[bjpenn85]

UFC 200 - Tate vs Nunes (july 9th)

5 units on Frankie Edgar @ 2.0 to win - 5 units
3 units on Ortega, Sage Northcutt @ 1.78 to win - 2.34 units
3 units on Miesha Tate, Northcutt @ 1.88 to win - 3.19 units
1 unit on Brock lesnar @ 2.50 to win - 1.5 units

Breake it down:

If you watch MMA youll know about a hard worker, a boring persona, that has a chip on his shoulder, with cardio for days and heart of a champ. Edgar needs to be knocked out in order to loose or else he will win a decisive decision. Look at what mark henry does. Edson barboza, killer. Eddie alvares -killah, frankie edgar -killer lipstick ki ki killah.

People are sleeping on a bunch of factors regarding the northcutt fight. Barbarena showed to be a decent fighter. Northcutt was sick. Northcut have already faced better competition and come away with flying colours. Upsets doesnt happen twice in row with the same fighter as a fighter tend to want to strike back after a loss. How did kevin lee look? Wonder why? Another example, did mitch clarke upset joseph duffy? "Oh love me some mitch clarke" - WRONG finish within 25 sec. Dont forget, this is UFCs little golden boy, they want him to win, therefor they gave him one of the worst fighters on the roster. Unbelievable that people are counting northcut out, baffled. Sure northcutt loses to a good fighter in the ufc for the second time at some point, getting grinded and what not....BUT to go from that to state that enrique marin IS THAT GUY? shut your f face. Common, are you blind?

Im betting on Brock based on two things. When brock wants to get a fight to the floor, he gets it. Can he hold Mark down? Probably. Brock is also free from disease and appears to be very eager to fight and prove people wrong. Those fighters, those who really want to win, these are the fighters i want to bet on. Dont fool yourself, this fight is still a toss up, so you cant go big. But Mark hunt will face a man that is significantly more athletic, faster and is a ground specialist, i mean, its not a good matchup. Brocks reach is also a concern for Hunt as he needs to close the distance, which is just perfect for brock who loves to power double in the same instant Hunt comes in. At some point Mark hunt will get badly beaten up if the fight ends up on the ground. It may be ugly. Or hunt may just KO brock the moon and back, you just cant know.


Results since 7th. may 2016: +27.28 units AKA 2728 dollars
1 unit = 100 dollars

[Ty$]

After watching Marin I Agree Sage will steamroll him ... Should.

[ufcfan2016]

ortega? huh? previous bet? i agree with those bets,

im going to parlay miesha tate along with cain.

lesnar +150 and edgar -125 for me also

[Mxs1332]

Keep it rolling BJ. I enjoy watching your threads a lot.

Picks look great. By Ortega did you mean Mousasi? Parlay would seem to match up.


Cheers and good luck to you!

[xagonzx]

GL. I agree with them all. Personally, the frankie-aldo fight is likely a no bet fight, although I've said it's either Frankie or Pass. Aldo has too many question marks for me, although he's obsessed with anothwr shot at connor. If we see the old Aldo, it's a close fight. If we see the recent Aldo who's camp has been losing hard after USADA, and who foolishly rushed in against McGregor, Frankie puts his lights out in the 2nd or 3rd round. Might throw a tiny bet on Frankie ITD.

[bjpenn85]

After watching Marin I Agree Sage will steamroll him ... Should.

Statistically gimme fights cash. I mean, where talking ..80-90% chance of hitting, maybe more. This isnt Conor vs chad mendes....this is oh we got this prospect vs the worst guy on the roster type of matchup

[bjpenn85]

Keep it rolling BJ. I enjoy watching your threads a lot.

Picks look great. By Ortega did you mean Mousasi? Parlay would seem to match up.


Cheers and good luck to you!

I planned on this bet month ahead. Their handing northcutt easy opposition. So i parlayed T-city and northcutt. For those who said t-city didnt cash, whats yo? For those of ya that said that northcutt is to green, watch hip finish this enrique kid within a round.

[bjpenn85]

GL. I agree with them all. Personally, the frankie-aldo fight is likely a no bet fight, although I've said it's either Frankie or Pass. Aldo has too many question marks for me, although he's obsessed with anothwr shot at connor. If we see the old Aldo, it's a close fight. If we see the recent Aldo who's camp has been losing hard after USADA, and who foolishly rushed in against McGregor, Frankie puts his lights out in the 2nd or 3rd round. Might throw a tiny bet on Frankie ITD.

I wouldnt waste money on Frankie ITD. Close fights are hard to call. No reason to loose money when youre on the right side already. The difference between aldo and frankie is very small. You thnk frankie will win inside distance because of the hype, you get swayed by public opinion. This will probably go full five rounds, just pray to god were winning with frankie. Dont be god and expect you cant forsee a frankie inside distance victory, in the long run you will loose by this strategy. Huge skill disparity warrants inside distance prop, small diff = pick SU.

[xagonzx]

I wouldnt waste money on Frankie ITD. Close fights are hard to call. No reason to loose money when youre on the right side already. The difference between aldo and frankie is very small. You thnk frankie will win inside distance because of the hype, you get swayed by public opinion. This will probably go full five rounds, just pray to god were winning with frankie. Dont be god and expect you cant forsee a frankie inside distance victory, in the long run you will loose by this strategy. Huge skill disparity warrants inside distance prop, small diff = pick SU.

Not swayed by public opinion. I am an Aldo fan, but he hasn't looked the same last few years. Injuries (always, but they take a toll on you), body looks softer, let McGregor completely into his head. I might be wrong and he might bring it today, but i wouldn't bet on it either. I said a TINY bet on the Frankie ITD before checking the odds. I thought they would be higher; definitely not worth it at the price I see it.

Bottom line is I'm not confident enough to make a bet on this fight. Frankie is ridiculous hard to finish, might take Frankie straight for 1 unit, just to make the fight more interesting. Maybe I'll take the over instead to play it a bit safer.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I planned on this bet month ahead. Their handing northcutt easy opposition. So i parlayed T-city and northcutt. For those who said t-city didnt cash, whats yo? For those of ya that said that northcutt is to green, watch hip finish this enrique kid within a round.

This is a showcase fight for Northcutt.

[Ty$]

I planned on this bet month ahead. Their handing northcutt easy opposition. So i parlayed T-city and northcutt. For those who said t-city didnt cash, whats yo? For those of ya that said that northcutt is to green, watch hip finish this enrique kid within a round.

I agree I got sage 1st round win +175
The under -105 and Diego by dec/sage by TKO parlay

[bjpenn85]

I agree I got sage 1st round win +175
The under -105 and Diego by dec/sage by TKO parlay

I was thinking about playing diego as well, but i have so many bets to keep track on i dont know if i want to make another one. When you bet diego youll at least get a guy fighting 100% to the last minute. Cant blame anyone to bet him in this spot. I think he will win.

[Mxs1332]

I was thinking about playing diego as well, but i have so many bets to keep track on i dont know if i want to make another one. When you bet diego youll at least get a guy fighting 100% to the last minute. Cant blame anyone to bet him in this spot. I think he will win.

Ha self admit I've trained at Lauzon's gym in MA but i'm taking Sanchez. I don't want to mislead anyone and be explicitly clear that I was not around during fight camp so nothing to read into here. Just looking at the match-up objectively even with a somewhat biased opinion.

[latarianmilton]

Ha self admit I've trained at Lauzon's gym in MA but i'm taking Sanchez. I don't want to mislead anyone and be explicitly clear that I was not around during fight camp so nothing to read into here. Just looking at the match-up objectively even with a somewhat biased opinion.

Never have been able to read Lauzon's striking well, it seems fine for moments but then completely falls apart once the opponents start making adjustments, not sure if Diego has enough in the tank to do what Dunham did, im thinking since he's a southpaw Luazon's jab wont bother him that much, the fight should be chaotic which is where Lauzon thrives but i still think he comes up with a smart gameplan and wins a close one.

[bjpenn85]

UFC 200 - Tate vs Nunes (july 9th)

5 units on Frankie Edgar @ 2.0 to win - 5 units
3 units on Ortega, Sage Northcutt @ 1.78 to win - 2.34 units
3 units on Miesha Tate, Northcutt @ 1.88 to win - 3.19 units
1 unit on Brock lesnar @ 2.50 to win - 1.5 units

Breake it down:

If you watch MMA youll know about a hard worker, a boring persona, that has a chip on his shoulder, with cardio for days and heart of a champ. Edgar needs to be knocked out in order to loose or else he will win a decisive decision. Look at what mark henry does. Edson barboza, killer. Eddie alvares -killah, frankie edgar -killer lipstick ki ki killah.

People are sleeping on a bunch of factors regarding the northcutt fight. Barbarena showed to be a decent fighter. Northcutt was sick. Northcut have already faced better competition and come away with flying colours. Upsets doesnt happen twice in row with the same fighter as a fighter tend to want to strike back after a loss. How did kevin lee look? Wonder why? Another example, did mitch clarke upset joseph duffy? "Oh love me some mitch clarke" - WRONG finish within 25 sec. Dont forget, this is UFCs little golden boy, they want him to win, therefor they gave him one of the worst fighters on the roster. Unbelievable that people are counting northcut out, baffled. Sure northcutt loses to a good fighter in the ufc for the second time at some point, getting grinded and what not....BUT to go from that to state that enrique marin IS THAT GUY? shut your f face. Common, are you blind?

Im betting on Brock based on two things. When brock wants to get a fight to the floor, he gets it. Can he hold Mark down? Probably. Brock is also free from disease and appears to be very eager to fight and prove people wrong. Those fighters, those who really want to win, these are the fighters i want to bet on. Dont fool yourself, this fight is still a toss up, so you cant go big. But Mark hunt will face a man that is significantly more athletic, faster and is a ground specialist, i mean, its not a good matchup. Brocks reach is also a concern for Hunt as he needs to close the distance, which is just perfect for brock who loves to power double in the same instant Hunt comes in. At some point Mark hunt will get badly beaten up if the fight ends up on the ground. It may be ugly. Or hunt may just KO brock the moon and back, you just cant know.


Results since 7th. may 2016: +27.28 units AKA 2728 dollars
1 unit = 100 dollars

Buy back on Jose aldo for 2,5 units. Kevin Lee makes a great point of jose aldos skill. Frankie hasnt really added a lot of skills that make a whole difference in this matchup, ground and pound and stuff like that wont matter. I still favour edgar but maybe 5 unit-favour. Its still a close fight.

[bjpenn85]

Final bets for: UFC 200 - Tate vs Nunes (july 9th)

3 units on Ortega, Sage Northcutt @ 1.78 to win - 2.34 units
3 units on Miesha Tate, Northcutt @ 1.88 to win - 3.19 units
2.5 units on Frankie Edgar @ 2.0 to win - 2.5 units
1 unit on Brock lesnar @ 2.50 to win - 1.5 units

[Hugo de Naranja]

Buy back on Jose aldo for 2,5 units. Kevin Lee makes a great point of jose aldos skill. Frankie hasnt really added a lot of skills that make a whole difference in this matchup, ground and pound and stuff like that wont matter. I still favour edgar but maybe 5 unit-favour. Its still a close fight.

It's not a bjpenn card without at least one buyback. Best of luck!

[bjpenn85]

It's not a bjpenn card without at least one buyback. Best of luck!

Its idiotic, but some of this fights are pretty hard to cap. Im never really done, constantly thinking. I think Jose aldo is better than we give him credit for. Everyone wants to undervalue him now, calling him shopworn, bad chin etc. Its one fakking fight. He beat edgar before, how much different is really edgar now? He is better everywhere, but his grappling is canceled right, so you wont see to many takedowns against a guy like aldo. So how much better is he standing up? Well he probably is more accurate and has better combos, but yeah, fight is close, so close that a its a split dec victory for either guy, may easily go the loser as well so. 5 unit is too crazy with such a close fight. You start of being confident, but as youre getting close to fight time, youre like shit..i actually have 5 units on a 50 /50 fight, why do i do that?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Its idiotic, but some of this fights are pretty hard to cap. Im never really done, constantly thinking. I think Jose aldo is better than we give him credit for. Everyone wants to undervalue him now, calling him shopworn, bad chin etc. Its one fakking fight. He beat edgar before, how much different is really edgar now? He is better everywhere, but his grappling is canceled right, so you wont see to many takedowns against a guy like aldo. So how much better is he standing up? Well he probably is more accurate and has better combos, but yeah, fight is close, so close that a its a split dec victory for either guy, may easily go the loser as well so. 5 unit is too crazy with such a close fight. You start of being confident, but as youre getting close to fight time, youre like shit..i actually have 5 units on a 50 /50 fight, why do i do that?

I'm on Aldo here but Frankie could definitely win. Thinking Aldo 49-46, 48-47 x2 but we'll see

[bjpenn85]

I'm on Aldo here but Frankie could definitely win. Thinking Aldo 49-46, 48-47 x2 but we'll see

Were going in to battle now. Fack this is good. UFC 200 motherf!!!

[xagonzx]

Its idiotic, but some of this fights are pretty hard to cap. Im never really done, constantly thinking. I think Jose aldo is better than we give him credit for. Everyone wants to undervalue him now, calling him shopworn, bad chin etc. Its one fakking fight. He beat edgar before, how much different is really edgar now? He is better everywhere, but his grappling is canceled right, so you wont see to many takedowns against a guy like aldo. So how much better is he standing up? Well he probably is more accurate and has better combos, but yeah, fight is close, so close that a its a split dec victory for either guy, may easily go the loser as well so. 5 unit is too crazy with such a close fight. You start of being confident, but as youre getting close to fight time, youre like shit..i actually have 5 units on a 50 /50 fight, why do i do that?

I Agree, very close fight. I think you might be underestimating that one fight with jose though. I'm just uncertain about Aldo's mentality a bit. Look at the guy's twitter/instagram, hes absolutely obsessed and can't stop thinking about connor. So the question is: does he let that get to him too much, become tentative (or vice versa, so reckless he gets caught again), and question himself (undefeated for what, 10 years?), or does he come out like a bat out of hell and a man on a mission looking like old Jose Aldo.

Frankie is determined, his team (barboza, eddie) have recently done great, and he has shown an outstanding ability to adapt and better himself in rematches before.

Should be a close great fight, and probably should've been the main event, honestly. I have 1u on Frankie.

[GoBlue77]

frankie aldo is impossible to predict imo. too close to call

[mcfugly]

WHo the fokk is ortega?

[bjpenn85]

I Agree, very close fight. I think you might be underestimating that one fight with jose though. I'm just uncertain about Aldo's mentality a bit. Look at the guy's twitter/instagram, hes absolutely obsessed and can't stop thinking about connor. So the question is: does he let that get to him too much, become tentative (or vice versa, so reckless he gets caught again), and question himself (undefeated for what, 10 years?), or does he come out like a bat out of hell and a man on a mission looking like old Jose Aldo.

Frankie is determined, his team (barboza, eddie) have recently done great, and he has shown an outstanding ability to adapt and better himself in rematches before.

Should be a close great fight, and probably should've been the main event, honestly. I have 1u on Frankie.

The knock on Jose Aldo is everything else than skill. Skill, he got that covered.

[bjpenn85]

WHo the fokk is ortega?

gracies call him "triangle city"

[bjpenn85]

frankie aldo is impossible to predict imo. too close to call

Very hard. Im a little bit afraid that i like frankie edgar too much. May be a slight bias in there somewhere

[GoBlue77]

2 months ago i was all over aldo, couldn't wait to bet him, as the fight approached i had to admit, damn, this fight is too damn close, i don't see value anywhere but good luck to those that do.

also a sign of a good bettor, if you can decide to cancel out a bet like you did with your hunt/lesnar play, more often than that its a good decision. i see guys take pride over money sometimes and refuse to change their position on a wager even when there are red flags, crazy odds change, etc. if you can't adapt in this game you're dead meat. good luck with your play. of course it does sting when originally you were right and you hedge out on a winner(you're orig bet), been there done that but hey thats life.

[bjpenn85]

2 months ago i was all over aldo, couldn't wait to bet him, as the fight approached i had to admit, damn, this fight is too damn close, i don't see value anywhere but good luck to those that do.

also a sign of a good bettor, if you can decide to cancel out a bet like you did with your hunt/lesnar play, more often than that its a good decision. i see guys take pride over money sometimes and refuse to change their position on a wager even when there are red flags, crazy odds change, etc. if you can't adapt in this game you're dead meat. good luck with your play. of course it does sting when originally you were right and you hedge out on a winner(you're orig bet), been there done that but hey thats life.

I agree. If youre able to adapt that will probably serve you good in the long run. Need to suck it up when youre seing that your original bet cashed, its worse having huge losses. Its as much about reducing losses than side with winners.

[bjpenn85]

Final bets for: UFC 200 - Tate vs Nunes (july 9th)

3 units on Ortega, Sage Northcutt @ 1.78 to win - 2.34 units
3 units on Miesha Tate, Northcutt @ 1.88 to win - 3.19 units
2.5 units on Frankie Edgar @ 2.0 to win - 2.5 units
1 unit on Brock lesnar @ 2.50 to win - 1.5 units

Event result: -1.66 unit

Results since 7th. may 2016: +25.62 units AKA 2562 dollars

Miesha cost me a bit. Very unnecessary. I mean, even brock lesnar made it out of round 1. How hard can it be? She was hit from miles away. But thats what you get when you bet on Miesha Tate. She is a fighter driven by will with pretty low fighter iq, i got what i deserved. Just because shes a champion, doesnt mean shes consistent.

I also let the frankie edgar bet roll when i had the sneaky suspicion hours before the fight he would win, hence why i bought back 2.5 units. I should have went the other way like i did with mark hunt/brock lesnar.

And Northcutt? Boy was i wrong. That kid sucks in every department. He is really as green as people say. He didnt even fight close to the level he did first fights either.

And brock, that i knew would get the takedown, i only played for 1 unit. Pretty weak stuff overall, ill guess on to the next haters.

[Ty$]

I'm on Aldo here but Frankie could definitely win. Thinking Aldo 49-46, 48-47 x2 but we'll see

Good call how'd you do overall??

[bjpenn85]

Good call how'd you do overall??

I think i netted around 1500 dollars through international fight week. It feels like a loss when it should have been close 3-4000 dollars. But at least i dont loose money. My goal is 3000 dollars this month, i think that is within the realm of possibility looking at the next three cards.

[bjpenn85]

Good call how'd you do overall??

I saw you hit lesnar by dec, thats pretty sweet. So how did your night end?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Good call how'd you do overall??

Basically even. Big wins on Aldo + Decision and Gastelum + Decision offset misses on Zingano, Santos, and Northcutt ITD

[Ty$]

I saw you hit lesnar by dec, thats pretty sweet. So how did your night end?

I play way smaller but I'm even also over the 3 nights... I'd be up 3-400 if miesha woulda have won and even more had Northcutt knocked that chump out in the first. I hit a bunch of small random parlays that saved me including. Alvarez/Gastelum and Lesnar/Cormier by dec parlayed ... Hoping to get up on wed

[bjpenn85]

I play way smaller but I'm even also over the 3 nights... I'd be up 3-400 if miesha woulda have won and even more had Northcutt knocked that chump out in the first. I hit a bunch of small random parlays that saved me including. Alvarez/Gastelum and Lesnar/Cormier by dec parlayed ... Hoping to get up on wed

Wed-card appears very difficult though. I generally prefer to bet high caliber fighter as they are more consistent. Whos consistently winning fights on that card? Olinyk and tony ferg? I havent started capping yet, but i think the cards looks very difficult to bet.