1. 09-26-11 08:34 AM #1
    gabe
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    Aldo vs Florian

    Am I crazy, or does Florian have a legitimate shot here?
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  2. 09-26-11 08:41 AM #2
    Pratik
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    Maybe slight but unlikely. Aldo far superior striker is quick and will probably finish florian. Florian needs to get it to the ground for a shot.
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  3. 09-26-11 08:56 AM #3
    Vaughany
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    Florian usually chokes in these kind of situations!
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  4. 09-26-11 08:57 AM #4
    Poppa Catfish
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    Every time Florian has made a step up in competition he has been dominated, I don't like his chances to reverse the trend here.
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  5. 09-26-11 08:58 AM #5
    Poppa Catfish
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    damn it, Vaughany beat me to it.
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  6. 09-26-11 09:11 AM #6
    rocky mattioli
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    at what point can florian continue to cut weight and still be effective?....i thought physique-wise he made manute bol look like the marlboro man vs nunes....

    and this is a big step up in class...
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  7. 09-26-11 10:02 AM #7
    Ewoi
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    Aldo dominates Kenny on this one. He has better striking and superb takedown defense. Only was Florian wins is if Aldo gases in the later rounds like he did against Hominick.
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  8. 09-26-11 11:53 AM #8
    kmdubya
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ewoi View Post
    Aldo dominates Kenny on this one. He has better striking and superb takedown defense. Only was Florian wins is if Aldo gases in the later rounds like he did against Hominick.
    Aldo was pretty ill in the Hominick fight. I don't think he gasses again like that.

    I think Kenny has an advantage on the ground, but it's only IF he can get it there. Aldo I think will be too quick for Florian.
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  9. 09-26-11 12:27 PM #9
    gabe
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    Hopefully he will have a nice size advantage that will help the takedowns. It's hard to picture a guy fighting at 145 who has fought at 185 and not being successful, but I guess Aldo is that good...

    Would Florian be able to beat Hominick? I think he would. I'd say Florian's chances are better than Hominick's, and Hominick wasn't exactly dominated in that fight.
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  10. 09-26-11 03:05 PM #10
    Chairib
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    IMHO if Aldo's healthy, expect to him to roll over Florian.
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  11. 09-26-11 03:58 PM #11
    Semt3x
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    Florian will never win a title
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  12. 09-26-11 04:46 PM #12
    Spaceman Spiff
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    I think Florian has the potential to make it a good fight like Hominick did, but Aldo should get the win.
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  13. 09-26-11 05:04 PM #13
    Vaughany
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    Although Florian might be the better all-round fighter than Hominick, I don't think that he has same mental toughness or durability that Hominick has
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  14. 09-26-11 05:33 PM #14
    Giblets
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    Maybe I'm crazy but I feel like Aldo should be more of a favorite over Florian than Cruz should be over Johnson (or at the least even). What do you guys think? An average of -280 for Aldo vs an average of -458 for Cruz surprises me.
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  15. 09-26-11 05:38 PM #15
    Kaladarus
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    I like Aldo here. I agree with some people here. I think -280 line is a gift.
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  16. 09-26-11 06:13 PM #16
    sirchadwick1
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    Aldo + Maynard parlay pays out 2:1
    I'm contemplating...
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  17. 09-26-11 09:03 PM #17
    Vitooch
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    Aldo inside the distance at -109 on 5dimes is a steal!

    Aldo/Guillard parlay is also looking good
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  18. 09-27-11 01:05 AM #18
    gabe
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    I don't know, guys... I would be happy to bet on Aldo for this fight, but my gut tells me it's Florian's. Gotta either go Florian or stay away.
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  19. 09-27-11 01:15 AM #19
    Vitooch
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    Quote Originally Posted by gabe View Post
    Gotta either go Florian or stay away.
    I disagree. I can def picture Aldo winning inside the distance. It is a fairly probable outcome with good value at -109.
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  20. 09-27-11 01:23 AM #20
    Poppa Catfish
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    What is the ROI on your gut Gabe?
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  21. 09-27-11 01:55 AM #21
    gabe
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poppa Catfish View Post
    What is the ROI on your gut Gabe?
    Definitely in the plus money! Not even close!
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  22. 09-27-11 01:58 AM #22
    gabe
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vitooch View Post
    I disagree. I can def picture Aldo winning inside the distance. It is a fairly probable outcome with good value at -109.
    I know you could picture it lol I could easily picture it too as it is the most predictable outcome... I just don't feel confident in betting on Aldo in this fight. Against Florian, and he's in the -200s... I would normally rape the shit out of that line, but I really do not feel good about it. Gotta be either Florian or no play for me.
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  23. 09-27-11 02:08 AM #23
    GunShard
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    I have Aldo in a parlay. I obviously want him to defeat Florian.
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  24. 09-27-11 02:19 AM #24
    Poppa Catfish
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    Quote Originally Posted by gabe View Post
    Definitely in the plus money! Not even close!
    I believe it. Still have no confidence in Florian in this spot
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  25. 09-27-11 04:05 AM #25
    gabe
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poppa Catfish View Post
    I believe it. Still have no confidence in Florian in this spot
    I have a couple weeks to decide if I'm going to make a small bet on Florian or go big. Gotta do a lot of studying, though, hope videos come up from both their camps soon...

    I really can't count Florian out in this fight, and neither should anyone of you guys. Don't include Aldo in all your parlays.

    What is the most probable outcome, Aldo trying to keep the fighting standing up and either getting a KO or decision?

    Kenny's stand-up keeps improving. He's a great boxer. He's got a good chance of phasing Aldo with a solid hook then taking him down for some ground and pound. He is going to get to deliver his signature elbows in this fight.

    I will guarantee you this, the winner of this fight, regardless of who, is gonna be a solid lock to win his next fight. You heard it right; "guarantee" and "lock" in the same sentence. I would bet the farm and all the animals in it on that fight.
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  26. 09-27-11 04:14 AM #26
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by gabe View Post
    I have a couple weeks to decide if I'm going to make a small bet on Florian or go big. Gotta do a lot of studying, though, hope videos come up from both their camps soon...

    I really can't count Florian out in this fight, and neither should anyone of you guys. Don't include Aldo in all your parlays.

    What is the most probable outcome, Aldo trying to keep the fighting standing up and either getting a KO or decision?

    Kenny's stand-up keeps improving. He's a great boxer. He's got a good chance of phasing Aldo with a solid hook then taking him down for some ground and pound. He is going to get to deliver his signature elbows in this fight.

    I will guarantee you this, the winner of this fight, regardless of who, is gonna be a solid lock to win his next fight. You heard it right; "guarantee" and "lock" in the same sentence. I would bet the farm and all the animals in it on that fight.
    What do you mean a "solid lock" to win his next fight?! How can you say that when you don't know who their next fight is against!?
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  27. 09-27-11 04:19 AM #27
    Poppa Catfish
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    ...... or the circumstances around the fight, the winner could get injured during this fight or in training camp for the upcoming solid lock fight and thus forced to come off a real long lay off.

    You are going to need to explain yourself here, and it better be a force more powerful than your gut, like a dream or something
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  28. 09-27-11 10:38 AM #28
    Educ8d Degener8
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    Quote Originally Posted by gabe View Post
    ...
    I will guarantee you this, the winner of this fight, regardless of who, is gonna be a solid lock to win his next fight. You heard it right; "guarantee" and "lock" in the same sentence. I would bet the farm and all the animals in it on that fight.
    Dismissing Money Mendes already are you?
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  29. 09-27-11 10:43 AM #29
    sirchadwick1
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    What do you mean a "solid lock" to win his next fight?! How can you say that when you don't know who their next fight is against!?
    Losing credibility every day...
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  30. 09-27-11 10:55 AM #30
    Vaughany
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    For all you know Frankie Edgar may lose to Maynard then drop down to 145 and fight Florian or Aldo
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  31. 09-27-11 11:41 AM #31
    gabe
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    What do you mean a "solid lock" to win his next fight?! How can you say that when you don't know who their next fight is against!?
    Because there is NOBODY in the division I could see beating any of these two guys. They will both CHEW UP Erik Koch and SPIT him back out. If Aldo beats Florian, he is not losing to a lesser opponent next, and if Florian beats Aldo, he surely isn't losing his first title defense to a MUCH lesser opponent than Aldo.

    It didn't matter to me who Jon Jones and Anderson Silva fought in their last matches, I could have told you they were going to win their next fights before their opponents were announced, just like I know they are going to win their next 2, as well. I would blindly bet on the next Silva fight, on Jones over Rashad, and on the winner of Aldo/Florian vs Koch/whoever.
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  32. 09-27-11 11:42 AM #32
    gabe
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    For all you know Frankie Edgar may lose to Maynard then drop down to 145 and fight Florian or Aldo
    That won't happen, they won't give him a title shot for his first fight.
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  33. 09-27-11 12:12 PM #33
    Ewoi
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    I think Chad Mendes can outwrestle Kenny if they ever fight. There are also some guys in Bellator that can be contenders in the future (Curran, Pitbull Freire, Sandro is solid, maybe Joe Soto).

    Kenny is an easy guy to figure out. His stand-up is good but Diego Nunes dropped him twice in their fight. He got out wrestled by Sherk and Maynard in the same fashion. His top game is very good but all he does is throw elbows when on his back, BJ submitted him easily when he got Kenny down. I think you are overrating Florian too much. I see Aldo having an advantage in all aspects of fighting, except probably conditioning and cardio but remember this is not Kenny's natural weight (he cuts a ton to make 145).
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  34. 09-27-11 12:35 PM #34
    gabe
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ewoi View Post
    I think Chad Mendes can outwrestle Kenny if they ever fight. There are also some guys in Bellator that can be contenders in the future (Curran, Pitbull Freire, Sandro is solid, maybe Joe Soto).

    Kenny is an easy guy to figure out. His stand-up is good but Diego Nunes dropped him twice in their fight. He got out wrestled by Sherk and Maynard in the same fashion. His top game is very good but all he does is throw elbows when on his back, BJ submitted him easily when he got Kenny down. I think you are overrating Florian too much. I see Aldo having an advantage in all aspects of fighting, except probably conditioning and cardio but remember this is not Kenny's natural weight (he cuts a ton to make 145).
    No, I'm not over-rating him, I'm not saying he's unbelievable, I'm saying he's got a CHANCE... and that's all, a CHANCE... to beat Aldo... and if he does, I believe he will win his first title defense... Not saying he will go undefeated as a Featherweight champ, because Aldo would probably take him down in a re-match.

    I'm not using much of my mind on this, mostly gut feeling. I feel Florian has a chance to win, but not a big chance, and regardless of who wins, will win their next match. It would be great if the fight would be against Mendes instead of Koch, because the lines would be in our favor. The line on Aldo in that fight might be a gift, although the line on him in this fight is a gift, too, but I just don't feel confident betting it. If I'm betting on Aldo, I gotta feel confident.
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  35. 09-27-11 12:44 PM #35
    gabe
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    Man, I would LOVE a match-up between Erik Koch and Chad Mendes for the #1 contendership... Mendes would really be MONEY MENDES in that fight... especially coming off that poor performance against Jonathan Brookins, I would really want to go all in on Mendes.
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