[bababooey13]

i get it, nishi is a beautiful striker and ferrer has the heart of a lion, but they both serve like women. wtf

[tevari]

how's it going old friend? care to join me in SBR-retirement mode? it is quite refreshing

[matt1216]

how's it going old friend? care to join me in SBR-retirement mode? it is quite refreshing

Hes on vacation I believe

[EaglesPhan36]

how's it going old friend? care to join me in SBR-retirement mode? it is quite refreshing

Skipping tennis for a few weeks is refreshing. March I normally don't bet much tennis while NCAAB winds down.

[EaglesPhan36]

The TI jinx today is Gonzalez in Houston. Almost 100% of the tips on him with a pick em type line vs. Baghdatis.

Would be careful if you like Gonzalez, he's not exactly a consistent winner above Challengers.

[fitguy67]

i hope that tonight works out as an exception to your "fade the TI pickem lean" policy.

I do have a splash on Gonzales (but this is entirely ignorant of TI...so maybe i get an exemption for one night.)

Beyond that, i have a special place of hatred in my tennis-spectating heart for Baghdatis...well he technically shares it with Rhynitis Williams...for punishing me with the worst ATP-level sustained excuse for tennis i've ever seen (earlier this year in DelRay Beach). I watched it because i had a bet on it...and it was such a festival of UFE's i can't even remember who i bet on and if it won or not...to this day, mentioning either one of these players' names will bring on spontaneous nausea

ATP is usually quite watchable, and WTA usually dreadful...but Baggy/Williams that night was like Pavlyuchenkova and Suarez-Novarro with their periods synchronized and planes to catch.

so that bastard Baghdatis better lose for me tonight!!! I'm predicting another ordeal in which the "winner" will be whoever doesn't try quite hard enough to blow each and every opportunity.

[EaglesPhan36]

Looks like Gonzalez has it. Little shaky, but the true Baggy shows up

[fitguy67]

nice when chokers are true to form like that...

so the TI consensus pikkem leans are like a stopped watch...not ALWAYS wrong...but definitely not wise to bet on that being the case...

[EaglesPhan36]

4.8.14
ATP Casablanca: Ouahab +300

[tommygun]

is everybody here a Tennis insight member?

[EaglesPhan36]

Not me. Looks like I picked the wrong upset. Thought Goffin, Volandri or Ramos would lose. Blah.

[Hardcoar]

So pissed I didn't get in on Carballes Baena in time. Oh well... at least I didn't run the risk of losing the money.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah I should have spread small on all three dogs, but that's the way it goes.

[Cappinpicks]

so tennis insight is a crapshoot guess just like we thought, big whoop

[Cappinpicks]

they also nailed russel +250 over a dogshit player... need to follow them

[EaglesPhan36]

2014 Season Overall Profit: +0.72

*As an aside, everything is either risking 0.5 unit or to win 0.5 unit for any bets this week.

[EaglesPhan36]

4.9.14
ATP Casablanca: L.Mayer -120
WTA Katowice: Feuerstein +155

[marniblitz]

GL, EP! I always enjoy checking into your thread. Hope the college hoops treated you well this year.

[CallMeGENO]

mayer 8 double faults.... really?

[matt1216]

wtf is Hasse doing up 5-2 serving for set and he lost 7-6 (8-6) tie breaker? Yeah right

[EaglesPhan36]

I actually won a 1st set bet against Haase there. Luckiest win ever.

Probably not much more till next week. This week serves a reminder that I am better when I do previews and study the draws more.

[EaglesPhan36]

If I bet today, Paire looks simple. Simple usually equals losing. That's why they say keep it simple stupid when they hate you.

[bababooey13]

EP i love you, but you have a serious hard-on for paire. he sucks dick.

[Hardcoar]

He does (in the literal sense), but he has some sick talent.

[EaglesPhan36]

EP i love you, but you have a serious hard-on for paire. he sucks dick.

I was pointing out he was likely to lose because it appeared he should win. I don't back him.

[EaglesPhan36]

ATP Monte Carlo Mini-view
This tournament rarely produces much in the way of a surprise in the Finals. Either the #1 or #2 seed or both have been involved in the Final in eight straight years. Nadal has made the Final every year since 2005 and won eight of the last nine. Djokovic winning in 2013.

1st Round Upset Potential
Seppi over Youzhny
Balleret over Garcia-Lopez

Nadal Quarter
It looks like a smooth ride for Rafa at least to the quarters. That is where he may find Ferrer. Dimitrov, Granollers or Ramos could loom in Ferrer's 2nd match. Ferrer has a 21-9 mark in Monte Carlo, but he lost his 1st-up in 2012 and did not participate here last year. I do believe he'll be able to find the form to push through to a quarterfinal against Rafa. Dimitrov is the dark horse in this quarter. Andujar might be worth backing for a couple rounds before he could potentially meet Rafa. He opens with Roger-Vasselin and then would face Seppi or Youzhny. His clay form is better than any of that group in 2014.

Wawrinka Quarter
Stan made the 4th round both in Indian Wells and Miami, but lost to the likes of Kevin Anderson and Alexandr Dolgopolov. Not the type of losses you want to see the #3 player in the world being saddled with. Toss in a Davis Cup hiccup to Andrey Golubev and this could be a crucial tournament for him. He's played well here recently with quarterfinals trips his last two times in Monte Carlo. His draw affords him a good semifinal shot if his head is on straight. Cilic or Verdasco will test him right away. I expect this to be one of the better first round matches if Verdasco can overcome any potential fatigue from winning Houston and travelling. The winner likely gives Wawrinka a hard time. The bottom of this quarter sees Raonic and vets like Robredo, Benneteau and Melzer. Seems to me the top of this quarter is where the semifinalist comes through.

Federer Quarter
Temper the expectations for Federer as he may be using this as a warm-up for next week in Madrid where he normally plays much better. He's in Monte Carlo for the 1st time in three years. Karlovic or Stepanek will be his first opponent. He'd probably see Jerzy Janowicz before a potential QF with Tsonga or Fognini. Those are the headliners in the top part of the quarter. Fognini will have it more difficult with Sousa to open and then possible Bautista-Agut after that. With Tsonga still in a bit of a funk, look for Fognini to potentially skirt through and he might slip into the semis if Federer isn't full engaged.

Djokovic Quarter
Djokovic sits in the bottom of the quarter. Paire opens against Montanes with the winner to be Djokovic's first victim. A good 1st rounder between Anderson and Monfils also takes place in this portion of the quarter along with young gun Carreno-Busta taking on Dodig. Watch Monfils, but DJokovic punches through to the quarters. Berdych leads the seeds in the top part of the bracket. Dolgopolov is also in that portion of the quarter. Berdych has been very consistent in 2014. He faces Turnsunov and then likely Dolgopolov. Dog is having one of his best runs maybe ever this Spring, so watch for him to turn it up this week if Berdych falls short. Djokovic should squeak through here, but Berdych and Dog could be threats.

Futures
Nadal -125
Djokovic +185

As I said early, this tournament does not produce much in the way of surprises by the time the Final is set. These are likely your guys this week. Prices seem solidly set with Nadal I think given a bit easier route to the Final, while Djokovic's quarter alone has a couple of tough outs in Berdych or Dolgopolov. At his best though, Djokovic should be expected to be in the Final.

[beefcake]

Think Fog hat at 45-1 is a good long shot bet to green out in the semis..

[EaglesPhan36]

4.14.14
ATP Monte Carlo: Andujar -125

[EaglesPhan36]

Adding....
Robredo-Goffin Ends in 3 Sets

*Waiting for price in live platform

[EaglesPhan36]

Nice to get a W to start a tourney. Half stakes on the Robredo-Goffin total to preserve profit.

[Mikail]

4.14.14
ATP Monte Carlo: Andujar -125

Nice pick. Keep it up.

[sexmann]

seppi over youzhny wouldn´t be an upset

[EaglesPhan36]

Adding....
Robredo-Goffin Ends in 3 Sets

*Waiting for price in live platform

+145

[EaglesPhan36]

seppi over youzhny wouldn´t be an upset

By price, no. By seed, yes.

[EaglesPhan36]

Typical Goffin I suppose. At least the profits stay above even.