[MakePwithMe]

Good luck! I like your draw bet (10 units a bit much) and the Everton ov.

thanks, ye 10 is too much im going all in had enough

[SarahPalin]

shoulda just went with 1 bet mate some.

[MakePwithMe]

shoulda just went with 1 bet mate some.

na cuz i dnt know which is the best one so going big hoping to win 3 out of 5 really hope the draw hits

[Merkel]

When on a bad run, the worst thing you could do is multiply your picks and units, but everybody does it, that's why books are rich and trolls like Palin still live at home and bring shame to their parents.

[Coolcanuck79]

2 goals in the Everton game by the 31st minute and they just can't get the third. Just over 5 mins left to net the over.

[MakePwithMe]

thats just my luck won't be surprised if 0-0 and west ham score with 1 min left

[MakePwithMe]

YTD 9-24-1 -71.73u

How unlucky was that? Fulham late goal, not 1 single goal for the over ahhh well least I got some p left to bet it all for later, going for a big one.

[MakePwithMe]

England Premier League 4/27
Chelsea ML 4.85 28.27u

Yep risking all that I have left for chelsea tomorrow, 28.27u to win 108.84u, if this hits I will have 37 unit profit just the basis I need to start with a different approach.

[SarahPalin]

England Premier League 4/27
Chelsea ML 4.85 28.27u

Yep risking all that I have left for chelsea tomorrow, 28.27u to win 108.84u, if this hits I will have 37 unit profit just the basis I need to start with a different approach.

why this? when liverpool is inform and all papers say jose might start with a weak team to make sure hes ready for champions league

[MakePwithMe]

why this? when liverpool is inform and all papers say jose might start with a weak team to make sure hes ready for champions league

one thing i've learnt about the premier league never listen to the papers.

[Merkel]

why this? when liverpool is inform and all papers say jose might start with a weak team to make sure hes ready for champions league

As usual, Palin should stick to the fix thread. Moron.

MakeP, or whoever you are, going all in is always a bad idea. I don't see what you would do different a second time around. Either make betting on sports a hobby and accept that you will lose money on it, but lose what you can afford and have fun with it, or just quit altogether.
Making money and/or a living off of betting is one of these urban myths, sure some people actually do, but 90% of bettors lose long term.

As far as Pool-Chelsea goes, Mourinho has won 6 of his last 8 EPL matches against Pool. A changed line up does not mean a weak Chelsea team, I expect Mourinho to deny Pool the space they need and take advantage of Pool's defensive bungles.
Can I see Liverpool winning? Sure. This match, no matter how attractive the media make it out to be is a no-play for me, because of the particular situational angle.
Either way, win or lose, you might want to seriously consider how much time and money you're willing to spend on this.

[MakePwithMe]

Thanks Merkel,

I just need this I don't have much money its a small bankroll what ever happens I am going to start betting 1u so when I lose it doesn't hurt as much, I just can't use a more discipline approach when I am -70 units in the negative if you know what I mean like Palin said the double increase your bet so you can wipe your losses.

Ive learnt a lot from this so I am fairly new guess I just had to bet it all on Chelsea please 15mins left.

[SarahPalin]

very nice push man always works dont listen to merkel he never posts plays for a reason

[MakePwithMe]

very nice push man always works dont listen to merkel he never posts plays for a reason

no offence but merkel knows his stuff

[MakePwithMe]

England Premier League 4/27
Chelsea ML 4.85 28.27u WIN

Yep risking all that I have left for chelsea tomorrow, 28.27u to win 108.84u, if this hits I will have 37 unit profit just the basis I need to start with a different approach.

YTD 10-24-1 +37.11u

Thank you chelsea!!! that win has saved my ass and wiped all my losses!!! god dam i needed that very stupid to go all in but i just had enough, 37u profit sticking to 1 unit to stake & win, GET IN!!! trolls can gtfo now

[MakePwithMe]

why this? when liverpool is inform and all papers say jose might start with a weak team to make sure hes ready for champions league

never listen to the papers

[MakePwithMe]

YTD 10-24-1 +37.11u
Arsenal V Newcastle O3 1.83 2 units

[MakePwithMe]

chaps, dont this seem stupid? i increased my bankroll over 37 units but my win/loss doesn't reflect and i dont want to look an idiot because i want to take a disciplined approach so it doesnt seem logical i have them units because it was a big play should i withdraw the profit i made and start the approach with the deposit i intially started with? i put in £500 and have over 680 quid so if i withdraw lets say 180 to keep 500 then continue from 0-0 0 units what you think?

i say this because im trying to learn different methods in gambling i think 1 unit or 2 unit or 3 unit is the best system for discipline and it helps to keep track on what im doing right or wrong seems wrong because the way i got my money back was not discipline.

[Vaughany]

Nice hit!

And yes it is stupid in theory...obviously if you keep doing it you are going to lose your bankroll. You could now try using half kelly staking with a set bankroll if you are serious about making gradual profits rather than going all in on something as soon as u have a bad run

[Merkel]

Are you doing this to look good to a bunch of strangers on an internet forum? That motivation will probably not help your win/loss ratio, it leads to doubling up, chasing on bad days etc....

You want to start over go right ahead, but unless you change the way you bet, the outcome will likely be the same again. Some of the most successful guys I know in this business have a win/loss % of around 60 to 65, that doesn't look all that impressive, but it sure pads their accounts, that is of course with paying as little juice as possible etc...

I don't post any plays here and I don't give a shit, my business is not here, only my giggles, I know how I pay my bills and I'm ok with that. My best advice to you is withdraw the lot and only bet small on weekends for fun. Posting here will not get you glory.
But then again, it's a free country. Toodles.

[MakePwithMe]

Ok thanks for the input guys,

You two clearly know what your talking about so I've took both approaches on board, I have withdraw the 180 profit i made, and starting with a bankroll of £500 using the kelly strategy the calculater says £12.5 is 1unit i think

The Kelly criterion is maximally aggressive — it seeks to increase capital at the maximum rate possible. Professional gamblers typically take a less aggressive approach, and generally won't bet more than about 2.5% of their bankroll on any wager.

so 12.5 for each unit using a discipline approach is that workable? average odds would be something like 1.91 so wouldnt be making much slow n steady.

[MakePwithMe]

i dont think i fully understand the kelly system, the only thing i know is a disciplined approach in gambling means betting in units, something in the range of 1-3 units, a 500 bankroll 1 unit could be like 7.5 and 2 units is something like 12.50 which is 2.5% which is what that kelly calculater is recommending i bet.

[SarahPalin]

man dont listen to the haters your a bad ass dude and up units bro keep doing whats working and thats what your doing dont change or youll see bad results

[MakePwithMe]

man dont listen to the haters your a bad ass dude and up units bro keep doing whats working and thats what your doing dont change or youll see bad results

thanks but i got lucky today chelsea defended well, i just need a system which doesnt depleat my bankroll so much a strategy which allows me to recover if i have a bad week something which can work in my favour because i can go on a winning streak and hit 65% by doing that i want to be in a position to make a profit, kelly or martingale?

[Vaughany]

Ok thanks for the input guys,

You two clearly know what your talking about so I've took both approaches on board, I have withdraw the 180 profit i made, and starting with a bankroll of £500 using the kelly strategy the calculater says £12.5 is 1unit i think

The Kelly criterion is maximally aggressive — it seeks to increase capital at the maximum rate possible. Professional gamblers typically take a less aggressive approach, and generally won't bet more than about 2.5% of their bankroll on any wager.

so 12.5 for each unit using a discipline approach is that workable? average odds would be something like 1.91 so wouldnt be making much slow n steady.

There is no set percentage of bankroll, and it is very agressive which is why most use quarter-kelly or half-kelly so that you are being more conservative.

Use this calculator.. http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/
So in your instance you'd enter $500 for bankroll.
Then for example, if you were interested in Newcastle pulling off the upset and winning tonight, you'd enter the odds offered in fractional form - 13/1 (+1300). Then conservatively estimate the percentage that you think Newcastle would win - i.e if you think they win 10% of the time when playing at Arsenal (1 out of 10 games, or 10 out of a 100, etc...) then you'd enter that, then click calculate bet and below it will give you a summary. With this example it will tell you that odds would be in your favour and optimal bet would be 3.08% of bankroll ($30). This is based on full-kelly though, as said above most use half-kelly or even quarter.

Obviously if your estimated percentage is way off then this doesnt work, but it at least highlights how ridiculous it is mathematically if you are throwing $250 on for example Newcastle to win when your bankroll is $500. If you did that it would imply that you think Newcastle win the game 30.5% of the time, which clearly is ridiculous.

And by no means am I an expert or anything, I've lost over 50% of my bankroll in space of a few hours before chasing losses where I completely disregarded the concept of bankroll management. That's the main reason I try to use kelly and that specific calculator as much as possible...it at least highlights the absurdity of certain bets that you have/want to make!

[kainomac]

what's your prediction of the score for arsenal v newcastle ?

[MakePwithMe]

There is no set percentage of bankroll, and it is very agressive which is why most use quarter-kelly or half-kelly so that you are being more conservative.

Use this calculator.. http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/
So in your instance you'd enter $500 for bankroll.
Then for example, if you were interested in Newcastle pulling off the upset and winning tonight, you'd enter the odds offered in fractional form - 13/1 (+1300). Then conservatively estimate the percentage that you think Newcastle would win - i.e if you think they win 10% of the time when playing at Arsenal (1 out of 10 games, or 10 out of a 100, etc...) then you'd enter that, then click calculate bet and below it will give you a summary. With this example it will tell you that odds would be in your favour and optimal bet would be 3.08% of bankroll ($30). This is based on full-kelly though, as said above most use half-kelly or even quarter.

Obviously if your estimated percentage is way off then this doesnt work, but it at least highlights how ridiculous it is mathematically if you are throwing $250 on for example Newcastle to win when your bankroll is $500. If you did that it would imply that you think Newcastle win the game 30.5% of the time, which clearly is ridiculous.

And by no means am I an expert or anything, I've lost over 50% of my bankroll in space of a few hours before chasing losses where I completely disregarded the concept of bankroll management. That's the main reason I try to use kelly and that specific calculator as much as possible...it at least highlights the absurdity of certain bets that you have/want to make!

Ok thanks great post! I get it now so for each bet I use this calculator, as you said full kelly is quite aggressive, do you think its wise switching bets im more confident in to full kelly then changing to half ? would that work?

[MakePwithMe]

what's your prediction of the score for arsenal v newcastle ?

I think we will see a few goals in this one, 4-1 Arsenal maybe

[MakePwithMe]

Ok what is this

Bets must be multiples of:	$
The minimum bet allowed is:

[MakePwithMe]

i have over 3 arsenal game 1.83 i got yesterday i put 2 units so if i used the calculator how would i do this so odds would be 83/100 500 bankroll i would say this would hit at least 60% of the time? then what figure below do i use the optimal bet that is the full kelly right? i got 11.81% so im confident in this one i would stake 59 quid any other time i would half and do 30 quid.

[MakePwithMe]

Arsenal V Newcastle O3 1.83 2 units PUSH

YTD 0-0-1 0.00u

Had a feeling Newcastle would score dammit.

[MakePwithMe]

i have over 3 arsenal game 1.83 i got yesterday i put 2 units so if i used the calculator how would i do this so odds would be 83/100 500 bankroll i would say this would hit at least 60% of the time? then what figure below do i use the optimal bet that is the full kelly right? i got 11.81% so im confident in this one i would stake 59 quid any other time i would half and do 30 quid.

Vaugh mate I need you to clarify if i have it right here? was 11.81 the kelly strategy? otherwise i might just bet 2 units per game

[MakePwithMe]

YTD 0-0-1 0.00u

Bayern -.5 1.80 2u

[MakePwithMe]

2 unit system

ytd 0-0-1 0.00u

[MakePwithMe]

4/29
Bayern -.5 1.80 2u
Bayern To Advance 2.62 2u