[bjpenn85]

Smolka is a much better finisher and has better cardio. He's a better scrambler and striker as well.

Didnt you have van zant inside the distance also? That was also a pickem.

Dont argue, just believe me, you wont win that battle.

[Rich Benjamins]

Didnt you have van zant inside the distance also? That was also a pickem.

Dont argue, just believe me, you wont win that battle.

I like Ray Borg. He moved to Jackson/Wink after his last loss. Fighters from that gym have been kicking ass lately. Borg has better takedowns and ground game, Smolka doesnt have hte best takedown defense, think Borg can work Smolka on the matt.

[bjpenn85]

I like Ray Borg. He moved to Jackson/Wink after his last loss. Fighters from that gym have been kicking ass lately. Borg has better takedowns and ground game, Smolka doesnt have hte best takedown defense, think Borg can work Smolka on the matt.

Yeah if anything, Borg is the one that should be favoured, not Smolka. But very few times, you should go for these type of fights. There has to be a significant strength/weakness factor to go off on. Very often, pickems are difficult to cap. Way to many people bet these fights in hope its gonna cash. Very few can. An example being Mike Perry vs Alan Jouban. Everybody was riding Mike perry.

As a rule of thumb. Do not go for pickems! Derek Brunson vs whittaker, large standup disparity, vanzant/waterson, large experience and technical disparity. Then go for pickems, if you just favour a guy to win, hold back. But people cant...

[Rich Benjamins]

Makes sense. You should only bet on a fighter if he has a specific edge over his opponent. Otherwise, you're just gambling. Better to have a string of wins and very few losses, then keep betting on 50/50 fights.

Yeah if anything, Borg is the one that should be favoured, not Smolka. But very few times, you should go for these type of fights. There has to be a significant strength/weakness factor to go off on. Very often, pickems are difficult to cap. Way to many people bet these fights in hope its gonna cash. Very few can. An example being Mike Perry vs Alan Jouban. Everybody was riding Mike perry.

As a rule of thumb. Do not go for pickems! Derek Brunson vs whittaker, large standup disparity, vanzant/waterson, large experience and technical disparity. Then go for pickems, if you just favour a guy to win, hold back. But people cant...

[Enkhbat]

any more plays bjpenn?

[bjpenn85]

any more plays bjpenn?

I have several leans, but i dont have any more plays.

Im considering magny,with hendricks KO as a hedge. Style matchup is bad for magny, but the weight cut and the bad performances from hendricks lately kind of sways me more towards magny. But how can you really favour a guy that is seconds from getting KOed every fight?

Some props:
-TJ dec/Lineker TKO
-Cruz by dec
- Fight wont start round 3 (Nunes/Rousey)
- Alternatively Magny handicap +180, Hendricks KO small

So many fighta on this card are difficult to bet. So Cruz in som pending parlays is the only large wager i have.

[GoBlue77]

smolka will win.

[Hugo de Naranja]

smolka will win.

I always like it when we agree on stuff Blue. Best of luck tonight!

[bjpenn85]

I always like it when we agree on stuff Blue. Best of luck tonight!

Yeah i hate it when the goblue77 ghost is against you.

[bjpenn85]

smolka will win.

I will probably start to care a little bit less about your opinion, because this one wasnt that difficult...

[bjpenn85]

UFC 207: Nunes vs Rousey 30th dec


Pending parlays

7,5 units on Francis Ngannou, Dominick Cruz @ 1.71 to win - 5.3 units
1 unit on Elliot/Johnson goes 5 round distance, Cain V. Dominick Cruz to win - 4 units

1.5 units on Garbrandt inside @ 3.5 to win back - 3.75 units
05. units on Garbrandt dec @9.76 to win back - 4.3 units

Event result: -5.7 units
A lot of people said that the speed of Garbrandt would cause cruz some trouble, alongside MM and benavidez. I didnt listen, and i surely did get my penalty!

[bjpenn85]

Event result on thread since 7th of may: +8,7 units

My goal for this year was +100 units. Should have been quite easy as i already in sept-ish had +65 units. The reason is a lot of square bets, but also incorrect sizing of wagers. Worst bets of the year was probably Stephan thompson, jack hermansson and anderson silva. Silva and jack hermansson alone costed approx 7-8K. I have tried to not follow a regular bank roll strategy, in it back clashed a lot. The whole year was basically ruined from betting large on 4-5 plays. If i only look at the units won, its actually my best year to date. I can make some adjustment and be vastly profitable with scaling down some of the main bets /avoid going for 2-4 k unit bets.

[getlucky2win]

Sayonara

[firekillex]

Sayonara

Smh

[Igor_1965]

Opinion on namesake's fight vs Yair?