comeback submission in that fight in the last minute. That sort of mental toughness is rare in WMMA.

She didn't fight for a while due to injuries (I think broken hand) but apparently she's been improving on her game since. Showed against Evans-Smith.

That said, it's tough to bet on someone who has looked so obviously goofy and unathletic in the past.

[Shagdogy]

Just capped Neal vs Camozzi and it's looking like another stoppage loss for Camozzi IMO. Neal has been KOing guys at MW while Camozzi just got stopped by a guy in between LW and WW. Camozzi also brings a lot of volume but doesn't complement it with very good striking defense. He is going to be walking into a lot of punches from Neal, and while I think Camozzi will land some as well he will be receiving punches back that pack much more power. And if Camozzi does need to change the fight up because he's losing on the feet or at least getting hit too hard, he doesn't have the wrestling advantage to be able to bring the fight to the mat. Bad matchup for Camozzi. As long as Neal makes the weight without any issues and is ready to perform for his debut, I think he stops Camozzi.

[Thrilla]

MMA Pros pick Cerrone vs Medeiros.

[JIBBBY]

MMAmania write ups Part 1 and 2 -




145 lbs.: Steven Peterson vs. Brandon Davis

Steven Peterson (16-6) choked out Manny Vazquez in 2016 to cap a six-fight win streak and earn the Legacy FC Bantamweight title, only to lose it to The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): “Brazil” competitor Leandro Higa in his first defense. He got a shot on the “Tuesday Night Contender Series” (DWTNCS) anyway and — though he lost a split decision to Benito Lopez — joined the promotion proper after a technical knockout victory in Dec. 2017.
He will give up one inch of height and three inches of reach to Brandon Davis (8-4).
“Killer B” likewise graced the DWTNCS Octagon, out-slugging Austin Arnett on episode four to earn himself a spot in UFC. Kyle Bochniak proved too elusive a target, however, and handed Davis his first defeat since 2016 at UFC 220.
He steps in for Humberto Bandenay, who ran into **** issues, on just one week’s notice.
I felt that Peterson had a solid chance against Bandenay, who is still fairly unproven and would have had issues with Peterson’s relentless grappling. Against Davis, he’s in for a beating. Peterson straight-up has some of the worst striking defense I’ve seen in quite a while, marching face-first into almost everything his opponents throw so as to tie up on the fence and work for trips. He’s not like Bochniak — he’s going to stand there and eat Davis’ strikes all night long.
His rock-solid chin could be an issue, but his poor level changing and vulnerability to shots on the way play right into Davis’ hands. “Killer B” scrambles up from takedowns and wrecks him on the inside, piling on damage for either a late stoppage or wide decision.
Prediction: Davis via unanimous decision

170 lbs.: Alex Morono vs. Josh Burkman

Alex Morono (13-4) overcame 3:1 odds to scrape past Kyle Noke in his UFC debut, then pulled off another upset of James Moontasri 11 months later. Recent times have been more trying, as he was knocked out cold by Niko Price in Feb. 2017 and subsequently beaten by Keita Nakamura in the latter’s native Japan.
He owns five wins by submission and another four by (technical) knockout.
Joshua Burkman (28-16) -- whose submission of Jon Fitch in 2013 seemed to herald a new era — is currently 1-6 in his last seven fights (1-7 in his last eight if you include the “No Contest” against Hector Lombard). His last two losses were the most devastating yet, a 102-second submission loss to Michel Prazeres and a brutal knockout loss to Drew Dober.
This will be his return to Welterweight after five fights at 155 pounds.
When was the last time Burkman looked good in a fight? The only person he’s beaten since 2014 is K.J. Noons, who was 2-4 (1 NC) in his previous six fights. He looked … okay against Patrick Cote before getting knocked out and his fight with Zak Ottow was moderately close, but there hasn’t been a single moment in his current UFC tenure that made me think, “damn ... that’s impressive.”
While Morono is a bit of an overachiever and is still too wild with his punches, he’s 10 years younger than Burkman and has the volume striking to win a fairly wide decision. Burkman’s chin and wrestling better be absolutely on point, because otherwise we’re getting another forgettable performance from “People’s Warrior” that sees him outworked or stopped by a wayward punch.
Prediction: Morono via unanimous decision


185 lbs.: Tim Williams vs. Oskar Piechota

Despite two shots on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF), one on TUF 17 and one on TUF 19, Tim Williams (15-3) never quite got over the hump, falling to Dylan Andrews and Dhiego Lima. Undaunted, he enters the cage having won five straight, including victories over UFC veterans Nah-shon Burrell and Jay Silva.
“The South Jersey Strangler” stands two inches taller than Piechota at 6’2”.
An ADCC veteran with a win over Vinny Magalhaes under his belt, Oskar Piechota (10-0-1) scored a finish in all nine of his pre-UFC victories, each in less than two rounds. He had to settle for a decision in his Octagon debut, but nonetheless impressed with his striking and grappling against Jonathan Wilson.
His finishes are split 5-4 between submissions and knockouts.
There does not appear to be a clear avenue of victory for Williams. Should he attempt his customary brand of aggressive wrestling and top control, he’ll have to deal with literally world-class Brazilian jiu-jitsu. The striking doesn’t seem like it would go much better for him, as Piechota packs some serious heat.
Williams’ ideal course of action is to smother Piechota into submission with heavy, conservative top control, but the Pole is just too damn good on the ground. Worse, he has the tools to put Williams on his back should the opportunity arise. He wraps up a choke sometime late in the first round.
Prediction: Piechota via first-round submission
*****
Now, finally, onto the FOX Sports 1 portion ...

155 lbs.: Jared Gordon vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira

He had to endure a bout of food poisoning to do it, but Jared Gordon (14-1) finally made his UFC debut in June 2017 and made the most of it with a ground-and-pound stoppage of Michel Quinones. Returning to Lightweight after a rough cut, he battered Nova Uniao standout Hacran Dias in Sao Paulo in Oct. 2017.
He will give up six inches of reach to Carlos Diego Ferreira (12-2).
Ferreira started his UFC career strong with consecutive bonus-winning stoppages of Colton Smith and Ramsey Nijem, but saw his momentum evaporate after losses to Beneil Dariush and Dustin Poirier. Despite these setbacks, he proved he’s still a force to be reckoned with in a one-sided victory over Olivier Aubin-Mercier.
This will be his first fight in two years thanks to a failed drug test.
Ferreira has the tools to win this fight. He looked like a genuine contender against Aubin-Mercier, dominating the Canadian judoka with absolute ease. Had he fought even once in the last 12 months, I’d be picking him here.
Thing is, he hasn’t, and Gordon pushes a downright murderous pace. Rock-solid cardio and a truly wilting pressure game make Gordon a nightmare to fight should you have any sort of cage rust. Ferreira should find early success with his striking and takedown defense, but as the round progress, Gordon’s unflappable assault will sap his cardio and will to fight. Gordon buries him in volume for the decision win.
Prediction: Gordon via unanimous decision

170 lbs.: Geoffrey Nealvs. Brian Camozzi

Geoffrey Neal (8-2) cut his teeth under the Legacy and XKO banners, putting together a 5-1 run after a defeat in his third professional fight. His efforts landed him a spot on Dana White’s “Tuesday Night Contender Series,” where “Handz of Steel” [sic] tore up former RFA title challenger Chase Waldon in less than two minutes.
His last four wins have come by form of knockout.
Brian Camozzi scored six first-round finishes in his first seven fights, ultimately winning the RFA Welterweight title with a 100-second submission of Nick Barnes in 2016. He has yet to recapture that success in UFC, however, suffering stoppage losses to Randy Brown and Chad Laprise in his two Octagon appearances.
“The Mantis” will have three inches of height and two inches of reach on Neal.
Camozzi has a lot more power and better finishing instincts than his brother, but he’s still not a great fighter. His core issue is defense — for being ridiculously tall and long for the weight class, he let the comparatively diminutive Chad Laprise find the mark over and over in their fight. Neal, a powerful combination puncher, looks to have the right skillset to get inside on Camozzi and tear him up where those long arms become a liability.
Camozzi is definitely a threat on the inside and can do some damage at range with his kicks, but he’s going to struggle to keep the aggressive Neal off of him. Expect a fairly even striking battle until Neal finds his range and starts putting leather on Camozzi’s chin with regularity.
Prediction: Neal via second-round technical knockout

125 lbs.: Roberto Sanchez vs. Joby Sanchez

Roberto Sanchez (7-1) spent the entirety of his pre-UFC career in Legacy FC and the subsequent LFA, earning its Flyweight title last June. This set up a UFC debut less than two months later, where he suffered a submission loss to Team Alpha Male ace Joseph Morales.
His last six victories have come via submission.
The other Sanchez, Joby Sanchez (11-2), went 1-2 in UFC his first time around before picking up two regional victories and catching Dana White’s eye once again. In two “Tuesday Night Contender Series” appearances, he defeated former Legacy champ Manny Vazquez and beat down South African wrestling standout J.P. Buys to earn another shot with the organization.
He has knocked out and submitted four opponents apiece.
Yeah, I’m just going to refer to these two by their first names for clarity’s sake.
While Joby has definitely improved since his first UFC run, he still has a critical issue that Roberto has the skills to mercilessly exploit: Iffy takedown defense. Both Vazquez and Buys successfully put him on his back in their fights and Roberto — a strong wrestler and submission artist — presents a similar sort of quandary. As Joby lacks standout stopping power in his strikes, it’s hard to envision him deterring Roberto in his quest to put him on his back and do bad things to his circulatory system.
I still believe Roberto has quite a bit of upside despite the loss to Morales and the stylistic match up is all his. “Little Fury” wrangles Joby to the mat in the first couple minutes and locks up his fifth rear-naked choke.
Prediction: Roberto via first-round submission

135 lbs.: Sarah Moras vs. Lucie Pudilova

Sarah Moras (5-2) — representing Team Miesha Tate on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 18 — fought her way to the semifinals before falling to teammate and eventual winner Julianna Pena. After splitting her first two UFC bouts and missing almost 26 months because of injury, “Cheesecake” returned in Sept. 2017 in triumphant fashion with an upset submission of Ashlee Evans-Smith.
She has stopped two opponents with strikes and another two by armbar.
Lucie Pudilova (7-2) stepped up on short notice to rematch Lina Lansberg in her UFC debut, battering Lansberg’s eye to obscene proportions, but ultimately losing a decision. She had more luck against Ji Yeon Kim, whom she beat by decision in Singapore last June.
Her wins are likewise split 2:2 between knockouts and submissions.
Moras’ quality submission game is badly hamstrung by her poor wrestling. All the Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills in the world don’t mean squat if the whole fight takes place where her opponent wants it. Against Pudilova, she faces a superior striker whom she does not have the skills to take out of her comfort zone.
That’s the long and short of it, honestly. Moras is simply on the wrong end of the stylistic clash. Pudilova sprawls-and-brawls her way to a decision victory.
Prediction: Pudilovavia unanimous decision

[JIBBBY]

Patrick's gambling picks on MMAmania also... For what ever it's worth...


What Went Wrong at UFC 221?
Well, it’s about time I had a straight-up bust this year. Jake Matthews and Jussier Formiga both showed significantly more stopping power than in previous appearances and got me much more interested in their future fights. Formiga was also aided by Ben Nguyen continuing to throw naked low kicks despite getting taken down from them more than once, but no use crying over spilled brain cells.
UFC Fight Night 126 Odds For The Undercard:
Jared Gordon (-260) vs. Diego Ferreira (+200)
Geoffrey Neal (-215) vs. Brian Camozzi (+170)
Joby Sanchez (-135) vs. Roberto Sanchez (+105)
Lucie Pudilova (-155) vs. Sarah Moras (+125)
Brandon Davis (-195) vs. Steven Peterson (+160)
Oskar Piechota (-260) vs. Tim Williams (+210)
Alex Morono (-230) vs. Josh Burkman (+180)
Thoughts: Roberto Sanchez did not start out as an underdog. He should not be one now. Joby has the UFC experience and Roberto’s last fight was something of a disaster, but the style match up is definitely in the latter’s favor. Joby got taken down by both of his “Tuesday Night Contender Series” opponents and Roberto’s opponents tend not to get back up once he puts them on their backs. Roberto wins the Sanchez battle, so bet accordingly. And be sure to double-check your ticket.
UFC Fight Night 126 Odds For The Main Card:
Donald Cerrone (-160) vs. Yancy Medeiros (+140)
Marcin Tybura (-145) vs. Derrick Lewis (+125)
James Vick (-220) vs. Francisco Trinaldo (+180)
Thiago Alves (-180) vs. Curtis Millender (+150)
Sage Northcutt (-300) vs. Thibault Gouti (+240)
Thoughts: I am more than happy to admit that my distaste for James Vick colors my thinking, but putting him as a -220 favorite over someone who’s 8-1 in his last nine bouts seems a bit excessive. Their resumes are fairly close when it comes to quality of opponents and it’s worth noting that Vick’s sole UFC loss came against another southpaw pressure fighter in Beneil Dariush. Trinaldo is still a beast at 39 and has the goods to ruin Vick’s homecoming.
UFC Fight Night 126 Best Bets:

• Single bet -- Roberto Sanchez: Bet $80 to make $84
• Single bet -- Francisco Trinaldo: Bet $50 to make $90

Somebody’s getting hurt and somebody’s getting a bonus in the main event. See you Sunday, Maniacs!

[TPowell]

Pounded the moras fgtd prop at -260 as posted on Twitter earlier. It's all the way up to -380 now. I'll hedge a little with moras by sub when that comes out probably and add more on pudilova by decision if line is right

[TPowell]

Trying to figure out why Peterson's strike defense is expected to be so poor against Davis. He's fighting guys like Vasquez, Higo, and Lopez who are 135'ers and very quick. Sure Davis has more power but he slows down after a round and he wants to talk and taunt in the cage. Peterson is a true grinder. He's looked out of place on the feet speed wise to me against some guys but he eats it and gets them against the cage and breaks their will most of the time. I DEFINITELY don't like Davis' cardio 4 weeks after going the distance with Kyle. My only concern is the size difference here. If Davis can rotate off the cage in the clinch against Peterson, he is probably able to win the fight but -200 on this clown that just lost to Kyle Bochniak (even if it was debatable)?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hugo’s 100 Point Trivia Question:
People asked for a harder trivia question so it’s time for some MMA Math. Make sure to show your work to receive credit. First correct response gets 100 BPs from me. Best of luck! For an extra 25 BPs, name the UFC Champion for this weight class.


Derrick Lewis’ UFC KO/TKO Wins


PLUS


Donald Cerrone’s Total UFC Wins


MINUS


Sage Northcutt’s UFC Losses at Lightweight


TIMES


James Vick’s UFC Wins ITD

[TPowell]

8+19-0*5= 135- TJ Dillashaw

[TPowell]

Was trying to figure out whether to use order of operations before I saw that came out to 135

[Hugo de Naranja]

Was trying to figure out whether to use order of operations before I saw that came out to 135

We have a winner! Great job TPowell.

[Aye J Mac]

Leaning yancy medeiros + money

[Thrilla]

Jimmy Smith preview: Cerrone vs Madeiros

[Shagdogy]

Trying to figure out why Peterson's strike defense is expected to be so poor against Davis. He's fighting guys like Vasquez, Higo, and Lopez who are 135'ers and very quick. Sure Davis has more power but he slows down after a round and he wants to talk and taunt in the cage. Peterson is a true grinder. He's looked out of place on the feet speed wise to me against some guys but he eats it and gets them against the cage and breaks their will most of the time. I DEFINITELY don't like Davis' cardio 4 weeks after going the distance with Kyle. My only concern is the size difference here. If Davis can rotate off the cage in the clinch against Peterson, he is probably able to win the fight but -200 on this clown that just lost to Kyle Bochniak (even if it was debatable)?

To be fair, Bochniak fought the exact right kind of fight (which Turbo predicted), but Peterson won't fight this way. He is going to walk right into Davis's wheelhouse where his striking is quite good. Not sure what to think of Peterson's loss to Benito Lopez though. Lopez is definitely a dangerous fighter and Peterson went the distance and got the fight to the mat many times.

I haven't been able to get to much tape for this one yet. In the hospital... new baby, so yeah, a little busy. What's the weight difference? Is Peterson not normally Featherweight? My hunch matches yours that Peterson is a real tough grinder who can test Davis, but I haven't been able to get to specifics.

[ken10]

Yancy throws wide looping punches. Cowboys gonna go straight down the pipe and finish him

[Shagdogy]

Anybody able to find video of Peterson's most recent fight vs Dustin Winter?

[TPowell]

Anybody able to find video of Peterson's most recent fight vs Dustin Winter?

I'm not but on paper that guy looked like a real bum.

[TPowell]

Wow some real money came in AGAINST Tybura by decision. It was -240 earlier and went straight to -340. You can get Tybura by decision at +280 right now which is the most likely outcome to this fight IMO.

[turbozed]

To be fair, Bochniak fought the exact right kind of fight (which Turbo predicted), but Peterson won't fight this way. He is going to walk right into Davis's wheelhouse where his striking is quite good. Not sure what to think of Peterson's loss to Benito Lopez though. Lopez is definitely a dangerous fighter and Peterson went the distance and got the fight to the mat many times.

I haven't been able to get to much tape for this one yet. In the hospital... new baby, so yeah, a little busy. What's the weight difference? Is Peterson not normally Featherweight? My hunch matches yours that Peterson is a real tough grinder who can test Davis, but I haven't been able to get to specifics.

Hey congrats on the new baby Shagy!

[Shagdogy]

Hey congrats on the new baby Shagy!

Thanks! I had forgotten just how tired it's possible to get. I think I have to just admit to myself that my capping for this event is done with and it's gonna be memory and gut feel for a little bit.

[JIBBBY]

This card should be on tonight.. UFC is getting cute, I don't like it!!!!!

[Richard Clock]

This card should be on tonight.. UFC is getting cute, I don't like it!!!!!

Funny, I would much prefer the events to be on Friday night or Sunday afternoon, as those are the times I am much more likely to be home.

[JIBBBY]

Anybody have any thoughts on Sage Northcut against this Frenchy? I know Sage continues to improve but is he really almost a 3-1 favorite? We've seen Sage get bullied before and then sub'd out.. This Frenchy Gouti has has a bunch of sub's on his record.. 50 percent of his wins come by Sub...

UFC Fight Night 126 - Lightweight 3 rounds - Frank Erwin Center - Austin, Texas - FS1
Sun 2/18		1501 Thibault Gouti		+255	o1½ -135
9:00PM		1502 Sage Northcutt		-310	u1½ +115

Can Gouti survive Sage's early striking onslaught? Straight and sub odds for Gouti are fat anyways.. I'm thinking about it?

1527 Gouti wins by submission

+1040

On the flip Northcut has actually been winning by sub himself lately as well..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Sage-Northcutt-130911

1531 Northcutt wins by submission

+475

FS1 Main Card



Sage
Northcutt
"Super"
vs
Thibault
Gouti
"GT"

UNITED STATES
Country
FRANCE

9-2-0
Record
11-3-0

44%
KO/TKO
33%

33%
SUB
50%

22%
DEC
17%

72 in
Height
70 in

155 lbs
Weight
155 lbs

71 in
Reach
72 in

40 in
Leg Reach
41 in

[JIBBBY]

MMAmania main Card write ups -



170 lbs.: Donald Cerrone (32-10) vs. Yancy Medeiros (15-4)
I won’t argue that Cerrone’s losses to Jorge Masvidal and Darren Till weren’t devastating, but let’s not forget that he gave Robbie Lawler a damn good fight just this past July. “Cowboy” ain’t riding off into the sunset anytime soon, especially not against the man with the worst striking defense in the entire welterweight division.
That’s the thing; Medeiros is powerful, gutsy, has inhuman recovery ability, and can snatch a choke out of nowhere. He’s also ludicrously easy to hit, not terribly hard to drop, and isn’t much of a wrestler. He isn’t the sort of technician Masvidal and Till are, either, and trying to pressure Cerrone without the proper craft means eating a boatload of intercepting knees to the body until your gas tank empties and he starts punting your leg halfway across the arena. Cerrone’s going to hurt him before too long.
And when Cerrone hurts people, they don’t get back up.
I do believe we’ve seen the end of Cerrone as a fixture of the top five. I do not, however, believe we’ve seen the end of Cerrone as a threat to everyone below the elite. As entertaining as Medeiros is, one simply cannot be that willing to take punishment against a sniper like “Cowboy.” He drops Medeiros in the early going and locks up his favorite rear naked choke on the way up.
Prediction: Cerrone via first-round submission

265 lbs.: Derrick Lewis (18-5) vs. Marcin Tybura (16-3)

I love “The Black Beast.” He’s got charisma for days and his ground-and-pound is the stuff of nightmares. At the same time, I recognize that he’s a deeply flawed fighter whose physical health is a question mark thanks to a persistent back injury. In Tybura, he faces a serious stylistic clash, a sharper kickboxer with superior wrestling and no major cardio issues.
Lewis’ strategy is fairly simple: if he can’t get easy takedowns, he’ll stay patient and let his opponents wear themselves out trying to overpower him on the mat. His striking consists of periodic bull-rushes unless his opponents choose to get in his face, at which point he’ll throw down and destroy them with his durability and colossal power. Unfortunately for him, Tybura has a strong long-range kicking game and quality takedown defense, allowing him to play matador and steer clear of the meteors Lewis has instead of fists.
If this were five rounds, I’d probably pick Lewis, as he as an uncanny ability to pounce the second his opponents are sufficiently tired. Since it’s just three, though, I say Tybura can manage his stamina and rack up damage from range all night. “Tybur” wins a fairly uneventful decision.
Prediction: Tybura via unanimous decision

155 lbs.: James Vick (12-1) vs. Francisco Trinaldo (22-5)

Behold that rarest of MMA creatures, the lanky fighter who actually know how to fight long. It feels like just yesterday that Vick was getting clipped by 5’8” Nick Hein and hauling ass away from the German’s 66.5” reach for the rest of the fight. He’s finally added stopping power to his hands to complement his killer jiu-jitsu and kicks, which is a scary prospect for a 6’3” lightweight.
But people are seriously sleeping on Francisco Trinaldo.
“Massaranduba,” once known for gassing out after six minutes in fights he was winning, put together a seven-fight winning streak in the massively stacked lightweight division. He’s honed his striking and pressure fighting to the extent that he tore Paul Felder up on the feet before ultimately finishing him on a grievous cut. Despite pushing 40, he’s incredibly adept at forcing opponents to the fence and putting his refrigerator-like 5’9” frame to use with power shots on the inside.
Vick is certainly capable of jabbing him to bits, but his struggles with another southpaw slugger in Beneil Dariush are an ill omen. Worse, Trinaldo is the superior wrestler of the two, which mitigates the threat of Vick’s chokes and gives him another option with which to hamstring Vick’s striking. “Massaranduba” finds the mark with his overhand left sometime in the first round.
Prediction: Trinaldo via first-round TKO

170 lbs.: Thiago Alves (22-11) vs. Curtis Millender (14-3)

According to the UFC’s measurements, which admittedly don’t have a sterling track record of accuracy, Millender will have six inches of height on Alves. Tapology says he’ll also have eight inches of reach, although it pegs Millender at 6’2” instead UFC.com’s 6’3”. Millender has some brutal long-range attacks and his head kick in particular is top-of-the-line.
So why are the oddsmakers and I picking Alves when “The Pitbull” has lost two of his last three?
The key is that Alves has, after years of being wrestled into the dirt by the likes of Jon Fitch and Rick Story, become an extremely capable takedown artist. Millender, meanwhile, got taken down and touched up by the shorter Nick Barnes in his last fight. Further, Millender appears to have issues with low kicks, which have been Alves’ trademark since his UFC debut all those years ago.
Alves has the countering skills to punish Millender when “Curtious” overextends with his punches and the wrestling to disrupt his offense. Unless Millender can sneak his shin around Alves’ guard, which he is certainly capable of doing, expect Alves to cruise to victory with precise punches and regular takedowns.
Prediction: Alves via unanimous decision

145 lbs.: Steven Peterson (16-6) vs. Brandon Davis (8-4)

This slot originally belonged to a strawweight fight between Jessica Aguilar and Livia Renata Souza, but the latter recently suffered a broken hand. Instead, we get this former Fight Pass fight, which I’d already written up. Ctrl-C, Ctrl-V.
Steven Peterson choked out Manny Vazquez in 2016 to cap a six-fight win streak and earn the Legacy FC Bantamweight title, only to lose it to The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): “Brazil” competitor Leandro Higo in his first defense. He got a shot on the “Tuesday Night Contender Series” (DWTNCS) anyway and — though he lost a split decision to Benito Lopez — joined the promotion proper after a technical knockout victory in Dec. 2017.
He will give up one inch of height and three inches of reach to Brandon Davis.
“Killer B” likewise graced the DWTNCS Octagon, out-slugging Austin Arnett on episode four to earn himself a spot in UFC. Kyle Bochniak proved too elusive a target, however, and handed Davis his first defeat since 2016 at UFC 220.
He steps in for Humberto Bandenay, who ran into **** issues, on just one week’s notice.
I felt that Peterson had a solid chance against Bandenay, who is still fairly unproven and would have had issues with Peterson’s relentless grappling. Against Davis, he’s in for a beating. Peterson straight-up has some of the worst striking defense I’ve seen in quite a while, marching face-first into almost everything his opponents throw so as to tie up on the fence and work for trips. He’s not like Bochniak — he’s going to stand there and eat Davis’ strikes all night long.
His rock-solid chin could be an issue, but his poor level changing and vulnerability to shots on the way play right into Davis’ hands. “Killer B” scrambles up from takedowns and wrecks him on the inside, piling on damage for either a late stoppage or wide decision.
Prediction: Davis via unanimous decision

155 lbs.: Sage Northcutt (9-2) vs. Thibault Gouti (12-3)

Thibault Gouti has been stopped three times in four UFC fights. Two of them lasted a combined 2:00 flat. His sole victory came over Andrew Holbrook, whose chin is somewhere between “questionable” and “nonexistent.”
Can you tell this is a showcase fight?
Gouti has some power and isn’t lost on the mat, but there’s really nothing here to suggest he has a shot at the upset. “Super Sage” looked better than ever against Michel Quiñones, mixing up his strikes extremely well, and Gouti doesn’t have the tools to put him on his back the way Bryan Barberena and Mickey Gall did. It’s going to be a striking battle, one “GT” is woefully ill-equipped to survive.
Never count out Northcutt’s ability to shoot himself in the foot, of course, but he won’t need to be firing on more than 3/4s of his cylinders to win this. He tears Gouti up on the feet for his third UFC finish.
Prediction: Northcutt via first-round TKO

[JIBBBY]

Funny, I would much prefer the events to be on Friday night or Sunday afternoon, as those are the times I am much more likely to be home.

Well Rich, I don't typically like to drink and party it up watching a UFC card on Sunday nights.. I usually have a lot to do on Mondays.. Need to be sharp and well rested.. Saturday nights I can let loose and chill on Sunday and recover .

[Shagdogy]

Damn. I already put my 4.5u in on Gordon at -225, then he climbed all the way to -270, and then today he got bet all the way down to -185 all at once. Hmmmmmm. Making me nervous a bit. I'm confident in how I capped this fight, but for Ferreira to move all at once that much does worry me.

[Richard Clock]

Well Rich, I don't typically like to drink and party it up watching a UFC card on Sunday nights.. I usually have a lot to do on Mondays.. Need to be sharp and well rested.. Saturday nights I can let loose and chill on Sunday and recover .

I am usually exhausted and busy during the week, so I usually give myself Friday night to rest. Having a UFC event to watch on my night off would be nice for me, but of course everyone is different!

[Richard Clock]

Damn. I already put my 4.5u in on Gordon at -225, then he climbed all the way to -270, and then today he got bet all the way down to -185 all at once. Hmmmmmm. Making me nervous a bit. I'm confident in how I capped this fight, but for Ferreira to move all at once that much does worry me.

The books panicked after my $20 bet on Ferreira

[ken10]

Damn. I already put my 4.5u in on Gordon at -225, then he climbed all the way to -270, and then today he got bet all the way down to -185 all at once. Hmmmmmm. Making me nervous a bit. I'm confident in how I capped this fight, but for Ferreira to move all at once that much does worry me.

Im worried about my Gordon bet now too. Ferreira is game. Just counting on the fact that he’s off the juice and long layoff

[Richard Clock]

Im worried about my Gordon bet now too. Ferreira is game. Just counting on the fact that he’s off the juice and long layoff

I will discuss this more in my thread tomorrow, but is there any concrete evidence that a long layoff matters? Like actual data?

[Shagdogy]

The books panicked after my $20 bet on Ferreira

How do you have this fight broken down? I think Ferreira's hands are a bit too wide/slow to do anything to stop or slow Gordon's pace. I think his TDD is pretty solid that he can fight the TD early in the fight, but with the layoff and the pressure of Gordon I think Ferreira wilts over the course of three rounds and spends a bit too much time pressed to the cage or on his back. I think with the pace, clinch control and TDs, and octagon control of Gordon, Ferreira will not be able to keep up. I think he will need to find a way to get Gordon's back for long periods of time, or get a submission. Gordon's tough to finish. Never been stopped other than from a cut, and he's been training at Renzo Gracie so he should be ready for the sub game at least enough to defend it.

Open to other opinions though.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Anybody have any thoughts on Sage Northcut against this Frenchy? I know Sage continues to improve but is he really almost a 3-1 favorite? We've seen Sage get bullied before and then sub'd out.. This Frenchy Gouti has has a bunch of sub's on his record.. 50 percent of his wins come by Sub...

UFC Fight Night 126 - Lightweight 3 rounds - Frank Erwin Center - Austin, Texas - FS1
Sun 2/18		1501 Thibault Gouti		+255	o1½ -135
9:00PM		1502 Sage Northcutt		-310	u1½ +115

Can Gouti survive Sage's early striking onslaught? Straight and sub odds for Gouti are fat anyways.. I'm thinking about it?

1527 Gouti wins by submission

+1040

On the flip Northcut has actually been winning by sub himself lately as well..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Sage-Northcutt-130911

1531 Northcutt wins by submission

+475

FS1 Main Card



Sage
Northcutt
"Super"
vs
Thibault
Gouti
"GT"

UNITED STATES
Country
FRANCE

9-2-0
Record
11-3-0

44%
KO/TKO
33%

33%
SUB
50%

22%
DEC
17%

72 in
Height
70 in

155 lbs
Weight
155 lbs

71 in
Reach
72 in

40 in
Leg Reach
41 in

I'm on both these props as well. Glad to see we're thinking some of the same.

[JIBBBY]

I'm on both these props as well. Glad to see we're thinking some of the same.

Yep probably goes one way or the other Hugo. A Northcut decision or KO blows it up though..

Northcut is not a decision fighter though yet, to young still as he usually either finishes in dominating fashion and or gets broken mentally and gives up the neck for a choke out loss..

[Richard Clock]

How do you have this fight broken down? I think Ferreira's hands are a bit too wide/slow to do anything to stop or slow Gordon's pace. I think his TDD is pretty solid that he can fight the TD early in the fight, but with the layoff and the pressure of Gordon I think Ferreira wilts over the course of three rounds and spends a bit too much time pressed to the cage or on his back. I think with the pace, clinch control and TDs, and octagon control of Gordon, Ferreira will not be able to keep up. I think he will need to find a way to get Gordon's back for long periods of time, or get a submission. Gordon's tough to finish. Never been stopped other than from a cut, and he's been training at Renzo Gracie so he should be ready for the sub game at least enough to defend it.

Open to other opinions though.

I will get go into in a little more detail in my thread tomorrow, but I think the long layoff is baked into the line, meanwhile I am not quite sure how meaningful that factor really is. Diego has proven to be a capable fighter overall (much better as a grappler, admittedly) only having lost to the very best in the division, while I think we may be inflating Gordon's abilities considering his UFC opponents.