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You'remaking it more complicated than it is. The draw is a 0EVsituations so shouldn't factor into the calculations.
Just calculate the fair price of a win vs a loss only, and calculate kelly based on that. The draw factor should be taken out of each side.
Also,you're just betting moneylines vs betting Asian Handicaps in the past(1x2 lines). In the US most sports are handled as ML, with someoutliers. Sportsbetting used to offer 1x2 lines on MMA betting!
Last edited by NunyaBidness; 10-15-13 at 05:02 PM.
Ok, I thought I probably was making it more elaborate than needed to be!
In terms of me playing the draw-no-bet rather than the team to win straight up, my feeling is that I have more of an edge betting this way. I think that I can find it easier to find value in draw-no-bet lines because I can judge if a team is not going to lose better than being able to predict if they are going to win. So ultimately I am suggesting that the books are undervaluing a team's ability to not lose... I may not think there is enough value to play Man Utd to win @ Evens, but do think that there is value in the draw-no-bet at -210 for example. Now is this fundamentally wrong as ultimately I still need Man Utd to win, but with the latter I am insuring myself in case it is a draw?
And in terms of me estimating the fair price, with a draw-no-bet line, should I still just be basing it on the fair price of a win? The way I've been doing it is looking at the percentage chance that the draw-no-bet indicates, so Man Utd DNB @ -210 = 67.74% then saying to myself "do I think that there is a 32.26% chance (100%-67.74%) that Man Utd lose this game?". Now is it flawed to think like this? For instance, this weekend they are at home to Southampton, a team that has lost 11, drawn 1, won 0 in last 12 fixtures at Man Utd's home ground. My conservative estimation is that Man Utd only lose this game 20% of the time, so my instinct would be to bet the Man Utd DNB accordingly due to my perceived edge. So is it possible that there can be value in a draw-no-bet line @ -210, but not value in the team to win @ Evens?!
lol good luck trying to comprehend that!
What's the draw line? You'll probably find more value on that in this scenario.Originally Posted by Vaughany
yes, that's another valid point. The odds I was using were a just random example, but draw odds would be +250 to +260 range, if the favourite was Evens, and underdog +260 to +275 range
Can you give me your estimates as to how often MUFC win, and how often they draw?
Well I would say very loosely to win 50%, draw 30%.
But this is my quandary, in that feel a lot more confident in my estimate of how often they'd lose a game then I do of how often they'd win or draw!
Are soccer ML and 1x2 bets the same thing on UK bets, though? On US books, for hockey, the 1x2 lines are stricltly for regulation time and the MLs include overtime and shootouts.
My initial thought, with doing no analysis whatsoever would be that in 1x2 lines draws would tend towards being undervalued.
In regards to your last question, I would suggest you come up with a fair line for 1x2, and then convert it to a draw-no-bet ML and determine which is better from there.
Say, Team A wins outright 30% of the time, Team B wins outright 20% of the time and the draw comes in 50% of the time. To convert to a ML, take pA / (pA + pB) = .3 / (.3 + .2) = .6 = -150 And the inverse is obviously pB / (pB + pA) = .2 / (.3 + .2) = .4 = +150
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nunya if you were going to jail for a month or so would you close out your betting accounts and stash the money some where or leave the accounts open and find someone trustworthy to place bets for you while incarcerated?
Im confusing things by using ML in wrong context. Soccer 1x2 always just for 90 minutes + any injury time. If it is a tie it is just a point for each team and no extra time for most part unless it is a playoff game. The equivalent of a ML would be betting on "Team X to Qualify or Team X to Lift the Trophy".
Just to make sure, with your example, tht is based on what i predict rather than the books odds, right?!
In my case I would have my wife place bets for me. If there was no one I trusted, I would just leave the money in the accounts, a month isn't very long.
Is this hypothetical?
It works either way. That method will convert a 1x2 line to a proper no-vig ML, and will convert your estimated line rather vig-free or not to a vig-free estimate.
You may find, that it doesn't match up exactly with what the books have because they met get more action on the 1x2 line rather than the ML or vice-versa, or take an opinion or whatnot, but its basically the same as converting a spread to a ML in other sports, its a fair conversion.
hmm this is a no go for me. my female is the reason im going to jail
lol
PEace out homies, I will see you all november 19
Sorry to hear it man, I don't think you like me much, and I believe I suggested in the past that you were being a, and I quote, "knob", but that f-cking sucks. Look forward to having you back.
Rob gronkowski to score a touchdown -125 at dimes. He scores over 56% of the time here. He's looked great in practice for weeks. You won't get such a low price on this prop again all season. He's a td machine.
out of jail no thanks to any of you f-cks, Pun is a lawyer and still didnt get my ass out
I bet on Andrade by decision in your honour. You're telling me that didn't help at all?
good call, i went to jail losing 250 on kaufman, dumb pasty bitch. A take down wouldnt kill her. Nailed pearl gonzalez though. did any one see that fight?? WTF is the line on carmouche again? the fav???? LMAO
How could kaufman and that f\*g greg jackson watch video on eye and see her look stupid on the ground against aisling daly and not go for one takedown to secure a round.
Jackson and Kaufman are border line brain dead. Jackson is the worst wmma coach Ive seen. Only worse wmma corner in history is team reign and their bullshit game plans.
Last edited by sideloaded; 10-31-13 at 12:13 AM.
"Wrestle and throw hooks" seems to be all they teach at Reign.
You like Davis over Carmouche?
Yes, I think people can see what first time ufc jitters can do with Andrade. Davis looked like dog shit in her ufc fight, but she is a much better fighter. Perfect spot here. Cant believe Davis is the underdog here and people are betting Carmouche.
Carmouche is famous for her losses and grinding out Andrade who was gassed out and took the fight on short notice never fighting in the US before.
I think Davis is being overvalued and that Carmouche is the much better fighter. She's a very good wrestler with excellent top control, and is a good striker by WMMA standards. You're sleeping on her skills here bro.
So Davis is +188 and overvalued? Even if you like Carmouche here it's still a 50/50 fight
Davis is currently ranked number 2 in world and a legit black belt training with CSA. The top female gym in the world. Miriam Nakamoto, Sarah Dalelio, Leslie Smith. Even sleeping on Carmouche You have to bet Davis at +188. I disagree on Carmouche being a good wrestler or striker. She was out wrestled by Kaufman who isnt a wrestler and out struck by Rousey.
Rank ↑ ↓ Fighter (Age) Record Points 1
Ronda Rousey (26)
7-0-0 116 Last Fight: 2/23/2013 [UFC] vs [#8 W135] Liz Carmouche Next Fight: 12/28/2013 [UFC] vs [#9 W135] Miesha Tate 2
Alexis Davis (29)
14-5-0 79 Last Fight: 6/15/2013 [UFC] vs [#15 W135] Rosi Sexton Next Fight: 11/06/2013 [UFC] vs [#8 W135] Liz Carmouche 3
8-0-0 70 Last Fight: 4/13/2013 [UFC] vs [#9 W135] Miesha Tate 4
7-0-0 61 Last Fight: 4/27/2013 [UFC] vs [NR] Sheila Gaff 5
11-1-0 56 Last Fight: 10/19/2013 [UFC] vs [#6 W135] Sarah Kaufman 6
16-3-0 54 Last Fight: 10/19/2013 [UFC] vs [#5 W135] Jessica Eye 7
Rin Nakai (27)
15-0-1 47 Last Fight: 9/29/2013 [Pancrase] vs [#18 W135] Tara LaRosa 8
9-3-0 46 Last Fight: 7/27/2013 [UFC] vs [#11 W135] Jessica Andrade Next Fight: 11/06/2013 [UFC] vs [#2 W135] Alexis Davis 9
13-4-0 45 Last Fight: 4/13/2013 [UFC] vs [#3 W135] Cat Zingano Next Fight: 12/28/2013 [UFC] vs [#1 W135] Ronda Rousey 10
7-0-0 42 Last Fight: 7/13/2013 [Invicta FC] vs [#17 W135] Sarah DAlelio
Last edited by sideloaded; 10-31-13 at 01:33 AM.
Md you trolling me or thought carmouche was the underdog?
"Out-struck by Rousey". C'mon bro, let's not get too carried away.
I seriously like Carmouche here. She should be a bigger favourite, and I think Davis is worse than people think she is. She's also very inconsistent, while Carmouche is incredibly consistent, always improving, and is well-rounded with a great gastank. I think you underrate her too much because you don't like here. There are very few girls who can beat her consistently, and I don't think that Davis is one of them.
You always say I dont like a fighter. The only fighter I dislike is Rousey. Carmouche is a can. But you seem to be buying the zuffa hype despite what the video suggests."Out-struck by Rousey". C'mon bro, let's not get too carried away.
I seriously like Carmouche here. She should be a bigger favourite, and I think Davis is worse than people think she is. She's also very inconsistent, while Carmouche is incredibly consistent, always improving, and is well-rounded with a great gastank. I think you underrate her too much because you don't like here. There are very few girls who can beat her consistently, and I don't think that Davis is one of them.
Inconsistent? Yeah I know she gassed. That is why the value is on her. She isnt going to gas again. That fight was in Canada and she got nervous.
Canmouche is inconsistent. Dropping rounds to Kaitlyn Young for god's sakes.
Honestly at this point in history you're going to say A 2/1 fav. has value in 2013 in this division?
Last edited by sideloaded; 10-31-13 at 02:30 AM.
Yes. And so did you.
I don't see why you're arguing with me, though. Why does it bother you that I'm on the other side? I go where I see value brah, I assume you do the same, just because we see value in different places doesn't mean you should take it as an insult or something.
Im not insulted. I posted numbers and other information to back up the value. You just said she's better. I dont see the logic at all in the video.
I was obviously wrong about Kaufman but that was less about skill and more about Kaufman not securing the take downs like she did against Smith. I feel the break down was correct. Only one fighter was close to being finished and it was Eye.
No matter who wins it's probably going to be a fu-king close fight so no possible way you can claim you had value at -200 unless Canmouche dominates which we both know isnt going to happen.
Last edited by sideloaded; 10-31-13 at 03:47 AM.
I doubt you saw value in canmouche or even bet her. You've haven't posted about that fight at all. As soon as I said I liked a side and why you pretty much fired back a troll post of everything the exact opposite. That's why you're annoying. You dont care about this fight and probably weren't even thinking about it until I brought it up.
You are really just a piece of shit troll that is too obvious. Lets see screenshots and time stamps of the canmouche bets.
haha
hahaah
Sacko mushed the kaufman play
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