1. #281
    FightinsFan
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    Strong analysis on Pescara..took them +1..thx SA

  2. #282
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    Quote Originally Posted by FightinsFan View Post
    Strong analysis on Pescara..took them +1..thx SA
    Glad it was useful for someone!

    I'm so disappointed because in my opinion Samp really deserved the draw and they played a superb match. Anyway the idea that Napoli shouldn't be so favourite wasn't bad at all.

    Sudtirol beated Carpi 2-1 but Carrarese collapsed 0-3 at home against Benevento showing an impressive lack of football capabilities.
    Luckily I had a late equalizer in Viareggio so I reduced my losses. Still one match (tomorrow) in a definitely bad weekend for me.

    TSA 2012/2013 ITALIAN SOCCER RECORD
    21 W - 11 V - 16 L (56.76% SR)
    +4.75u (+12,84% Yield)

  3. #283
    hotelis
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    i am not following this thread, but im glad there is such a quality thread with good writeups. you and vaughany can really nitpick these games best of luck sirs!

  4. #284
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    Thanks a lot hotelis, I really appreciate.

  5. #285
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheSportsAnalyst View Post
    Speaking about Bologna: Gilardino as everytime scorer is offered @3.00 looks like huge.
    Vaughany likes a lot Diamanti, for what I saw from his posts, and he's @3.00 too (less value but always an interesting player).
    Wow, quite a few surprising results this wknd! Bologna thrashing Catania 4-0! Amazing how Napoli couldnt score against 10 men of Catania for 90 minutes then Bologna go and put 4 past them! Atalanta getting whooped at home as well. And my Juve getting a great win against Roma, I thought we might struggle against them yesterday!

  6. #286
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    Hi Vaugh, what's up pal?
    As you know I'm a Samp fan... watched both the games (Juve and Samp): don't worry, Napoli has not mentality to win scudetto.
    Neither now nor never.

  7. #287
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheSportsAnalyst View Post
    Hi Vaugh, what's up pal?
    As you know I'm a Samp fan... watched both the games (Juve and Samp): don't worry, Napoli has not mentality to win scudetto.
    Neither now nor never.
    Yo, Im all good fella. Yeah, Napoli might beat us when we play them away if Cavani is on form, but I'm sure they will continue to slip up in some games that they should win like Catania last weekend.

  8. #288
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    Today I saw italian pay-tv bought all Sidney matches for next season (starting Oct 6th)... Not a single weekend without DelPiero, even if miles and a ocean away!
    Can't wait to see him in action again!

  9. #289
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheSportsAnalyst View Post
    Today I saw italian pay-tv bought all Sidney matches for next season (starting Oct 6th)... Not a single weekend without DelPiero, even if miles and a ocean away!
    Can't wait to see him in action again!
    ha awesome.


    Im thinking about playing Varese PK at 8/11 tonight. Or do you think this is a bit of a sucka bet?!

  10. #290
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    Usually I look at the lines max 2/3 days before any match and when I did my reasoning on that one I came up thinking there were a lot of most interesting opportunities. At the time the price was around 1.85, now the little value I saw is gone.
    As you know I always pick my plays on value, so it's not I don't think Varese will win tonight (they deserved to be favs) but I'm pretty scared about how they collapsed at home against Verona last week.
    And Cesena, while being a very poor team, have improved their attitude/mental approach since Bisoli was appointed as manager (1-1-1 record).

    Instead I'm fascinated by Pro Vercelli price (1.85 on Pinny) for the +0.5 but I don't know if it was only for their decent results so far compared to Cittadella's ones (7 points for Citta, 6 for Pro). In fact Cittadella is very good at home and they have a more than decent offense and the H2H is pretty shameful for Pro: 3 losses in 3 matches so far.
    It's more a feeling than a number based pick so this will be probably not so reliable.

  11. #291
    Vaughany
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    ha I stayed away from Varese in end...I'd forgot about the Verona wooping the other day so when you reminded me of that it was all I needed to keep me away!

  12. #292
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    ha I stayed away from Varese in end...I'd forgot about the Verona wooping the other day so when you reminded me of that it was all I needed to keep me away!
    Glad you did! Varese was outclassed in first half... They're not more than a decent playoff contender right now.

  13. #293
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    Tomorrow is a huge Coppa Italia Lega Pro (like Coppa Italia but for third/fourth tier clubs only) day.

    As usually teams lineup second string players and/or face matches with different motivations and it's not uncommon some punter get his field day in this kind of situation.
    I hate cups matches and I'll never bet heavy on such a friendly contest but, just for fun (and degens), I'll read a much newspaper as I can and I'll surf all fans sites to try cap at least two/three (max four) games with apparently canned lines.
    Once again: these plays will not be inteded as official but I'll wager a few $ (the ones I had thanks to the Bears) just to avoid mid-week boredom.

    See you tomorrow guys.

  14. #294
    Vaughany
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    Nice one bud

  15. #295
    BigBurk
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    Great work being done in here! Good to see you are making profit on just one league mostly!

  16. #296
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    Thank you Burk!

    I took an hour of my morning to look back at my posts and see if I made some mistakes calculating the P/L and actually I did.
    But what came as a surprise is the difference between my performances on Serie A/B/1a Div against the ones on the OU+2a Div.

    Let's take a look:

    TSA 2012/2013 SERIE A/B/1st Div (Only Sides)
    20 W - 6 V - 12 L (62.50% SR)
    +8.29u (+25,91% Yield)

    TSA 2012/2013 TOTALS + 2nd Div
    1.5 W - 4.5 V - 7 L (18.75% SR)
    -5.52u (-64,88% Yield)


    The overall yield is around 7% (still decent but not worth tailing IMHO) but this great disparity is one of the reasons I've stopped capping Seconda and avoided totals.

  17. #297
    BigBurk
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    I hear you! I've been avoiding total for a while now (just one every now and then) since my hit rate was like 35% at most. Sides have proven to go a lot better so I'm sticking with the working formula!

  18. #298
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    Let's waste some money (just for fun)...

    #Campobasso to Win @2.50 [Paddy Power] (2nd string players for the home team but Sorrento will play a full U20 team)
    #Nocerina +0 @1.94 [SBObet] (Nocerina will play to win this game, they need it. Andria with many 2nd string players)
    #Trapani -1 @1.80 [DafaBet] (Trapani will rest some players but this will be more than a friendly, considered they'll not play next sunday. Hinterreggio, with a lot of turnover, is more than a step behind them).

    GL!

  19. #299
    Vaughany
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    Can't resist playing Verona PK away at Padova at +108. Padova are pretty solid at home, but they have played some of the weaker teams so far in Grosetto (drew 1-1), Empoli, and Reggina, while Verona have pulled off impressive away victories at solid teams like Varese and Vicenza. I just dont see Padova having enough fire-power up front to outscore Verona, who you know are going to score at least once with Cacia in form, and likes of Rivas, Halfreddsson, Bojinov, and Gomez-Taleb as attacking options. Think worse case scenario is a draw

  20. #300
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    Can't resist playing Verona PK away at Padova at +108. Padova are pretty solid at home, but they have played some of the weaker teams so far in Grosetto (drew 1-1), Empoli, and Reggina, while Verona have pulled off impressive away victories at solid teams like Varese and Vicenza. I just dont see Padova having enough fire-power up front to outscore Verona, who you know are going to score at least once with Cacia in form, and likes of Rivas, Halfreddsson, Bojinov, and Gomez-Taleb as attacking options. Think worse case scenario is a draw
    Totally agree Vaugh.
    I'll not put this one into my weekly plays just because since now I prefer to pick just two per week for Serie B (except for extraordinary value circumstances) and I already found two other matches.
    But this would be my third, in order of appeal, absolutely.
    Decent value at +108, considering Verona is heating up and the one with Padova is considered quite a rivalry game (but it isn't a classic derby actually). Friday primetime spot and national television broadcast would be other reasons to watch this game closely.
    Verona is the fav in this game, despite being on the road.

  21. #301
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    Italy » Serie B » Brescia - Lanciano (Lanciano +0.75 @1.970)

    Brescia (t-8th, 9pts) will host Lanciano (t-10th, 7pts) in this week 8 matchup.
    Lombardi, because of the talented and experienced players they've, will be for sure the favourite next saturday, but these odds for Lanciano (as usually happens this year for that squad) are absolutely not realistic.
    Lanciano is a newly promoted team but they already shown they are able to play in Serie B with decent results. Their main problem is a total lack of traditional offense and this has been a problem since in the past they weren't able to reach deserved draws or to win well played matches.
    Anyway they're able to score in all but one matches disputed so far. In addition to this, despite not having a single star in their usual lineup, they've a solid defense for a team coming off Lega Pro, which allowed just 7 goals in 7 matches (and they conceded two just once).
    Considering the spread bookies are offering this is a key factor in my opinion, because Brescia on paper have a powerful attacking duo (Corvia-Caracciolo) but they struggled finalizing: in fact Brescia love to play the ball but many times this resulted in just a dry ball possession.
    Lanciano isn't very fun to watch but no matter how they always find a way to make a positive result, even when they don't play so well.
    Brescia have won by 2+ goals once this season and considering the mix of good defense/hustle/luck Lanciano usually put in their games I'm very curious to see what will happen here.
    Lanciano on the road already played three games collecting 1 win, 1 draw (in Padova) and 1 loss and more often than not they nullified opponent offense.
    Half of the stake back in case of a 1 goal loss.

  22. #302
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    Italy » Serie B » Bari - Vicenza (Vicenza +0.5 @1.990)

    Bari (t-10th, 7pts*) will host Vicenza (t-8th, 9pts) in this week 8 matchup.
    This should sound crazy since Bari is 3/3 at home this season but it has also to be said that Vicenza have lost just one match out of three played away from home, all of which against strong home team like Spezia, Juve Stabia and unbeaten Sassuolo (Vicenza is the only team which have stopped neroverdi so far).
    I'm amazed by how Vicenza played well this season, despite being sure to play in Serie B just three days (!!!) before the season opener.
    Vincenza have quality players like left wing Semioli and former Catania player Gianvito Plasmati but also extremely efficient ones like Malonga (5 goals in 6 matches, every time he strikes he scores).
    Last match they dominated Grosseto but won only with a late goal thanks to Pinardi, while Bari suffered a loss against Verona.
    As I said Vicenza already stopped good teams like Sassuolo or Brescia, whilst Bari have yet to face a non-relegation zone type of team at home (and maybe their home record is a little bit inflated for this reason).
    I've decided to pick this game not because I think Bari won't be able to score (too much power they shown this season and Vicenza defense had its problems too) but because I expect a very open game, with Vicenza able to play ball and make at least a goal (11 made this season so far, they were scoreless just in Sassuolo).
    If they want to win and, possibly, reach Serie A playoff Bari have to refine their ability to find the net because they're a team with a lot of shots (they average 17/game, 6 on goal) but they've just a slightly above average offense in terms of goals scored.
    I like the over at +EV too.

    *Bari have a 7 points deduction.

  23. #303
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    Italy » Serie A » Pescara - Lazio (Pescara +0.5 @1.950)

    Pescara (t-11th, 7 points) will host Lazio (t-3rd, 12pts) in this week 7 Serie A matchup, next sunday.
    I don't like these odds at all. Lazio is for sure a very strong team, playing a nicely effective type of football thanks to their new coach Petkovic, but Pescara seem to have absorbed Serie A impact and since a couple of games they appear definitely ready to fight with everyone.
    Abruzzesi no name team came off two wins against relegation contenders, actually collected with two very good performances on the field: apparently they're not so offensive as in their first matches but more mature and smart.
    Lazio bounced back in Siena after two disappointing games against Genoa at home and in Napoli (a really hurting 3-0 loss) but this is enough to say biancocelesti have some weaknesses.
    I like the way Pescara is able to be dangerous despite they have some issues on scoring (and they'll miss Weiss, Cagliari and Palermo killer).
    It also has to be noticed that Lazio played tonight against Maribor with at least 5 predicted starters (Konko, Dias, Gonzales, Candreva and Hernanes), so they've 95' minutes of additional fatigue.
    If we analyze the two losses Pescara suffered at home so far this season these came against Inter in the opener (and we could easily pull out this match for many reasons) and against Sampdoria (which already shown how in good form they are).
    For both teams this could be like a driver licence test: Lazio need to demonstrate they've fully recovered from back to back defeats, Pescara still have to show if they're able to compete against much stronger teams.
    Playing in Pescara could make a huge difference in the outcome of this match.


    Italy » Serie A » Siena - Juventus (Siena +1 @1.950)

    Siena (t-19th, 2 points)* will host Juventus (t-1st, 16pts) in this week 7 Serie A matchup, next sunday.
    I can see your faces right now. No I'm not crazy, and this is a more logical pick than it could appear at a first glance.
    First: Siena is still unbeaten at home this season in 3 matches. Not a very useful trend since they faced middle table teams (not poor ones anyway) but it's a start.
    Second: Siena allow just 1.0 goal per match despite having already faced offense n.4 (Inter) and n.5 (Lazio) of the league. Not bad huh?
    Third: Since Juventus comeback in Serie A the H2H say 1W 2P 5L but they lost by 2+ goals just twice in 8 matchups (and one was in Turin), it makes 25%.
    More: Last season, when Juventus have a strenght comparable to this one, those matchups went 0-1 and 0-0.
    Siena is full healthy for this game, instead Juventus (which played a mid week cup match against Shaktar spending a lot of energies) will miss suspended starting defender Bonucci.
    Speaking clearly in my opinion this line have a huge value, despite the outcome is very unlikely: I see Juventus winning by 1 but not so easy.
    Juve cannot simply win all the games since now to the end of the season (they've already been stopped in Firenze) and the +1 for Siena is an enormous bank saver for the ones interested.
    Match against Lazio last week convinced me to pick this team: down 0-2 on the road, after being punished by a non existent penalty Siena didn't give up for a single moment and finally scored against a quite perfect Lazio defense.
    They started from -6 this year and they are almost already out of the relegation zone: this is huge. They've attitude, they've decent players to reach the safe zone and they've a coach who knows he's playing his probably last big chance to show how good Serse Cosmi is.

    *Siena have a 6 points deduction

  24. #304
    Vaughany
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    I like these plays, especially Siena +1. I'm not as confident in Pescara without Weiss though. If he was playing I'd consider it.
    Siena could def get a draw against us on their home ground. We haven't beaten them by more than one goal since 2009 and I think that was last game of season when Siena had nothing to play for while we needed to win to secure Champions League football. And as I predicted, that Shakhtar game was a lot tougher than most expected and some players will be tired for sure. Pirlo especially seems to be either drained or just out of form. Juve still have the depth to win this game, but I think it will be 1-0 or 2-1 rather than a blowout

  25. #305
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    Italy » Prima Divisione Girone A » Carpi - AlbinoLeffe (AlbinoLeffe +0.5 @1.910)

    Carpi (t-6th, 7 pts) will host AlbinoLeffe (17th, -3 pts)* in this week 6 Prima Divisione Girone A matchup.
    One week ago backing Albinoleffe to win was clearly a bad call, since they're so good stopping big teams as they're bad to finalizing and taking wins against poor squads.
    But now it's about the ability of lombardi to gain at least a point in Carpi and, as I said, they're pretty effective in battling versus strong built clubs.
    Carpi is facing a question mark: are they just a middle table team or in a low quality division like this one they could (and maybe should) try to pull the trigger to reach playoff zone?
    If they win today they could consider themselves pretty back on track, but in case they'll fail to rumours about the real value of this team could start raising and in the past Carpi shown they didn't face pressure and expectations very well.
    On the other side Albinoleffe had almost erased their point deduction, and like I said for Siena: when a small team is able to do so after a few weeks it's a clear sign of a very positive attitude. I'm sure they'll fight hard to preserve their 0 in losses column.

    *Albinoleffe have a 10 points deduction


    Italy » Prima Divisione Girone A » Lumezzane - FeralpiSalò (FeralpiSalò +0.5 @2.040)

    Lumezzane (t-8th, 6 pts) will host FeralpiSalò (t-8th, 6 pts) in this week 6 Prima Divisione Girone A matchup.
    Lumezzane had more than one problem finding a win in this troubled start of season, considering they publicly stated they will try to win the division (but in my opinion they didn't have the roster to).
    Despite this bookies still see them as a playoff contender (mainly because they won just once but they lost once too, in the opener).
    Feralpi is coming off a bye week so they'll be rested and really focused on this match; they already faced two big teams in this league like Cremonese and Trapani, but won both of the remaining two matches played. They play solid and they have a strong attitude to not giving up.
    I think they could have at least 50% (if not more) of chances to not lose and they're offered at 2.04 right now so, also considered the high number of draws Lume already had (4 in 6 matches) this should be interesting.


    Italy » Prima Divisione Girone A » Como - Lecce (Como +0.5 @1.960)

    Como (t-4th, 8 pts) will host Lecce (1st, 15 pts) in this week 6 Prima Divisione Girone A matchup.
    If I have to indicate one club which could stop Lecce in their tremendous run to Serie B at the moment (and not only) I'd pick Como.
    Como is unbeaten in this season (2W 2D and 3 straight cup wins) and they came as little surprise since they could count on good players in their roster like Giampà, Ardito and former young star Michael Cia.
    They won in Reggio Emilia last week giving Reggiana a lesson on how to play football and they already stopped a good club at home like Porotgruaro (still unbeaten too).
    Lecce, which came off straight from Serie A, was built to win the Serie B tournament, but because of match-fixing scandal they were relegated to Prima Divisione. They still have Serie A players and apparently they didn't suffered any problem of approaching an unknown division.
    Anyway in Como players and coaches are not only convinced to be able to stop Lecce but even to have chance of winning, because no team is unbeatable on the long run.
    Como is a decent place to play football and the home factor could play its role.
    Lombardi will have Donnarumma (3 matches/4 goals) back on their lineup after a couple of matches missed due to an injury.


    Italy » Prima Divisione Girone B » Barletta - Latina (Latina +0 @2.310)

    Barletta (15th, 2 pts) will host Latina (T-2nd, 9 pts)* in this week 6 Prima Divisione Girone B matchup.
    Square players, the ones who look only at the league table, looking at these odds on their bookies probably should have thought: "FREE MONEY ON THE AWAY WIN!!!"
    No, it isn't so easy. Barletta is a very hot place to play and win in there is all but easy. So far, in two matches they've lost only to Perugia, which was indicated as one of the favs of this division.
    So I don't think this is an easy one. Speaking clear I don't think any of this week matchups in Girone B is easy to predict.
    But the DNB option seem to offer us a great opportunity in case of a draw: Latina is given at a huge +EV price and their path so far was absolutely impressive.
    They've beaten Catanzaro (a good mid-table opponent), Nocerina on the road, Sorrento and Paganese (which is definitely a playoff contender), surrendering only in the opener against crazy Pisa. They conceded a late equalizer in Viareggio last week or it would be the 5th season win in 6 matches.
    This is an extremely solid team which is improving week by week I think they should get much more love from the bookies.

    *Latina have a 1 point deduction


    Italy » Prima Divisione Girone B » Frosinone - Avellino (Avellino +0.25 @1.920)

    Frosinone (t-2nd, 9 pts)* will host Avellino (1st, 11 pts) in this week 6 Prima Divisione Girone B matchup.
    Avellino is a crazy team and Avellino is a very crazy city. The former is able to win or lose against every team, the last one is capable to have mood swings like no other.
    The win in Benevento maybe have boosted a little bit too much their standings position (and maybe my consideration for them in my mind) but they're division leaders, it's a matter of fact.
    The strenght of schedule so fare was absolutely in favour (e.g. harder) of Avellino, and a draw is definitely not out of reach of "Lupi". Frosinone will miss key defender Mirk Gori due to suspension.
    Anyway I've to say this is a pick in which I barely see value so I don't have a lot of confidence as in previous ones.

    *Frosinone have a 1 point deduction


    Best of luck everyone and have a good weekend!

  26. #306
    Vaughany
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    Early goal for Verona... DAI CAZZOOOOOOOOOOO!

  27. #307
    Vaughany
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    Damn equaliser. Not looking good...Padova all over them by looks of it

  28. #308
    Vaughany
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    Typical...Padova score with last kick of the game

  29. #309
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    Padova played well, in the middle of the field they were everywhere but Verona is somewhat strong.
    Padova was lucky to get the win, a draw should be the correct result. Very lucky.

  30. #310
    TheSportsAnalyst
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    Horrible weekend for me.

    2-6-1 record with a decent dose of bad luck.
    Strange weekend overall in italian football.


    TSA 2012/2013 ITALIAN SERIE A/B/1st Div (*Sides Play Only)
    22 W - 7 V - 18 L (55.00% SR)
    +4.51u (+11,28% Yield)

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