[H1Cypher]

Just some quick information about how I make the picks. I take a couple of minutes I read the espn pre game write up and I make a conclusion on who will win. the write up is usually bias and has me playing chalk. When it tells me not to play chalk like Phillies at -240, I decide to play them anyway. Zero baseball knowledge- and I'm not betting money on my own picks. But i am tracking my plays for a full season, with a big enough sample size I am curious how I will do. Keep in mind even if I am a 50% picker it will = profit for anyone fading me because I am limiting myself to mostly high juice favorites.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basket...d-1-a-p16.html

Here is my thread in the basketball where I was tracking the first 39 picks. I'm a winning basketball bettor, and my specialty is live in play totals. I'm a wizard of live in play totals.

April 28th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
St Louis Cardinals - 147 vs Milwaukee Brewers +137 to win 2 units
LA Angels -132 vs Cleveland Indians +122 to win 1 unit
Cincinatti Reds -192 vs Houston Astros +181 to win 1 unit
-140 Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates +130 to win .7 to win .5

After dropping 7 straight I wasn't surprised I came with some back to back winners considering the chalk I am playing. They say it's long term and I'm hoping my zero longterm knowledge will equal a less than 50% record picking all this chalk. Still haven't watched 1 inning of baseball and using espn pre game as my only source of information to make the picks. Not shopping prices either.

+4u -.7u = +3.3u I was gonna put up some 5x 10x plays to get my MLB back in the green today since I'm not betting my own MLB picks and was pretty sure I'd win today. lol would have worked =p haha.
4.945u - 3.35
9.82-3+1.3=8.12u flat bet fading me

MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
My Record 19-20 +/-: -1.615u units
Fade Record with Moneyline dogs rather than +1 or +1.5 as the fade bet: 20-19 +1.595 units
Fade Record Playing Opposite me with Runline +1 or +1.5:15-16 fade +/-: +.465 units
Flat Bet Fading my MLB picks on the moneyline 1 unit per pick: 20-19 +8.12u

These are my last 35 picks:


fade record flat betting:
-112 loss
+110 win
+101 loss
+140 win
+100 loss
+152 win
+152win
+100 loss
+146 loss
-122 Win
+185 win
+105 loss
+130 win
+124 loss
+160 win
UP 417
+115 loss
UP 317
+100 loss
+100 loss
+122 loss
+132 loss
+115 loss

DOWN -183

-107 win
+130 win
+120 loss
+130 loss
+106 win
+115 win
+121 loss

Down -32

+150 win
+104 win
+190 win
+220 win
+140 win
+110 win
-110 win

+982 so far in 35 picks for the fade so +9.82 units flat fading with the moneyline.
those are the odds opposite of my picks, some of them are good when i had the bad number n my side. some could have been better if shopped around like cubs at +220 couldve gotten them at +240

These are picks 29-35 you can see the rest in my other thread. I'll be posting the rest here.

April 26th:
-147 Cleveland Indians vs Kansas City Royals +137 to win .5u

-114 Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles(+104) to win 1 unit
-1 Detroit Tigers -156 vs Seattle mariners(runline is +136 +1, and ml +190) to win .5u


April 27th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
Philadelphia Phillies -240 vs Chicago Cubs +220 to win .5u
-150 LA Angels vs Cleveland Indians +140 to win 2 units
Detroit Tigers -120 vs New York Yankees +110 .6 to win .5u
Tampa Bay Rays Under 4 -110 vs Texas Rangers over side is -110 too to win .5u

[BathingApe]

I don't understand this thread... So are you actually playing with money or is this just a hypothetical tracking of plays

[H1Cypher]

I don't understand this thread... So are you actually playing with money or is this just a hypothetical tracking of plays

Not betting money on my own picks. Once I make say 100 or more picks, and see that I am a consistent loser than I might start fading myself and betting the opposite of my thread. Once I build up a sample size. I would be pretty insane to bet money on my own picks at this point wouldn't you say?

Like I said never watched a full inning of baseball in my life, I'm just gonna pick chalk plays based on what ESPN pre game write up influences me to do. Odds are I'll go 50% but let's say I consistently pick about 45-48% winners only all of which are chalked picks- then I am a cash cow.

Picking 52% underdog winners over the longterm is profitable, seeing if fading me will yield that number this season. Even 49% or less over the longterm playing strictly dogs is still profitable.

How many people you know can go 20-19 picking huge dogs? I don't find many people. Small sample size though we'll see if I keep losing or what.

15 picks I was already up over 4 units, it took a 6 game winning streak to put me down 2 units. Which I quickly recouped by going on an even bigger losing streak. Great thing is even when I'm only picknig 50% which is what I'll most likely be doing at the longterm- it's still profit cause fading me will be playing mostly all dogs. Assuming I can keep losing, gotta work on my sample size. 8-7 in first 15 picks in flat fade risking 1 unit I'd be up over 4 units.

I'm trying to make winning picks but the methodology is terrible. Which is the idea I'm shooting for- If I tried to pick losers it might backfire.

[jbart28]

You are gonna value own yourself. In other words, the 110's to 145's are gonna work you. Maybe you could refine your strat of picking like 150's and better and see what percent that is over a season. Your sample size needs to be bigger imo. Interesting thread

[H1Cypher]

You are gonna value own yourself. In other words, the 110's to 145's are gonna work you. Maybe you could refine your strat of picking like 150's and better and see what percent that is over a season. Your sample size needs to be bigger imo. Interesting thread

So you think if I limited myself to trying to pick only chalk over 150 I'd do better losing at a 50% or worse clip and be up more at the end of the season fading myself?

How are the 110s and 145s gonna work me? I'm not sure what you mean.

Worst case scenario is if I win just enough to not make my fade enough money but I'm down too cause of the chalk. But that would take a high enough win % which I don't know if I'm capable of in MLB. That is what the sample size is for- and yes I agree it will have to be sizeable.


Edit:
Wait I think I get it, by value own myself do you mean when I take favorites at like -130 where even though it is juiced the odds of them winning are higher than the juice indicates or like the -120 picks that happen to be good ones by accident. Is that what you mean by value own?

What about the losers in that selection that I would be picking though aren't I missing out on those too?

[H1Cypher]

April 29th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
Texas Rangers -125 vs Tampa Bay Rays +115 to win .5 units
Boston Red Sox -122 vs Chicago White Sox(+112) to win .5 units

I usually come with more games as the day progresses will try and get in 4 or more plays a day but some days I might have only 2 or 3. Same method as usual I read the ESPN pre game write up and used some simple minded thinking to come to these two.

MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
My Record 19-20 +/-: -1.615u units
Fade Record with Moneyline dogs rather than +1 or +1.5 as the fade bet: 20-19 +1.595 units
Fade Record Playing Opposite me with Runline +1 or +1.5:20-19 fade +/-: +.465 units
Flat Bet Fading my MLB picks on the moneyline 1 unit per pick: 20-19 +8.12u

[crackerjack]

I don't get it...you are trying to pick losers so you can fade yourself down the road? This thread is sort of worthless...

[vrksayy]

The Young God vrksayy's picks for this April 29th of 2012;

SEA +130 ML
ARI +160 ML

[H1Cypher]

April 29th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
Texas Rangers -125 vs Tampa Bay Rays +115(+120 available) to win .5 units
Boston Red Sox -122 vs Chicago White Sox(+112) to win .5 units

Only came with 2 picks but that's 2 more winners for the fade. Still a long road in testing my theory, but the results will show for themselves. No claims just curiousity and a hunch as to what will happen if someone with zero knowledge in baseball tries to pick winners the opposite will likely happen.

+120 was a better line up alot during the day for the Rays so that is what I will count.
-.625u for the Rangers loss, -.61u loss for the Red Sox.
Flat bet fading is +232, +2.32units today.
+1.16 units fading according to my unit amount. and No runline play so same for that category. same picks just different method of fading.
Small sample of 41 picks but up over 10 units betting 1 unit per pick opposite of my pick. Only 3 games above .500 but up over 10 units, not bad.

MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
My Record 19-22 +/-: -2.85u units
Fade Record with Moneyline dogs rather than +1 or +1.5 as the fade bet: 22-19 +2.755 units
Fade Record Playing Opposite me with Runline +1 or +1.5:22-19 fade +/-: +1.625 units

Flat Bet Fading my MLB picks on the moneyline 1 unit per pick: 22-19 +10.44u

[H1Cypher]

April 30th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):

New York Mets(-116) vs Houston Astros(+106) to win 1 unit
Milwaukee Brewers(-105) vs San Diego Padres(-105) to win 1 unit
Under 7 Total Runs -120 Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays over is +100 to win to win .5u

Same usual read the espn pre game write up and try to come to a conclusion. Since I end up reading all the write ups I'm gonna track the leans too. May as well I gotta read the write ups anyway.

Leans: 0-0
Oakland Athletics(+135), New York Yankees(-180), Phillies(-178), Atlanta Braves(-165), Los Angeles Dodgers(+127), and Los Angeles Angels(-225)

[H1Cypher]

May 1st 2012
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
Washington Nationals -138 vs Arizona Diamondbacks(+128) to win 1unit
Atlanta Braves -110 vs Philadelphia Phillies(+100) to win 1 unit
Cleveland Indians under 3.5(-125) team total runs(over is +105) vs Chicago WhiteSox to win .5u
Total Runs over 7(-125) Pittsburgh Pirates vs St Louis Cardinals (under is +105)
to win .5u

Went 2-1 yesterday will update both days today make it easier on myself. Might come with more today depending on how these 4 do.

[H1Cypher]

May 1st 2012
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
Washington Nationals -138 vs Arizona Diamondbacks(+128) to win 1unit
Atlanta Braves -110 vs Philadelphia Phillies(+100) to win 1 unit
Cleveland Indians under 3.5(-125) team total runs(over is +105) vs Chicago WhiteSox to win .5u
Total Runs over 7(-125) Pittsburgh Pirates vs St Louis Cardinals (under is +105)
to win .5u

2-2 today. 2-1 yesterday. Counting the Phillies +105 cause that was easy to get was up most of the day until towards the end of the afternoon when it moved to even.

April 30th picks:

New York Mets(-116) vs Houston Astros(+106) to win 1 unit
Milwaukee Brewers(-105) vs San Diego Padres(-105) to win 1 unit
Under 7 Total Runs -120 Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays over is +100 to win to win .5u

I win 1.5 units from April 30th, and 1 more unit from yesterday. +2.5u
I drop 1.16u, 1.1u, and 1.38u sizing my bets incorrectly this time. -1.14u for me for the past 2 days.

Drop 2.5 units fading my amount bet on the moneyline but win 1.06 for the Astros, 1.05 from the Phillies, and 1.28u from the Philles to end up +1.865u.
Same for fading on the runline since I didn't play any - runlines.

Flat bet fading for 1 unit drops 4u but gets 1.28 from the Diamondbacks, 1.05 from the Phillies, and 1.06 from the Astros to only be down -.61units going 3-4 fading me.

MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
My Record 23-25 +/-: -3.99u
Fade Record with Moneyline dogs rather than +1 or +1.5 as the fade bet: 25-23 +4.262 units
Fade Record Playing Opposite me with Runline +1 or +1.5:25-23 fade +/-: +3.49 units

Flat Bet Fading my MLB picks on the moneyline 1 unit per pick: 25-23 +9.83u

[BeBrave]

So is anything real ?

[H1Cypher]

I private messaged BeBrave and asked if he was on drugs. I can only assume he is coming down from his heroin high he was too sleepy to reply back to my message in due earnest.


MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
Chicago Cubs(+149) vs Cincinatti Reds -159 to risking .5u
San Fransisco Giants -125 vs Miami Marlins +115 to win 1 unit

I'll probably come with more picks. Just read these two write ups. Missed the morning games- darn cause I would have went with the Tigers who are losing. May come with more later in the day. I'm gonna have to start picking some dogs cause I can't pick those very well either.

[H1Cypher]

Milwaukee Brewers(-155) vs San Diego Padres(+145) to win .5u

This looks like an easy win even though ESPN accuscore only gives the Brewers a 55% edge giving me no value. The write up is favorable towards the Brewers. I see that the starting pitcher has ERA of 3.7 something and the other guy is like 4. something with 0 starts this season. So I'm gonna stick my foot out and go with the Brewers to win .5 units.

Keep in mind I haven't watched a full inning of baseball in my life.

[H1Cypher]

May 2nd:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
Over 7 Total runs(-120) Minnesota Twins vs La Angels under is +100 to win .5 units

[H1Cypher]

May 2nd:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
Chicago Cubs(+149) vs Cincinatti Reds -159 to risking .5u
San Fransisco Giants -125 vs Miami Marlins +115 to win 1 unit
Milwaukee Brewers(-155) vs San Diego Padres(+145) to win .5u
Over 7 Total runs(-120) Minnesota Twins vs La Angels under is +100 to win .5 units

Totals are easy 4 in a row =p. -.775u win for me. +.795 units betting to my size amount.

Betting a flat bet unit amount would mean you lost 2.59 units thanks to the Cubbies but recouped it with the Marlins and Padres +2.6 units- if you shopped around would be up a bit. +.01u. No swings yet steady sailing.

MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
My Record 25-27 +/-: -4.765u
Fade Record with Moneyline dogs rather than +1 or +1.5 as the fade bet: 27-25 +5.057 units
Fade Record Playing Opposite me with Runline +1 or +1.5:27-25 fade +/-: +4.285 units

Flat Bet Fading my MLB picks on the moneyline 1 unit per pick: 27-25 +9.84u

[MrShrink]

dig it... keep it up

[H1Cypher]

May 3rd:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):

Atlanta Braves -126 to vs Philadelphia Phillies(+116) to win 1 unit
Total Runs Over 8 +120 Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves(under is -120) to win .5u

Struggled with it for a bit cause of the starting pitcher. One guy had more experience than the other guy, despite Blanton having more experience I felt the 61% edge accuscore was giving the Braves was too much to overcome at -126 certainly a simulation of thousands of games wit hthe Braves coming out winners of 61% is good bet. Thank you ESPN write up . I see the Braves pulled out a close one last game, hopefully this doesn't mean it is going to zig zag cause 61% isn't 100% =p. Still have not watched any innings of baseball.

New York Yankees -126 vs Kansas City Royals +116 to win .5u

The write up wasn't very conclusive it made me feel like the Royals have as hot to win but accuscore has the Yankees as a 58% favorite. Yankees are gonna take it as long as their offense can hold up says the ESPN pre game.

Today my first pick would be the Cincinatti Reds since even with no baseball knowledge I understand 2 consecutive upsets vs a favorite at home is tough. Rather than picking the Reds since my pick would be based more so on instinct rather than capping the game- I won't allow myself that game to cap. Instead I'll go to the next game, make sense?

Los Angeles Angels -129 vs Toronto Blue Jays +119 to win 1 unit

I wanted to make this a 2 unit play but I've lost alot with the Angels so I can't trust them. The write up is on the Angels hard, accuscore is on them hard, the pitcher has a better ERA than the Blue Jays pitcher. Blue Jays are dangerous but this feels

I'm not actually losing money because I am not betting my MLB picks; but I understand the mind frame you are under when you lose since I am a gambler and have won and lost(more losing in poker, more winning in sports gambling). I have lost and I know how it feels. I try to put myself in the mindset of someone who has lost games- wants to win the next ones bad but has restrictions set on him such as: not allowed to take too many dogs, not allowing myself to cap certain games where the zig zag theory may take effect, etc.
That is why I came with the Angels -250 a week back. I had myself in the mindset I want an easy win where could I go to stop the losing streak? I went with the Angels, sure enough they lost. Which is kind of the idea.

[H1Cypher]

May 3rd Cancelled.
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
Arizona Diamondbacks under 3.5 Team Total Runs -120 vs Washington Nationals
Over is +100 to win .5u

I'll keep throwing these out there just based on the merit that I don't think I'll be able to hit over 50% of them. Do I think this one will it hit? Yes, is my opinion any good in baseball? No.

always seems to be a freeroll fading me. i didn't even bother capping the phillies vs Braves total I basically guessed. I just figured the odds of me hitting 5 totals in a row are not so good.
Odds have changed and I'll be playing Yankees for -135Yanks vs +125 Royals
and Angels-140 vs BlueJays(+130) cause that was available for most of the day. And easy to get afternoon hours.

Decided to cancel this pick. 10 minutes after I made it after losing 2 games I wouldn't come with a total to try to win. Doesn't make sense, too much luck involved I might just win this bet lol. So it's cancelled only 10 minutes after I posted it I don't think that is unfair.

[H1Cypher]

New York Yankees -126 vs Kansas City Royals +116 to win .5u

The write up wasn't very conclusive it made me feel like the Royals have as hot to win but accuscore has the Yankees as a 58% favorite. Yankees are gonna take it as long as their offense can hold up says the ESPN pre game.

Today my first pick would be the Cincinatti Reds since even with no baseball knowledge I understand 2 consecutive upsets vs a favorite at home is tough. Rather than picking the Reds since my pick would be based more so on instinct rather than capping the game- I won't allow myself that game to cap. Instead I'll go to the next game, make sense?

I usually won't be changing unit amounts but I can definitely see someone dropping 2 games and then still wanting to make money that day adding onto the Yankees. Adding another .5 units to the Yankees ignoring at -126 even though the line is still at that with most of the public on the Yankees I assume. So from to win .5u now to to win 1 unit -126.

Will have no effect over the base unit amount fade record.

[H1Cypher]

May 3rd:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):

Atlanta Braves -126 to vs Philadelphia Phillies(+116) to win 1 unit
Total Runs Over 8 +120 Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves(under is -120) to win .5u
New York Yankees -126 vs Kansas City Royals +116(+123 if i shopped) to win 1u
Los Angeles Angels -129 vs Toronto Blue Jays +119(+136 if i shopped around) to win 1 unit

I wonder if I can keep this up. If you were to bet either let's say LTA- who has 200k views. Wins more than I lose which would you bet? By the end of the season is LTA going to be up more units than I am down units? And which side would you bet there? I'll be down more or he'll be up more? Only time will tell but in the short span I've been making picks it looks like I am quite a good fade.

+133 was available for the Blue Jays +136 was the max. I'm going to count +133 cause that was easy to get. Kansas City Royals were at +125 for like 3 or 4 hours at some spots. I'll play it for the fade at +123 cause that was really easy to get them at +123. Won't always shop but when it's easy to get a better line for 3-5 hours I will play that line for the dog.

.6u lost on the total, 1.29u lost o the Angels, 1.26 on the yankees, and 1.26 on the Braves = -4.41 units record is 25-31f
Fading my amounts +1.36u, +1.23u, +1.16u, +.5u
Fading a flat bet 1 unit = +1.36, +1.23, +1.16, +1u +9.84u = 14.59u

MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
My Record 25-31 +/-: -9.175u
Fade Record with Moneyline dogs rather than +1 or +1.5 as the fade bet: 31-25 +9.307 units
Fade Record Playing Opposite me with Runline +1 or +1.5:31-25 fade +/-: +8.535 units

Flat Bet Fading my MLB picks on the moneyline 1 unit per pick: 31-25 +14.59u

All picks documented in my NBA thread then continued here. I'll be back at it tomorrow. I didn't even have to go 15-0 to be up almost 15 units betting 1 unit per pick or to win 1 unit.

I'm sure variance will hit me and I will start winning . Isn't that what winners say when they start to lose.

[H1Cypher]

May 4th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
San Diego Padres +110 vs Miami Marlins(-120) to win 1 unit
St Louis Cardinals -145 vs Houston Astros(+135) to win 2 units
Under 7.5 Total Runs(-125) / over is (+105) Chicago Whitesox vs Detroit Tigers to win 1u
Baltimore Orioles(+148) vs Boson Red Sox -158 risking 1 unit

Read the espn write ups as usual and these seemed like the best bets to recover some of the losses. I really like all the bets and would go big on all of them considering how bad I lost yesterday. I think today is the day I win big after being so unlucky and I don't see 2/4 of these losing. Then again I haven't watched one inning of baseball in my life but ESPN has me really positive about these 4 plays.
I try to play a game per time slot so 1 or 2 games at 4 pm. Another at 5 or 7, and 1 or 2 more on the west coast evening slot. Spread them out.

[EASY_MONEY72]

This is one of the best threads on sbr

[H1Cypher]

May 4th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
San Diego Padres +110 vs Miami Marlins(-120) to win 1 unit
St Louis Cardinals -145 vs Houston Astros(+135) to win 2 units
Under 7.5 Total Runs(-125) / over is (+105) Chicago Whitesox vs Detroit Tigers to win 1u
Baltimore Orioles(+148) vs Boson Red Sox -158 risking 1 unit

Huffed and puffed and blew the house down. Padres tried their best to come through but a heart breaking loss and I yet again can't escape the jaws of defeat.

Playing the Red Sox at -155 lowest you could have gotten them was -151 but -155 was real easy to get.
3-4 hour window to get the Astros at +144 or +142. +140 was very easy to get so that's what fade will play it as, very easy to get +140 was most of day +140.

I drop 1 unit on the Padres, 2.9 units on the Cardinals, 1.25units on the Under but managed to get back a measly 1.48 units. Currently 9.175 already in the hole it's getting worse. Deficit is at 12.845 units.

First day fading to my amounts will show greater profit than fading 1 unit per pick. This may increase if I continue to delve into the red abyss. Fading to my amount:
1.55 lost on the Redsox, +1.05u on the total runs, +1u from the Marlins, and 2.8units won from the Astros upsetting the Cardinals. +3.3 units on the day fading to my amount. +9.307u = 12.607u .
Same for the runline fade as I didn't play any -1 runlines.
Flat bet fade: +1 Marlins, +1.05 total runs, +1.4 Astros, -1.55 Sox = +1.9 units on the day +14.59 and the new total is 16.49units up in 18 days.

I do expect there to be a drop off at some point but right now I am only hitting 43% of my picks- and I'm picking mostly favorites putting my fade on the side of + dogs. If a human could pick mostly favorites and hit at 56-57% then that human would be rich betting on sports. Numbers don't lie other than the short sample size.

MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
My Record 26-34 +/-: -12.845u
Fade Record with Moneyline dogs fading my amount rather than +1 or +1.5 as the fade bet: 34-26 +12.607 units
Fade Record Playing Opposite me with Runline +1 or +1.5:34-26 fade +/-: +11.925 units

Flat Bet Fading my MLB picks on the moneyline 1 unit per pick: 34-26 +16.49u

[EASY_MONEY72]

are you posting your picks in bold or the "fade" of your picks in bold?

[H1Cypher]

are you posting your picks in bold or the "fade" of your picks in bold?

My picks are on the left side in bold, if they aren't in bold always look on the left side. My pick will be on the left or in bold(always on the left).

The fade is betting opposite me which would be the picks on the right not in bold. Fade picks, the ones making money- are not in bold and on the right side always.

I dunno if I'm gonna lose 3 days in a row but anything is certainly possible. Will cap the games in a second it doesn't take long except for reading most of the ESPN write ups lol.

I didn't have any games to cap from ESPN early. If a stacked team like the Dodgers loses to the cubs on a 3 game at home, I will usually just cap another game cause I already know what I will go with there in the 2nd and 3rd game.

[H1Cypher]

May 5th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
New York Mets -130 vs Arizona Diamondbacks +120 to win 1 unit
Minnesota Twins Team Total Runs Under 3 -160 vs Seattle Mariners over is +120 to win .5 units
Colorado Rockies +120 vs Atlanta Braves -130 risk 1 unit

Bad day yesterday, the favorite pick of the day would be the Rockies or the Mets. ESPN has me thinking I might sweep these 2 money line picks. Mariners pitcher is too good no? Hopefully I don't push. Haven't watched one inning of baseball yet.

[H1Cypher]

May 5th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
New York Mets -130 vs Arizona Diamondbacks +120 to win 1 unit
Minnesota Twins Team Total Runs Under 3 -160 vs Seattle Mariners over is +120 to win .5 units
Colorado Rockies +120 vs Atlanta Braves -130 risk 1 unit

I expected a winning day with the previous monstrosity of picks I've made the last couple days. I managed to just barely squeak out any profit thanks to my bet amounts being off.

Mets win me 1 unit, +.5u from the total, and -1 unit from the Rckies so I'm up +.5 units on the day.
Fade is down .5 units betting to my amount.
Fade is down 1 unit on the Diamondbacks made back on the Braves but -1 unit for the day because the Twins can't score more than 3. -1 unit flat fading on the day

I'm like a freight train with these totals I just take the most obvious pick and I'm 4-2 in my last 6. Should I keep making them or just stick to moneyline wagers?


MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
My Record 28-35 +/-: -12.345u
Fade Record with Moneyline dogs fading my amount rather than +1 or +1.5 as the fade bet: 35-28 +12.107 units
Fade Record Playing Opposite me with Runline +1 or +1.5:35-28 fade +/-: +11.425 units

Flat Bet Fading my MLB picks on the moneyline 1 unit per pick: 35-28 +15.49u


May 6th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
Cincinnati Reds -124 vs Pittsburgh Pirates +119 to win 1 unit

The early game is this Pirates don't win many back to back. This pitcher Latos is better than the Pirates pitcher. All ESPN signs point to the Reds winning this game. The accuscore isn't up since it's still too early sunday which usually helps me confirm how much I like my pick. Still has me confident the Reds get the W. That's the morning game will do the other time slot tomorrow.

[EASY_MONEY72]

thanks for the response. I am really enjoying this thread. Can;t believe it doesnt have more followers. this is good stuff and I have always thought about betting against the "preview" write ups because yes - they seem to influence you, and yes, they are usually wrong.

[H1Cypher]

thanks for the response. I am really enjoying this thread. Can;t believe it doesnt have more followers. this is good stuff and I have always thought about betting against the "preview" write ups because yes - they seem to influence you, and yes, they are usually wrong.

If you use them as a motive to cap and have no baseball knowledge =p. Definintely influential. They just throw out some stats and let you know how each team is doing; then they give you a reason why each team wants a win to make the game more compelling to the reader.

Kinda how if you're watching a fight sometime and your guy is winning but the announcers keep saying it's a close fight to mess with your head.

Well hopefully you can enjoy the thread X), I'll keep throwing out the whacky picks and with a couple lines of shotty write ups on what may have influenced the final decision.

I do expect a winning streak though in the next couple days but who knows, that's just cause I don't think I can keep picking losers at this high a rate esp. with the chalk I'm picking.

[H1Cypher]

Atlanta Braves -114 vs Colorado Rockies +104 to win .5u

The Braves don't have a huge advantage over the Rockies, and the write up has me thinking this game will be close. Accuscore concurs but Beachy seems so much better than the other guy starting for the Rockies I'm gonna go with the Braves. Yes Beachy struggled last time he met this team last year(thanks ESPN write up ;p) I don't see how just 1 game 1 year ago matters. 8 out of 10 wins for the Braves vs Rockies but have not swept this team since 2003. Now I want to take the Rockies just cause of that 2003 stat never been swept stat at the end of this ESPN article but I'll go with the better starting pitcher.

[H1Cypher]

May 7th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold:
Total Runs Under 8.5 +105, over is -120 St Louis Cardinalsvs Arizona Diamondbacks risk 1 unit
-128 Texas Ranges vs Baltimore Orioles +118 to win 2 units

ESPN has me confident in the total runs here. Seems too easy like I'm picking the favorite and getting + points. The pre game write up, and the ERA of the starting pitchers both concurs under is the play.

The Rangers are struggling but the write up says they are a much better team. The ESPN write up has me convinced the odds wouldn't be -128 if the Rangers were playing better and the Orioles weren't playing so well lately. Rangers pitcher has a better track record against the Orioles. Orioles are playing too well lately, and ESPN says they might be fatigued vs this good Rangers team.

I went 2-0 yesterday will update both records after today is over so I can do both days in one time makes it easier.

[H1Cypher]

I just looked at LTAs picks for today(you know the thread with 200k views)- and his moneyline picks are exactly the same ones I was going to take. Cardinals, Astros, and Rangers- ESPN write up would have told me to choose them all; and was on the Astros and rangers really hard.

ESPN write ups. Where value happens.

[H1Cypher]

2-0 on May 6th. 1-1 on May 7th. I'll update the +/- today for sure.

May 8th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
Texas Rangers -105 vs Baltimore Orioles -105 to win 1 unit

Read the write ups this seems like the easiest pick for this time slot. Will likely get in 1 more for a later time slot later.