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Originally Posted by bjpenn85
#86 this bet. I agree with Hugo, agree with popular opinion. I dont trust his defence enough at this point. I will let the hedge ride on this bet though as i think theres a decent chance he KOs Santiago. Santiagos low hand and extreme of to taking punishment is a major factor in this fight.
Selective posting will never have the same legitimacy as 100% transparency. I can also post every time i win and not when i loose.
Its bjpenn85 100
Jibby 0
Jibby, probably loose a lot since hes not thrown out of most bookies. Only people betting large sums knows that you cant win 1500 dollars like Jobby did on 10 sportsbooks and then not getting restricted. So this weekend Jibby should be out of business. Or he has lost a ton of money, so that overall result on hes account are red, that way, he can still continue.
You cant win large sums on 10 bookies more than 1-2 times. After that youre done. You probably dont know thrilla..
Bookies have solid controll over all bettors/members, that way they can maximise their profits. There is no police, no regulations, its an open unregulated marked full of half ass criminals. I have a friend whos a poker pro whos best friend are one of the owners of ladbroks, he confirms it. That im thrown out of all bookies confirms it, AND i was just last week again restricted from having open parlays at 5dimes just after winning 800 dollars ONE ONE SINGLE 5 LEGGED PARLAY. Listen, one fakking parlay was enough. So do you think you can win 15.000 dollars without getting restricted?
Last edited by bjpenn85; 08-05-16 at 03:24 AM.
Adding:
2 units on Cummins @ 2.35 to win - 2.7 units
1.2 units on Cummins @ 8.19 TKO to win - 9.83 units
Originally a bet on Santiago, but #86 and switched to Cummins. I think Cummins is less active, but has a better chin, and a good counter game.Hes fully happy with waiting and counter. Hes inactivity is an issue, and that he can get pressured a bit. Its still worth a shot, and what a bonus if he lands that counter punch.Because my believe is that it will land at some point, the question is more if Cummins has the capability to finish him off, as ponzinibbio likely will fight back and do whatever it takes to avoid that the fight gets stopped.
Last edited by bjpenn85; 08-05-16 at 01:21 AM.
Thanks for the knowledge, BJ. But then how can someone become a pro sports bettor? Can you bet and win large sums in Vegas without getting banned? This guy, MMAMAIN, constantly posts bets of $50K+ on fights.
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/p...&sub=102300574
He claims to live in Vegas and bets in various casinos, primarily the MGM Grand.
You cant win regularly large sums on sportsbooks except on 5dimes and pinnacle? But the fact that im restricted on parlays, shows that even them, have an intent to reduce theirs cost by restricting me, so ill guess you cant trust them either. Pinnacle claim to dont care about winning bettors. I just met a guy whos winning a ton of money on different sportsbooks, he said he won maybe like maybe 50.000-70.00 dollars just last summer on unibet. I know his friends because he is a friend of my best friends little brother.
I was like what f...? How do you do that? And he replied: I use other identities. Never my moms or anyone in the familiy, but rather friends or perifer friends etc.
Its different with poker, because then the bookie win a % on every table. But we, we play against the house, and win. They dont like that.
Youre guy on that forum, ask him. Where does he play, on which sportsbook? And, make him do a printscreen.
Last edited by bjpenn85; 08-05-16 at 10:01 AM.
As I said, I asked him and he said he bets live in Vegas mostly at the MGM Grand. I dont think he bets online. So maybe if you're in Vegas, there's no limit.
But yea, I guess using other identities could work. But then if you get caught, the sportsbook could possibly close your account and take your money. It's probably a sophisticated system, and you have to trust the person who's letting you use their identity.
That's not good, last week 2 parlays for a total of $12.50 netted me $1025 although, I have made no intention of touching that money either, it will all be risked on 202...point of fact it pretty much is all on their atm minus a few hundred which I am using for parlays for this week and for 202. So far have not had trouble with them going through. Now BetOnline wouldn't let me parlay after my $2200 hit on Tate and Diaz, but they started again, now it's just hit and miss. Their rules indicated after that fight that boxing, mma, and I think one other sport were not going to allow parlays, but they do, it's like selective timing though.
Its weird not more people complain, it just goes to show how little people bet, and how little they win.
UFC FN 92 - Rodriguez vs Ceccares
7.5 units on cub swanson @ 1.33 to win - 2.4 units
2 units on Cummins @ 2.35 to win - 2.7 units
2 units on Chris Camozzi @ 2.8 - to win - 3.6 units
1.2 units on Cummins @ 8.19 TKO to win - 9.83 units
1 unit on Alex Caceres @ 3.55 to win - 2.55 units
0.5 units Cecares by dec @ 8.5 to win - 3.75 units
Event result: -4.3 units
None of the dogs hit. Small and acceptable loss here. The card was very difficult to bet all over.
Last edited by bjpenn85; 08-07-16 at 11:10 AM.
Adding:
2.5 units on Cub swanson, A.Johnson, Gustaffson, N.Diaz, Bader, Khabilov @ 8.42 to win - 18.5 units
Adding:
5 units on Nate Diaz @ 2.10 to win - 5.5 units (total of 10 unit)
1 unit on Nate Diaz dec @ 11.5 to win - 10.5 units
1 unit on Mcregor wins in round 1 @ 4.25 to win - 3.25 units
1 unit on Mcregor win in round 2 @ 7.75 to win back - 6.75 units
Isn't this actually -4.3?
I think this is a super smart way to bet this fight. I like the value on the longshot of Diaz decision as well.
Hopefully history repeat itself! I cant see mcregor finishing diaz, how can he then win? If he wins a dec for instance, i dont know what to say.
Hey BJPenn,
I just saw this, Pinnacle says they don't restrict or ban winning players: https://www.pinnacle.com/en/promotions/winners-welcome
I read the article. Wish more bookies shared the same view.
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FINAL plays UFC 202 - Diaz vs Mcregor 2
10 units on Nate Diaz @ 2.12 to win - 11.2 units
7.5 units on Donald Cerrone @ 1.63 - 4.7 units
2.5 units on Cub swanson, Nate Diaz, A.Johnson, Gustaffson, Bader, Khabilov @ 8.42 to win - 18.5 units
1 unit on Nate Diaz dec @ 11.5 to win - 10.5 units
1 unit on Mcregor wins in round 1 @ 4.25 to win - 3.25 units
1 unit on Mcregor win in round 2 @ 7.75 to win back - 6.75 units
1.25 units on Mcregor split dec @ 11.5 units - 10.3 units
Last edited by bjpenn85; 08-16-16 at 10:25 AM.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBLUKXorsYQ
One insane video. People got to watch this.
I like the plays best of luck! Anything other than the main event?
Not really. Maybe there are some of the rounds bet i should look into. I have been contemplating story/cerrone over 2.5 rounds, but im not confident as Cerrone may get a sub. Story does have a granite chin, so if cerrone doesnt get the sub the fight should go the distance.
Adding:
7.5 units on Cowboy Cerrone @ 1.63 units to win - 4.7 units
On paper, in theory, its a close fight. But is it? Think for a sec, let s say you like Rick story. What are you banking on happening a KO? Not likely. A decision? Maybe. A decision that will look a lot like Storys last fight against Saffeidine? What did Saffeidine do to Story to punish Story for grinding him at the cage? Nothing. I dont think Cerrone never will let the same thing happen. So fight starts, whos got the advantage standing? Cerrone? Whos got the advantage on the ground? Cerrone. How are Storys takedown, against elite guys, not that effective. But hes strong in the clinch. Hows Cerrone tds, pretty fluid. So if the fight ends up on the ground, it may be cerrone whos taking story down. Experiene and just about just every aspect of MMA goes to cerrone. I can see a close fight, but i can also see a ko or a submission victory for cerrone. However, i cant really see a victory for story without some fluky shit happening, like a KO or an injury from cerrone etc.
Cerrone usually loses to very technical fighters, someone that outstrike him on the feet, like dos anjos (2), pettis and diaz. I dont think Storys got the recipe to beat Cerrone. With that being said, we dont have any clear evidence in the UFC of neither fighter meeting the exact same opposition, so the fight its a bit interesting in that perspective.
I do like cerrone more than AJ @ -200, as AJ its bit fluky at times if he doesnt get the TKO, at least against elite competition in the ufc. Cerrone doesnt have the same flaws, and at -160 i rather want a guys with less flaws. But, a cerrone finish is less likely, so i understand the odds, but i prefer cerrone out of those two fights.
FINAL plays UFC 202 - Diaz vs Mcregor 2
10 units on Nate Diaz @ 2.12 to win - 11.2 units
7.5 units on Donald Cerrone @ 1.63 - 4.7 units
2.5 units on Cub swanson, Nate Diaz, A.Johnson, Gustaffson, Bader, Khabilov @ 8.42 to win - 18.5 units
1 unit on Nate Diaz dec @ 11.5 to win - 10.5 units
1 unit on Mcregor wins in round 1 @ 4.25 to win - 3.25 units
1 unit on Mcregor win in round 2 @ 7.75 to win back - 6.75 units
1.25 units on Mcregor split dec @ 11.5 units - 10.3 units
I like Cerrone ML, Fight Goes Distance, and Cerrone Decision although I think there's an outside chance that Story hurts Cowboy with a body blow and finishes with strikes.
Cerrones own opinion http://podbay.fm/show/1124228879/e/1...60?autostart=1
Bashing storys technique.
Result: + 1.8 units
Results since 7th. may 2016: + 32.8 units
Horrible horrible dec. I should have 20+ units from this event, instead 0.5 units. Is it rigged? i just dont know what to believe, its always....always not in your favour. Its not a coin flip, you know conors def going to win it if it goes to dec. spit/major dec prop saved my ass but, fakk..i should have 20 units from nate and then another fakkin 5 from cerrone...and am left with 0.5 units....its not fair.
Last edited by bjpenn85; 08-21-16 at 12:39 AM.
Nate losing the decision was a big swing for me as well. Managed to make a few units anyways. On to the next...
A bit of mis calculating there, still awful result in regards to the circumstances.
A guess a + night is better than a - night but this one hurt a bit for sure.
So close to hitting over 25 units, so so close.
adding:
5 units on Gustaffson inside distance @ 1.80 to win - 4 units
Im always a bit hesitant to hit inside props, as i continuously during my betting career so far has lost a ton a money on fighters supposedly winning quickly. Its a chance Gustaffson goes to dec here, but i really doubt it. Gustaffson usually finish fighters outside the top 10, and he also needs an impressive win after consecutive losses. Hes given an easy matchup to look good, and hopefully he will. The pole doesnt present any major problems that Gustaffson should struggle to get past, standing or on the ground. Frankly, this is a fight where he can let loose and go to town on blachowicz. He has 15 minutes to get a sub or a tko, my prediction is that he will, even if it comes late in round 3.
Not sure about this one. His opponent seems really tough. I might just stay away from this fight all together myself.
I will re-consider his toughness .
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