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Albinoleffe and Portogruaro won.
On Seconda I got three pushes (Castiglione and very unluckily Venezia and Fondi too, goal at 95' minute), two clear losses (VdA and Aquila).
2-2-3 for the day and about half of a unit of profit (+0.45 to be accurate).
Italian Job worked for the 4th straight weekend.
Have a nice Sunday guys!
TSA 2012/2013 ITALIAN SOCCER RECORD
17.5 W - 10 L - 7.5 P (63.64% SR)
+8.22u (+29,89% Yield)
Nice work bro
After terrible day yesterday all my picks today hit apart from Udinese PK which was a push. Also had Inter PK, -0.5 and I hit the PK line live-in-play when they were 1-0 up so tht hit as well, and I had Sampdoria PK which I posted last week on here.... unfortunately the profits from all those came nowhere near to what I lost on Monaco, Spezia and REal MAdrid!Originally Posted by Vaughany
Italy » Serie B » Padova - Reggina (Reggina +0.5 @1.970)
I'm not a big fan of how Reggina was overrated and pumped over any legit feeling this preseason but they're a young team trying to find a place in the middle of the table and for what I saw in game against Modena they're definitely improving.
On the other side stands Padova, a team with great expectations but which struggled to find a win yet this season.
So far at home they faced two very average teams like Grosseto and Lanciano and both times they failed to prevail.
After last draw (honestly a good one in Brescia) there were some speakings about a possible sack of manager Fulvio Pea in case of another bad performance at home next saturday but now the situation seems more quiet.
I think Padova is not at 100% yet and they will have a load of pressure in week 5, instead this brand new Reggina, on the road and with a lot less to lose than before, could impress and take home a point.
A price near the EV line for the X2 is definitely worth a try.
Italy » Serie B » Juve Stabia - Varese (Juve Stabia -0.25 @2.260)
This is not a pick against Varese but I do fancy Juve Stabia over last two matches and I go with them for this week.
Playing in Castellammare is always tough and despite the loss in the opener (against a superb Livorno) this will be the strenght of Juve this season.
Draw collected in Novara was good and absolutely positive for future prospectives. I'm sure they're starting to connect each other and if Sasà Bruno will finally find the way to the net it will be hard to took points of "Menti" this year.
The -0.25 is a good solution considering the not so unlikely draw but if anyone saw Varese defense in last match against Bari a win for Juve is not so impossible, especially in a stadium where the public is the real 12th man on the field (and the city really want the first win of this season, as they were very close in both games disputed so far in Castellammare).
Varese still have some issues to be considered (and to consider themselves too) a real contender for Serie A and a loss in Campania will not be considered such a shame.
Italy » Serie B » Lanciano - Grosseto (Lanciano -0.25 @2.260)
Ok, Grosseto is an highly potential team (which is actually struggling) and ok, Lanciano will play again in Pescara and not really at home, but bookies are showing absolutely no love to abruzzesi.
Looking at the standings (leaving apart points deduction) Lanciano is 4th-to last right now, with just two points and clearly in the middle of relegation battle.
But considering they're credited of the forecasted last place in Serie B starting the season this could be considered as a decent starting point.
On Saturday they'll host Grosseto, which is clearly under his likely position in the standings 'cause of the lack of finalization of the huge amount of opportunities they're able to create.
And this could be the key: despite their position Lanciano have a solid defense and it will be hard for Grosseto to score.
I see this match as decided by a single play and it could be even a Lanciano's one.
High draw probability anyway so I'm going with the safest -0.25 (well rewarded anyway).
Glad I avoided Spezia today...Sassuolo win again.
On Bologna -0.5, -1 tomorrow....coming off tht amazing comeback at Olimpico, gotta think this is perfect time to get their first home win of the season against weakest team in the league in Pescara.
Also like Palermo +1 A.H., Napoli PK, Catania/Napoli Over 1 goal in first half, and Inter
Last edited by Vaughany; 09-23-12 at 05:58 AM.
Inter to win LIVE @+112 seems a gift with about 30' to play.
It's worth a try.
These are the three plays I like the most for tonight in Serie B:
Italy » Serie B »Grosseto - Juve Stabia (Grosseto +0 @1.840)
Last weekend I played against Grosseto and I backed Juve Stabia and I lost 1.5 u on these two wagers. Now I'm back on my steps because if Juve Stabia is the one we saw at Menti on Saturday I highly doubt they could avoid the relegation with ease this season.Few days ago I picked correctly Grosseto's first win and they didn't stop since, pulling out a winner against Lanciano with a very effective type of play.
Today I really don't understand these odds because a Juve Stabia yet without a single win is offered around 45+% at DNB?
Grosseto is very hard to beat at home and they scored at least once on each of the last 5 games in Toscana. This could mean Juve need two goals to took a win from there a target they failed every match since the start of the season. The pk offers a nice backup in case of a draw but imho Grosseto have a great chances to win if they'll be able to find the net as they did in last two games.
Italy » Serie B »Varese - Verona (Varese -0.25 @2.080)
This is available at @2.26 on some other bookies too and that price could be huge. Some people think that after Friday disappointment Verona could be back on track very fast but I saw how Varese played in Castellammare and I was astonished. They've a so solid team that will be very hard to beat this year, especially at home.
Ebagua has a huge talent and a terrific score%. Half of my stake back in case of a draw and a big +EV price for this home win? I'm definitely in!
Italy » Serie B »Novara - Spezia (Novara -0.25 @2.060)
Spezia is absolutely downtrend compared to one month ago and this price is nice considering probably their ratings will drop a lot in case of another negative result. My only concern here is the inability of Novara to win at home this season, despite having faced weak opponents like Juve Stabia and poor Empoli.
I expect a goalfest here.
It's worth a look also on:
- Lanciano
- Ascoli (Cesena is far from the right connection).
TSA 2012/2013 ITALIAN SOCCER RECORD
17.5 W - 12.5 L - 8 P (58.33% SR)
+5.72u (+19,07% Yield)
If you expect a goal fest so over is one whe can play in Novara -Spezia ?
I'm sorry I'm late but yes, I like the over 2.25 here. Or you can wait until the Over 2 will reach the even IN-LIVE.
dont worry , i dont play it beacuse i must go to play basketball witj my team. So ok no problem
my friend. Thanks for your replay .
Wow no goals so far in Novara/Spezia. Thought it would go over as well, glad I stayed away!
Well this is one of the reasons I never advice to bet on O/U (at least in my writeups).
I'm going pretty well with sides plays so I'm gonna stick with that... Glad none of you played the O/U anyway!
Oh, by the way, Novara got a very deserved win (and it could easily be 2 or 3 to nil), let's ca$h this one!!!
Yeah great call on Novara bud
Not a very interesting day for me with 1 W 1L 1P but at least I was right on Ascoli and Lanciano (they had to win sooner or later).
TSA 2012/2013 ITALIAN SOCCER RECORD
18.5 W - 13.5 L - 9 P (57.81% SR)
+5.78u (+18,06% Yield)
ANNOUNCEMENT: in order to improve my (already good) record and yield I've decided to pull out of the contention Serie A (lines are too sharp) and Seconda Division (too much variance).
In addition to this please note I'll post the best price available between these 7 bookmakers only:
- PinnacleSports
- SBObet
- Bet365
- 5Dimes
- Ladbrokes
- BetVictor
- The Greek
AH lines for Serie B are finally out, so let's start capping something.
Italy » Serie B » Novara - Ternana (Ternana +0.5 @2.130)
I was pretty sure early line movements would be in favour of Novara and it was indeed.
But imho a +113 for a double chance is decent enough to try something in favour of the road team here.
Novara is too much dependable from their strikers Gonzales (4 goals so far, impressive player) and Mehmeti (3) but they actually didn't have a strong play-style and when they face some difficulties upfront or one of the two is in a bad day problems came out quickly. Plus Mehmeti will be again doubtful for the match due to an injury.
Ternana kept clean sheet against Crotone for the third time in a row and could lineup one of the most solid keepers in the whole Serie B (Ambrosi, first season in this division, just one goal conceded in 4matches), which was the MVP last monday. It was just that team performance in such a great match (against one surprising team like calabresi) which caught my eyes.
Ternana is steadily improving during last week and they have just to refine their ability to score to raise their chances of a quiet and interesting season.
Novara, despite their offensive weapons, failed to score more than once 4 times out of 6 games played, and it will be hard against a solid defense like Ternana's one and if without Mehmeti I can't see a Novara clear fav for the win here.
I hope I'll be able to watch this game because I really think it will be open up and very interesting.
Italy » Serie B » Lanciano - Modena (Lanciano +0 @1.850)
Really like this price. As you could see I backed very often Lanciano because I absolutely hate how bookies are underrating them (mainly because public think they'll be relegated already in March).
This short preview of the season already showed a shaped Lanciano definitely not many steps away to be a decent serie B team.
If you take a deeper look to their past results you could see they stopped Padova on the road in their opener, they won against Reggina and they lost at home only against talented Varese.
Next saturday Modena is coming to town and this is a very up&down squad but imho for sure not a top one.
Moden so far faced a lot of very good teams (Verona, Varese, Livorno) collecting good results but I'm not so sure they're really so good or just extramotivated by these matchups (even because they got a decent amount of luck, to be clear).
Anyway this is a bet for Lanciano, not against Modena, because even if Canarini are really fun to watch I think Lanciano should be able to repeat an effort like that one against Grosseto or last one in Reggio Calabria and if it will be the case a draw (a push for us) will be the worst possible outcome.
Modena is a low scoring team and Lanciano have a solid defense (6 goals allowed in 6 matches) so expect a tight game here.
1-1 correct score could be interesting to try for degens.
Italy » Serie B » Verona - Bari (Bari +0.5 @2.130)
Square thinking mode on: "WTH? Verona won 3-0 on the road just two days ago against a strong opponent and now they're offered at home with such a low juice? POUND IT BABY!!!" /Square thinking mode off.
Too easy huh? Let's take a different angle on this one.
Bari have yet to lose a match this season: they're 6th with 7 points after 6 matches but they started with a 7 points deduction and it's a sign of a really strong effort.
Verona won just 50% of last 10 years home H2H against Bari (8 total matchups).
Verona already tied at home against Novara and Spezia this season, two teams which are less effective than Bari (looking at points production).
Am I convinced Bari will 100% pull out at least a draw from here? Of course not. Is there some value in backing Bari DC well above the even? Definitely yes.
I don't think Bari is stronger than Verona, especially considered the home field advantage scaligeri could have in a loud stadium like Bentegodi: they have Cacia and Bacinovic, two players who could easily play in Europe and an entire city which want to revenge last season disappointment.
It's just I don't like the low odds given to Bari, so it's a pure value oriented pick. To me it's a 50%-50% game (50% Verona - 50% draw or, very unlikely, Bari) instead for the bookies is 55-45 and a 5% value is enough to give it a try.
My only concern is the fact Bari is still slightly unexposed against stronger teams and I don't know how they could perform in this kind of matches.
Italy » Lega Pro C1/A » Sudtirol - Carpi (Sudtirol +0 @1.910)
I'm pretty curious to see this game because I'm still not totally sold on real value of Carpi.
Sudtirol is not so bad and this could really be one of the most intruiguing matchups of Week 5 in Prima Divisione.
Probably people in Carpi too don't know if they're good for real to try reaching the promotion in serie B or if the board is speaking seriously when they told publicly about "avoiding relegation asap" as the season goal.
On paper home team is an interesting mix of young talented players and solid ones for this division. Let's see what will happen here.
Italy » Lega Pro C1/A » Albinoleffe - Treviso (Albinoleffe -0.5 @1.970)
Entering the season I'd never thought I'd have played this side in a similar game after just 4 weeks but now seems a more than logical pick.
Albinoleffe is not a designated victim for the relegation as it seemed at a first glance, instead they didn't lost a single game so far stopping big Cremonese in Cremona and crushing Entella (another division fav) 3-1 just 10 days ago.
In addition to this Treviso had offered one of the worst shows in the history of football so far this season: 0 points in 4 games (!) 5 goals scored and 12 conceded (!!!). They're not really bad, despite being newly promoted from Seconda, but they faced three of the 5/6 best teams in this division and were badly beated each time. Most worrying part for them, anyway, was an home defeat as favourite against modest Cuneo in the season opener.
I'm not worryied about the fact they scored in each of the 4 games played because Albinoleffe already shown they're able to reach te net more than once, so I'm going with this one with decent confidence.
Forgot to mention that yesterday Treviso was penalized by 1 point (deducted immediately) due to the lack of warrancy funds when the team applied for the subscription in Prima Divisione last summer.
any thoughts on siena vs bologna?
i was looking at a draw here..
cheers
Taking a shot at Siena vs Bologna over 2.5
GL
Sorry, I'm late.
I already gave my 2cents on that match in another thread.
Italy » Lega Pro C1/B » Carrarese - Benevento (Carrarese +0.25 @1.910)
Benevento entered the season as huge fav for the promotion to Serie B. They already have a decent Serie B roster probably, for sure the most experienced and talented in this group of Prima Divisione.
Anyway they already suffered two losses against contenders (Perugia and Avellino) and they're in the middle of the pack with 6 points after 4 weeks.
Carrarese on paper isn't so bad but they weren't able to win a single point so far this season and already last sunday they were close to took a draw in Viareggio. I don't think this streak could last so much long, Carrarese (the owner is Juventus keeper Buffon) couldn't afford 5 losses in a row and a draw against a not so fit Benevento, which sometimes play very average despite their classy players, is not unlikely. Indeed I think toscani could also surprise everyone and win this one. First time this season I see such odds for an home team, can't pass.
Italy » Lega Pro C1/B » Viareggio - Latina (Viareggio -0.25 @2.120)
Viareggio is playing very good and despite Latina is red hot I think a win in Stadio dei Pini is very unlikley for them. These odds, giving me half of my stake back in case of a draw, are very interesting because I think Viareggio could beat Latina on sunday at home.
To me these two teams are not so different and of course home field advantage could play a major role here.
I expect a spectacular match but I give an edge to Viareggio.
Yep, serie A again. I'm not reliable when I promise something...
Italy » Serie A » Sampdoria - Napoli (Sampdoria +0.25 @2.090)
Sampdoria: Romero - Berardi, Gastaldello, Rossini, Costa - Munari, Krsticic, Obiang, Estigarribia - Icardi, Eder.
Napoli: De Sanctis - Campagnaro, Cannavaro, Aronica - Maggio, Dzemaili, Behrami, Zuniga - Hamsik - Pandev, Cavani.
When I cap a football game I use games data, stats and finally I mix all up with my knowledge of the league/teams involved, trying to keep feelings and emotions out of the process.
This game makes no difference: Sampdoria is 3rd in the league after 5 weeks, Napoli is 2nd.
Samp already beaten Milan and stopped Roma (both matches on the road) last time out; Napoli is considered the first contender for the Serie A title immediately behind Juventus.
For this match Samp will miss Maresca and Maxi Lopez and replacement Pozzi is doubtful for the game (due to an injury) so the forwards would be Eder and the youngster Icardi.
The absence of Maresca and Poli will be huge for Samp on the middle of the field, because Obiang and Krsticic are nothing compared to the former two. But Samp is well known to play also a lot on the wings and this could be a tactical key for this match.
In addition I'm not so scared about the offense: Sampdoria already scored with a lot of guys so, despite missing Maxi will be hard, they still have chances to find the net on sunday.
The defense will be the key, as Napoli is absolutely scarying when attack but everyone is available out there so don't expect Napoli to score with ease in Genova.
Home field advantage will be HUGE: Sampdoria fans hates Napoli ('cause of their relationship with rival team Genoa) and except for the last season, when Samp was in serie B, this matchup was played each year since 2008 and home team won twice, collecting a tie and lost only once.
I'm not saying the absence of Maxi, Maresca and Poli will not affect Sampdoria effectivness at all but thinking that a team still undefeated in the season should be underdog at home against a Napoli which NEVER impressed in the past when playing on the road and also during the afternoon (not mentioned in the available stats) is simply too much.
Ferrara, Samp coach, is from Napoli and he knows he's playing a lot of his future this year (as he decided to left national u-21 team to be the head coach for blucerchiati): his chances to be on the bench of a bigger team in the future depend also from this kind of matchup.
Just a fast fact about people from Napoli playing against azzurri: I remember, 15 years ago, another guy from Napoli playing probably one of the best matches of his entire career against Napoli right there in Marassi. His name was Vicenzo Montella (yes, that Vincenzo Montella) and in that match he realized an hat-trick, included the 95' penalty for the 6-3 final.
Vincenzo Di Natale (from Naples too) scored 3 goals against Napoli twice in recent years (8 totals in 8 matchups). I hope Ferrara could reach the same success as a coach against his home team.
Napoli on the road is hugely overrated and Samp couldn't be considered so bad at home just because they'll be without their best two players (this is not basketball, 2 players out of 11 mean something not everything).
Contrarian play for me on this one.
Italy » Serie A » Parma - AC Milan (Parma +0.25 @1.850)
Once again without Pato and with Robinho not likely to start Milan is still on the hot seat despite win in San Siro against Cagliari.
Parma is not offering such a great football as of now but they are unbeaten at home after two matches at Tardini and Milan (in my opinion, of course) is really far from putting all the issues behind of them.
Of course they'll step back on track at some point because they're not so bad as the standings are telling us but I hope and I think this will not happen tomorrow.
I like the draw here. Key player to watch: El Sharaawy.
Yeah they are going to miss Maxi Lopez and Enzo Maresca a lot, but if they defend deep I wouldnt rule out a draw either. Napoli looked totally inept away at Catania - even against 10 men for 90 minutes of the game they couldnt score...I couldnt believe it as I had a play on on Napoli....seems when teams defend deep and dont leave space in between defence and GK Napoli dont know how to score. It helped Catania that Cavani was hopeless all game as well!
You got the point Vaugh.
Samp is not the prototypical football team, they are very tough defensively and they'll be more than this without Maxi and Pozzi.
They could also score in every situation with every player and playing in Marassi will give to blucerchiati an extra boost so basically it is a 33%-33%-33% type of game to me. Having Samp offered well above the even on the pk, -0.5 (+110 on Pinny right now) sounds good for a try.
nice start HT 1-0Italy » Serie B » Lanciano - Modena (Lanciano +0 @1.850)
Really like this price. As you could see I backed very often Lanciano because I absolutely hate how bookies are underrating them (mainly because public think they'll be relegated already in March).
This short preview of the season already showed a shaped Lanciano definitely not many steps away to be a decent serie B team.
If you take a deeper look to their past results you could see they stopped Padova on the road in their opener, they won against Reggina and they lost at home only against talented Varese.
Next saturday Modena is coming to town and this is a very up&down squad but imho for sure not a top one.
Moden so far faced a lot of very good teams (Verona, Varese, Livorno) collecting good results but I'm not so sure they're really so good or just extramotivated by these matchups (even because they got a decent amount of luck, to be clear).
Anyway this is a bet for Lanciano, not against Modena, because even if Canarini are really fun to watch I think Lanciano should be able to repeat an effort like that one against Grosseto or last one in Reggio Calabria and if it will be the case a draw (a push for us) will be the worst possible outcome.
Modena is a low scoring team and Lanciano have a solid defense (6 goals allowed in 6 matches) so expect a tight game here.
1-1 correct score could be interesting to try for degens.
Serie B looked very good at HT, not so much at 90'.
1-1-1 day with a +0.13u profit.
Luckiliy I got the correct score on Lanciano game.
TSA 2012/2013 ITALIAN SOCCER RECORD
19.5 W - 14.5 L - 10 P (57.35% SR)
+5.91u (+17,38% Yield)
Milan Milan... too much predictable mr. Allegri.
Good morning guys.
Just woke up and I'd like to share some random thinking about Cagliari and Pescara.
SBO line is -0.75 now with Cagliari priced 1.94 and Pescara at even.
Key missing: Cagliari will be without their best player Conti (cap.) and they'll miss Cossu too.
Stadium: Is Arenas will be opened for the first time this year but only subscribers of supporter card (no ultras) will be allowed to enter. No more than a few thousands of people estimated.
Pescara: Pelizzoli has been awarded of the starting position after two amazing performances and the squad come from a great win in Palermo. A positive result could be a huge boost of confidence for these guys.
Summary: two evenly matched teams which love to play ball but struggle when it comes to finalizing. Cagliari at home but without their best player (he averages 10%+ of the shots and he is the playmaker of the squad) and Cossu (majority of offensive plays start from him).
Final thoughts: is this line crazy?
BOL everyone guys, have a nice day!
TSA 2012/2013 ITALIAN SOCCER RECORD
20 W - 10.5 V - 14.5 L (57.97% SR)
+6.34u (+18,38% Yield)
What's your thoughts on Lazio -0.75 n Bologna pk?
I'd never play Lazio on such spread at that price. Cosmi (Siena coach) is a die hard Roma fan, I highly doubt he'll allow his players to not play until gassed out even if behind by 1 or 2 goals during the match.
Bologna... bah, I don't know. I actually see no particular edge on this line, a draw is very likely imho.
Please, take note I heavily rely on value, not on the most likely outcome without looking at the odds offered as many so called punters.
Speaking about Bologna: Gilardino as everytime scorer is offered @3.00 looks like huge.
Vaughany likes a lot Diamanti, for what I saw from his posts, and he's @3.00 too (less value but always an interesting player).
Day isn't looking very good but at least Gilardino prop was correct...
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