Hello gentlemen, I'm John from belgium, been a gambler for 3 years now ( feels like some gambler anonymous meeting )and I've never noted my picks anywhere so I think its time to do that so I can keep a track on them and maybe improve my discipline and overall improve myself.
Bankroll management : System based on 100 units, bets varying from 1 to 5 units depending on strength
How my system works : I found out that I can extract the most value by betting live and so far it was the most profitable way for me. I put my eyes pregame on some games and then bet on them live where I can observe how the game is played, chances, morale, etc.
90% of my games are played live, except unders and positive handicaps ( i.e +0.25, +0.5 on a given team ) that will lose its value live.
I always do my homework, research the teams I bet on and base my picks on probability versus given odds, statistics and sometimes in-form status.
I usually like to exploit goods odds when the probability for that team to win is high. Let me give you an example: Yesterday chelsea vs basel, I consider the line -0.75 @ 1.95 ( minute 24 ) to be good value, a bet I would take. Now when and if basel scores ( like it happened ) the line -1 @ 2.02 is the kinda bet I stalk.
Now onto the picks. I will write in this thread the picks I'm considering taking, the line I'm considering taking and most importantly the line and odds I'm waiting for live.
5/3/2013.
Steau Bucuresti - Pandurii. Currently the line would be -1 @ 1.8 -> awaiting either -0.75 @1.8 or -1 @ 2.00. 2 units
Excelsior - Cambuur. Considering taking the over and Cambuur to win -> awaiting odds for the over 2.75 @ 1.8+ and the -0.75 line to be at evens. 1.5 units each
Celta Vigo -Bilbao. Over 1.5 @1.8+ if I will be able to take it. 1.5 units
None of these bets have yet been taken, awaiting line movements live; may or may not take.
The following bets have already been placed.
Chateauroux - Nimes. I do not see Nimes winning this round. Laying 0.5 units on Chateauroux and 0.5 units on Draw. Both @ 3.00.
Waregem - Genk. This is a bad bet but I like to reward myself with bets like these from time to time. Putting 1 unit on draw @ 3.5
Not writing any thoughts on these, unless asked.