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So you think that I think I have non-public information, but I actually don't? Well, better you think I'm an idiot than a liar I suppose.Originally Posted by NunyaBidness
Drake will win brah, but I say that about everything, even MMA.
hmm got me worried now, flier on Drake then as back upSo you think that I think I have non-public information, but I actually don't? Well, better you think I'm an idiot than a liar I suppose.
Drake will win brah, but I say that about everything, even MMA.
Well Recari shot a 66 and is 3rd place
Ai birdied the last 4 holes looking unstoppable but just got going too late
Still like Ai for the tournament. She is 21st and really was on a roll at the end of the 1st round
Last edited by sideloaded; 10-10-13 at 10:17 AM.
got killed on this lpga tournament! Wtf happened to inbee park???
In my experience, golf is the highest variance sport to bet. Standard Deviation of a typical PGA golfer's round is about 3.5 strokes, spreads of 20 between rounds are not uncommon.
Pretty easy to beat though, if you can take the swings.
I know! I was riding the Wie fade train for a while!
golf has nothing on nascar. That shit UP and DOWN, no numbers just what my spreadsheet tells me
might as well finish it off
Inbee Park (4th Rnd) -130
Anybody got a Sony Vaio laptop? Think mine might be done for, keeps turning off randomly even when plugged in to main power outlet and doesnt charge anymore! What is the laptop to get right now fellaz? Bare in mind I wont be playing computer games like Age of Empires or anything so doesnt need to be super powerful.
age of empires wtf? is that the hot game in england? Sounds like maybe you just have a bad charger or battery. I know the charger is usually the first to go on laptops. Could also have a loose connection to the motherboard where the power connects. It's a quick solder.
the Nvidia Shield looks awesome. It's not a laptop though. But the power it has competes with any laptop. I would just look for a good deal on fatwallet and browse notebookreviews. I have an acer. Nothing special but it's solid. Sony is very overpriced.
lol It's probably the last PC game that I played a few years ago so all I could come up with!
yeah the battery is dead for sure, cant run it at all unless it's plugged in! And that was fine as I have an ipad to take around with me, but now it isnt reliable when plugged in so I guess the charger is now fuucked as well like you say.
Yeah the Acer always seems to be popular on recommendation sites.
This Nvidia Shield?!
Yeah, check the charger. Them shits crap out all the time.
If you need a casual surfing lapper, keep a look out for Dell deals. Also, keep an eye out on slickdeals.net and edealinfo.com...
I got a wicked deal on a Dell laptop last year the first week of November - there were some nice coupons or whatevs to stack on an already good deal. It might be a seasonal thing so that special may be on now or soon. I'll see what i can dig up.
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lol It's probably the last PC game that I played a few years ago so all I could come up with!
yeah the battery is dead for sure, cant run it at all unless it's plugged in! And that was fine as I have an ipad to take around with me, but now it isnt reliable when plugged in so I guess the charger is now fuucked as well like you say.
Yeah the Acer always seems to be popular on recommendation sites.
This Nvidia Shield?!
yep for $299 you get a quad core 1.9 ghz with the tegra 4 gpu with all kinds of power for graphics. Really for the price this thing would out perfrom any laptop. It's running android and has a touch screen. So you can browse and do almost anything. It also has wireless hdmi for a complete media setup if you install xbmc on it and the 1channel plugin from xbmchub.com. Blows netflix out of the water.
Nice one bud. This site scores the Samsungs highly http://www.trustedreviews.com/best_laptops
Looks like a fat Sega MEgadrive controller or sumin! Think it might be too good for what I need!
yeah it looks crazy. for regular keyboard feel check out Lenovo G580. nice price and lenovo is very well made.
Not sure if you've mentioned this book before Nunz, have you read it? Mason Malmuth - Gambling Theory and other topics
http://www.twoplustwo.com/books/gambling/gambling-theory-topics/
Yes, its a good book. Its not a great book for sportsbetting, however, its more suited towards advantage players (table games) and poker. It'll teach you some basic gambling concepts like bankroll requirements, gamblers fallacy, that sort of thing. Its certainly worth a read, but a lot of it will seem obvious now, whereas some of the concepts were revolutionary for the time (at least in gambling circles).
Also enjoyed Sklansky and Malmuth's books "Getting the Best of It", "Poker, Gaming, & Life" as well as "Gambling for a Living".
ok cheers. I probably need ones that are more specific to sportsbetting really. I'll check out the other two you mentioned though.
I may also need to "bend your ear" at some point about some theory relating to my soccer betting techniques and using Kelly as well in relation to how I tend to bet on soccer. It may be complete nonsense to you as it is quite specific to betting on soccer but you may also be able to tell me straight away if my strategy or rational is -EV or flawed in some way
Fire when ready, we could use some good discussion around here for a change.ok cheers. I probably need ones that are more specific to sportsbetting really. I'll check out the other two you mentioned though.
I may also need to "bend your ear" at some point about some theory relating to my soccer betting techniques and using Kelly as well in relation to how I tend to bet on soccer. It may be complete nonsense to you as it is quite specific to betting on soccer but you may also be able to tell me straight away if my strategy or rational is -EV or flawed in some way
Also, the best sportsbetting books are found in the investing section of the bookstore. Can't recommend Nassim Taleb enough.
Oh, oh! I've got one!
What's the most important skill you need to beat basketball, and how does beating it differ to beating NFL? Generally NFL is the more wagered-on sport by pros from what I've seen, but I don't know why. Limits aren't significantly higher, are they?
a basketball math model with a good database. NFL has the highest limits of any sport except some soccer leagues and access to asian bookies.
The skills needed to beat one sport are the same as any other. Every sport is just a series of weighted random number generators. The fact that there are people performing behind the scenes is meaningless.
There are issues such as key numbers and whatnot that are sport specific, but the tools are exactly the same.
But if you can create a model to beat basketball, you can create one to beat NFL, the sport is meaningless.
cbb was very beatable but the market is way smarter now and the greek / Pinny slashed their limits
The markets are different though. If you can beat the wnba market doesnt mean you can beat EPL or NFL.
That's mostly true. The larger the limits the tougher the sport in general. I don't know if anyone can really beat MLB. NFL is a different story, however, with so much public money on every game its very easy to beat. Easier than NCAAFB and BK even.
The best way to learn to beat sports though, is to find one sport that no one seems to care about, and figure it out. If it has $100 limits, you want in. The less experts the better.
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Like live-betting the Facebook fights? No idea on the limits, but the market is tiny.
Still can't believe you don't dabble in the stock markets... I would've bet -300 Nunya plays the stock market.
I dabble in the sense that I have some investments, but nothing I put any serious work into.
The plan is to transition to trading over time, due to no concerns of limits/laws, as well as a cheaper tax position. There is a point in mind wrt bankroll where I think it makes sense to transition over, but I am not there yet. When I reach it, I plan on dropping everything and spending a year or so learning the ropes before I jump in.
The ROI on sportsbetting, assuming you're playing multiple sports is much higher than any other form of investment. I can churn through about 15% of my roll every week at an average return of around 3% with relatively low volatility. To achieve that same income in investment requires much larger bankroll; but then it scales almost indefinitely.
Jus gotta get in with Gaberz local. Need to prove you are an elite 'capper first tho cuz
Nunya answered this. High limits and a large portion of public money make NFL the combination most beatable/highest limit sport overall.
FWIW Billy Walters was pretty critical of Wall Street in an interview w 60 min, though I got the sense he had someone do his investing for him and got taken for a ride. Seems hard to justify stock market compared to sports betting to me though, if you can make money @ sports betting, you make more, it seems.
To a certain limit that's true. It's way easier to make 6 figures a year at sportsbetting than it is in the stock market. But it is extremely difficult to make 7 figures at sports. And the guys who can make 7 figures at sports could make 8 in the stock market.
You have an unlimited ceiling in the market.
If I have to throw out all my 5 and 10% edge spots in order to concentrate on getting volume, you're looking at getting maybe a 1 - 2 % edge, on possibly $1,000,000 a week in volume. You're barely cracking a million there in profit, now you're paying 36% + 15% taxes, have an army of guys out placing bets for you. Better margins elsewhere.
But for a young guy with a brain in his head and some money to throw around, there is no faster growth opportunity than sportsbetting.
Right, I've been busy making cash monnnaayyy on the World Cup Qualifiers, so I'll start with my rambling query relating to Kelly then ask you about other stuff after...
So basically, I would say about 70-80% of my total bets on soccer are "Team X to win draw-no-bet (or 'PK'). So means if the team I back draw I get my stake back, if they win I win, if they lose I lose! Obviously with MMA you don't really have the option of an "insurance" type bet like this as there are only 2 potential absolute outcomes for most part. I'm not sure if you do this kind of bet with any other sports where the draw happens quite often, but with soccer when I first started betting on it regularly a couple years ago I found that I was getting screwed a lot by teams conceding late equalisers, or conceding early goals and then having to claw their way back and only getting an equaliser. Consequently, I started looking at other options and found the draw-no-bet possibility, and ever since I've started focusing on using that my results have been much better (barring silly bankroll management choices but that is a separate factor/issue that may need to talk about later!). So this may be a lot simpler than I'm making it out to be, but my query really is how do you take in to account the "insurance bet" like this when using Kelly?
So for examples sake, if I wanted to bet on Man Utd Draw-no-bet @ -210 do I just use Kelly as normal? I assume obviously not as there is the potential for me to get my stake back if the game ends in a tie, but how is that possibility factored in to Kelly and how do I factor it in as a percentage of how often I think that event occurs? If I bet Man Utd to win the game straigh-up (ML) @ Evens when I think they have 60% chance of winning then it's simple to enter in to Kelly, even a retard like me can do that. But when I'm betting on the Man Utd Draw-no-bet @ -210 because I think it should be -250, how do I use Kelly Criterion for that when ultimately there are 3 potential outcomes rather than two: me winning the bet, or having stake returned, or losing; rather than just winning or losing?!
Additionally, this also raises question marks about my betting choices in general though and whether my strategy isn't actually smart and actually potentially -EV as I would perhaps make money in the longer-term just betting the Team to Win (i.e. to use same example as above: Man Utd ML @ Evens rather than the draw-no-bet option - Man Utd @ -210). But I can try and explain what I mean by that later!
Last edited by Vaughany; 10-15-13 at 04:38 PM.
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Vaughany gave Educ8d Degener8 25 SBR Point(s) for this post.