[xagonzx]

On Connor-Diaz:

*Disclaimer: I'm a big Diaz brothers/Skrap Pack supporter, and dislike Connor, but respect him as a fighter*

I easily picked Nate to win the first fight if he made it past the first round, which was correct and McGregor looked mentally defeated at the end of that round (look at his face when he goes back to his corner). After the fight, I thought Connor would be smart enough to come back and would be able to outpoint Nate to a decision. I thought Conor had actually been humbled, and realized he wasn't invincible. But then he opened his penetrating mouth again as soon as he started training. Talking sh!t again, making excuses, claiming he's going to submit Nate blah blah blah. McGregor is so full of himself, and the obsession with Nate can easily mess with his mind. He seems more focused on trying to prove himself, but is going about it cockily again. He was even accused of editing video of sparring with the boxing champ he sparred with (cant remember his name right now) to make himself look better. Idk, I think Connor is mentally tough before the fight when he thinks he has the upper hand. But when it wasn't going his way, he crumbled. Look how quickly he gave up his back, tapped, etc. I definitely think he's capable of playing it smart, using his movement and kicks to outstrike Nate. I also think he's very capable of getting frustrated by the third or fourth round and begin just trying to headhunt, which isn't a great idea against Nate.

Bottom line is this is a very close fight, but i think Nate should be the slight favorite (he's the dog right now). People like to point out that Nate beat Connor on 2 weeks notice, but I feel like it's worth taking into consideration that Nate has been doing more TV gigs, commercials and interviews more this time around, and has expressed that it is distracting.

[Rich Benjamins]

I favor Diaz in a 5-round standup battle against pretty much anyone in the UFC. His cardio, chin, and punching volume are peerless. McGregor could steal rounds with wrestling I guess but I think Diaz has a good chance at outstriking him if it goes the distance.

A few bets to consider:
Fight Starts Round 2 (-225)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+105)
Fight Goes Distance (+310)
Diaz Unanimous Decision (+1400)

Thanks for showing those odds, Hugo. I don't want to bet on the fight straight-up, I would give it 50/50 and i only like to make bets that are in my favor. But I put a small bet on Diaz Unan Dec. +1400 is a huge return, and I think there's a good chance Diaz does win by decision. He's won plenty, and McGregor is training and preparing for a 5 round war. So I don't get the +1400.

[Hugo de Naranja]

On Connor-Diaz:

*Disclaimer: I'm a big Diaz brothers/Skrap Pack supporter, and dislike Connor, but respect him as a fighter*

I easily picked Nate to win the first fight if he made it past the first round, which was correct and McGregor looked mentally defeated at the end of that round (look at his face when he goes back to his corner). After the fight, I thought Connor would be smart enough to come back and would be able to outpoint Nate to a decision. I thought Conor had actually been humbled, and realized he wasn't invincible. But then he opened his penetrating mouth again as soon as he started training. Talking sh!t again, making excuses, claiming he's going to submit Nate blah blah blah. McGregor is so full of himself, and the obsession with Nate can easily mess with his mind. He seems more focused on trying to prove himself, but is going about it cockily again. He was even accused of editing video of sparring with the boxing champ he sparred with (cant remember his name right now) to make himself look better. Idk, I think Connor is mentally tough before the fight when he thinks he has the upper hand. But when it wasn't going his way, he crumbled. Look how quickly he gave up his back, tapped, etc. I definitely think he's capable of playing it smart, using his movement and kicks to outstrike Nate. I also think he's very capable of getting frustrated by the third or fourth round and begin just trying to headhunt, which isn't a great idea against Nate.

Bottom line is this is a very close fight, but i think Nate should be the slight favorite (he's the dog right now). People like to point out that Nate beat Connor on 2 weeks notice, but I feel like it's worth taking into consideration that Nate has been doing more TV gigs, commercials and interviews more this time around, and has expressed that it is distracting.

I have Diaz capped as (-180) straight up here. I think you make some great in the last paragraph. Sometimes a shorter camp is not a big disadvantage and Nate has been doing a lot of media.

[Rich Benjamins]

Yeah I'll have to look into that more. Freak injuries sometimes happen during fights and most guys seem to bounce back ok, i.e. Carlos Condit.

It looks like Oliveira's injury happened in practice and he didn't fully recover before the fight with Halloway. http://www.mmafighting.com/2015/8/24...ch-against-max

He claims to be fully healed now. So it looks like a good bet vs Pettis.

[xagonzx]

I have Diaz capped as (-180) straight up here. I think you make some great in the last paragraph. Sometimes a shorter camp is not a big disadvantage and Nate has been doing a lot of media.

It seems like a decent amount of fighters in recent memory have said it was an advantage, or at least performed like it. Nate, Bisping,Josh Emmett, Cole Miller, Alex Caceres, Lando Vannata off the top of my head who have either said it was a benefit or performed well.

If you have Nate at (-180), I assume you're loading up on him at +odds right now? How are you betting it? I'm always looking for input from good cappers.

[Hugo de Naranja]

It seems like a decent amount of fighters in recent memory have said it was an advantage, or at least performed like it. Nate, Bisping,Josh Emmett, Cole Miller, Alex Caceres, Lando Vannata off the top of my head who have either said it was a benefit or performed well.

If you have Nate at (-180), I assume you're loading up on him at +odds right now? How are you betting it? I'm always looking for input from good cappers.

Still working my allocation out but I'll definitely post it after the weigh-in.

[Hugo de Naranja]

It looks like Oliveira's injury happened in practice and he didn't fully recover before the fight with Halloway. http://www.mmafighting.com/2015/8/24...ch-against-max

He claims to be fully healed now. So it looks like a good bet vs Pettis.

From what I read, he seems to be okay and beat Myles Jury by R1 Sub since that Holloway fight although it should be noted that Olivera missed weight by over 5 pounds for that bout.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think Rustam Khabilov vs. Reza Madadi was cancelled awhile ago but wagers haven't been refunded yet.
http://www.mmafighting.com/2016/7/25...am-khabilov-at

[xagonzx]

Still working my allocation out but I'll definitely post it after the weigh-in.

Good stuff! How do you think the movement on this will be? My assumption is that the money will probably come in on McGregor (I feel like that's usually the case, although I don't have the proof). Not sure if i should take Nate at near even odds, or hold on to see if they'll get better.

Screw it, putting 2 units on him now, and will track the line movement.

[xagonzx]

I think Rustam Khabilov vs. Reza Madadi was cancelled awhile ago but wagers haven't been refunded yet.
http://www.mmafighting.com/2016/7/25...am-khabilov-at

Yeah it was cancelled. I'd hit up customer service, unless they're going to wait until the date that was originally set for the fight to void it? I think that may have happened to me before.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Good stuff! How do you think the movement on this will be? My assumption is that the money will probably come in on McGregor (I feel like that's usually the case, although I don't have the proof). Not sure if i should take Nate at near even odds, or hold on to see if they'll get better.

Screw it, putting 2 units on him now, and will track the line movement.

I'm thinking sharps will continue to lay down $$ on Nate and then casual money will come in on Conor for the last few days leading up to the fights and then a bit more after weigh-ins. If you like Nate, I'd out some $ down at his current offering (+100).

[Hugo de Naranja]

Diaz/McGregor Starts Round 3 (-112) is probably worth a look.

[xagonzx]

I'm thinking sharps will continue to lay down $$ on Nate and then casual money will come in on Conor for the last few days leading up to the fights and then a bit more after weigh-ins. If you like Nate, I'd out some $ down at his current offering (+100).

That's what I was thinking. I guess the quesiton I was getting to is do you think more money comes in from the casuals on Mcgregor or smart money on Nate? I personally think Mcregor typically mouths his way into believers and he has a big following, although Nate became a superstar after his win himself (always been a fan though). Side note, he opened a shop in San Francisco, where i live, like two weeks after he won.

I put 2 units on Nate at even odds right after my post. I'll be watching the line movement. Probably put another few units on it if he stays +odds at some point before the fight.

[xagonzx]

Diaz/McGregor Starts Round 3 (-112) is probably worth a look.

Good eye. Those odds indicate the fight ends before the third round 53% of the time, seems like value to me.

[Hugo de Naranja]

That's what I was thinking. I guess the quesiton I was getting to is do you think more money comes in from the casuals on Mcgregor or smart money on Nate? I personally think Mcregor typically mouths his way into believers and he has a big following, although Nate became a superstar after his win himself (always been a fan though). Side note, he opened a shop in San Francisco, where i live, like two weeks after he won.

I put 2 units on Nate at even odds right after my post. I'll be watching the line movement. Probably put another few units on it if he stays +odds at some point before the fight.

My guess is that it fluctuates a bunch but closes around a pick 'em where it's at now.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Some crazy fights there wow....
my quick analysis on those

magny / Larkin this is a true pick me fight imo both very good strikers , Larkin has the power and explosiveness and some great kicks , where magny has the length and cardio .. I'd most likely take the dog in this fight if the values right


garbrandt / mizugaki you gotta go with no love Ko/tko prop all day long here maybe even round 1 prop ?

cerrone vs story I keep sleeping on cerrone at 70 i keep thinking he's gonna get outmuscled by these bigger guys honestly, and Rick story is literally the perfect guy to do that in a 3 round fight.. I'll want to watch Weigh ins before this fight but I'd lean story decision at some Juicy odds , either way I think this fight goes 3 he over prop could have value to...

Opening Odds: Magny (-175)/Larkin (+135)

[xagonzx]

Opening Odds: Magny (-175)/Larkin (+135)

Magny deservedly the favorite, but seems a bit skewed to me. Thoughts?

[firekillex]

Opening Odds: Magny (-175)/Larkin (+135)

I was thinking magny would be the favourite but not -175 jeeze that's high , I was capping it at -135 range

I was leaning magny as well but at +135 the value is on Larkin there's no denying that , looks like I know who I'll be on now let's go Monsoon

[Hugo de Naranja]

Magny deservedly the favorite, but seems a bit skewed to me. Thoughts?

A no play for me at these odds. I'll have to find a prop. I'd bet Magny at (+100) or Larkin at (+150) but I think current line is dead on.

[Hugo de Naranja]

The only moneylines I like here are Avila (+110) and Uda (+150). Anyone else like these early lines?

[firekillex]

im seeing magny -140 at my odds site ?? i think magny can still have value at the decision prob actually, will have to wait to see the prop lines before any plays made actually


i like markos as well -170 i dont see her losing this fight , uda at +150 could have value to

[xagonzx]

The only moneylines I like here are Avila (+110) and Uda (+150). Anyone else like these early lines?

I like them both also. Avila has looked good, and Artem honestly hasn't looked UFC material to me. Only reason he's still there is because he's Connor's buddy. Avila making his debut, but i think spending some time with the Diaz brothers and going through all the press conferences with Nate can help a bit, as he's at least SEEN what it's like first hand, even not actually experiencing it.

I like Uda here. I'm cautious with him; I did bet against him against Collier. It's also important to note that he only has one fight outside of Brazil, and that was his last fight against Collier-- his first loss also. Just something to consider.

[xagonzx]

im seeing magny -140 at my odds site ?? i think magny can still have value at the decision prob actually, will have to wait to see the prop lines before any plays made actually


i like markos as well -170 i dont see her losing this fight , uda at +150 could have value to

I think the Markos (-170) is a bit too high. I'd rather be on her by DEC for better odds.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I like them both also. Avila has looked good, and Artem honestly hasn't looked UFC material to me. Only reason he's still there is because he's Connor's buddy. Avila making his debut, but i think spending some time with the Diaz brothers and going through all the press conferences with Nate can help a bit, as he's at least SEEN what it's like first hand, even not actually experiencing it.

I like Uda here. I'm cautious with him; I did bet against him against Collier. It's also important to note that he only has one fight outside of Brazil, and that was his last fight against Collier-- his first loss also. Just something to consider.

Won't be huge on Avila at these odds since this is mostly a fade of Lobov. I think Uda has faced the better competition and has more ways to win. It also helps a bit that he has a UFC fight and his opponent is making his debut as a (-190) favorite.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think the Markos (-170) is a bit too high. I'd rather be on her by DEC for better odds.

Casey is tough to finish.

[xagonzx]

Casey is tough to finish.

Exactly. Markos by DEC, or just the over would be the play for me.

[xagonzx]

Won't be huge on Avila at these odds since this is mostly a fade of Lobov. I think Uda has faced the better competition and has more ways to win. It also helps a bit that he has a UFC fight and his opponent is making his debut as a (-190) favorite.

I personally like Avila, but agree Lobov is fade material. Probably 1 or 2 units on Avila for me. The Over 1.5 is at (-190), ouch. I'll wait to see the odds for the DEC also.

I agree Uda is more well rounded and is the better MMA fighter. I am just cautious with fighters who don't have much experience outside of Brazil. Definitely has value at (+150) though.

[xagonzx]

Opening Odds: Magny (-175)/Larkin (+135)

Wow, this is already down to (-145)/(+105) on 5 dimes.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Wow, this is already down to (-145)/(+105) on 5 dimes.

Yeah it was actually (-120)/(-120) for a second

[firekillex]

I think the Markos (-170) is a bit too high. I'd rather be on her by DEC for better odds.

i always play the womens 3 rounders by decision prop for the most part, was just throwing the line out there for people
but yup definitely better odds, especially since markos is mainly a wrestler who likes to grind i see her winning a unanimous here hopefully get some decent + odds for that

[Hugo de Naranja]

i always play the womens 3 rounders by decision prop for the most part, was just throwing the line out there for people
but yup definitely better odds, especially since markos is mainly a wrestler who likes to grind i see her winning a unanimous here hopefully get some decent + odds for that

Worth noting that Casey finished Cristina Stanciu in R1 of her last fight.

[firekillex]

Yeah it was actually (-120)/(-120) for a second

larkin gets +150 or more im on him
other wise ill be going magny by decision prop, if hes anything under -125 ill just go straight magny then small decision prop

thats how ill be playing this fight after thinking about it

[firekillex]

Worth noting that Casey finished Cristina Stanciu in R1 of her last fight.

markos by sub could have value depending on the line maybe play that small then main play markos by decision if you think there could be a finish Hugo

[Hugo de Naranja]

markos by sub could have value depending on the line maybe play that small then main play markos by decision if you think there could be a finish Hugo

Possibly. Not sure how I'm going to play this one yet. Will probably wait for all the props to come out before laying anything down.

[xagonzx]

larkin gets +150 or more im on him
other wise ill be going magny by decision prop, if hes anything under -125 ill just go straight magny then small decision prop

thats how ill be playing this fight after thinking about it

I was just thinking the same thing basically!