Dmoneytx Daily Tennis Picks

**Demonata** · 04-25-12, 12:19 AM

Dmoney is a good person and a smart bettor.

**Dmoneytx** · 04-25-12, 12:57 AM

Thanks for the props D

Always value your comments and advice.

**Dmoneytx** · 04-25-12, 12:58 AM

4/25
Play #1

Ito -600
Soeda -250
Adujar -650
Sharapova -1000

Total = apprx +107

**Demonata** · 04-25-12, 02:55 AM

No problem man.Alright parlay by the looks of it. I got James Ward,Cetkovska and Tipy in a parlay. All should win. Only worried about the ward pick.

**Dmoneytx** · 04-25-12, 07:45 AM

I liked Ward last night. OR tonight I guess now with the rain out. He is serving really well this tment & if he keeps on that pace, he SHOULD take that match tonight. GL in that parlay D.

**Dmoneytx** · 04-25-12, 08:53 AM

4/25
Play #1 - Write Up

I put my play in about 17 mins before the Ito match, sorry for the late post. I saw Ito and Soeda both play in Houston & I was impressed. Both are very strong players for the Challanger level & I could quickly see why both win so many matches at that level. Ito has more of a power game, bigger serve and a good forehand! He is very consistent for a Challanger player and also showed very good defensive skills on the court (which is so imp for clay tennis). He is playing a young Russian, Baluda, who made it through qualifying this week. He has a good serve, but he will need to do more than just serve well to beat an in form Ito. Baluda is ranked around 400. Ito has the all around edge & the experience & confidence factor here. The rains came last night and the match was stopped with Ito up 6-3, 2-2. Soeda didn't have the power that Ito had, but his ability to absorb big shots was amazing. His defense was outstanding from what I saw. I also have the feeling that Soeda does has a good ammount of power for the players at this level. But his defense alone should win him a lot of matches. He plays Wang, who is a Tiawanesse player. Wang is just very consistent. He usually makes the quarters of the Challanger level & wins the matches he should. Most of his wins against much lower players though are usually fairly close, they are not blow outs. I expect Soeda to be able to control the match & use his defense to make it too tough for Wang. They play after the Ito match bec of the rains last night. Andujar had some time to rest, so he should be ready to go for this tment. Having been fatigued going into Monte Carlo, he lost a tough match to Wawrinka. With time to get ready & prepare, he should be ready to make a decent run this week. He played Goffin yest & won in straights. That was a pretty good win bec Goffin has been playing well. His opponent Farah had to go through qualies this week to make the tment. Prior to this tment, he has lost 3 of his last 5 matches. The two wins were against far inferior players (and they were still close). I expect Andujar to go to work today in this match & make it into the thrid round. Sharapova is playing her first tment since making the finals at the Sony & barely getting edged out by Radwanska. She made it to the finals of the tment before that as well, losing to Azarenka for the title. Even though clay is not her best surface, look for Maria to have to set up her groundstrokes and she should be able to blow her opponent right off the court. She needs the matches to get ready for the French Open, so expect her to be extra motivated to notch some clay court wins heading into Roland Garros. Cornet was BLOWN off the court by Wozniacki in her last singles match coming into this tment. She had to go through qualies to make the main draw here. She has grinded out some long tough wins already this tment, but Maria is a completely different level of hitting than the matches she has played here. I look for the #2 player in the world to move into the third round.

**Dmoneytx** · 04-25-12, 09:00 AM

PS. I added the date to my play #1 post earlier this morning, so it showed an update or edit. I am trying to figure out my format of how I want to organize my plays and write ups. My plays for that parlay were posted at 12:58am, before the Ito match started of course.

I will also post a daily updated record of my parlays & straight plays, along with the units won or lost totals to go with it. I will also post the payout for the play, along with the play, from now on (I did not do that for my first parlay). But, for example, the payout for play #1 today would be: 1 unit = 1.07 units / Remember, I always risk 100 (which is 1 unit for me) per play (parlay or straight).

**Demonata** · 04-25-12, 09:55 AM

Good luck man.

**Demonata** · 04-25-12, 10:29 AM

Any idea when those challenger matches will resume?

**Optional** · 04-25-12, 11:53 AM

Nice info Dmoney

Would love to hear your assessment of Sugita too. Been following these Japanese players a bit. Think they are particularly worth looking out for in the lead up to Davis Cup and Olympic selections btw. With so much close competition to partner Nishikori they all played out of their skin in the Jan/Feb run up to Davis Cup.

**Dmoneytx** · 04-25-12, 12:10 PM

I can't get a confirmed time of when they resume. I am assuming that they will, at the very least, start at the same time the matches did last night, 1am CST for me. They might go off an hour earlier to try to get some more matches in. I won't really know until I check around midnight to see if they went earlier.

**Demonata** · 04-25-12, 02:08 PM

Ok thanks man. I hate rain delays.

**Dmoneytx** · 04-25-12, 03:50 PM

What a dissappointing match for Andujar. He got the break back in the third & I thought he would take this match finally! Instead, he losses two games in a row to lose the match 6-7, 6-4, 5-7. I am really surprised that Farah took him that far. I actually saw the ML on Andujar went to -950 on Bovada before the match. Not a good result for Andujar at all!!!
Makes me fairly frustrated bec I usually don't do 4 player parlays. And here I am starting my first play with a 4 teamer. I passed on matches I liked last night like, Nishikori, Anderson & Ramos. I'm sure the other plays come in, but a loss is a loss. Will get back to more of my 2 player hook ups like usual. Hoping to have a good day tomm!!!
Remember, this is a marathon for me. I never like losing a play, but I never chase my money with one big play. Might have two plays for tomm, so lets hope for the best.

**Demonata** · 04-25-12, 03:54 PM

Ya man I got screwed by Paer or whatever her name is today. Going on Nishikori tomorrow though. Great value on him.

**Dmoneytx** · 04-26-12, 12:45 AM

Ramos is really tough man. And he is playing at home. I have been looking at that one. I am leaning towards Nish, but I could see a 3 setter there. Man, that's a tough one...

**Dmoneytx** · 04-26-12, 12:48 AM

4/26
Play #1

Soeda -275
Lu -350

Total = apprx -131
1 u / .74u

**Demonata** · 04-26-12, 01:06 AM

Ya man but Nishikori is really tough too and feel he wins long rallys pretty well and should do fine on clay and have the edge.

**Sport_Fish** · 04-26-12, 02:24 AM

Good luck with ur thread and plays

**Dmoneytx** · 04-26-12, 02:28 AM

Thank you SF

Any info or comments are always appreciated. GL as well!!

**Dmoneytx** · 04-26-12, 02:30 AM

Money moved a little bit more on Nishikori. Bovada at -150 now. I'm still thinking about it.....

**tommygun** · 04-26-12, 03:38 AM

dmoney i expect some good plays in here

**Dmoneytx** · 04-26-12, 05:12 AM

4/26
Play #1 - Write Up

I went with Soeda in the same match up I chose for my paraly yesterday. And for the same reasons. It rained yesterday & they resumed early this morning. Soeda makes a living on the Challanger level. He was serving really well & his defense wins him a lot of points. He is better than Wang at every facet, so it will be tough for Wang to get ahead of him & win this match.
Lu is another player who earns a lot of wins on this level. Lu is playing in his home country this week & is seeded number one in this tment. He has been off for a month since retiring his last match in Gosier. He is very solid on both sides, moves very well & is a tough player to beat at this level. His opponent, Weintraub, is a decent Challanger level player. He has gotten to a few quarterfinals this year, but also lost some first round matches at this level. I expect Lu to get through in straight sets and move into the next round.

**Dmoneytx** · 04-26-12, 05:13 AM

Thank you tommygun. I expect some good plays in here as well

**Dmoneytx** · 04-26-12, 05:39 AM

4/26
Play #2

Triocki -255
Tipsarevic -400

Total = apprx -132
1u / .74u

**Dmoneytx** · 04-26-12, 05:46 AM

Update for Play #1: Soeda won the first set 6-4. Wang retired in the second set at 5-5. I am impressed that Wang was hanging with Soeda for this entire match, but something made him stop the match & quit. Lu is up a break already in the first set at 3-2. The rains came & play is suspended. I don't know if the match will be continued in a few hours or if they will come back later tonight to finish.

***Bovada cancels a wager if a player retires in a match at ANY time. This is one of the only books I have heard of that do that, so I will grade all of my wagers that are retirements by that rule. I know for almost all other books, the play stands after one set. So for this play, I am now only waiting for a straight play to finish up. That would mean the new wager for play #1 is 1u / .31u (even though most of you will have the Soeda as a win)

**Dmoneytx** · 04-26-12, 06:07 AM

4/26
Play #2 - Write Up

Triocki has played Bachinger this year already in Qatar. They had a really close first set & then Triocki rolled him in the second set to win in straights. I know this is on clay, but its not like Bachinger is a clay court specialist or anything. Triocki is a very solid player and fierce competitor. He has a big forehand & serve, if he is hot he is very tough to beat on any surface. He lost in the second round of the last two big tments, but he ran into Murray & Djokovic. His opponent Bachinger is a 25 year old German who lost in qualies last week to Rufin at Monte Carlo. He also lost his last match before that in the second round to Paire in Hassen. He lost in qualies as well at the Sony. I expect Triocki to be too strong for Bachinger, even on the slower surface & should move into the next round. But I do expect a close match.
Tipsarevic is a very strong player on any surface. He is coming off a seconf round loss at Monte Carlo to Simon in a tough 3 set match. Simon was playing really well last week & made the semis. Tipsarevic is a very fit player, has excellent ground strokes & moves extremely well. He beat Hanescu in the second round, who has playing actually really well the last few weeks. He should be a very energetic game today & should be able to control most of the rallies from the baseline. He also has the check mark in experience by a long shot here. Gil is a 27 year old player who went thru qaulies to get into Monte Carlo. He was wiped off the court by Simon in the second round. He has won two matches this week, but Sousa should of won that match yesterday & choked something fierce in that third set. He gave Gil so many chances to take that match it was sickening. I do NOT expect Tipsarevic to give him the same gifts today. He will have to bring his A game to hang with Tipsarevic today in my opinion.

**Dmoneytx** · 04-26-12, 07:58 AM

Play #1 - CASH IT

Lu won fairly routinely 6-4, 6-4. There was just a few break points for each player & Lu defintely capitalized on his chances. It was nice to see them finish these matches today & not wait another 24 hours.

***After thinking about it, I am going to grade my plays based on what 98% of most sportsbooks do. I said earlier, I would grade my plays based on Bovada's "retire any at point in match & wager is a push" policy bec this thread is to help others in trying to make some money. I don't want to be on the other end of a retirement & tell people on here that I pushed bec I am at Bovada and my paraly ends up paying for me. While everyone else got the loss from the retirement & loses the parlay. So, for my record and grading plays on this thread, all matches after the first set are in action. This means my personal account will be slightly different from the threads numbers, bec I might push a paraly that others lose & I might get paid less on a parlay that others got paid more on bec of late retirements. Just wanted to clear that up for everyone. Thanks.

**Dmoneytx** · 04-26-12, 08:26 AM

Play #2: Triocki lost in a third set tiebreaker

What a bum! I thought he would really be able to win that match straight up. I'm sure Tipsarevic will come in now. Maybe one more play for the day, need a good one.....

**Dmoneytx** · 04-26-12, 08:35 AM

4/26
Play #3

Lajovic -350
Baker -200
Simon -1400

Total = apprx +107
1u / 1.07u

**Dmoneytx** · 04-26-12, 12:11 PM

4/26
Write Up - Play #3

Sorry for the late write up. I had 3 lessons back to back & had to fly out the door. I did manage to post my third play today about 10 mins before the Lajovic match started.
I was eyeing this match last night for awhile & was going to put it in a parlay for sure, I just couldn't decide with what. Lajovic usually makes it to the semis or quarters on the Challanger level. He is a good, solid player for this field. He also just beat Bellotti earlier this year. Bellotti is simply not on the same playing field as Lajovic is. He usually loses first round in Challangers, maybe second here & there. This was a definite mis match, and at -350 I thought that was a generous price.
Baker was my next play bec I think we ALL know that Kendrick is finished. His career is over & he is going to lose early in a lot of the Challanger tments he plays. I saw him in Houston a few years ago, he had NO weapons what so ever. In fact, he was a head case from what I saw. Baker has been playing really well lately & has a lot of confidence from beating Sweeting & Russell recently. He even lost to Querrey in a third set. His serve has been doing really well & this was a NO brainer for me! And Baker was only -200??? I should of put a straight on him for a couple units at that price.
Simon is just in a different level than Sela. Simon has established himself as a good clay court player that can even beat some of the better pros on the main draw ATP. Making the semis last week should give him a ton of confidence, but Sela would have his hands full regardless. Sela was out for a month after losing to Clement at the Sony. He beat Unger in the first round, but that is NO where near the level of a Simon. I expect Simon to get throught this match & move into the next round.

**Dmoneytx** · 04-26-12, 12:20 PM

Lajovic wins in straights easy, 6-1 6-3. I was really surprised to see that line at only -350, the book missed that one bigtime. Good for us!!!

**Dmoneytx** · 04-26-12, 12:23 PM

Baker destroyed Kendrick. The guy is done, period. Fade Kendrick, it will make you some money. Baker had a tight first set, but then rolled in the second to win 6-3 6-1. All in all, fairly comfortable. Again, I was surprised to see this at -200. Baker is not well known and is not even in the top 200, but he was MORE than good enough to beat an aging, washed up Kendrick.

That only leaves Simon to cash the third play today!! Lets get em for a good day today!!!

**Dmoneytx** · 04-26-12, 03:22 PM

Play #3 - CASH IT

Simon broke Sela 4 times to win comfortably in straight sets today, 6-4 6-2. I only threw that play in on my parlay I knew Simon would not lose & it added around 8% value to the payout.

**Dmoneytx** · 04-26-12, 03:40 PM

Todays Record 4/26:

Parlays (2-1) +0.81 units
Straights (0-0) 0.0 units

***To calculate how much we won or lost in the day, we add the units won for each winning play minus the ammount of units we wagered in the losing plays. So, for example, today we won 0.74 units & 1.07 units. We add that together for 1.81 units won today. We then take our only losing play, wagered 1.0 units, and subtract that from units won. So, we get 1.81 - 1.0 = 0.81 units of profit today. We then take our winnings or losing for the day & add or subtract it to our overall record (along with the plays won or lost). All in all, fairly simple.
Remember, I usually always wager 1.0 units per play, so $100. If I really like a play, I might go multiple units and this will be clearly stated underneath the play and the payout when first posted before the first match for that wager.