At least I got my play on the board about 15 mins before the first match started for this ticket. Sorry about that. Mertens lost to Mannarino last week in a really close 3 set match. So that told me he was playing fairly well bec Mannarino was having a really good week. He was playing really solid. So for him to hang to the very end of 3 told me something. His opponent, Panfil, has played two matches the entire year on the Challanger level & he lost both. His last match, 3 weeks ago or so, he got blown off the court by Elias. So I felt comfortable that Mertens was probably playing better tennis right now & should get through this match into the next round. Could see a close one here possibly. Rufin barely lost in 3 sets to Seppi last tment in the first round. But he got through qualies to get there. The tment before, he ran though qualies again and lost in the second round. So, he has been winning a good ammount of matches this year against the players he should. His opponent, Gawron, has lost 2 of his last three matches, and got wipped off the court 0&1 by Brizzi his last tment two weeks ago. This is a step up for Gawron for sure & if he doesn't bring his best game, he could be off the court quickly as well. I look for Rufin to move into the next round.
Update Play #2 - Well, Harrison lost 3 & 3. When I saw Sousa play in Houston, I didn't see anything that would hurt Harrison. No big serve or big groundies. He was impatient at times & was constantly on defense. I thought this was Ryan's match to win or lose. I only went half a unit bec I was hoping he would play patient tennis & set up his big forehand. The match only lasted a little over an hour. Not a great start to the day, but hopefully we get it back with some of the other plays.
Last edited by Dmoneytx; 05-01-12 at 08:51 AM.
Reason: grammar
Machado lost in the finals in Rome a week ago or so & lost to Hanescu in 3 close sets last tment. So he is playing some inspired tennis. He is also playing at home, so we have the crowd support on every match. His opponent, Sousa P, didn't win a match for two weeks & retired 2 tments ago. He did find some good form last tment & won two matches. I still look for Machado to get through this match & move into the next round. Cipolla has had a decent year so far. He lost a close match in the semis 2 tments ago, so he had a really good run. Last week, he destroyed Lorenzi & barely lost to Lopez F. He is winning the matches he should this year & competitive in almost all the other matches as well. He will have a good deal of confidence going into this match. His opponent, Juniqueria, has lost 5 of his last 7 matches. The only two he won were very close 3 setters, and nowhere near the level of a Cipolla. I saw him in Houston & he has NO serve at all. His groundstrokes are good, but he has NO weapons and never came to the net. I look for Cipolla to get through this match & maybe make a small run this tment.
I couldn't get this write up in on time, so sorry. I have had scattered lessons this morning and afternoon & also helping girlfriend with her work. I will at least say why I liked the picks since I have the time. In the future, picks will come earlier with write ups quickly behind. At least I have been getting my picks out before the matches start. Will try to do these the night before every chance I get so they are up even earlier. Lojda was a play I was looking at all day yesterday. At the price of -275, I actually thought of going bigger on this play. He is not the greatest player, but he does play the better players tough. Losing to Schoorel & Sousa J, in close matches. Two tments ago, he won his first match & barely lost in round of 8. I am almost more betting against his opponent, Obry. He has only played one match on the Challanger level & lost to Mina. I would not expect him to win this match over a fairly good Challanger player. Good draw for Lajovic, a good chance to win some matches this week. Cipolla was explained in the last write up (see for play #3). Again, we got him at a great price I thought....
Last edited by Dmoneytx; 05-01-12 at 03:40 PM.
Reason: grammer
Rufin was explained in the first write up (see for play #1). He is a trmendous grinder, plays with a lot of heart & wins a lot of matches on the Challanger level...... Chardy was a huge favorite here. I was thinking of putting him in a few parlays actually, but laid off. It just wasnt worth laying him in more than one parlay bec he has been known to choke a match or two when he IS the big favorite. I know, I have burned in the past. But I took a chance on him today. He made a run two weeks ago to the semis and lost a close match to Ramos A. He made the finals last week in the doubles, but lost a rough singles match to Starace. He has a good draw this week & needs to take advantage of it. His opponent, Basic, was blown out by Lajovic two tments ago. Last week, he made a run to the quarters & lost in 3 sets to Millot. So he has found some decent form, but he is way over matched by a veteran like Chardy. Look for Chardy to win possibly a close match today.
Update for Play #1: Mertens pulled out a great comeback in the first set! He was down 2-5 and Panfil had a match point. Mertens manage to win 5 games in a row from that point! Breaking Panfil at love in when he was serving for the first set at 5-4. Mertens got the early break in the second to keep it rolling. Panfil got the break back & they went to 3-3. From there, Mertens held, broke and held again to take the match 7-5, 6-3. That was a match I did not feel good about early on, but was very pleased with the result.
Rufin will be updated after all plays are updated bec the match is going to be continued tomm
Machado was a crazy match! He wasted 4 break points in the first set. Sousa P was playing fairly well and the first set went to a tiebreaker. Sousa went up 6-0 in the breaker & finally ended up winning it 7-3. I knew Machado had to go up quickly in the second set & he did just that. He went up 5-0 and from there, I knew he was gonna take it to Sousa bigtime. He blew Sousa out in the second & third sets to win this match 6-7, 6-1, 6-2. Machado into the next round.
Cipolla did exactly what I thought he would. He blew out Juniqueira in the first set & got the break in the second and just held on to win the match 6-1, 6-4. I thought at -335, the price was amazing bec I knew Juniq had nothing to hurt Cipolla. It didn't surprise me to see that line climb to over -400 at match time. We locked it in early & it was an easy win I thought.
Lojda broke Obry 5 times today in their match. They were tied at 5-5 in the first set & the luck ran out for Obry. Lojda ended up winning the next 8 games in a row to fairly easily win in straights 7-5, 6-0. I knew I had a great price for this match. Kind of upset I didn't go bigger like I wanted to. Lojda into the next round.
Cipolla match was explained in the write up for cashing play #3. A very comfortable win for Cipolla.
Update for Play #5: Chardy saved 3 break points today to win in straight sets. Both sets were fairly close, as I knew this wasn't going to be a cake walk. Chardy played well enough to win 6-4, 6-4 & moves into the next round.
Rufin will be updated after all plays are updated bec the match is going to be continued tomm.
*****Rufin will continue his match tomm due to darkness. Rufin made an amazing effort in the second set. After losing the first set 5-7, the second set went back and forth until it go to 5-5. I knew this match was going to be stopped soon bec they have no lights there, and I was praying that Rufin could find a way to win this set now & then get to come back tomm to start a new third set. Well, at 5-5, he broke Gawron & then held to win the second 7-5. So tomm they will be the first match up, and Gawron will need to bring his A game again bec Rufin must feel like he dodged a bullet and should be ready to get back out there tomm & step it up.
So, this leaves Play #1 & Play #5 open today and we wait for Rufin to cash them both tomm.
(open plays will be included on tomm's records)
Thanks Rory I do my best to pick my best plays & then to explain why I like that player. I have been around tennis for a long time teaching, playing & studying. Sometimes the best play is to know WHICH matches to stay away from! Thanks for stopping by. Always feel free to leave comments, advice, opinions, whatever..... We are all in this together. If you any questions on any players, just ask. BOL to ya!!!
I am checking to see what time the Rufin match starts for me tomm morning. I will look at the board later tonight, haven't looked at it yet. I know some of the match ups already, but need to look for awhile to see what I like. I will post them on here as soon as I can.
Baghdatis is having a decent year so far, winning 14 matches. He had a good first round match, almost 2 hours with Kamke. He really only had a bad second set, getting broke twice. The first & third sets he only faced one break point in 2 sets. He is definetly the more accomplished player here & has a good opportunity this week to make the quarters or better. This is well needed for Baghdatis to make a run in a smaller tment. His opponent Brown, went thru qualies this week in straight sets, but he never played a really good player to get into the tment this week. He did play Brand well yesterday & he will need to bring his A game again today if he wants a chance to get into the next round. Brown did save all 8 or 9 break points yesterday. Brands can be a very up & down player. I see Baghdatis being a much more solid opponent today who has the all court game & serve to set up the forehand. Going to be a very tough match for Brown, even though I do see this one very close. I look for Baghdatis to move into the next round. Cipolla played a very solid match yesterday, winning in comfortable straight sets. It was a good match to get his feet underneath him & to gain some confidence right away. Last tment he lost a close match to Lopez F in the second round. The tment before that, he lost a close match in the semis to Andujar. He has picked up 13 wins this year & he has a good chance to keep advancing in this tment into the quarters. He beat de la Nava twice last year, once in three sets comfortably and once in two close sets. De la Nava went thru qualies this week, but never played a good clay courter ( Pereira, Nunes, Ferrol ). He barely go by Marti yesterday, but today is a much tougher player & true clay court player in Cipolla. De la Nava has made his first tment main draw in 4 tments, but look for Cipolla to be too much today and move into the next round.
****Rufin had to continue his match this morning after splitting sets yesterday. He served really well & had some break chances early. He finally go the break easily at 3-3. He held serve twice at love & won the third set 6-3!!!
This actually meant yesterday was a great day at 4-1, with the one loss only being a 1/2 unit play. But the two plays that were pending, are going on todays record as stated yesterday in the thread.
Play #1 - CASH IT (was pending from yesterday) - 1u to pay 0.68u
Play #5 - CASH IT (was pending from yesterday) - 1.5u to pay 0.54u
Update Play #1: Whew! Baghdatis played a horrible opening set, but my gut told me that all he needed was a break in the second set to get his fire going. He had chances early & finally broke Brown at 2-2 in the second. He held serve to take the second. He again got an early break in the third set & kept the momentum going. He continued to hold serve to win the third set and the match 1-6, 6-4, 6-4. I just knew there was no way Brown was going to play 2 quality sets against a player of Baghdatis strength. Bags into the next round.
Waiting for Cipolla to cash this ticket....
Thanks Rory! I needed Rufin to win that match this morning bec the Lakers didnt cover last night, those bastards, LOL!!! I seem to have caught a hot streak lately. I do this from quite often, so I hope to keep it rolling I have learned over time, that sometimes the best bets are the matches you don't take. Way too many trap lines out there. BOL today sir!
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. I hope Hidalgo wins later, looking forward to your write ups 
. I bought Tsonga at -535 yesterday. He better wake up in the 2nd !!!
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