[gregm]

YTD 135-121 +21.94 units

Yesterday 2-3 -2.87 units

Thank you Berdych, you are playing a guy who was in visible pain. I was watching that match in the background and every time I turned around, Dimitrov was grimacing. If I had the time to live bet I would have bet the house on Berdych. Thank God I was too busy, the atp tour is just stacking up as a very few guys here you can wager on to end up in the quarters and semis. Great job Isner tonight, why do I start to believe the hype every year. I hope this was just a bad night for John.

Parlay candidates Djokovic, Federer, Del Potro, Manchester United ml, Ferrer, Clippers ml(nba)

Djokovic/Ferrer/Federer/Del Potro -157 risk 1.57

Djokovic//Federer/Del Potro/Manchester United -142 risk 1.42

Monfils may get alot of flak, 14-4 in favor of Monaco at tennis insight but I really wonder how many of these people watch alot of tennis. Monfils hasnt really been playing bad tennis this year, he made it to the finals at Montpellier losing to Berdych in 3 sets.

Monfils beat Nadal this year at Doha, and made it to the finals at Doha where he lost to Tsonga.The loss at the Aussie was in the round of 32 to Kukushkin was not impressive and he is erratic to say the least, but what has Monaco ever done on hard courts? You have to go with the numbers here.

Djokovic/Federer/Monfils -155 risk 3.10

Going to take a stab at these.

Lisicki +178 risk 1

I know Sabine can be a head case at times and the serve is a nightmare, but I do like her fight and her numbers on the surface are way out of line with this price being offered. Na Li showing good numbers this year and certainly has great numbers on hard courts, I just sometimes question her will to continue playing the sport. Worth a punt at this price.

Ramos +171 risk 1

You have to take this number after Indian wells. Gasquet looked pretty poor against a very mediocre player like stebe and some fitness concerns here , I had some parlays with Gasquet and he really did not look sharp. Was a burden to watch that match.

Fish/Anderson o23 -108 risk 1.08

Fish has just been a cipher on my bankroll lately but he is a Floridian and has been pretty impressive the last two years in Miami. Anderson has been playing superbly and has actually shown some great numbers here at Miami the last two years. I would lean towards Anderson here but this is a tough one to call, I hope Fish puts up a fight at least in front of family. May be a long match.

Ivanovic -164 risk 3.28

I watched that Venus Williams match today and I just didn't understand how she beat Kvitova. She looked so lethargic and just put in such a poor performance that it was amazing she could even beat Wozniak. This is a great article about williams desire for the Olympics and what she is suffering from. http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/03/2...t_type=gallery

[SlimZ]

Fish/Anderson o23 -108 risk 1.08

Tailing this play! GL

[Brian891]

got a lot ridin on ferrer today. 25 pts to u if he wins as ud be my luck bringer.

[gregm]

Thanks guys. Fish playing better here, he seems to be getting a read on the Anderson serve and finally is getting his first serve in. Ferrer is a warrior and is playing some of the best tennis on the tour right now, that showing at Indian wells was just the flu.

Judging from his site he sounds fine,had great numbers in his last match against Tomic. H2h is not as good as I would like but you know Ferrer will give you your moneys worth. Ferrer actually has better hard numbers than the frenchman. Bennys numbers are pretty mediocre this year. Ferrer made it to the quarters last year at Miami and to the round of 16 the previous two years.

This line on Woz seems a little short, Wickmayer is playing decent tennis right now. She made it to the quarters at doha but looked pretty bad at indian wells. I know woz can really disappoint, I lost some coin on her against Ana but she tends to lose to top ranked people.The line dont really make sense, Woz has dominated Wickmayer in the h2h but mainly on clay, she made it to the quarters here at Miami twice, worth a punt at these numbers.

Wozniacki/Manchester United -120 risk 1.20

[Brian891]

true to my word.

[gregm]

Thanks Brian and you too BetaB. I didn't deserve anything after today, what a miserable day. I didnt even look at that Federer/Roddick match, I just added it to the parlays. I didn't have to research the match, I have been handicapping that matchup for years and its always the same result. 21-2 for Fed and there was absolutely no reason to take Roddick after his miserable start to the year.

Roddick starts the year retiring in the Aussie to Hewitt, losing to Istomin in San jose, Malisse in Memphis, Anderson in Del ray, Berdych in the round of 32 at Indian wells and then he beats Federer who is coming off 3 straight titles???

Miami is a masters event but I should have looked at Feds record here, pretty poor at Miami since 2006, but there is no way in hell I would ever have tipped Roddick against Fed after his start to the year.

I dont understand Venus, I watched the last match against Wozniak, Venus looked so lethargic and just played so poorly, tonight she roars back after the first set with alot of help from an always shaky Ivanovic. So much more energy for Venus, that Sjogrens syndrome she suffers from is a strange thing, bad for people like me watching her matches and wagering her next match, thats for sure.

Sorry slim and any other guys who looked at these matchs because of my posts, just a horrible showing. Back to the grind

Nadal/Djokovic/Murray/Williams -136 risk 2.72

Nadal/Djokovic/Murray/Tsonga -138 risk 2.76 Mayer has one of the strangest playing styles you may have seen in a while. Almost like a sidearm pitcher in baseball, fascinating to watch. I just Tsonga can handle it better than Isner. Isner is so tall, that constant kneeling down for shots is just going to shorten that career I fear. Those knees are going to be a problem.

Nadal/Djokovic/Murray/Tipsarevic -137 risk 1.37

Fish/Almagro o21.5 +102 risk 1

Sharapova O21 -102 risk 1.02 Leaning towards the over in the sharapova/ Li match when it comes out. I will be waiting for the Li/Sharapova total, these two are just destined to be a ugly match tomorrow I fear, with alot of break of serves. Sharapova has really started to fall back into the poor serving this tourney.

Ferrer/Del Potro o22 +101 risk 2

[BetaB]

I will keep tailing. I always feel that tennis can be very profitable sport as it is very hard to fix(have to bribe play + severe punishment) as indicated my large juice given by most sportbook. So i decide to allocate part of my BR for tennis capping only it won't hurt too much.

[gregm]

Thanks beta. Good luck today

Adding Roddick/Djokovic/Murray -131 risk 2.62

[gregm]

Another day in the negative with two americans, roddick and williams, losing on their home courts. I took the over in ferrer/del ptro match because I thought Ferrer would at least put up a good fight, I didnt think Del Potro would be the one totally dominated. I am hoping for a good day tomorrow or I am going to have really cut back on tennis here, getting these in tonight.

Murray/Nadal -117 risk 3.51

Murray/Pittsburgh( ncaa basketball) -168 risk 1.68

Murray/Azarenka -168 risk 1.68

Williams +3.5 -117 risk 1.17

Nadal/Bayern Munich pk/Pitt (ncaa basketball) +133 risk 1

Murray/Bayern Munich pk/Nadal +144 risk 3

Inter milan + 1 -147 risk 2.94

Milan/Barca u 1.25 f/h -139 risk 1.39

[gregm]

ytd 144-135 +16.15

The bad thing about parlays is the wild swings you can have from day to day. Fed loses to Roddick and I end up having an atrocious day on Monday and yesterday Murray hangs in there and I end up having a fantastic day. Way too much stress and swings with my bankroll entering baseball season and hockey and nba playoffs.

I am going to cut down on the size of my wagers in tennis here, I allocate a certain amount of my bankroll for each sport and tennis is entering a month of smaller clay tourneys though I really do love Monte Carlo and Charleston. I am hoping to get to charleston next week for a few matches.

Today is a perfect place to start cutting back on the size of the wagers, I think most of these matches are pretty much toss ups and I am just hoping David can show the kind of performance he had against Del Potro. He has had an unreal year so far, this would the icing on the cake if he could win this.

Bartoli +4.5 -123 risk .35 I have serious doubts about this one, Radwanska h2h is so overwhelming for Arad and Bartoli played out of her mind yesterday. I still think Azarenka could have won that match but she still seems to suffer from nerves, she just lost it after she lost that final break in the second set. Bartoli seems to have a ton of confidence right now and is hitting the ball with incredible power, I just hope she can keep it up and has the stamina for today after yesterdays match. I dont have alot of confidence with this one though.

Ferrer +4.5 -110 risk 1.10

Ferrer/Djokovic o21 +102 risk .50

Sharapova -106 risk .50 The Sharapova service game will be the key. I think the over is probably the better play here, but these wta matches are so hard to cap with totals.

Fish/Indiana ml (nba) -128 risk 1.28

[gregm]

2-3 and I gave little back today.

Murray/Nadal. I am looking at h2h on hard court numbers, weather, amd the speed of these courts as well as wondering about Andys stamina after that last match. It should not be too hot or humid so any edge you might have with Nadal over Murray might be nil in the stamina department as these are only best of 3 setsand should be nice on the court.

Murrays last match with the hydration problems and the stomach issues from last match probably wont come into play, and it doesnt seem to be too windy a day judging from weather forecast .

I would lean here with Nadal but the best wager here seems to be the over. Nadal has never won the title here at Miami, but he made the finals last year and in 2008, Nadal made 3 trips to the finals here and the semis and quarters in 2009 and 2010.

Murray had poor showings in 2011 and 2010 in Miami but won Miami in 2009. Nadals serve is what is keeping me from going with him big on the win here from nadal, his serve speed numbers were awful. I saw one second serve from Nadal made, Tsonga laughed at it because it was slow but Tsonga buried in the net.

I was shocked at how poor Nadal played against Tsonga in the second and the third, the UE's and the serving were just unimaginable from Nadal a few years ago. Nadals serve has to improve here or he may not even be a play to win the French

Nadal/Murray o22 -130 risk 1.30

Nadal -137 risk .50

[gregm]

adding Djokovic/ (Pitt/Kentucky) ncaa -140 risk 2.80

[gregm]

Sharapova -2 -120 risk 1.20

[gregm]

147-139 +14.15

Errani/valencia/Man city +113 risk 1

[nosaij]

i have missed you..

[gregm]

Thank you nosaij. Baseball is such a time consuming sport to cap but I love charleston and usually go every year but I havent had great numbers there and I decided to concentrate on baseball in april. Good luck today

[nosaij]

oh i see. thats okay. too many events on atm!! Hope you would make a MLB thread in the mlb section if you havent!

hope you cash and BOL!

[gregm]

Thank you nosaij. I do have a baseball thread and you look like you are new so you may not know we have spreadsheets on sbr. I try and keep all my picks on there, I have my own spreadsheets I use as well but I find taking the time to enter them in different places is worth the time and helps with record keeping.

[gregm]

ytd 148-139 +15.28

Fish/Sweeting/Monaco -132 risk 1.32

Sweeting won Houston last year but he isn't in form.

Isner match may be tougher than it looks, but he looked sharp in davis cup on clay beating tsonga and is playing great tennis right now.Last year they went to 21 games in houston but went 3 sets in 2010. Worth a punt at 21.5 with zeballos looking good in the previous years here at houston and playing great tennis recently. You know we will see a tiebreak with Isner

Isner/Zeballos o 21.5 -122 risk 1.22

Querrey/Anderson o23 -120 risk 1.20

[gregm]

ytd 150-140 +15.96

Fish. Battered and cooked up once again.

Cibulkova/ Isner/ Harrison +116 risk 1

Cibulkova/ Isner/Dynamo Zagreb (croatian soccer) -121 risk 1.21

[gregm]

Harrison ruined that last parlay. I want to watch some tennis and hockey tonight and I dont like this isner handicap.Sweeting can sometimes surprise.

Isner/Indiana nba/New york nba/Pittsburgh nhl +137 risk 1

[gregm]

Isner/ Bayern Munich/real madrid +104 risk 1

Isner has been playing really well this year on clay, Lopez hasnt played at all before Houston and has had a pretty easy go of it here. The over is definitely worth a look as well but just sticking with this parlay.

[gregm]

Lets try this again

Gilles simon ( -1850 at 5dimes, much different than most shops)/ Troicki/ Man U/Ajax /-194 risk 1.94

[gregm]

YTD 151-144 +12.75

Arsenal/Verdasco -206 risk 2.06

[Djohns04]

YTD 151-144 +12.75

Arsenal/Verdasco -206 risk 2.06

glgl Greg, love that parlay.. Gonna get greedy and make two parlays, one with Tomic added to Arsenal/Verdasco and the other i'm going to add Donald Young +4... both in the +175 range, hoping i can scoop atleast 1 and grab a little profit.

[Djohns04]

lol, Mathieu def Young 6-0, 6-1..... ooooooooops. Always awesome when you cap a match and you think they have a chance to win outright but instead they end up winning 1 game and almost get a standing ovation for that 1 game like he was a special needs athlete. Really thought Donald was looking better recently and ready to turn the corner but what a disaster. As they say in the market, the trend is your friend, maybe I need to wait until this guy strings some wins together before jumping aboard. Maybe basket case #2 will show up! Lets Go Tomic !!!!

[Andreibv]

What do you think of this match Fernando Verdasco-Oliver Rochus ? Fernando Verdasco -4.5 1.70

[gregm]

Wow djohns, I am so disappointed I didnt put Mathieu on that parlay, this is one of those matches I just stayed off of because of not having any data on Mathieu this year and tennis insight tips being in favor of young and seeing a few other tipsters on young as well on some other sites I use. I thought somebody might know something I dont about Mathieu .

Thats a horrible way to gamble for me, I think some punters just take dogs because it seems attractive and from a math standpoint it seems like that would work out but it always just seems to be a grind for me. Its just like in baseball, when I started seriously wagering baseball, people said never lay the chalk over 130 to -150 and take alot of + numbers, but doing that was always a grind all year judging from my sheets. The secret for me is to find the right spots, but I dont like laying -206 on a parlay, I hope arsenal comes through

[gregm]

special needs athlete.LOL. Nice hit on tomic.

[Djohns04]

Wow djohns, I am so disappointed I didnt put Mathieu on that parlay, this is one of those matches I just stayed off of because of not having any data on Mathieu this year and tennis insight tips being in favor of young and seeing a few other tipsters on young as well on some other sites I use. I thought somebody might know something I dont about Mathieu .

Thats a horrible way to gamble for me, I think some punters just take dogs because it seems attractive and from a math standpoint it seems like that would work out but it always just seems to be a grind for me. Its just like in baseball, when I started seriously wagering baseball, people said never lay the chalk over 130 to -150 and take alot of + numbers, but doing that was always a grind all year judging from my sheets. The secret for me is to find the right spots, but I dont like laying -206 on a parlay, I hope arsenal comes through

Good stuff you're right for sure. I certainly find myself at times getting caught up in betting big name dogs from time to time. Maybe a guy ranked higher than his opponent like Young in this case or maybe a big name who use to be top 10 but has now fallen off the map. I assume there's probably a complete lack of value as well since the casual bettor is saying wait.. how can "xxxx" be +200 against this guy i've never heard of. It does seem like betting dogs in tennis consistently is not the way to go. I've definitely had more success with 2-3 favs parlayed together. Tough break with Arsenal for us, certainly have had my share of parlays where the easiest leg doesn't get there. We'll get'em back tomorrow

[gregm]

Thanks djohns. Tread lightly if anyone follows this crazy multi sport parlay, I havent been profitable on these in awhile.

Nadal /Djokovic/ Liberec (czech football) /Dallas (nba) /memphis (nba) -158 risk .158

[EaglesPhan36]

Wow djohns, I am so disappointed I didnt put Mathieu on that parlay, this is one of those matches I just stayed off of because of not having any data on Mathieu this year and tennis insight tips being in favor of young and seeing a few other tipsters on young as well on some other sites I use. I thought somebody might know something I dont about Mathieu .

You can do a lot of good fading consensus dog picks on TI or so it seems the majority of the time. Today's burial if all goes according to plan would be Gilles Simon. He's tipped a ridiculous 47-18 over Tsonga right now. Not that he doesn't have a chance, but to be tipped by almost 75% of the tipsters for a match ... wonky. Yesterday, it was Tipsarevic.

I think as you mentioned earlier, seems like some of them just take dogs to take dogs without thinking about it. How anyone backs Donald Young is beyond me. He could be +10000 against a torso and I would take the torso.

[gregm]

YTD 152-145 +11.69

I have really not been wagering tennis much. I actually love watching clay , Charleston and Monte carlo are two of my favorite tourneys, but I have never had good numbers on my sheets through the year on clay to justify researching and wagering alot this time of the year, especially with all the time baseball takes to handicap.

I agree with you eagles, TI can be like observing mass psychology at times, people are only wagering TI points so it really doesnt matter and I really don't trust most tipsters who dont have write ups unless they have been there awhile. The leaders in the roi,tips,money leaders etc, change every period and alot of it is just guys getting lucky picking alot of dogs. There are a few punters I do see on there at the top alot though.

Nadal/ Ferrer o19 -115 risk .50

[gregm]

YTD 153-145 +12.12

Ferrer/Federer o21.5 -106 risk 2.12

Ferrer +4 -104 risk 1.04

[gregm]

YTD 153-147 +8.96

Peer hasnt been playing very well but she has only had a brief period where she was really blown off the court back in the Aussie and in Paris. Peer has not lost all year in any match by 7 games other than those two tourneys and never lost by 7 games to Azarenka in her career. Maybe she can even make a match of this but I really dont need alot here to win this wager, just hold serve a few times each set.

Peer +7 -107 risk 2.14