[Demonata]

Nice to know someone is thinking like me. I'm on the same play man.Best of luck.

[gregm]

Thanks demonata , good luck today. I have been on a very poor run in almost all sports and I have never done well in this tourney wagering wise but this handicap seems high for a player like peer. Aza may win this title though if she can get by Serena and get a solid serve. Stosur looked pretty sharp today and made it to the finals here last year.

[Demonata]

Ya man just +7 in WTA is just usually too much to cover because WTA is so crazy.

[gregm]

YTD 153-148 +6.82

I told myself at the beginning of the clay season that I would not wager on this surface, I can look at my sheets since online betting came about and this is the only surface where I have a losing record overall in tennis. This year is no different even with the few wagers I have placed but I am a tennis addict and direc tv may be the greatest asset for a tennis bettor but its horrible to have this incredible tool and not wager on tennis.

Every match imaginable and I just got directv2pc and a multi monitor. This is not going to work out well, I am putting up great numbers in soccer but nba and hockey playoffs have been pretty poor, I just have a feeling this is not going to turn out well but we will see after today, I am going to take a punt here on some matches.

I hate watching clay, I love watching the matches in beautiful places like Charleston, Monte Carlo, Barcelona and now Paris but the surface is just tough for me to figure out and even as a tennis fan I hate watching it. The players hitting the clay out of their shoes, the injuries, even the televised matches are sometimes tough to watch. I was so close to putting a futures bet on Serena. LOL

Berdych/Ferrer/Tsonga/Verdasco +101 risk 2

I was just reading some comments on tennis insight about Seppi being in the "form of his life". Seppi did have an impressive showing in Rome and I guess people are impressed with him beating Wawrinka in Rome and beating Davydenko in straight sets(?) here in Paris but what else has he really done? Making it to the finals in a small tourney like Belgrade and that has been pretty much about it. Other than that his year has been pretty dismal and if you look at Verdascos year he has basically losing to top players like Berdych in Madrid in the quarterfinals at Madrid and beat Nadal in Madrid, lost to Nadal in the semis in Barcelona, and has really only been beaten by top 10 and top tier players like Tsonga, Almagro, Del Potro and Ferrer this year.

Other than a pretty slow start in the south american clay swing and a poor showing at the Aussie, Verdascos year has been pretty impressive. The h2h is 6-1 in Verdascos favor though their last match was in 2009 but Seppis impressive stats against lefties shouldn't come into play here looking at these h2h numbers, Seppi has only won three sets in his 7 matches against Verdasco.

Verdasco made it to the round of 16 here at the French 4 years in a row until last year and Seppis results here have been pretty mediocre in Paris. Verdasco looked pretty sharp watching him against Muller and I will take the spaniard on clay here any day of the week.

Wawrinka/Simon o39.5 -105 risk 1.05

Kubot -3.5 +102 risk 1

Radawanska/Berdych/Tsonga/Azarenka -168 risk 1.68

Garrigues -1.5 +101 risk 1

Berdych/ Ivanovic/Radwanska -121 risk 1.21

Johansson/Stephens o21 -107 risk 1.07

Pennetta/Kerber o21 -109 risk 1.09

[Pew Pew]

good luck greg always like your parlays

[gregm]

There has been way too much going on with euro 2012 and nhl and nba playoffs and baseball and took some time off during clay season. I have never had good numbers betting tennis during clay but this grass swing is alot harder to get a read on this year than I thought after taking some time off. I am not taking so much of the clay swing off next year even though I dont do well betting on clay and I really dont like watching it. Its so hard to really get a read on players when you havent seen them play lately, have to update oncourt, update stats and sheets , lots of players playing well who have been typical fades (Errani,Gulbis,Tipsarevic,etc.) I dont have alot of confidence here but just taking a punt on some matches tomorrow.

Peng/Sharapova/Lisicki -122 risk 3.66

Lisicki looked really sharp in the opening round but her serve is always a liability. Lisicki is another German player that loves the grass and has done well here at Wimbledon, making the semis last year before losing to Sharapova and made it to the quarters in 2009. Sabine has fantastic numbers on the surface and should be able to handle this Serbian player who has decent numbers on the surface but really has never played at this level. If Sabine could keep her serve under control she can go far in this tourney, but thats a big if.

Peng is the better player here and pretty impressive h2h stats with Morita, neither player has been impressive this year but Pengs numbers on grass are much better than Moritas and she seems to do better at this level. Huge difference in surface numbers here, going to take a punt on Peng with this one. I hate these handicap numbers being offered, especially in the womens game, so parlaying these.

Sharapova is -1350 at 5dimes, -2000 at pinnacle?

Peng/Sharapova/Watson -120 risk 1.20

Chardy +140 risk 2 Ridiculous number for Chardy facing a guy who only plays on this surface in his career at wimbledon. I am hoping I dont get burned on this, seeing alot of people on the boards on this which is always a bad sign.

Mayer/Petzschner o41 -109 risk 1.09

Simon -1.5 +100 risk 2

Gulbis -1.5 -114 risk 1.14

This is what happens when you take some time off from betting tennis, a player like Errani who has never been in the top 30 in her career all of sudden is in the final at the French and wins Barcelona and Budapest, Gulbis beats Berdych, Washington Generals beat the Harlem Globetrotters. Putting money on Gulbis , I have no one to blame but myself.

Ernests Gulbis. God.

Sharapova/Lisicki/Gasquet/Verdasco/Benneteau +107 risk 3

[gregm]

Goffin -2.5 -115 risk 1.15

Yakimova +6 +110 risk 1

Cepelova +4.5 -114 risk 1.14

Wozniak -1.5 +109 risk 1

Dimitrov -2.5 -130 risk 1.3

Ivanovic/Bondarenko o19.5 -125 risk 1.25

Lepchenko/Pavly o20 -114 risk 1.14

Murray/Azarenka/Del Potro/Kohli/Ferrer/Kvitova/ Raonic -127 risk 3.81

Murray/Azarenka/Del Potro/Kohli/Ferrer/Kvitova/ Bartoli -159 risk 1.59

Murray/Azarenka/Del Potro/Kohli/Ferrer/Kvitova/Errani -120 risk 3.60

[gregm]

Another lottery ticket/parlay card for the day

Murray/Azarenka/Del Potro/Kohli/Ferrer/Kvitova/ Bartoli/Tsonga -140 risk 4.20

[gregm]

Youzhny +159 risk 3

Youzhny/Tipsarevic o40.5 -114 risk 1.14

Verdasco +124 risk 2

Radwanska/Clijsters -204 risk 4.08

Rus +144 risk 3

[gregm]

Cirstea/Kirilenko o21.5 -108 risk 2.16

[gregm]

Amazing how much better 5dimes is than pinny and alot of the euro books on the higher moneylines like Murray,Williams,Kvitova, Tsonga and alot more, excepting a few smaller moneylines like Kohli and Ferrer. Totals and handicaps not so much but still pretty competitive, wish it were like this all year.

Ferrer/Roddick o39.5 -108 risk 1.08

Nishikori/Del Potro o39 1-05 risk 1.05

Murray/Tsonga/Kvitova/Cilic -105 risk 6.30

Murray/Tsonga/Kvitova/Kohli -112 risk 1.12

Murray/Tsonga/Kvitova/Ivanovic +107 risk 3

Murray/Tsonga/Kvitova/Ferrer -114 risk 2.28

Murray/Tsonga/Williams/Cilic -109 risk 4.36

Murray/Tsonga/Williams/Ivanovic +104 risk 2

Shvedova +3 +102 risk 1

Shvedova/Errani o21 -108 risk 1.08

[gregm]

Wimbledon hour by hour forecast Monday

11 amJul 2

PRECIP:20% WIND:S at 14 mph

12 pm

Light Rain

PRECIP:50% WIND:S at 14 mph


1 pm

Light Rain

PRECIP:70% WIND:S at 15 mph

2 pm

Light Rain

PRECIP:80% WIND:S at 14 mph

3 pm

Rain

PRECIP:70% WIND:S at 14 mph

4 pm

Rain

PRECIP:70% WIND:S at 13 mph

• 5 pm

Rain

PRECIP:70% WIND:S at 13 mph

6 pm

Light Rain

PRECIP:70% WIND:SSW at 13 mph

7 pm

Light Rain

PRECIP:70% WIND:SSW at 13 mph

• 8 pm

Light Rain

PRECIP:70% WIND:SSW at 12 mph

7 day forecast

TodayJul 2

61^°F

59^°F
PM Rain

CHANCE OF RAIN:80% WIND:S at 15 mph

Details

TueJul 3

68^°

62^°
Light Rain

CHANCE OF RAIN:80% WIND:SSW at 13 mph

Details

WedJul 4

70^°

58^°
Showers

CHANCE OF RAIN:40% WIND:S at 12 mph

Details

ThuJul 5

70^°

57^°
Showers

CHANCE OF RAIN:40% WIND:SSW at 10 mph

Details

FriJul 6

68^°

57^°
Showers

CHANCE OF RAIN:40% WIND:SSW at 11 mph

Details

SatJul 7

66^°

57^°
Showers

CHANCE OF RAIN:40% WIND:SSW at 13 mph

Details

SunJul 8

67^°

57^°
Showers

CHANCE OF RAIN:40% WIND:W at 11 mph

Details

[gregm]

YTD 172-166 +19.64

ATP -Djokovic wins Wimbledon -102 risk 2.04

WTA- Who will win Wimbledon/Big 3 vs the field

Williams/Sharapova/Kvitova -224
The Field +200 risk 1

Peng/Kirilenko o21.5 -104 risk 1.04

Kirilenko -1.5 -107 risk 2.14

Looking at these stats this weekend, Peng dominates Rus, Rus just beat Stosur and Stosur just dominated Peng at Stuttgart? Both Kirilenko and and Peng are putting up pretty mediocre numbers this year and neither one of these players are probably ever going to be big names in the WTA, but both are coming in here serving great and putting up some great numbers. Peng utterly crushed Rus and I really thought Rus would win that one after coming off her impressive win against Stosur, but Stosurs problems go far beyond backhand errors, her forehand is a sight to behold at times. I just put too much into that win over Sam, Peng did struggle in her first match at wimbledon against 160th ranked Zaniewska but has shown some great service stats here and looked very impressive against Rus. Kirilenko actually put up even better numbers through this tourney dropping only 11 games so far here at wimbledon and winning all her matches in pretty dominating fashion.

Kirilenko put up a 80% first serve percentages against Lino and a 71% first serve percentage against Cadantu. Cirstea was struggling with her own service game but Kirilenko was pretty flawless with only 5 unforced errors all match, I saw that match and thought she looked really sharp. Both these players are putting up some great serve numbers and I do like this over here, Kirilenko doesnt have impressive numbers on grass at all and while this one is may appear to probably a toss up on the side, Kirilenko has been a little more impressive this year and looks in great form here at wimbledon so its worth a punt on the side.

Clijsters/Kerber o22 +100 risk 1

This is a pretty high total for a wta match and is the highest total today in WTA. This is Kims last wimbledon and Kerber has been one of the more impressive players on the tour this year. Clijsters has phenomenal numbers on grass and you know she is going to fight, I looked at Kerbers numbers this weekend on totals and its pretty impressive.

Even in Kerebrs losses she usually goes to three sets or reaches this 22 even in losses, she did have a 19 game loss to Sharapova in Rome, 20 game loss to Kvitova in Stuttgart, 19 game loss to Azarenka at Indian Wells, 20 game loss in copenhagen, and she did have a pretty poor showing at the Aussie losing in 15 games to Sharapova and losing in 19 games to Barthel at Hobart .The only really poor loss she had this year was to Pirinkova at Doha and I dont put too much into that. You know Kim will fight in this one and this should be a great match.

Paszek -156 risk 1.56

Paszek is coming off a pretty impressive title at Eastbourne but has pretty mediocre numbers overall for the year. She has looked really sharp at wimbledon and looked really sharp against Cornet,Woz was definitely an impressive scalp even as bad as Wozniacki has been playing. Paszek has had some success here at wimbledon making it to the quarters last year before losing to Azarenka.

Paszek is still very young but already has pretty impressive numbers on grass and I have been pretty impressed with that backhand from watching her play. She had 7 aces against Wickmayer as well. I have never had good numbers on Vinci and she has had a pretty easy draw here. Vinci has decent numbers on grass but never had much success here at Wimbledon, I am going to take a punt on the youngster here.

Baker /Kohlschreiber o40.5 -107 risk 1.07

Baker is a hell of a story, I asked my friend about him and he remembers him from the juniors. He has had a ton of injury problems but this is one hell of a comeback. Baker beat Malisse at the French and took Simon to 5 sets, but Kohli is tough on grass. You dont have much to go on here with stats for Baker, so much of it is challenger based, but its definitely worth a punt here for the over.

Much better moneyline numbers for these parlays at the offshores like 5dimes than pinny and the euro books

Federer/Djokovic/Youzhny/Gasquet -112 risk 3.36

Federer/Djokovic/Gasquet/Azarenka -136 risk 1.36

Federer/Djokovic/Kvitova/Youzhny -137 risk 1.37

Ferrer/Del Potro o40.5 -105 risk 1.05

Ferrer +1.5 sets -150 risk 1.5

Gasquet -6 +104 risk 1

Youzhny -4 -120 risk 2.4

Shvedova +4.5 +108 risk 1

[MagicDiceFlow]

Agree with you Gregm on Kirilenko. I watched that match from start to finish against Cirstea and Kirilenko is in great form right now. Is that -1.5 games or sets on your line? If that's a set line, why not lay the -140 juice and be on the safe side? -140 isnt much juice for this range of mismatch imo.

BOL

[gregm]

Thanks Magic, that is a -1.5 games line. I agree about Kirilenko, she is in great form here at wimbledon. I just saw that you were on Youzhny as well, I love the way he is playing. Another player in great form here and having a pretty phenomenal year for someone of his "supposed" skill set. He has only been losing to guys like Federer,Ferrer, and Del Potro after a tough start to the year at the Aussie. I dont like the fact that Mr. flava took a punt on him on ti based on his "simulations" but this is one where he may be right on the money. Youzhny made it to he round of 16 at wimbledon last year , losing out to Fed.

[MagicDiceFlow]

Ok, if its just a -1.5 game line then thats a good bet for Kirilenko. Those are some strong bets you have, you're going to make money tomorrow.

[gregm]

Thanks Magic and good luck to you my friend. I doubt we get many games in tomorrow

[gregm]

I thought Kim would fight in her last wimbledon? Oh well.

adding

Cilic +6 -130 risk 1.3

[gregm]

YTD 176-168 +22.64

ATP -Djokovic wins Wimbledon -102 risk 2.04

WTA- Who will win Wimbledon/Big 3 vs the field

Williams/Sharapova/Kvitova -224
The Field +200 risk 1

Federer/Djokovic/Youzhny/Gasquet -112 risk 3.36

Federer/Djokovic/Gasquet/Azarenka -136 risk 1.36

Cilic +6 -130 risk 1.3

Ferrer/Del Potro o40.5 -105 risk 1.05

Ferrer +1.5 sets -150 risk 1.5

I am not going to spend the time with write-ups tonight , I won the Kirilenko wagers but the write ups were way off with both womens service games. I go into great detail looking and researching at Kerbers totals this year and last year because I want to make sure she can give Clijsters a run for the money and take this match over the total. LOL. Pointless.

Williams -158 risk 3.16

Williams -2.5 -102 risk 1.02

Kerber -195 risk 1.95

Kerber 2-0 +135 risk 1

Fish +135 risk 1

Ferrer +130 risk 1

Radwanska/Azarenka/Robredo ( Braunschweig ) -102 risk 2.04

Radwanska/Azarenka/Berlocq ( Braunschweig ) -150 risk 3.0

[gregm]

Azarenka/Federer/Djokovic/Tsonga -110 risk 2.2

Azarenka -1.5 sets -183 risk 1.83

[gregm]

Looks like they are going to finish the radwanska match. I am probably going to regret this after the way Arad has played today.

Radwanska -135 risk 1.35

[gregm]

YTD 181-176 +15.83

ATP -Djokovic wins Wimbledon -102 risk 2.04

WTA- Who will win Wimbledon/Big 3 vs the field

Williams/Sharapova/Kvitova -224
The Field +200 risk 1

Azarenka( tuesday) /Federer/Djokovic/Tsonga -110 risk 2.2

I wasnt to impressed with Radwanska, Kerber or Azarenka today, I havent been impresed with Aza for awhile. If Azarenka serves like she did today she is going to get crushed by Serena. I am going to get out of my field futures, Serena is probably going to win this. Maybe Radwanska, but I just don't see it.

Williams to win wimbledon +113 risk 4

A little more on Nole

Djokovic to win wimbledon -165 risk 1.65

Ferrer +1.5 sets +104

Ferrer +4 +102 risk 1

Ferrer/Murray o40.5 -108 risk 1.08

[gregm]

YTD 184-177 +18.85

ATP -Djokovic wins Wimbledon -102 risk 2.04

WTA- Who will win Wimbledon/Big 3 vs the field

Williams/Sharapova/Kvitova -224
The Field +200 risk 1

Williams to win wimbledon +113 risk 4

Djokovic to win wimbledon -165 risk 1.65

Williams -2.5 -115 risk 2.30

Williams to win first set -160 risk 1.6

Radwanska +137 risk 1

Radwanska +1.5 sets -184 risk 1.84

Radwanska +1.5 sets -181 risk 1.81

Radwanska /Kerber o22.5 -105 risk 1.05

[gregm]

Bad line, probably wont stand

[gregm]

YTD 189-178 +24.17

ATP -Djokovic wins Wimbledon -102 risk 2.04

WTA- Who will win Wimbledon/Big 3 vs the field

Williams/Sharapova/Kvitova -224
The Field +200 risk 1

Williams to win wimbledon +113 risk 4

Djokovic to win wimbledon -165 risk 1.65

Murray -4.5 +115 risk 2

Murray was in an incredible rhythm on serve to end that Ferrer match, hope it continues. Ace stats in their match ups have been pretty even.

Murray most aces -115 risk 1.15

Djokovic -4 +102 risk 1

[gregm]

YTD 189-183 + 16.37

WTA- Who will win Wimbledon/Big 3 vs the field

Williams/Sharapova/Kvitova -224
The Field +200 risk 1

Williams to win wimbledon +113 risk 4

Rough day today. Getting this in tonight, there really is no value on tomorrows match. Just going to do some multisport parlays and ride out my serena futures.

Play williams on a one ball or, at worst, a book with a one set retirement rule. Rad does not sound well.

Williams/BC ml (Canadian football)-203 risk 2.03

Williams/BC ml (Canadian football)/ Angels(baseball) +131 risk 2

[gregm]

Williams -1.5 sets -195 risk 1.95

[gregm]

Serena/Rad o19.5 -108 risk 1.08

Rad says she feels better but just doesnt sound good talking. Hope we get a good match

[gregm]

YTD 192-186 +17.86

I definitely think Murray will have to serve like he did against Ferrer and Cilic and less like he did against Tsonga if he wants to have any chance of winning this. Fed was serving like a beast in that 4th set against Djokovic but the Murray return game is one of the best in tennis. Murray has had better ace stats against federer in their h2h and has some of the best numbers defending against aces in tennis.

These stats from one of the best models and blogs in tennis. Heavy topspin.com and tennisabstract.com, these are must haves for tennis bettors along with the tennis insight model and oncourt. Ace stats on players with best numbers defending against aces.

Best players for defending against Aces


Player Rank Matches vAce% expAce% Diff

Gael Monfils 1 62 3.5% 6.8% -48%

Benoit Paire 2 23 3.8% 6.3% -40%

Andy Murray 3 81 4.4% 7.3% -39%

Stanislas Wawrinka 4 61 4.2% 7.0% -39%

Cedrik Marcel Stebe 5 12 3.2% 5.2% -38%

Viktor Troicki 6 70 4.3% 7.0% -38%

Gilles Simon 7 77 4.7% 7.3% -36%

David Ferrer 8 90 5.1% 7.8% -35%

Carlos Berlocq 9 53 4.7% 7.0% -32%

Mardy Fish 10 71 5.7% 8.3% -31%


Murrays long frame should be enough to reach to get the ball back in play if Fed goes on one of his crazy serving tears like he did against Nole. Fed has the experience here and the pressure Murray is under is alot, but I hope we see a great match. I think Fed takes this but I just hope Andy can make a match of it. I sure didn't see much in the reports about Feds back during the Nole match but its still a concern.

Murray most aces -120 risk 3.6

Federer o 41.5 -107 risk 1.07

Federer -3.5 -120 risk 1.20

[gregm]

This match has been really fast, I was really curious to see how Murray came out. He looks alot better than he has in the past, Lendl has done a good job. His serve should keep him in this and make it a match but you just have to take this number on Fed. I am not counting live wagers on ytd

Federer 2nd set winner -160 risk 1.6

[gregm]

Keep this going Fed. Federer to win 3rd set -165 risk 1.65 (5dimes)

[gregm]

Federer to win 4th set -190 risk 1.9

[gregm]

YTD 195-187 +20.79

Stephens -152 risk 1.52

Mahut/Kuznetsov -115 risk 1.15

[Dad]

Solid work in this thread, Greg.

[gregm]

YTD 196-188 +20.27

Thanks Dad. Stephens chokes away the first set and just collapses in the third and I end up with a small losing day. More hype from my tennis friends about these players, more lost money for me.

Just getting this in tonight. Great number from 5dimes for Ferrer surprisingly.

Ferrer to win Bastad -140 risk 4.2

Raonic to win Newport +261 risk 2

Isner to win Newport +376 risk 1

Nishikori to win Newport +562 risk 1

I went to Newport last year and it was just comical watching Isner serve and dominate. This court does sometime have a low bounce and smaller players can benefit ( ie Rochus has made two straight finals here, in the past Santoro won two titles and Bubka had great numbers ) but Isner literally just launched serves over the head of Rochus last year. Isner has a nightmarish draw but Rochus is in pretty poor form and Nishi may win this. I am taking a punt on all three but I think one of the two big servers win here.

Raonic/Querrey/Errani/Garrigues -127 risk 1.27

Raonic/Querrey/Errani/Nishikori -120 risk 1.20

Raonic/Querrey/Nishikori/Paire +149 risk 2

Dodig +4 -125 risk 1.25

Dodig/Berlocq o21.5 +100 risk 1

Matosevic/Levine o23 +107 risk 1