[NunyaBidness]

First week of february I'll be there. Then all of June, some of July.

[gabe]

Oh, I might be there then, too, my birthday is on Feb 5th... Let me know if you'd wanna grab a beer or somethin.

Man, this thread needs to die. Can't stand seeing my name next to his in the subject.

[NunyaBidness]

Might be tough as my wife will be with me for a vacation from our vacation and will probably require me by her side 24/7. If you can make it out in June I'll have lots more downtime.

[gabe]

Lol. The 6 figure lawyer is throwing around quarters like they're manhole covers while all these welfare queens are pushing in their stack on every play. I like it!

The good thing about having your hand in a lot of cookie jars is the swings tend to swing back faster. It's rare to have every sport kicking my ass at the same time (although last week they did just that!)

If you ever wrote a book, about anything, I would read it. Love your writing lol

[NunyaBidness]

If you ever wrote a book, about anything, I would read it. Love your writing lol

Now I feel like you're buttering me up for something.

Are you and Nick planning on beating me up in vegas?

[gabe]

Now I feel like you're buttering me up for something.

Are you and Nick planning on beating me up in vegas?

[MD]

Now I feel like you're buttering me up for something.

Are you and Nick planning on beating me up in vegas?

Of all the things I'd expect Gabe and Nick to do after smearing you in butter, that would be pretty far down my list.

[NunyaBidness]

Butter does not go well with bean dip.

[Vaughany]

Yeah? Me too. That's kind of strange. When the weather started getting shitty my mood changed & my gambling was not as sharp. Chandler losing to Alvarez really f*cked me up! After a bad beat or a bad card I just play this song and then like magic all of my woe's disappear.

Didnt you go all in not too long ago and lose?! Wouldnt tht be a 100% downswing?!

[ibetkellybro]

what a sick sick person Luca "fury" is. Gabe falls asleep says nothing on twitter, and child of Frankenstein starts talking so much shit about him. How did gabe derserve anyone to talk shit?

[Vaughany]

Gaberz power nappin for realz

[ibetkellybro]

I gamble far better with 12 hours of sleep, plus it is not healthy watching bets and sweating it out. Relax, and watch video later for study purposes only.

[ibetkellybro]

and i lost 70 percent of my bankroll on Nakamoto. Shit happens.

[NunyaBidness]

I gamble far better with 12 hours of sleep, plus it is not healthy watching bets and sweating it out. Relax, and watch video later for study purposes only.

Exactly. If you're not live betting, go read a book instead.

[PunisherIND]

Lol. The 6 figure lawyer is throwing around quarters like they're manhole covers while all these welfare queens are pushing in their stack on every play. I like it!

The good thing about having your hand in a lot of cookie jars is the swings tend to swing back faster. It's rare to have every sport kicking my ass at the same time (although last week they did just that!)

new years resolution is to grow a sack!

[ibetkellybro]

one this is for sure. Gabe was a great hire. Love him or hate him everyone checks his articles. I bet he pulls in crazy traffic.

[kid_mikey_84]

one this is for sure. Gabe was a great hire. Love him or hate him everyone checks his articles. I bet he pulls in crazy traffic.

Seriously, why is there an Asian Tranny in your avatar?

[ibetkellybro]

so there is a sherdog thread on gabe? does anyone on sherdog have a link? Vaughany? Wanna Bet?

[PunisherIND]

so there is a sherdog thread on gabe? does anyone on sherdog have a link? Vaughany? Wanna Bet?

luca tweeted a link but the thread was deleted.

[Beelzebubzy]

I personally like to wager on a number of props I see value in, often at big dog odds... I would have a much better record, as far as numbers are concerned, if I stopped recommending props. Most of them don't hit, but enough do that it's more than profitable in the long run.

so your 70% clip is down alot then?

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Didnt you go all in not too long ago and lose?! Wouldnt tht be a 100% downswing?!

I have been very fortunate with my all in's. I have not lost one yet. I usually go all in once or twice a year.

[NunyaBidness]

I have been very fortunate with my all in's. I have not lost one yet. I usually go all in once or twice a year.

It works every time until it don't.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

-5.5u in articles, including longshot underdog props including 3 FOTN bets...

-1.85u in twitter bets...

total: -7.35u (probably more knowing Gabe's lack of chartered accounting credentials)

I don't know where he pulled -20u from lol

Keeps spreading lies just because I didn't side with him after witnessing him stab co-workers in the back. Saying I had a bad night and went into hiding, when I fell asleep during round 2 of the main event... because I don't tweet every second like him means I'm hiding from my losses... Guy is out of his mind. He charges for his plays and had like four weeks of losers. My plays are all FREE. He has no room to talk, yet he does.

Anyway- Holloway/Chope over 1.5 busting parlays ruined my night. Biggest plays (Doane and Taisumov/Kang parlay) cashed, but I ended up making too many dumb parlays after hitting Doane and Doane ITD, and it ended up costing me. Would have had a huuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge night if Chope had lasted three more seconds before completely quitting.

Gabe, while this post was your attempt to explain the situation (and I fully understand the sleepy beauty excuse: the card was at a gawdawful time for west coasters and believe you), you end up looking worse off with your description.

Either you're extremely histrionic (read: an exaggerating drama queen), snakeoil salesman for MMAOB (I'll give you the benefit of the doubt 'cuz I think you genuinely intend to do well cuz) or still have less knowledge in appropriate bet sizing & bankroll management than my 5 year old nephew.

How can a single outcome make you go from having a "huuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge" night to a ruined one? And the SAME critical error happened JUST LAST WEEK with virtually all of your parlays being tied to Rousey R1(or the like) and Payan.

FFS, put down the bong for 1 hour and spend it reading up on what "ibetkellybro" means.

I honestly have the best of intentions for you with this post cuz.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

It works every time until it don't.

You are correct. Variance will always win in the end. Jones' broken toe. Kang getting 2 points taken away yesterday. Maybe I will quit while I'm still ahead.

[ibetkellybro]

Gabe, while this post was your attempt to explain the situation (and I fully understand the sleepy beauty excuse: the card was at a gawdawful time for west coasters and believe you), you end up looking worse off with your description. Either you're extremely histrionic (read: an exaggerating drama queen), snakeoil salesman for MMAOB (I'll give you the benefit of the doubt 'cuz I think you genuinely intend to do well cuz) or still have less knowledge in appropriate bet sizing & bankroll management than my 5 year old nephew.How can a single outcome make you go from having a "huuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge" night to a ruined one? And the SAME critical error happened JUST LAST WEEK with virtually all of your parlays being tied to Rousey R1(or the like) and Payan.FFS, put down the bong for 1 hour and spend it reading up on what "ibetkellybro" means.I honestly have the best of intentions for you with this post cuz.

Its called gabe criterion. Basically you take a lock (ie. Tsonga, Raiders, Payan) and tie that one bet into as many parlays as possible. It creates one massive correlation but this is the essence of gabe criterion.

[gabe]

How can a single outcome make you go from having a "huuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge" night to a ruined one? And the SAME critical error happened JUST LAST WEEK with virtually all of your parlays being tied to Rousey R1(or the like) and Payan.

Perhaps because I had that play in many parlays with huge returns, and they were all busted?

It was a dumb move, in hindsight, but I felt really confident in the play. Holloway is not someone who generally goes for the finish, and Chope didn't strike me as a quitter. Holloway had many chances to finish that Best Buy employee he fought, and he didn't do it. Only reason he finished Justin Lawrenc is 'cos Lawrence was gassed and quit. Thought this fight going over 1.5 had a very good chance.

And I guess the same did kind of happen last week, as I had Barnett confidently tied into parlays that were busted. That was the difference maker. Rousey ITD cashed, and Payan loss sucked but didn't hurt too much, the Barnett loss was what ruined my night.

This week I just made the parlays personally, though, and did not recommend them to my followers.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Perhaps because I had that play in many parlays with huge returns, and they were all busted?

It was a dumb move, in hindsight, but I felt really confident in the play. Holloway is not someone who generally goes for the finish, and Chope didn't strike me as a quitter. Holloway had many chances to finish that Best Buy employee he fought, and he didn't do it. Only reason he finished Justin Lawrenc is 'cos Lawrence was gassed and quit. Thought this fight going over 1.5 had a very good chance.

Gabe, I understand "how" but I don't understand "how the $%#&" you can let that happen. The definition of insanity (and of Gabe's criterion apparently) is repeating the same action and expecting different results.

Beyond a certain bet size, a +EV bet (such as the O1.5) has NEGATIVE expected bankroll growth because of too much risk assumed in a single outcome which is <100% likely to cash.

Why don't you ask Uncle Nick if you can sit on his lap while he reads you Kelly 101???

FFFFFFUUUUUUUUCCCCCCKKKKK cuz, I just wanna see you do well...

[gabe]

Gabe, I understand "how" but I don't understand "how the $%#&" you can let that happen. The definition of insanity (and of Gabe's criterion apparently) is repeating the same action and expecting different results.

FFFFFFUUUUUUUUCCCCCCKKKKK cuz, I just wanna see you do well...

My big parlays pay off enough times that I'm profitable, so have no worries. I was risking a few hundred, but would have cashed thousands if it had hit. The actual loss doesn't hurt, it's the idea of losing the potential winnings that hurts. It wouldn't hurt as bad if the fight was stopped at the end of round 1, which it nearly was.... but the fact that that there was only 3 seconds left and the dude just drops and quits is what rubs me the wrong way.

I've had a lot of busted parlays in recent weeks, sure, but I've hit so many big ones that the losses haven't yet come close to making a dent.

Hit so many huge ones for UFC 165 that I could continue to do terribly for the next few weeks and I'd still be up.

Last time I hit a lot of big parlays were for Invicta/WSOF, though that wasn't a great week 'cos I lost big on UFC.

[Sykes]

I dont mind Gabe at all. As a site owner I know how difficult it is to get a good writer who is really into the betting on this, guy is just working for a site giving out picks, should do less props though and just straight up bets , your units/wins would be much better. Luca on the other hand seems like a proper scumbag and it seems there is no limit how low he can go to make himself look good. The fact he made a name for himself on odds breaker then pulled away and made his own 'shite' site says all you need to know about him really.

As for busted parlays they do suck.

[NunyaBidness]

Gabe, I understand "how" but I don't understand "how the $%#&" you can let that happen. The definition of insanity (and of Gabe's criterion apparently) is repeating the same action and expecting different results.

Beyond a certain bet size, a +EV bet (such as the O1.5) has NEGATIVE expected bankroll growth because of too much risk assumed in a single outcome which is <100% likely to cash.

Why don't you ask Uncle Nick if you can sit on his lap while he reads you Kelly 101???

FFFFFFUUUUUUUUCCCCCCKKKKK cuz, I just wanna see you do well...

I really doubt Nick knows anything about optimal betsizing, he's said lots of things that indicate an amateurish level of thinking towards wagering.

[Beelzebubzy]

Crusher!!!!!!!!!

[Educ8d Degener8]

...
And I guess the same did kind of happen last week, as I had Barnett confidently tied into parlays that were busted. That was the difference maker. Rousey ITD cashed, and Payan loss sucked but didn't hurt too much, the Barnett loss was what ruined my night...

Let's not discredit Payan there... it was a figurative threesome at that event in which Barnett and Payan tag-teamed your bankroll.

But don't let these smarty-arty types deter you cuz, they don't understand the magic of parlays. You just hit a cold streak. You'll get it back.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

My big parlays pay off enough times that I'm profitable, so have no worries. I was risking a few hundred, but would have cashed thousands if it had hit. The actual loss doesn't hurt, it's the idea of losing the potential winnings that hurts. It wouldn't hurt as bad if the fight was stopped at the end of round 1, which it nearly was.... but the fact that that there was only 3 seconds left and the dude just drops and quits is what rubs me the wrong way.

I've had a lot of busted parlays in recent weeks, sure, but I've hit so many big ones that the losses haven't yet come close to making a dent.

Hit so many huge ones for UFC 165 that I could continue to do terribly for the next few weeks and I'd still be up.

Last time I hit a lot of big parlays were for Invicta/WSOF, though that wasn't a great week 'cos I lost big on UFC.

Jesus Christ. Talk about setting the bar low. You're a (semi-)professional gambler considering your involvement with the MMAOB website. Your goal should not be being "above $0", it should be making sufficient money to sustain a living (if professional) or a significant supplemental income (if semi-professional). And that means using all the tools necessary to get better at your craft.

Suggesting that you being "profitable" makes it A-Okay is like someone asking an illegal alien Walmart employee if they're getting paid enough money (say @ 50 cents/hour) to sustain a living and they respond "Hey, I'm not volunteering so therefore I'm in good shape."

Your justification is just a trainwreck to read through with anecdotal glory stories and footnotes of losses around said events.

You should be striving to perfect your craft. If you're not, anyone with rudimentary betting knowledge & knowledge of your personality should avoid tailing your betting advice at all costs. It may be beneficial to read your articles on MMAOB as your MMA analysis is respectable but your betting strategy is just a train wreck that keeps smashing objects in its path.

I guess if you're still making these rookie errors despite Nunya & Uncle Nick taking you under their wings, I'm just wasting my time. I truly want to see you do well but it's just becoming aggravating trying to help someone who refuses to help themselves at this point...

[ibetkellybro]

Jesus Christ. Talk about setting the bar low. You're a (semi-)professional gambler considering your involvement with the MMAOB website. Your goal should not be being "above $0", it should be making sufficient money to sustain a living (if professional) or a significant supplemental income (if semi-professional). And that means using all the tools necessary to get better at your craft.Suggesting that you being "profitable" makes it A-Okay is like someone asking an illegal alien Walmart employee if they're getting paid enough money (say @ 50 cents/hour) to sustain a living and they respond "Hey, I'm not volunteering so therefore I'm in good shape."Your justification is just a trainwreck to read through with anecdotal glory stories and footnotes of losses around said events.You should be striving to perfect your craft. If you're not, anyone with rudimentary betting knowledge & knowledge of your personality should avoid tailing your betting advice at all costs. It may be beneficial to read your articles on MMAOB as your MMA analysis is respectable but your betting strategy is just a train wreck that keeps smashing objects in its path.I guess if you're still making these rookie errors despite Nunya & Uncle Nick taking you under their wings, I'm just wasting my time. I truly want to see you do well but it's just becoming aggravating trying to help someone who refuses to help themselves at this point...

Gabe's podcast's are a gold mine though. If it was monetized I would pay 20 bucks a month for access to the rss feed. I'm not joking. That podcast is my number one musical listen for the month.

[gabe]

Jesus Christ. Talk about setting the bar low. You're a (semi-)professional gambler considering your involvement with the MMAOB website. Your goal should not be being "above $0", it should be making sufficient money to sustain a living (if professional) or a significant supplemental income (if semi-professional). And that means using all the tools necessary to get better at your craft.

Suggesting that you being "profitable" makes it A-Okay is like someone asking an illegal alien Walmart employee if they're getting paid enough money (say @ 50 cents/hour) to sustain a living and they respond "Hey, I'm not volunteering so therefore I'm in good shape."

Your justification is just a trainwreck to read through with anecdotal glory stories and footnotes of losses around said events.

You should be striving to perfect your craft. If you're not, anyone with rudimentary betting knowledge & knowledge of your personality should avoid tailing your betting advice at all costs. It may be beneficial to read your articles on MMAOB as your MMA analysis is respectable but your betting strategy is just a train wreck that keeps smashing objects in its path.

I guess if you're still making these rookie errors despite Nunya & Uncle Nick taking you under their wings, I'm just wasting my time. I truly want to see you do well but it's just becoming aggravating trying to help someone who refuses to help themselves at this point...

LOL Help yourself, "doctor" -

You're completely right though, it's stupid of me to make parlays that result in big $ in the long run.

I didn't say I'm "slightly" profitable with the big parlays in the long run, I said I'm so profitable that I could lose them for the next few weeks and still be profitable. Or did you completely miss that and just see what you wanted to see?

lol stop talking to me, doc. perhaps you forgot how this entire forum laughed at you until you ran away and stayed away for a year, and then starting slowly posting again. i was the only one who wasn't making fun of you, although i did admittedly laugh at the meme's they made.

anyway, my point is, YOU have no room to talk. so again, stop talking to me. please and thanks!