[H1Cypher]

May 28th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold)
Philadelphia Phillies -135 vs New York Mets +125 to win 3 units

Phillies are like easy money right? I mean their pitcher has lost one start or something by the looks of it. Looks like easy money to me. I'll do the evening games tomorrow.

Went 2-0 yesterday on May 27th.

MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
My Record 44-56 +/-: -33.045u

Fade Record with Moneyline dogs fading my amount rather than +1 or +1.5 as the fade bet: 56-44 +29.192 units
Fade Record Playing Opposite me with Runline +1 or +1.5:56-44 fade +/-: +28.335 units (only when i play runlines otherwise ML fade)

Flat Bet Fading my MLB picks on the moneyline 1 unit per pick: 56-44 +22.28u

[H1Cypher]

May 28th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold)
LA Dodgers -136 vs New York Yankees +126 to win 2 units

That's it just going with 2 picks today.

Todays dog of the day is:
San Fransisco Giants +110 vs Arizona Diamondbacks -120

Underdog Picks record: 0-2 -2 units

[ColdBeerHere]

Dodgers are playing Milwaukee and Yanks are playin' Angels...think you got a typo

edit: what's the deal with your a dog of the day ? Is that a play that should be faded too ? thanks

[TheBeastMode]

Dodgers are playing Milwaukee and Yanks are playin' Angels...think you got a typo

edit: what's the deal with your a dog of the day ? Is that a play that should be faded too ? thanks

LA Angels-136 vs New York Yankees +126 to win 2 units

Fade all H1Cypher plays.

[H1Cypher]

LA Angels-136 vs New York Yankees +126 to win 2 units

Fade all H1Cypher plays.

Oops yeah It was the Angels the odds and team vs were the same as Angels vs Yankees. I just had a brain fart and put Dodgers. Dodgers odds weren't close to -136.

As far as the dogs of the day I'm not sure how those will do. I wouldn't fade all the dog picks myself won't be as profitable unless I'm several %s below my record picking chalk. Your choice though.

Looks like I'm gonna win again I don't think the Angels are gonna lose- they look like they are streaking and getting to the level they should be(i dont watch mlb but all those espn pre game write ups lol). I won 4 in a row and I think the Angels are gonna put a beating on this team too. Hopefully no one faded for the first time with out the cushion of my previous losing picks.

[H1Cypher]

MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold)
Philadelphia Phillies -135 vs New York Mets +125 to win 3 units
LA Angels -136 vs New York Yankees +126 to win 2 units

Ouch close game there in the end both teams with plenty of opportunities by the looks of the boxscore(I check the boxscore at the end of the day mostly out of curiousity). Looks like the starting pitcher for the Angels even went out in the 1st and the Yankees could not overcome that. My assessment was on point this time =p.

+5 units for me on May 28th.
-5 units fading to my amount.
-2 flat fading.

MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
My Record 46-56 +/-: -28.045u

Fade Record with Moneyline dogs fading my amount rather than +1 or +1.5 as the fade bet: 56-46 +24.192 units
Fade Record Playing Opposite me with Runline +1 or +1.5:56-46 fade +/-: +23.335 units (only when i play runlines otherwise ML fade)

Flat Bet Fading my MLB picks on the moneyline 1 unit per pick: 56-46 +20.28u


May 29th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):

Detroit Tigers -151 vs Boston Red Sox +141 to win 2 units
Tampa Bay Rays -154 vs Chicago White Sox +144 to win 1 unit

I might be in the middle of a streak. Everything is in my favor here, espn pre game accuscore has the Tigers 68% over 1,000 simulations. The write up is on the Tigers. I have the pitching advantage apparently with Verlander, and the Red Sox just lost a player supposedly an important one according to the write up... what was his name, Dustin Pedroia. Anyway, fade at your own risk other than the Tigers struggling and under achieving(Espn pre game has given me the impression this team should have more wins than they do, reading about them daily).

Same for the Rays Accuscore, pitchers, everything seems in my favor except the write up espn pre game write up is neutral towards who will win.

I'll come with the evening game later in the day.

[H1Cypher]

May 29th:
Todays dogs of the day are:
Pittsburgh Pirates +112 vs Cincinatti Reds -122
Washington Nationals +131 vs MIami Marlins -141

I would just like to track progress on how I would be playing under dogs based on the espn pre game write up vs chalk. Same picking method just with out the restriction of having to stick to chalk I have to stick to dogs which fading over the long run won't be profitable in my opinion but let's see. I had other dogs in mind in the morning and if the lines didn't move I'd have ended playing like 5+ dogs today.


Todays dog of the day is:
San Fransisco Giants +110 vs Arizona Diamondbacks -120

Underdog Picks record: 1-2 -.9 units

[H1Cypher]

May 29th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
Detroit Tigers -151 vs Boston Red Sox +141(+145) to win 2 units
Tampa Bay Rays -154 vs Chicago White Sox +144(+152) to win 1 unit

Man was confident about these oh well. I really felt like the Rays would bring a win home but ESPN loved the Tigers thats why I made it 2 units, didn't see myself losing both lol. If you faded yesterday this more than makes up for it =p. Dogs of the day also went 0-2.

I put these up at 4:45 ish am pac time. For over 7 hours I see +155, and at other books I see over 5 hour window with it at +152 so I'm gonna record as that. From 11 am to 7 pm you could have got it easily between 152 and 155 or better for the Sox. For the Tigers Red Sox I see a mixture of +145 and +150 I could count either but to keep it fair I'll count the low number +145 even though +150 was easy to get. When I post it like 2 hours before the game starts I count my odds posted but when I do it long before the day starts I post what is up between 12 and 5 ish after noon time.

I lose -1.54u and -3.08 units for me(my odds when I posted it). I lose 4.62units

Fading to my amount +1.52u +2.9u = +4.42u +24.192 = 28.612

Flat bet fading goes: 1.52 + 1.45 = +2.97 units +20.28u =

MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
My Record 46-58 +/-: -32.665u

Fade Record with Moneyline dogs fading my amount rather than +1 or +1.5 as the fade bet: 58-46 +28.612 units
Fade Record Playing Opposite me with Runline +1 or +1.5:58-46 fade +/-: +27.755 units (only when i play runlines otherwise ML fade)

Flat Bet Fading my MLB picks on the moneyline 1 unit per pick: 58-46 +23.25u

[H1Cypher]

May 30th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold)
Cincinatti Reds -125 vs Pittsburgh Pirates +115 to win 1.5 units.

No write up so I just read the ones at mlb.com. Nothing I really like today might come with another one. Was no write up but I just read it and adding this in my edit. The write up is on the Reds hard, their pitcher Cueto has a good track record against the Pirates, outhitting opponents, winning 4th straight series, one of best teams in the league at the moment, etc. blah blah blah. Should probably make this more than 1.5 units but I dunno just not one of my favorite teams like the Rays for some reason.

I like a few dogs today. I don't expect to win more than 50% but the - shouldn't be as bad cause i'm playing dogs. Just tracking these gonna play alot expect more erratic results than with the chalk plays.

May 29th:
Todays dogs of the day are:
Pittsburgh Pirates +112 vs Cincinatti Reds -122
Washington Nationals +131 vs MIami Marlins -141

Underdog Picks record: 1-4 -2.9 units

May 30th:
Dogs of the day:
Detroit Tigers +120 vs Boston Red Sox -130
Oakland Athletics +107 vs Minnesota Twins -117

Edit: Changing my unit amount from 1 unit to 1.5 units.

[EXhoosier10]

This thread is epic, dude. Sorry to see you losing money, though.

[Hectorcist]

Gonna start following your thread!

[whtsox13]

Interesting thread! I get that we are to fade your picks, but don't get what to do with the "dogs of the day"--fade? pick?

[H1Cypher]

Interesting thread! I get that we are to fade your picks, but don't get what to do with the "dogs of the day"--fade? pick?

Well from a strictly mathematical standpoint it can never be as profitable to fade those picks unless I am several percentage points below 45% I'd have to be a 43% capper of under dogs to make it profitable enough to fade me(meaning you would be playing chalk).

My Fade Plays usually have you playing underdogs, only 12 games above .500 fading and still up 23 units just betting flat fading 1 unit per pick because of all the + money.

I don't have the answer since my sample size is 1W-5L right now with the Athletics losing. Too small to come to a general idea. So my personal opinion would be no. I also would think there are plenty of people out there in baseball who should at least be 56% playing all this chalk in mlb. So like I said before it's' your choice.

[H1Cypher]

This thread is epic, dude. Sorry to see you losing money, though.

It's all good. Read post #1 of my thread =). I agree though this thread is epic .

May 30th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold)
Cincinatti Reds -125 vs Pittsburgh Pirates +115(+111) to win 1.5 units.

I drop 2.75 units on the Reds.
Fading to my amount I will count as +111 I see a mixture of mostly 110 through 115 depending on the book and the easiest number to get was +111 there were a couple of hours at +110 and 109 but alot of hours with +110 and better.

+1.665u fading to my amount +28.612 =

Flat bet fade goes +1.11u +23.25u =

MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
My Record 46-59 +/-: -35.415u

Fade Record with Moneyline dogs fading my amount rather than +1 or +1.5 as the fade bet: 59-46 +30.277 units
Fade Record Playing Opposite me with Runline +1 or +1.5:59-46 fade +/-: +29.42 units (only when i play runlines otherwise ML fade)

Flat Bet Fading my MLB picks on the moneyline 1 unit per pick: 59-46 +24.36u


May 30th:
Dogs of the day:
Detroit Tigers +120 vs Boston Red Sox -130
Oakland Athletics +107 vs Minnesota Twins -117

Underdog Picks record: 1-6 -4.9 units
Flat Bet Fade Tracker to win 1 unit per pick: 6-1 +4.8 units

Now that I'm 1-6 to start my underdogs it's looking like had anyone faded those picks they would already be enjoying a nice cushion just like in my MLB Fade Plays. I didn't expect to get off to a 1-6 run though =p. Was thinking more along the lines of 3-4 or something like that lol. If anyone is curious I'll add a fade tracker since it's easy to do. What do ya think I go for my next 7 picks?

Just a brief recap since I was 37-45 I've went 9-14 in my next 23 selections.
9-14 In my last 23 picks that 39% playing favorites(fading would mean 61% playing unerdogs lol). If anyone was fading all the picks like BeastMode suggested he's been doing they would be 20-10 lol..... that means I was 10-20 over my last 30 =p.

I think I'm gonna win 2 in a row at some point though, soon maybe =p. I'll say this much I'm quickly becoming one of the best fades on the forum in MLB. Go look at the service plays section I'm a better fade than Lang by far and I'm not sure about Hondo since his record isn't posted but it looks like I'm as good if not a better fade than him as well.

[TheBeastMode]

Not sure if I should say "Good Job", but how bout a

[H1Cypher]

June 1st:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold)
Toronto Blue Jays -111 vs Boston Red Sox +101 to win 2 units

Just this one according to ESPN, I'm a bit troubled by Bucholz going 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs this team but with the assistance of ESPN pre game write up I'm rolling with the better team. I'll come with 1 more pick for the 5 or 7 pm games gotta run some errands I'm late for right now.

Didn't make sense to make picks yesterday. I was torn between the Sox and the Tigers, basically wanted to play both for the same game =p; ESPN pre game was telling me to play the Sox but I wanted to play the Tigers. Also I had the Dodgers vs Brewers under 7.5(to make it juicy buy 1.5 points =p) and it went to 8, lol.

Dog of the day:
Philadelphia Phillies -102 vs Miami Marlins -108

Not sure what the lines were for this in the morning but I'll take the home team with the cooler name over the surging Marlins. ESPN gives the Phillies the edge in this match up despite the Marlins early season success. Fade at your own risk.

[H1Cypher]

MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold)
Arizona Diamondbacks -110 vs San Diego Padres +100 to win 3.5 units

ESPN likes it a winning team vs one of the worse. This is just too easy. I've said this before but I really think this ti me the games shave aligned for me and I can lose this but why? It's plausible but why lose, it seems like it should be a win. How could you bet on the Padres in this spot, is there an injury I'm not aware of.


Dogs of the Day:
LA Dodgers +106 vs Colorado Rockies -116

Of course espn likes this also, feels and looks like I'm gonna sweep today the or go 3-1.

[H1Cypher]

June 1st:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold)
Toronto Blue Jays -111 vs Boston Red Sox +101 to win 2 units
Arizona Diamondbacks -110 vs San Diego Padres +100 to win 3.5 units

What is count so far for when I say I'm gonna win today, and I lose 1-5 or something sick like that. Have I even won one on of these days where I feel like a win is due... lol seriously. It seems like even when I in a deficit is so large I barely make a dent.

It seems like with my lack of knowledge in MLB I am falling for what some people refer to as a 'trap'. Good or bad assumption? Just seems that way to me, wrong?

I drop 2.22 units Sox -3.75 Diamondbacks = -5.97 units for me
Fading to my amount +2.02u + 3.5u = +5.52u
Flat bet fading is +1.01u +1u = +2.01u

MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
My Record 46-61 +/-: -41.385u

Fade Record with Moneyline dogs fading my amount rather than +1 or +1.5 as the fade bet: 61-46 +35.797 units
Fade Record Playing Opposite me with Runline +1 or +1.5:61-46 fade +/-: +34.94 units (only when i play runlines otherwise ML fade)

Flat Bet Fading my MLB picks on the moneyline 1 unit per pick: 61-46 +26.37u

Dog of the day:
Philadelphia Phillies -102 vs Miami Marlins -108

LA Dodgers +106 vs Colorado Rockies -116

What da hell, even when I win with a 'dog' it doesn't pay like one. Flat fading not profitable today since they were dogs and I split like I hypothesized.

Underdog Picks record: 2-7 -4.9 units
Flat Bet Fade Tracker to win 1 unit per pick: 7-2 +4.72 units

[H1Cypher]

June 2nd:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):

Tampa Bay Rays -143 vs Baltimore Orioles +133 to win 3.5 units

Looked at the 2 morning games yesterday and neither appealed to me and there were only 2 games to choose from. If there were at least 4+ games I more likely would have posted it after midnight.

ESPN likes this alot I would say. Good team at home playing against a team with a cool logo(the Orioles). I see one team is struggling and the other is not this feels like an easy win. I will come with another pick for the later games and maybe make 1 more addition to the 4 pm pac games but I like this pick alot. It seems like I say this alot but I really mean it, and I really think the games have aligned for me today. Yesterday I was obviously wrong but I don't see how the Rays lose. Thinking about adding the Phillies it seems like a sure winner also Hamels 8-1 with 1 loss to the Marlins and the Philles have the better team. Accuscore gives the Rays just as good a chance of winning the odds are a little better the write up says the Orioles are struggling, just seems right.

I myself am pretty sure I'm gonna have a good day while I've had bad streaks right around now is when I expect to rebound with a couple of wins within the next couple days if not today. That's my opinion worthless as it may be in MLB.

Dogs of the Day:
Seattle Mariners +128 vs Chicago White Sox -138

I'll definitely be coming with another dog for the later games, still I personally would not recommend fading these I just wanna keep track of the data. Will maybe / likely come with 1 more for the 7 pm games.

[H1Cypher]

I was thinking the other day I wanted to figure out a way to stack the odds against me in 5 inning picks kind of how I've done with MLB Fade Plays. So I think I may have an idea. Would not recommend fading but I will start keeping track. I love coming up with names like dog of the day, so I'm gonna call this the 1st 5 innings drive to survive. It's where I'll try to be + units to counter some of the deficit from MLB fade plays whether it works or not I dunno. While there is no driving in MLB like in basketball or football this is more about rhyming than anything else.

MLB 1st 5 Innings Drive to Survive:
Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline -152 vs Miami Marlins +137 to win 2 units
0-0

I def. don't rec fading these but I will keep track just the same.

Edit: Gonna change it slightly reduce the juice moneyline instead of runline. Will play the +1/2 with dogs not favorites.

[H1Cypher]

There's no chalk I like for the 7 pm games. Going to just hold at the 1 game for MLB Fade Plays.

June 2nd Dogs of the Day:
Houston Astros +122 vs Cincinatti Reds -132
Minnesota Twins +128 vs Cleveland Indians -138

Just going to keep working on my underdog sample. My opinion on my 'Dogs of the Day' is they are not worth fading so far I'm wrong but i expect the tide to maybe change eventually.

MLB 1st 5 Innings Drive to Survive:
San Fransisco Giants -154 vs Chicago Cubs +139 to win 1 unit

More juice playing 1st 5, too much of a coin flip just not worth fading so I hope no one is would do that. MLB Fade Plays is where the money is at . Phillies bring home a win in the earlier game, and not a second too soon lol cause they were down in the 6th inning.

Edit: What the hell, Orioles just escaped the clutches of death in this 8th inning lol. I'm not watching the game but I just looked at the boxscore. Bases loaded with 1 outand somehow manage to walk away with out allowing any home runs.

[H1Cypher]

Testing. Wow, I had all that math worked out but I was wrongfully reported by someone apparently. And that reply got erased, wow. I'll do it again later lame. Why would someone want me banned, lame.

[H1Cypher]

June 2nd:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
Tampa Bay Rays -143 vs Baltimore Orioles +133 to win 3.5 units

The snowball keeps rollin. How about them Phillies =p.

-5.005u for me.
Fading to my amount: +4.655u +35.797 units =
Flat bet fading: +1.33 units +26.37u =


MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
My Record 46-62 +/-: -46.39u

Fade Record with Moneyline dogs fading my amount rather than +1 or +1.5 as the fade bet: 62-46 +40.452 units
Fade Record Playing Opposite me with Runline +1 or +1.5:62-46 fade +/-: +39.595 units (only when i play runlines otherwise ML fade)

Flat Bet Fading my MLB picks on the moneyline 1 unit per pick: 62-46 +27.7u


June 2nd Dogs of the Day:
Seattle Mariners +128 vs Chicago White Sox -138
Houston Astros +122 vs Cincinatti Reds -132
Minnesota Twins +128 vs Cleveland Indians -138

2-7 goes to 4-8 with the 2-1 day.

+2.56 u - 1u for the loss = +1.56u
-1.38u -1.38 u +1u = -1.76u

Underdog Picks record: 4-8 -3.34 units
Flat Bet Fade Tracker to win 1 unit per pick: 8-4 +2.96 units

MLB 1st 5 Innings Drive to Survive:
Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline -152 vs Miami Marlins +137 to win 2 units
San Fransisco Giants -154 vs Chicago Cubs +139 to win 1 unit

I'm going to keep 4 categories here I'm curious where the data leads me. I enjoy making picks and these 2 extra categories gives me the leeway to add dogs which I can't do with my MLB Fade Play section.

I looked at the odds on VegasInsider with the juice only being 10 cents on the moneyline the marlins at the time were also +137 for the game. Giants moneyline at the time was -162 but only around 20 minutes before the game Giants were more like -156 for the full game while 1st 5 innings was between -152 and -154 at that time.

My record: 1-1 +.46 units
Fade Tracker betting fading to my amount: 1-1 -.61 units

Flat Bet Fade Tracker to win/risk 1 Unit Per pick: 1-1 +.39units
Tracking the amount/won lost if 1st 5 innings were faded on the moneyline for the game: 1-1 +.37

Giants win game(Cubs win) -1u +1.37(Marlins moneyline at the time of post at 5dimes).

[H1Cypher]

June 3rd:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
Washington Nationals -137 vs Atlanta Braves +127 to win 4 units

ESPN likes it, the accuscore is on my side and the write up is on my side too. Also have one of the best pitchers on my side and possibly the most promising young pitcher in the bunch out of the Nationals according to the pre game write up. It seems like I say this every day but I think the games have aligned. The Braves struggling it's all really aligned this time or so it seems.


Dogs of the Day:
Seattle Mariners +172 vs Chicago White Sox -182
Minnesota Twins +131 vs Cleveland Indians -141

Mariners I'm just putting up cause there is tons of value and they could pull it off. My method for picking these is just roll with the teams who ESPN deems have value even if they are big dogs or the 2nd method which are the Twins. ESPN write up says the Indians are struggling in the middle of a bad run not playing well, giving up alot of runs, the pitcher had his worse outing last game etc. so I'm taking the dog that feels like it might be the favorite with the Twins.

Even if the method is bad(reading the espn write up and deducing from there), my personal opinion remains that fading two chalk picks like this at the same time is a bad recipe for trouble.

[H1Cypher]

June 3rd:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
Washington Nationals -137 vs Atlanta Braves +127 to win 4 units

Snow ball effect. If people with my baseball knowledge were able to pick winners the bookmaker would be out of business.

I'm coming for you LTProfits ;p. I gave LTA almost a 15 unit lead and I passed him I gave you a 20+ unit lead on me, and now betting 1 unit per pick I'm about to generate more profit in my thread for the fade. Than you could picking winners- and you are / were 30 games above .500.

It is little sick though that my losses can out weigh some decent / good cappers wins though, at least thats how it has been thus far. I also really know how to drive a deficit farther in the red, what can I say I'm gifted. Okay I'm done, glad to crow about picking losers. I had a season long NBA thread picking winners and staying in the black is harder than staying in the red lol. I'm not even chasing fade roll has just been steadily slowly building from .5units to 4 unit bets.

You see threads where the person starts with 2x, 3x, and 5x bets early on with massive swings that lead to them being deep in the red. I've only made 2 or 3 4 unit bets- which I will start making more of now that I am deeper in the red.

Time for the basic math.
I drop -5.48u combined with -46.39u =
Fading to my amount + 5.08u + +40.452 units=
Flat bet fade +1.27u +27.7u=

MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
My Record 46-63 +/-: -51.87u

Fade Record with Moneyline dogs fading my amount rather than +1 or +1.5 as the fade bet: 63-46 +45.532 units
Fade Record Playing Opposite me with Runline +1 or +1.5:63-46 fade +/-: +44.675 units (only when i play runlines otherwise ML fade)

Flat Bet Fading my MLB picks on the moneyline 1 unit per pick: 63-46 +28.97u

Dogs of the Day:
Seattle Mariners +172 vs Chicago White Sox -182
Minnesota Twins +131 vs Cleveland Indians -141

Twins game is not over but I'll regrade if I have to, haven't seen many come backs in MLB is all. Just reading the box scores of my picks.

-1u +1.31 = +.31 -3.34 units=
+1 -1.41 = -.41 +2.96 units =

Underdog Picks record: 5-9 -3.03 units
Flat Bet Fade Tracker to win 1 unit per pick: 9-5 +2.55 units

[ColdBeerHere]

haha...keep reading the write ups on the games, and pickin' them losers just like the books want you to ! Put minimal effort in !

[H1Cypher]

June 3rd:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
LA Dodgers -120 vs Philadelphia Phillies +110 to win 2 units

Only 2 units because I think the Dodgers are struggling team and this seems more like a flip to me. ESPN says the Phillies would be starting Halladay here but he is hurt Dodgers are a solid team with a bad record versus this team but I don't care this Dodger team is good. The odds are too good to pass up, accuscore is on my side, Kershaw I got the pitching advantage and this guy Worley I think is making his first start + the Phillies are "injury plagued" according to the write up. It feels good only reason it's not a bigger play is the Dodgers are in a bit of a funk but the odds are too good to pass this up. Make up some of my deficit as small as a 2 unit gain may be. I dunno at this point but I do expect to bounce back after losing 6 it makes you doubt if you will win the next day but I think I'll bounce back soon sometime this week.

The streak is getting interesting 6 losing days in a row anyone who decided to fade at aboslutely any point this thread started even on may 28th when I won 2 in a row and 2 more on the 29th would still be up fading me lol. That's just an observation =/.

haha...keep reading the write ups on the games, and pickin' them losers just like the books want you to ! Put minimal effort in !

It's the same method every time I try not to change anything, like in basketball if it works go to it again. The streak is a bit unexpected but not unwelcome =p.

[H1Cypher]

To me the results of this game mean nothing except for a laugh. So my fade would have me betting the Phillies, Hondo would have anyone fading him betting the Dodgers, anyone tailing LTA would be betting on the Dodgers, basically seems like a degen game to bet on no? =p I think at least my assessment of it being a flip wasn't off, but I trust espn. I can't take down plays after I put them up it's a restsriction.

Dog of the Day:
Seattle Mariners +131 vs LA Angels -141

This is a dog with major value according to ESPN, look at the Mariners pitcher ERA and wins and what not. I still don't recommend fading these but I want to work on the sample size so I have to most a pretty good amount of them might post 1 more today.

[H1Cypher]

1st 5 Innings Drive to Survive:
Seattle Mariners +1/2 Run Line -115 vs -1/2 -105 LA Angels to win 2 units

So I don't have to check the moneyline is at +125 Mariners and -140 Angels.

Just started keeping track of these I expect them to be deep in the red but I have absolutely no clue if they will be in the red or very well will just be 50% which would mean they are useless to bet or to fade. I have a method worked out and I have to work on the sample now.

My record: 1-1 +.46 units
Fade Tracker betting fading to my amount: 1-1 -.61 units

Flat Bet Fade Tracker to win/risk 1 Unit Per pick: 1-1 +.39units
Tracking the amount/won lost if 1st 5 innings were faded on the moneyline for the game: 1-1 +.37

[H1Cypher]

June 5th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold)
St. Louis Cardinals -134 vs Houston Astros +124 to win 2.5 units

Cardinals are struggling a bit but ESPN likes them vs the Astros. Alot of big favorites in the early games and this game is just as good a pick at lower odds. I dunno much about the Astros but they suck and just aren't on the level of these Cardinals.

Woulda got this pick up at 11 am but some errands kept me occupied. Fade Plays went 1-0 yesterday, I'll update the record today most likely.

[H1Cypher]

June 5th:
1st 5 Innings Drive to Survive:
Washington Nationals -158 Moneyline vs New York Mets +143 to win 2 units
New York Yankees -127 vs Tampa Bay Rays +127 to win 2 units
Philadelphia Phillies -120 -1/2 Runline vs LA Dodgers +100 to win 1 unit
Detroit Tigers -160 vs Cleveland Indians +145 to win 3 units

Working on the sample went 1-0 here also yesterday.

Edit: Didn't put "+100" next to Dodgers name, fixing that.

Double Edit: Lol. Forgot to add Mets "+143". Also messed up on the Rays moneyline should be +112 not +127.

[H1Cypher]

June 5th:
Dog of the Day:
Baltimore Orioles +161 vs Boston Red Sox -171

Game hasn't started yet working on this sample also. Just like I thought same percentage as picking chalk but not losing quite as much cause of the + bets.

[H1Cypher]

No more Fade plays today just working on my sample with these two new sub categories for my own purpose. Yesterday the Rangers qualified as a Fade Play and I didn't put it up out of the last remaining games none of the games I really like the favorites in today.

Dogs of the Day:
+141 Seattle Mariners vs La Angels -151

Mariners always have great value according to ESPN it seems lol. This Angel pitcher is suspect and looks like Weaver should be in his spot or something. Mariners seem to do well against teams they beat I look for them to win back to back games here against the Angels.

June 5th:
1st 5 Innings Drive to Survive:
Colorado Rockies +138 vs Arizona Diamondbacks my risk 1 unit
Seattle Mariners +138 vs LA Angels -153 my risk 1 unit

[H1Cypher]

June 4th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
LA Dodgers -120 vs Philadelphia Phillies +110 to win 2 units

June 5th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold)
St. Louis Cardinals -134 vs Houston Astros +124 to win 2.5 units

When it looked like I might catch a break I came back the next day and set myself up for another trap.

My record 1-1: +2 units -3.35 units = -1.35 units -51.87u =
Fading to my amount: -2 units +3.1 units = +1.1u +45.532 units =
Flat bet Fade: -1 unit +1.24u = +.24 +28.97u=

Another successful day for anyone fading me had this up with plenty of time to catch(sorry for only putting them up with 1 and a half hours before the game started, I usually try to get them out before then just ended up that way today) if you wanna play against me every day =p. I'm just sayin' if you were a bookmaker wouldn't you want mlb bettors like me. 1 winning day doesn't change how good I am as a fade.

MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
My Record 47-64 +/-: -53.22u

Fade Record with Moneyline dogs fading my amount rather than +1 or +1.5 as the fade bet: 64-47 +46.632 units
Fade Record Playing Opposite me with Runline +1 or +1.5:64-47 fade +/-: +45.775 units (only when i play runlines otherwise ML fade)

Flat Bet Fading my MLB picks on the moneyline 1 unit per pick: 64-47 +29.21u

June 4th:
Dog of the Day:
Seattle Mariners +131 vs LA Angels -141

June 5th:
Baltimore Orioles +161 vs Boston Red Sox -171
+141 Seattle Mariners vs La Angels -151

2-1 the past 2 days with dogs of the day. From 5-9 to 7-10.

+1.31u +1.61u -1u = +1.92u
-1.41 -1.71 +1 = -2.12


Underdog Picks record: 7-10 -1.11 units
Flat Bet Fade Tracker to win 1 unit per pick: 10-7 +.43 units


Lookin like I was right on these being marginally profitable and with the big chalk it's too dangerous to labby. Meanwhile my Fade plays are bringing in the dough. On my way to the top with those Fade Plays =p.

I will update the first 5 inning record later. I have to go back and update the moneyline for the game on all those picks too because of how I chose to track those so I'll just go back and do it later. 3-3 for 1st 5 to Survive, and 2-4 with the 1st 5 on the entire game.

[H1Cypher]

June 6th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
Philadelphia Phillies -112 vs LA Dodgers +104 to win 2 units

Phillies came into this series as a favorite in game 1 but becacuse the Dodgers are so good it was an up and down affair. I'm almost positive the Phillies bounce back today this feels like a flip but something tells me I'll be at the winning end of this one. I really do feel this way but it never seems to matter . Would be a bigger unit but the Dodgers are a good team so I will show them some respect.

I will likely come with a later game for MLB fade plays around 5 or 6 pm pacific time but maybe not.

June 6th:
Dogs of the Day:
Cleveland Indians +151 vs Detroit Tigers -161
Chicago Cubs +184 vs Milwaukee Brewers -198
Minnesota Twins +151 vs Kansas City Royals -161
Pittsburgh Pirates +166 vs Cincinatti Reds -176

Alot of these dogs won yesterday or competed I don't recall. ESPN sees value in alot of dogs and to exercise this value I have to add a lot of games because I'm playing so much 'value' i.e. coin flip =p I can't just play 1 I gotta flip 4 coins and hope to come out 2-2 with profit thats just the way ESPN has me playing these picks.

Edit: Typo. meant to say series not season. Oh and personally I don't think I'm going to go anything worse than 2-2 in my dogs of the day and even though I like the Brewers and the Reds in their 2 games the odds and ESPN would have me playing the dog. I value espns opinion more than my own and in Fade Plays it's worked out positively for fading me. With dogs I just don't think it matters one way or the other, cause of all the chalk.