[TheSportsAnalyst]

2012/2013 football season in Italy is about to start, after (one more time) a summer full of match fixing scandals.
Betting on italian leagues, especially the lower ones is considered very risky and even the major bookies usually raise the juice on serie B or Prima Divisione.

I'm italian, I follow italian football 24/24 since the age of 10 and I see many italian guys making profit from betting on italian leagues.
So I've decided to start this season-long thread to collect my thoughts about Serie A, Serie B, Prima Divisione and even Seconda (when available on decent bookies) and share them with SBR community.

I'll avoid 1X2 because is widely known the draw in Italy is usually underpriced and this affects the whole payout on the 1/2 odds.
I'll avoid the O/U too because of abuse of this betting way in recent match fixing scandal.

I'll focus myself on the AH and I will try to stay in positive at the end of the year, but my main goal is to provide fresh news about every match I'll bet on and to answer any question you'd like to ask me during the season about players, coaches, morale and so on...

So good luck everyone and !

[TheSportsAnalyst]

1. Modena v Hellas Verona (Serie B)
Pick: Hellas Verona +0 @1.78 (Sbobet)

Hellas is one, if not two, step ahead of every other team in Serie B, having built a team to win a competition slightly less harder than last years.
Modena probably have yet to find the rythm because of the recent changes they suffered (many players left, board changed and so the coach) and they finally collapsed against Reggina in Coppa Italia after a decent effort during 90'.
Verona's price is pretty high IMHO but the main question about them is the bad attitude they shown in the past when under pressure and it's not uncommon to see big teams struggling in serie B at the start of the season.
The DNB gives me a pretty safe option at decent odds, just in case Verona won't be able to find the net.
No clues on other bets (U/O, BTS, G/NG).

[Vaughany]

Good stuff, I'm a big Juventus fan (despite being English!), have been since I was 12 so about 13 years! I was gutted after Del Piero was let go at end of season, but it's been softened by some great signings in Isla, Asamoah, Pogba and of course Giovinco coming back is awesome! Be shocked if we dont win the league again this year unless Milan and Inter make some quality signings before window closes.

Also, regarding the Over/under bets, I was planning on betting the over on quite a lot of Roma games. Zeman is renowned for playing attacking football, and with the Brazilians they've bought and dodgy defence anyway I could see them scoring and conceding a few in a lot of matches this season. Was going to play the over in the Catania game this wknd, and also the over in Palermo vs Napoli game


I was thinking of playing Udinese PK at +190 away at Fiorentina this wknd, but maybe they'll be a bit tired from the Braga game?

Also Sampdoria +1 asian handicap away at Milan at +123 might be worth a play?

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Good stuff, I'm a big Juventus fan (despite being English!), have been since I was 12 so about 13 years! I was gutted after Del Piero was let go at end of season, but it's been softened by some great signings in Isla, Asamoah, Pogba and of course Giovinco coming back is awesome! Be shocked if we dont win the league again this year unless Milan and Inter make some quality signings before window closes.

Also, regarding the Over/under bets, I was planning on betting the over on quite a lot of Roma games. Zeman is renowned for playing attacking football, and with the Brazilians they've bought and dodgy defence anyway I could see them scoring and conceding a few in a lot of matches this season. Was going to play the over in the Catania game this wknd, and also the over in Palermo vs Napoli game


I was thinking of playing Udinese PK at +190 away at Fiorentina this wknd, but maybe they'll be a bit tired from the Braga game?

Also Sampdoria +1 asian handicap away at Milan at +123 might be worth a play?

On the over/under I'll reply later because I hadn't analyzed the match in details even if I agree about the over as a lock in Roma's games (not only b/c of Zeman but also because they had big problems on defense last year).

Since Udinese good draw in Braga Fiorentina priced dropped of course and I'm pretty tempted taking the X2 but it's a very risky pick because I think no one really knows the real value of La Viola considered they've changed about 8 players of the starting 11. Guidolin is also known for his attitude to perform a very hard turnover when he has to face two matches in 3/4 days so I actually don't know if playing Udinese is worth a try.
Basically they're playing a whole season in a single match next week at Friuli...

Sampdoria is my fav team and this is one reason to not follow me on them () but the deeper I look at the odds for this match the more I'm convinced this AH line is set damn well.

[Vaughany]

1. Modena v Hellas Verona (Serie B)
Pick: Hellas Verona +0 @1.78 (Sbobet)

Hellas is one, if not two, step ahead of every other team in Serie B, having built a team to win a competition slightly less harder than last years.
Modena probably have yet to find the rythm because of the recent changes they suffered (many players left, board changed and so the coach) and they finally collapsed against Reggina in Coppa Italia after a decent effort during 90'.
Verona's price is pretty high IMHO but the main question about them is the bad attitude they shown in the past when under pressure and it's not uncommon to see big teams struggling in serie B at the start of the season.
The DNB gives me a pretty safe option at decent odds, just in case Verona won't be able to find the net.
No clues on other bets (U/O, BTS, G/NG).

I like this bet as well. Verona have signed some decent players...Bacinovic could be one of the best midfielders in Serie B. Modena seem to be relying on a lot of young players on loan from Serie A clubs

[BigBurk]

Is the Italian league really worthy of betting on with all these scandals going on?

[Vaughany]

Is the Italian league really worthy of betting on with all these scandals going on?

I guess now would be the least likely time that these teams would fix games because a)start of season and b)not smart to fix a game while authorities are hot on everybody's asses regarding match fixing!

[TheSportsAnalyst]

2. Fiorentina v Udinese (Serie A)
Pick: Udinese +0.5 @1.87 (Sbobet)

Speaking about value... As I said previously Udinese probably will focus on CL retour match and considering the opponent (a brand new Fiorentina) and the fact they're on the road probably they'll not play 100% BUT in my opinion they still are a very good team and with the double chance being offered @1.87 I jump on it with no regrets.
I don't think tomorrow the price will raise so much then I'm taking it now on Sbobet but Pinny offers same odds too.

[PHyldahl]

you live in Italy?

value on Udinese?

[TheSportsAnalyst]

3. Bari v Cittadella (Serie B)
Pick: Bari -0.25 @1.90 (PinnacleSports)

Bari is always tough to face at home and they've to recover quickly from the starting -5 points because of the match fixing scandal. Maybe they're not already at the top (in fact they'd some problems in Coppa Italia against Perugia) but this not means they deserve so little credit as bookies give them.
Cittadella is a prototypical Serie B team: fast, offensive and very unpredictable. This is one of the reason for the reduced (-0.25) handicap in my choice: in case of a not so unlikely draw we could have half of our stake back.

4. Empoli v Reggina (Serie B)
Pick: Empoli +0 @1.80 (BetVictor)

I really don't understand these odds: Reggina will have a lot of missing players for this match (included big striker Bonazzoli) and for sure on paper it isn't a better team than Empoli.
If someone of you is looking for a draw I advise to study closer this match because it looks like a serious candidate for an X (but finally I give a slight advantage to toscani).

5. Juve Stabia v Livorno (Serie B)
Pick: Livorno +0.25 @2.08 (PinnacleSports)

Livorno is one of the best teams in Serie B with its powerful offense and I like chances bookies offering on them in Castellammare tomorrow.
In my opinion the over is absolutely overpriced here and the BTS seems like a lock considering Livorno players on the offense and the fact Juve Stabia collected at least one goal at home quite 90% of the time last year.
Home team with some key missing on defense too.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

you live in Italy?

value on Udinese?

Yep.
Value betting means you estimate bookies given chances are < than actual % to cover.
Now bookies give Udinese around 53,50% to cover the spread (+0.5) while I actually think they're well above this %.
In betting the only way I have to make some profit is to find value and be patient over the long term. I don't care about likely results or similar, if I place a wager on a 1.01 team I'll be burned 100% of times (tested ).
But it's my opinion of course.

[Vaughany]

Like the Liverno play for sure...they beat Juve Stabia 2-1 last year even though they had Sini and Barone sent off after 53 minutes and it was away from home. Also, Juve Stabia have lost Marco Sau who scored 21 goals last season, and Andrea Raimondi has gone to Padova. Livorno meanwhile have kept hold of Dionisi, Paulinho, Filkor, and one of the best midfielders in Serie B in my opinion in Andrea Luci (although Im biased as he was a great youth player at Juve!). I do worry about them in defense however, although they've got Emerson from Reggina who isnt bad, and Gemiti who played in almost every game last season for Novara in Serie A so he should be a solid signing at this level.

[Vaughany]

Yep.
Value betting means you estimate bookies given chances are < than actual % to cover.
Now bookies give Udinese around 53,50% to cover the spread (+0.5) while I actually think they're well above this %.
In betting the only way I have to make some profit is to find value and be patient over the long term. I don't care about likely results or similar, if I place a wager on a 1.01 team I'll be burned 100% of times (tested ).
But it's my opinion of course.

Yeah, cant argue with this play. Do you know if Jovetic is starting or even in the squad what with the rumours of Man City bidding for him? I assume he is. They've bought some decent players for sure in Hamdaoui, Pizarro, Borja Valero, Mathias Fernandez, Aquilani, and Gonzalo Rodriguez, but I guess it's going to take them some time to adapt. Fiorentina have got a good record at home against Udinese...won 3-2 last season and 5-2 before that and 4-1 in 2010.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Like the Liverno play for sure...they beat Juve Stabia 2-1 last year even though they had Sini and Barone sent off after 53 minutes and it was away from home. Also, Juve Stabia have lost Marco Sau who scored 21 goals last season, and Andrea Raimondi has gone to Padova. Livorno meanwhile have kept hold of Dionisi, Paulinho, Filkor, and one of the best midfielders in Serie B in my opinion in Andrea Luci (although Im biased as he was a great youth player at Juve!). I do worry about them in defense however, although they've got Emerson from Reggina who isnt bad, and Gemiti who played in almost every game last season for Novara in Serie A so he should be a solid signing at this level.

You know italian football very well Vaugh!

[nyyanks773]

I like the Udinese play, also I know Inter sucked last year but they should be able to handle pescara -1/2, also I like Bologna +1/4 and a little bit napoli -1/4. of course one of these will end in a draw but what do you guys think?

[Vaughany]

3. Bari v Cittadella (Serie B)
Pick: Bari -0.25 @1.90 (PinnacleSports)

Bari is always tough to face at home and they've to recover quickly from the starting -5 points because of the match fixing scandal. Maybe they're not already at the top (in fact they'd some problems in Coppa Italia against Perugia) but this not means they deserve so little credit as bookies give them.
Cittadella is a prototypical Serie B team: fast, offensive and very unpredictable. This is one of the reason for the reduced (-0.25) handicap in my choice: in case of a not so unlikely draw we could have half of our stake back.

4. Empoli v Reggina (Serie B)
Pick: Empoli +0 @1.80 (BetVictor)

I really don't understand these odds: Reggina will have a lot of missing players for this match (included big striker Bonazzoli) and for sure on paper it isn't a better team than Empoli.
If someone of you is looking for a draw I advise to study closer this match because it looks like a serious candidate for an X (but finally I give a slight advantage to toscani).

5. Juve Stabia v Livorno (Serie B)
Pick: Livorno +0.25 @2.08 (PinnacleSports)

Livorno is one of the best teams in Serie B with its powerful offense and I like chances bookies offering on them in Castellammare tomorrow.
In my opinion the over is absolutely overpriced here and the BTS seems like a lock considering Livorno players on the offense and the fact Juve Stabia collected at least one goal at home quite 90% of the time last year.
Home team with some key missing on defense too.

Also, is Stuani available for Reggina? He could score a few goals this season

[TheSportsAnalyst]

I like the Udinese play, also I know Inter sucked last year but they should be able to handle pescara -1/2, also I like Bologna +1/4 and a little bit napoli -1/4. of course one of these will end in a draw but what do you guys think?

Did you watch Inter game yesterday?
I think odds will drop for sure approaching Sunday... Pescara is brand new and I really love how nerazzuri look like recently.
But I don't like Bologna at all, so I'll not play them. Instead I'm considering placing something on Chievo...

[Vaughany]

You know italian football very well Vaugh!

ha cheers buddy! And trust me, I'm no way near as obsessed with Italian football as I used to be...my knowledge of it nowadays is nothing in comparison to what it used to be a few years ago! I used to travel over to Italy with my father at least 3 times a season to watch Juve. Really need to head over next year and watch them in the new stadium.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Also, is Stuani available for Reggina? He could score a few goals this season

Nope. He is one of the missing players.
Other notable ones are Colombo, Ely, Castiglia and Hetemaj (and of course Bonazzoli).

[Vaughany]

Did you watch Inter game yesterday?
I think odds will drop for sure approaching Sunday... Pescara is brand new and I really love how nerazzuri look like recently.
But I don't like Bologna at all, so I'll not play them. Instead I'm considering placing something on Chievo...

yeah wouldnt be too confident in a play on Bologna neither. I assume Gaston Ramirez wont be involved due to the transfer speculation? They are also going to miss Di Vaio a lot despite him being passed his best. He was a leader in the dressing room and the talisman. Diamanti of course is always dangerous though and can be awesome on his day. Bologna did win 1-0 away at Chievo last year tho so you never know. I think draw is most likely outcome though IMO

[Vaughany]

Nope. He is one of the missing players.
Other notable ones are Colombo, Ely, Castiglia and Hetemaj (and of course Bonazzoli).

Ah right interesting....def interested in Empoli now!

[Vaughany]

Do you know if Maxi Lopez will be playing for Samp against Milan? Could see him being really motivated to score against his former club...really surprised Milan didnt sign him permanently...he was great at times last season, remember when he came on against Juve and scored a screamer!

[Vaughany]

Modena equalised against Verona and getting the better of play by looks of it on Bet365 stats

[Vaughany]

Verona down to 10 men with 10mins left...hopefully they can hang on for the draw

[Vaughany]

Ah well, I'll take the draw, stake back! Had I nice hit on Kasimpasa in Turkish league so good night anyhow...

Bet Date		Bet Type	Stake	Description	Returns
		Single To Win	£300.00	Kasimpasa - Kasimpasa v Karabukspor - Draw No Bet @ 8/13	£484.62
		Single To Win	£200.00	Kasimpasa - Kasimpasa v Karabukspor - Draw No Bet @ 8/13	£323.08

4:27am 24-Aug-12

24-Aug-12

Soccer Total

Kasimpasa/Kardemir Karabukspor (O 2.5 and 3) for Game.

+120

100.00

60.00

Put some of the profits from these on Empoli PK and Livorno PK

[BHS]

Is the Italian league really worthy of betting on with all these scandals going on?

It's always safer to bet in Italian and Spanish League over German and Dutch League.

Less surprises.

[BHS]

Good stuff, I'm a big Juventus fan (despite being English!), have been since I was 12 so about 13 years! I was gutted after Del Piero was let go at end of season, but it's been softened by some great signings in Isla, Asamoah, Pogba and of course Giovinco coming back is awesome! Be shocked if we dont win the league again this year unless Milan and Inter make some quality signings before window closes.

Also, regarding the Over/under bets, I was planning on betting the over on quite a lot of Roma games. Zeman is renowned for playing attacking football, and with the Brazilians they've bought and dodgy defence anyway I could see them scoring and conceding a few in a lot of matches this season. Was going to play the over in the Catania game this wknd, and also the over in Palermo vs Napoli game


I was thinking of playing Udinese PK at +190 away at Fiorentina this wknd, but maybe they'll be a bit tired from the Braga game?

Also Sampdoria +1 asian handicap away at Milan at +123 might be worth a play?

Are you Turkish or English?

If you are English, how did you know that Kasimpasa was going to win today? Because I played the exact same bets you have played but I lived in Turkey for 3 years. That's how I know it.

By the way, Kasimpasa were really lucky today but regardless, I was happy to win. They are going to be much better when they play with together some more.

[Vaughany]

Are you Turkish or English?

If you are English, how did you know that Kasimpasa was going to win today? Because I played the exact same bets you have played but I lived in Turkey for 3 years. That's how I know it.

By the way, Kasimpasa were really lucky today but regardless, I was happy to win. They are going to be much better when they play with together some more.

Im English, but follow certain leagues like Serie A, Turkey Superlig, Ukrainian league quite a lot. I had a bet on Galatasary against Kasimpasa last wknd and watched the game and liked what I saw of Kasimpasa. Djalma, Viudez and Kalu Uche have potential to be a very dangerous trio going forward. I played the over 2.5,3 because I thought Kas would play quite attacking at home with the aforementioned trio up front.

[Vaughany]

I've pulled the trigger on Inter at -115. I just cant see Pescara being the same without Insigne, Immobile and Verrati. Three best players all gone.

[PHyldahl]

cool cool, the flags got me confused.

Now bookies give Udinese around 53,50% to cover the spread (+0.5) while I actually think they're well above this %.

we need a number here.

[BHS]

Im English, but follow certain leagues like Serie A, Turkey Superlig, Ukrainian league quite a lot. I had a bet on Galatasary against Kasimpasa last wknd and watched the game and liked what I saw of Kasimpasa. Djalma, Viudez and Kalu Uche have potential to be a very dangerous trio going forward. I played the over 2.5,3 because I thought Kas would play quite attacking at home with the aforementioned trio up front.

Kasimpasa board were taken over with several rich business men in Turkey. Prime Minister is also from Kasimpasa so he gives favors to business-men who spends money on Kasimpasa. Therefore, several businessmen came together and they took over control of them and invested pretty good money for their first season in 1st Division.

They have 10 new players. Coach is same but they need to play together to adjust. They will be much better in few weeks.

Since you're English, what do you say about Liverpool - Man City?

[TheSportsAnalyst]

we need a number here.

In a normal game I think at least a 10%+, but considering this particular situation I think Udinese would win or draw at least 55/60% of the time.
I've to say I heard Guidolin press conference this afternoon and I'm pretty sure he want a positive result in Firenze and he'll lineup the best starting 11 to accomplish this goal.

Verona wasn't able to close the game: first half well led but in the second one Modena came back and got the deserved equalizer.
Stake back.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

I've pulled the trigger on Inter at -115. I just cant see Pescara being the same without Insigne, Immobile and Verrati. Three best players all gone.

Agree on the bet, it's worth a try.
Anyway I recommend to avoid odds under 1.80/-125, at that price would be definitely not interesting.

[PHyldahl]

In a normal game I think at least a 10%+, but considering this particular situation I think Udinese would win or draw at least 55/60% of the time.

kk. a simple 1X2 probability will get rid of that 5% swing

how did they play against Braga btw? depature of Isla and Asamoah to be seen at first sight?

[BHS]

how did they play against Braga btw? depature of Isla and Asamoah to be seen at first sight?

Not good at all.

Guidolin said, "We didn't do anything to win the match. We are so lucky to get a tie."