[xagonzx]

markos by sub could have value depending on the line maybe play that small then main play markos by decision if you think there could be a finish Hugo

Possibly. Not sure how I'm going to play this one yet. Will probably wait for all the props to come out before laying anything down.

I think the ML right now isn't playable. Definitely hold out for props on this one, if you're going to bet it.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Wow, this is already down to (-145)/(+105) on 5 dimes.

Interestingly enough Nick Kalikas set the odds for this bout as Magny (-230)/Larkin(+170). Wish I had got Larkin at that price.

[firekillex]

garbrandt +100 tko/ko prop dropped

[Hugo de Naranja]

garbrandt +100 tko/ko prop dropped

I think we will get a bit better odds when 5Ds drops the full 20 props for each fight.

[Hugo de Naranja]

What do people think about Poirier/Johnson and Hall/Brunson?

[firekillex]

I think we will get a bit better odds when 5Ds drops the full 20 props for each fight.

hoping it gets to +130 but well see, i think its a high probability no love gets the ko/tko here regardless

[Hugo de Naranja]

hoping it gets to +130 but well see, i think its a high probability no love gets the ko/tko here regardless

Yeah that sounds about right. Guessing it drops ITD around (-125) KO/TKO around (+150)

[firekillex]

What do people think about Poirier/Johnson and Hall/Brunson?

2 extremely hard fights to cap imo
porier/johnson could be FOY potential , id lean porier but man thats a super tough fight to call both are super tough top 10 talents , porier has the momentum with johnson coming off those 2 losses even though i think he beat dariush ...

brunson/hall another super tough fight to call id lean brunson hoping hed be at + money since hall has the big name and has had problems with strong wrestlers before who grind in his face for 15, brunson can most definitely do this , but hall is dangerous and can ko anybody in the world so its tough betting against somebody so explosive, the + odds would have to be juicy enough for brunson

[Hugo de Naranja]

2 extremely hard fights to cap imo
porier/johnson could be FOY potential , id lean porier but man thats a super tough fight to call both are super tough top 10 talents , porier has the momentum with johnson coming off those 2 losses even though i think he beat dariush ...

brunson/hall another super tough fight to call id lean brunson hoping hed be at + money since hall has the big name and has had problems with strong wrestlers before who grind in his face for 15, brunson can most definitely do this , but hall is dangerous and can ko anybody in the world so its tough betting against somebody so explosive, the + odds would have to be juicy enough for brunson

I'm thinking about being on Poirier and Brunson pretty big, especially if either/both are dogs. I think Poirier has the potential to be the LW champ. I agree that Hall can KO anyone and that will likely be the hedge play, depending on odds of course.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Tossing a unit on Mizugaki at (+400). I think this line will come back down by fight time and Mizugaki definitely wins at least 20% of the time.

[xagonzx]

Interestingly enough Nick Kalikas set the odds for this bout as Magny (-230)/Larkin(+170). Wish I had got Larkin at that price.

Wow, those were set WAY OFF. I guess the line corrected itself. I would have taken Larkin at that price too. Anyone get in quickly enough at those odds?

[xagonzx]

What do people think about Poirier/Johnson and Hall/Brunson?

I would lean Porier and Brunson. I think Porier will be the favorite though, with Johnson coming off the two losses. I think it's a fairly close fight, so i might just take dog money in that one.

I think Brunson will open as the dog, and I'd throw a few units down on that all day.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yeah that sounds about right. Guessing it drops ITD around (-125) KO/TKO around (+150)

Basic 7 props are out for UFC 202. Garbrandt ITD opened at (-126) btw

[firekillex]

Basic 7 props are out for UFC 202. Garbrandt ITD opened at (-126) btw

ill have to check em out, id rather get the extra 20 with the tko/ko prop with no love i dont see him getting a sub, mizugaki has been caught before and cody has some great power/hands its basically go ko/tko +100 or maybe if you have hope in mizugaki take him straight up e definitely has a small chance hes a vet and has fought some tough competition

[Hugo de Naranja]

ill have to check em out, id rather get the extra 20 with the tko/ko prop with no love i dont see him getting a sub, mizugaki has been caught before and cody has some great power/hands its basically go ko/tko +100 or maybe if you have hope in mizugaki take him straight up e definitely has a small chance hes a vet and has fought some tough competition

I think if you snap it at openers you'll get above (+100), probably at least (+125) but my guess is closer to (+150).

[Hugo de Naranja]

I would lean Porier and Brunson. I think Porier will be the favorite though, with Johnson coming off the two losses. I think it's a fairly close fight, so i might just take dog money in that one.

I think Brunson will open as the dog, and I'd throw a few units down on that all day.

Would LOVE to see Brunson as a dog here. Hall is flashier but I think Brunson is way better. It is notable that Brunson has been KO'ed a few times though, including in the third round against Yoel Romero in a fight that he was winning handily until he got clipped.

[Hugo de Naranja]

The UFC has signed top women's prospect Alexa Grasso and she will be making her debut on the Mexico City card against Heather Jo Clarke.

[firekillex]

rothwell out .... werdum vs travis browne

no clue whyd they book this fight they just fought recently and werdum beat him 5 outta 5 rounds
prob be a no play since werdum will be the huge favourite maybe if brownes like +250 or more take a small stab since its heavyweights and anything can happen

[Hugo de Naranja]

rothwell out .... werdum vs travis browne

no clue whyd they book this fight they just fought recently and werdum beat him 5 outta 5 rounds
prob be a no play since werdum will be the huge favourite maybe if brownes like +250 or more take a small stab since its heavyweights and anything can happen

I'm thinking no play unless any of the following odds are really attractive:
Werdum -3.5
Werdum Decision
Browne KO/TKO

[Rich Benjamins]

I agree with your picks. Both Poirier and Brunson have been tearing through everyone. I'm sure they'll both be favorites.

I'm thinking about being on Poirier and Brunson pretty big, especially if either/both are dogs. I think Poirier has the potential to be the LW champ. I agree that Hall can KO anyone and that will likely be the hedge play, depending on odds of course.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I agree with your picks. Both Poirier and Brunson have been tearing through everyone. I'm sure they'll both be favorites.

My guess is Poirier opens around (-190) and Brunson (-150). I'll be watching closely for those odds to drop.

[firekillex]

I think porier will be around -140/-150 range and Brunson will be a dog around +125

also new line just dropped and I'm looking for a big play on it , Michael bisping -190 over hendo.. I think bisping is going to starch him here. Hendos movement is absolutely horrendous these days and his chin is shot all he has is that hbomb and I doubt bisping is stupid enough to get caught by it again , I'm guessing he batters him for 2-3 rounds then finishes him late

[TheCaliforniaKid]

Thoughts on the Condit/Maia fight at the end of August? Two very good fighters with contrasting styles. Fight has opened up as basically a pick em'. Any consensus in the forum?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Thoughts on the Condit/Maia fight at the end of August? Two very good fighters with contrasting styles. Fight has opened up as basically a pick em'. Any consensus in the forum?

I did a write-up on the fight on the first page of this thread. It seems like Maia early sub or Condit late KO/TKO if there's a finish. Draw and split decision bets for each fighter are also worth looking at. Also, some have suggested betting on Maia pre-fight and live-hedging Condit after Round 2.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think porier will be around -140/-150 range and Brunson will be a dog around +125

also new line just dropped and I'm looking for a big play on it , Michael bisping -190 over hendo.. I think bisping is going to starch him here. Hendos movement is absolutely horrendous these days and his chin is shot all he has is that hbomb and I doubt bisping is stupid enough to get caught by it again , I'm guessing he batters him for 2-3 rounds then finishes him late

Hope you're right about those odds. I think the best way to play Bisping/Hendo is Bisping -3.5/-5.5 and Hendo KO/TKO. Bisping minus the points cashes with any finish or wide decision and I see an H bomb to the chin as Hendo's only method of victory. Both should be plus odds so we should be able to profit either way.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Garbrandt/Mizugaki reminds me a bit of Swanson/Kawajiri. The overwhelming favorite has an exciting style and should get the win but the odds seem fail to give any credit to the crafty Asian veteran.

[Rich Benjamins]

Garbrandt/Mizugaki reminds me a bit of Swanson/Kawajiri. The overwhelming favorite has an exciting style and should get the win but the odds seem fail to give any credit to the crafty Asian veteran.

I think it's different because Mizugaki is a standup fighter, plays into Garbrandt's strength. Whereas Kawajiri had more of a chance because he does takedowns and lay and pray.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Basic 7 props are out for UFC 202. Garbrandt ITD opened at (-126) btw

KO/TKO opened at (-105) with ITD dropping to (-150).

[Hugo de Naranja]

ill have to check em out, id rather get the extra 20 with the tko/ko prop with no love i dont see him getting a sub, mizugaki has been caught before and cody has some great power/hands its basically go ko/tko +100 or maybe if you have hope in mizugaki take him straight up e definitely has a small chance hes a vet and has fought some tough competition

Would not be shocked to see Garbrandt get an RNC or drop one of the patented Team Alpha Male guillotines on Miz.

[firekillex]

I don't think garbrandt will go for the sub , he looks like he enjoys just landing hands even when the opponent gets dropped .. Alpha male definitely has the best guillotines in the game but 0 subs and mizugakis poor defense I think he'll get kod here.... If you want underdog value +725 mizugaki by decision



btw new fight announced and this one hurt my heart a bit..
ricardo lamas vs bj penn

cant believe they go from giving him bums like siver to a top 5 featherweight I love his determination and heart but this is just gonna be terrible , he's already shown he's past his prime and CANNOT hang with the top guys, I was all in on watching him fight some bums or legend fights to end off his career maybe a fight with gomi or stuff like this but fighting a beast like lamas is just a recipe for disaster unless he somehow found the fountain of youth or some Mexican supplements I don't see this comeback ending well for the legend bj penn

[Hugo de Naranja]

I don't think garbrandt will go for the sub , he looks like he enjoys just landing hands even when the opponent gets dropped .. Alpha male definitely has the best guillotines in the game but 0 subs and mizugakis poor defense I think he'll get kod here.... If you want underdog value +725 mizugaki by decision

btw new fight announced and this one hurt my heart a bit..
ricardo lamas vs bj penn

cant believe they go from giving him bums like siver to a top 5 featherweight I love his determination and heart but this is just gonna be terrible , he's already shown he's past his prime and CANNOT hang with the top guys, I was all in on watching him fight some bums or legend fights to end off his career maybe a fight with gomi or stuff like this but fighting a beast like lamas is just a recipe for disaster unless he somehow found the fountain of youth or some Mexican supplements I don't see this comeback ending well for the legend bj penn

Good points about Garbrandt not winning by sub. I sometimes decide to play it safe when the value for ITD and KO/TKO is pretty close but I can definitely understand just hitting the KO prop.

Lamas should starch BJ, whether he's motivated or not.

[firekillex]

Good points about Garbrandt not winning by sub. I sometimes decide to play it safe when the value for ITD and KO/TKO is pretty close but I can definitely understand just hitting the KO prop.

Lamas should starch BJ, whether he's motivated or not.

usually I stick with ITD as well since its mma and anything can happen, but with a fighter like garbrandt I think you should save the extra juice since he literally doesn't even attempt to go for subs or even to hit the ground at all, he's a lighter weight chuck Liddell in the sense he has good distance management and he has good wrestling that he uses mainly for defending shots and then landing big punches ... If the value was better I'd say go with ITD but Ko/tko is only +100 so gonna take that and run


regarding lamas vs penn I legitmately don't understand the matchmaking this guy gets, Rory macdonald, Nick Diaz, Frankie Edgar 3 losses in a row give the man a fckin tune up fight they had it exactly perfect with the Dennis siver matchup or even cole Miller , would've been perfect to gauge where bjs at then maybe give him a bigger fight, but throwing him right into the fire again I don't see this going well for him sucks that he's left home to train for the past year and going through all that IV bs to just come back and get absolutely starched and the fights all the way in Manila .... Trulely feel bad for bj here tough spot , hopefully he can complete the miracle but I highly highly doubt he gets the W here.. Hasn't won sine 2010 then he gets a top 5 FW smfh Shelby and joe silva

[Hugo de Naranja]

usually I stick with ITD as well since its mma and anything can happen, but with a fighter like garbrandt I think you should save the extra juice since he literally doesn't even attempt to go for subs or even to hit the ground at all, he's a lighter weight chuck Liddell in the sense he has good distance management and he has good wrestling that he uses mainly for defending shots and then landing big punches ... If the value was better I'd say go with ITD but Ko/tko is only +100 so gonna take that and run


regarding lamas vs penn I legitmately don't understand the matchmaking this guy gets, Rory macdonald, Nick Diaz, Frankie Edgar 3 losses in a row give the man a fckin tune up fight they had it exactly perfect with the Dennis siver matchup or even cole Miller , would've been perfect to gauge where bjs at then maybe give him a bigger fight, but throwing him right into the fire again I don't see this going well for him sucks that he's left home to train for the past year and going through all that IV bs to just come back and get absolutely starched and the fights all the way in Manila .... Trulely feel bad for bj here tough spot , hopefully he can complete the miracle but I highly highly doubt he gets the W here.. Hasn't won sine 2010 then he gets a top 5 FW smfh Shelby and joe silva

The curious matchmaking might be because BJ has a few fights left on a long and lucrative contract from his time at the top (not sure whether he does or not). Jake Ellenberger was in a similar situation where he got a big contract when he was a top contender and then when he started to lose Silva and Shelby continued to give him hard fights because his pay was still huge.

[firekillex]

The curious matchmaking might be because BJ has a few fights left on a long and lucrative contract from his time at the top (not sure whether he does or not). Jake Ellenberger was in a similar situation where he got a big contract when he was a top contender and then when he started to lose Silva and Shelby continued to give him hard fights because his pay was still huge.

i see what youre saying but bj penn is a big draw in a lot of markets and a HOF legend ... they could give him some average fighter like they first matched him up with ( cole miller, dennis siver ) makes absolutely 0 sense to give him a top 5 guy especially one whos super tough and well rounded as lamas , and a guy thats dangerous who doesnt really have the biggest name... bj literally has nothing to gain from this fight imo... ellenberger wasnt ever a huge draw so they probably didnt wanna pay 100k+ to a guy who doesnt really put any butts in the seats, apparently he was actually cut before the brown fight and he begged for one last shot and they gave him brown which 9/10 times is like sacrficing a goat to the gods but he somehow pulled it outta his ass and won lol, maybe bj can stop another sacrificing

wonder what the odds will be at anyway im assuming lamas -200/-250 range

[Hugo de Naranja]

i see what youre saying but bj penn is a big draw in a lot of markets and a HOF legend ... they could give him some average fighter like they first matched him up with ( cole miller, dennis siver ) makes absolutely 0 sense to give him a top 5 guy especially one whos super tough and well rounded as lamas , and a guy thats dangerous who doesnt really have the biggest name... bj literally has nothing to gain from this fight imo... ellenberger wasnt ever a huge draw so they probably didnt wanna pay 100k+ to a guy who doesnt really put any butts in the seats, apparently he was actually cut before the brown fight and he begged for one last shot and they gave him brown which 9/10 times is like sacrficing a goat to the gods but he somehow pulled it outta his ass and won lol, maybe bj can stop another sacrificing

wonder what the odds will be at anyway im assuming lamas -200/-250 range

It definitely makes more sense to match BJ against a fringe top 15 FW to gauge where he's at/potentially build some credibility for him but if the UFC HAD to match him against a top 5 FW you'd think it be Max Holloway as the headliner for a Hawaii card since that would at least sell tickets and likely give Holloway another win while keeping him happy waiting for a title shot.

I think Lamas opens as a bigger favorite somewhere in the region of (-350/400).