Im not to fan of betting fighters straight at such a high number, but this macedo girl, she just isnt ufc level at all. While AES is hittable, submittable, some of those defensive flaws she has showed happened in 2011, 5 years ago. She was tagged against Renau, but renau is pretty good striker as well, so i dont know how much stock you can put into that. She was hit by fallon fox also, but came back and defended several submissions and got the late tko. Macedos doesnt really master anything in my opinion, her heelhook from july was pretty much a rookie mistake from her opponent. Her fight against Camilla Hinze was the most lack luster fight i have ever seen.
I just cant pass this bet. I feel like its a borderline a mismatch. I do fully agree with you, womens bantamweight div is more or less a lottery, no rules, upsets and flukes all over the place. But this macedo girl, AES should smoke her. If she can get hit 40 times and still walk forward and beat fallon fox, and basically win round 1 against pennington and loose a close dec against mariion renau, then you have to believe AES will edge Macedo out on the scorecards, even if everything goes wrong.
But flukes does happen in MMA. If presented with a good hedge i may play Macedo inside dist. But she cant win a dec against AES, logically.